Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[justashadowof]

Come in peace one of my fav childhood movies. Dolph Lundgren was awesome

Anyone notice that when someone says they've come in peace they never have?

Need to ship out Kerfoot. 3 years later and I still don’t quite know what he does for this team. Not a great penalty killer (we have better), not a powerplay asset, not an impact player 5v5, and not particularly big or strong.

He’s also responsible for one of the biggest Leafs playoff gaffes I’ve seen in my lifetime. Get rid of him.

Don't forget the dumbass highsticking penalty Mr. Harvard took in 3rd period of the same game to put the Leafs down 2 men.

 

[Nineteen67]

Since we're about to get them shoved down our throat.

My favorite advanced stat for Murray is that he gave up the 22nd highest rebounds per save out of every goalie that played in the league last year

Which will go along great with our terrible net front D

Actually those are the stats that you want to know about.

On one hand if he’s healthy, he just might be effective enough to win a round if they get a soft matchup. On the other, he may be injured and they may not even make the playoffs.

 

[ER89]

You’re saying a lot of words and very few actually mean anything, just to get to say “your analogy makes no sense”

Do all your buddies take cost/managerial accounting courses or something? You don’t need some online devry “success can be yours even though you flunked out of highschool! Gimme your money!” Course you understand the Leafs got paid, and did not pay, for Murray.

The leafs did pay to get rid of mrazek. Like the equivalent of a 3rd rd pick. Let’s burn the place down

Actually it makes perfect sense. But you come out saying we got a starting goalie for free. Anyone who is of that viewpoint is a complete moron.

The reason being is that there is always an opportunity cost of acquiring a player, especially one with as many concerns as Matt murray. You said we didn't pay anything at first to acquire murray, and now you're moving goal posts and saying yeah we did pay a 3rd to move mraz to get murray, which is something you clearly missed previously. You are STILL not accounting for the fact that we got less than what buffalo was getting. That means we bought an asset for more than its previously decided market value.

And you're right, you can be successful if you flunked out of high school, but you definitely won't be if you can't understand basic market value, risk and reward and opportunity cost principles. Smh.

 

[CapspaceKiller]

This is the type of trade I'd expect regularly when those idiots Ferguson/Burke/Nonis were in charge. Full of panic, done rushed, based off "feel".

And the fact Dubas feels he only needs a "cheaper" backup, its like he's asking to be fired. You have to spend 3-4m now on a guy capable of playing 40 games you idiot. If you're counting on 50 games from Matt Murray, you've lost it.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

delete

 

[ShameOnYouZidlicky]

No they weren't. The team had to overpay for 3 months of Lyubushkin and move 13 spots down in the draft for bad contract signings.

I didn't call anyone names.

 

[DarkKnight]

And who don’t we sign now because of this Murray money? Is Boosh gone?

 

[Sypher04]

Good luck. After watching Dubas lose a trade to a desperate Dorion he has cemented his fate. Sabres should be in big with Samsonov.

I wanted more retention like everyone else in this deal and I don’t think it’s a clear win by any means, but I have a hard time subscribing to the idea Dubas lost a trade in which he got the only player and 2 draft picks.

At least not right now anyway.
Depends on how Murray does when he actually plays for us

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

No. It’s ballsy to say this is my guy. The one people have been dunking on for 3 seasons (although he’s been relatively good of late when healthy enough to play). The one I’m going to get lambasted by the fans and media for acquiring and say I believe it’s the play and do it. It might turn out to be a huge mistake, but you can’t argue it takes guts to make that call.

Again, being a ballsy move has no importance to whether it was smart / good move. I met you halfway already and agree its ballsy to make this move yes.

 

[Sypher04]

And who don’t we sign now because of this Murray money? Is Boosh gone?

Tbh I thought Boosh was gone anyway. I think some stupid overpays him. Like in the high 2s or maybe even more

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Don’t mind gambling on Murray. But expected 50% retention, or at least close to it.

 

[mclaren55]

They just set a franchise record for points and wins.

Everyone defending this team keeps saying that. Guess what, they did it with the best goal scorer this team, and maybe the league, has ever seen. This team did that despite Dubas, not because of him.

 

[Sypher04]

Again, being a ballsy move has no importance to whether it was smart / good move. I met you halfway already and agree its ballsy to make this move yes.

Sorry I missed the last sentence of your previous post somehow.

Well I already said whether it’s a good move will be determined over time. There are reasons to believe it can work. If it doesn’t though, I think it’s fair to say it could cost Dubas his job. It’s a huge gamble

 

[justashadowof]

And who don’t we sign now because of this Murray money? Is Boosh gone?

Hopefully the team can still subtract Holl and add Boosh back.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Whether you still agree with the decision or not, the story went Holland was trying to purposefully wring out and take advantage of Dubas' greenness and naivety
Dubas didn't walk from the deal as much as he walked from being exactly what Holland was trying to paint him to be

Again, should he have just made the deal and gotten something? Maybe.
Was that story probably slightly sensationalized by some of the press? Likely.
But there's probably some truth there too, and GM relationships/reputations do carry some weight across the league

Dubas getting nothing for Hyman really helped us yesterday. Imagine how bad the Murray deal would've been had Dubas agreed to take a 5th from Edmonton.

 

[Sypher04]

He took the riskiest goalie and is paying him 4.7m. As much as we wanted Mrazek gone, we probably would have been better off with Mrazek. We would have kept our first and had an additional 0.9m for a backup when his groin melted. If/when Murray goes down, we are probably done.

I don’t agree we’d have been better off with Mrazek, but I appreciate where you are coming from. Cap space is important. This deal should have had 50% or more (via third team) retention. I’d have happily foregone the 3rd rounder to bring in a third team to take another 50% off this. Murray at 2.34 would be far more valuable to us imo

 

[ToneDog]

I wanted more retention like everyone else in this deal and I don’t think it’s a clear win by any means, but I have a hard time subscribing to the idea Dubas lost a trade in which he got the only player and 2 draft picks.

At least not right now anyway.
Depends on how Murray does when he actually plays for us

Yup probably why Sens fans are dancing in the streets. I get taking a risk on Murray @ 3.1 because it gave you money for a better backup but blinking and accepting the extra 1.6m from a rival GM desperate to dump that contract is where he loses the trade.

We laughed at the Sens for giving Murray 3x6.25. How some can't see that Murray 2x4.68 is so wrong boggles my mind. Sorry not buying any bullshit from anybody who has anything good to say about this trade today.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Everyone defending this team keeps saying that. Guess what, they did it with the best goal scorer this team, and maybe the league, has ever seen. This team did that despite Dubas, not because of him.

Maybe, I don't think there is any way to evaluate whether that is the case reasonably though. Its not like Bunting/Kase/Kampf weren't bright spots.

Other Dubas adds of Brodie/Muzzin (had a tough year, but every year prior)/Campbell/Tavares weren't exactly small parts of the record last year either.

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas getting nothing for Hyman really helped us yesterday. Imagine how bad the Murray deal would've been had Dubas agreed to take a 5th from Edmonton.

Played hardball with the Oilers for that lousy draft pick and then turtles like some of his players to Dorion on the retention.

Not only did he screw the Leafs, well if I am the Oilers and Caps today, the price for Soup and Kuemper just went down. Good old Dubas. If anybody had a pulse at MLSEL, they would have blocked this trade and fired Dubas for proposing it. Morons from the top down.

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is an incredibly bold move by Dubas here. I completely understand the logic here though. Having Murray on a 2 year term is far less risk to our future then having Jack on a 5+ year term. It was the exact same thing with Hyman last season. As painful as it will be to see soupy go, I think letting him walk is realistically the only option for both parties. Jack deserves a good deal to set him and his family up for life, and we cannot afford to commit to a 30 year old goalie to term.

Of course, Matt Murray being our #1 carries an incredible amount of risk as well. We could easily be throwing away this season if he cannot return to form and we have no one to fill the net in his absence. I think the compensation was a little low for taking on 75% of Murray's deal, but we weren't exactly negotiating from a position of power either. We had no NHL goalies on our roster and not many options in UFA. If we were to strike out in UFA, the trade market for us would be 10x worse. At the end of the day, I honestly didn't feel comfortable giving either one of Keumper or Campbell term on a deal, so I can live with the Murray experiment. 4.69AAV is more than manageable, and we did get assets to take this risk, albeit not a crazy amount.

I will say, if you're a betting person you might want to consider a small wager on Murray for Vezina. He's going to be playing on a significantly better team and the early reports suggest he is healthy. Tremendous value

 

[4thline]

The one thing I don't get is how this move can be seen as so incredibly bad at the same time people were upset at us missing all the earlier goalie movement. Every single one of Husso/Georgiev/Vanecek are bigger risks than Murray, and teams *paid* for the privilege to take those risks.

Is it all from taking the rumoured Buffalo deal as ironclad fact and expecting similar?
General not liking the goaltending situation?

 

[justashadowof]

Best tweet



Once again Dubas is making a subjective / emotional decision with this leafs team.

It's risky and there's a chance it might work out. I just see it as a long shot.

Analytics are also very useful for post hoc rationalization.

P.S. I f***ing hate Sid the Shill. This f***er was on morning television advocating for the government stealing from and imprisoning people who had committed no crime. He can rot in hell.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Glad to see you as voice of reason. I agree on Murray having way more upside than Mrazek and I can also defend this against signing Campbell or Kuemper long term. There is way more risk doing that and I'd say mediocre upside. Kuemper or Campbell aren't good enough to warrant +5 million cap hit with 4-6 six years attached to it. In overall our long term cap situation is still good and way better than with recently signed Campbell for 5 years.

Problem with Murray is that he is injury prone and if his out we need reliable backup. We have almost 5 million tied to him, so we don't have too much room for good backup.

Problem with this trade was that Toronto was Dorion's only option, so we should have milk it even more or needed bigger retention for this price. 33% or 40% would have made difference, when we think about building new 4th line.

This trade is so hard to get, but I'll root for the Leafs forever and hope for the best. That is only thing to do at this point. Will watch free agency and then go sidelines until training camp starts. Can't defend Dubas on this one, because this is hard to rationalize, but we'll see. I hope I get fooled by this and get to eat the crow.

Murray definitely has the upside and good thing about this move is that if it's bombs it's only two years. But we're on win now mode and really has to make it count next season. Window is wide open and I don't think this is good enough move for this off season.

I'll root for Murray and hope he proves me wrong.

I would have hoped for more retention as well. That said, I like the trades Dubas has made for the most part so it seems reasonable to assume that this was the best he could do. Hard to say for sure without being a fly on the wall during negotiations but I'm OK giving him the benefit of doubt on this one.

Like you said, cheer for the Leafs forever and hope for the best. At least there's massive potential upside here so there is definitely something to hope for.

I think they needed to get 50% retention or get a 2nd instead of a 3rd/bit better sweetner - so its a loss for sure. But in fairness we're talking 1.5M in AAV or a slightly better draft pick, which isn't as consequential as people are making it out to be.

Signing Campbell to 5x5 is a bigger risk than this deal IMO. Both could easily tank - both have injury risks. The difference is if Murray flames out is easier to move 1x4.6 than it is to move 4x5mil with Campbell. Given that the Leafs need all the flexibility in the world going into the Matthews/Nylander UFA seasons, I think lining up the goalie's term is solid.

This. And that.

just came back from vacation. Left you guys alone for 2 weeks and you done f***ed up the whole team already

Flipping Mrazek for Murray and picks f***ed up the whole team? Are your brain cells still on vacation?

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m waiting until 2029 to see how that 7th rounder turned out before passing judgement.

 

[aingefan]

Like most, I’m underwhelmed with the deal, but it’s blatantly clear and obvious that the team wanted to steer clear of long term at high AAV.
Given goalie performance variance, I absolutely endorse that part of the trade.
The injury risk and recent performance is concerning.
I want to trust the fo and new goalie departments evaluation on the player, but we’ll see I guess.
Hoped for more coming back, and feel (like others have suggested) that there *has* to be another shoe to drop with Ottawa, but maybe not.
Underwhelmed but still hopeful.
On to the next part of the off-season, team overall still looks good to me.