Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Stephen]

Nothing has prevented us from building a quality goalie program, but it also takes years for a goalie program to provide internal options. Nothing Dubas did since taking over would have given us a top tier internal goalie over the past 4 years. The top tier goalies in the league today were mostly drafted 2012-2014. For all we know, we already have our goalie of the future in the system.

I don’t think a revamped goalie system would give us a new star goalie in the mix necessarily but having better evaluation and development from day would have given us better tools for the 2018 draft onwards as well as with the pro scouting and developmental system.

The idea that Dubas’ organization is still impacted by Dave Nonis is pretty bad. If a guy who hasn’t been here since 2015 is still limiting Dubas in some way, when does his era actually begin?

 

[Gallagbi]

The idea that Dubas’ organization is still impacted by Dave Nonis is pretty bad. If a guy who hasn’t been here since 2015 is still limiting Dubas in some way, when does his era actually begin?

I missed the part where he said the Dubas era hasnt begun, can you show it to me?

The point on a draft/developed goalie needing to come in 5-7 years prior seems completely logical (and accurate). But you can still question the acquisitions and development since

 

[Stephen]

I missed the part where he said the Dubas era hasnt begun, can you show it to me?

Dekes’ notion that our goalie department was still shaped by Uncle Lou and Dave Nonis would strongly imply he doesn’t yet have full authorship and quality control of the organization - despite having 4 years between taking the job and finally changing the goalie department up. Despite having the resources to do anything any time he wanted.

So what’s the statute of limitations on blaming past regimes? Dubas has been GM for almost longer than Nonis and Lou combined.

 

[hotpaws]

I missed the part where he said the Dubas era hasnt begun, can you show it to me?

The point on a draft/developed goalie needing to come in 5-7 years prior seems completely logical (and accurate). But you can still question the acquisitions and development since

this is KD's 5th season so using your timeline who is the goalie he has developed/developing who's close to being a potential starter ?

 

[Gallagbi]

Dekes’ notion that our goalie department was still shaped by Uncle Lou and Dave Nonis would strongly imply he doesn’t yet have full authorship and quality control of the organization - despite having 4 years between taking the job and finally changing the goalie department up. Despite having the resources to do anything any time he wanted.

So what’s the statute of limitations on blaming past regimes? Dubas has been GM for almost longer than Nonis and Lou combined.

Whats incorrect with the statement below that you quoted?

Nothing has prevented us from building a quality goalie program, but it also takes years for a goalie program to provide internal options. Nothing Dubas did since taking over would have given us a top tier internal goalie over the past 4 years. The top tier goalies in the league today were mostly drafted 2012-2014. For all we know, we already have our goalie of the future in the system.

this is KD's 5th season so using your timeline who is the goalie he has developed/developing who's close to being a potential starter ?

He hasnt, its a big organizational gap IMO

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don’t think a revamped goalie system would give us a new star goalie in the mix necessarily but having better evaluation and development from day would have given us better tools for the 2018 draft onwards as well as with the pro scouting and developmental system.

The idea that Dubas’ organization is still impacted by Dave Nonis is pretty bad. If a guy who hasn’t been here since 2015 is still limiting Dubas in some way, when does his era actually begin?

This is the Dubas era, but all GMs are impacted by their predecessors, and goaltending drafting and development is an area where it takes a long time to see results, which is why the top goalies in the league today were drafted 8-10 years ago. The state of our current NHL-ready internal options doesn't have a whole lot to do with what Dubas has done.

You could maybe argue that Dubas waited too long to make changes in our goalie program, but I'm not sure there was much justification for Dubas to go scorched earth on a relatively new goalie coach and program the second he was hired (especially considering we were coming off a year of great goaltending), and even last year at this time, we had Campbell performing well and our biggest issue was Andersen imploding - which seemed to be most attributable to Andersen himself.

Even if we had a top tier goalie development program sooner, that doesn't instantly make internal options appear, so I'm not sure why it's super relevant to a discussion about our goaltending next year. And if you disliked what we had previously so much, shouldn't you be optimistic with a new goalie coach and program now in place?

 

[Nineteen67]

That would have been an excellent target.

I liked him for a long time and often thought he’d be a great target. Maybe the Leafs tried to acquire him.

 

[Nineteen67]

If you actually thought that then (which is unlikely), then you weren't basing it off of anything legitimate, and none of that changes the fact that Saros isn't available.

I did and posted about it. I watched him and saw the red flags and how he was trending. It turns out that in 100% of elimination games, he’s let in a soft goal and it’s gotten to the point he doesn’t bother competing in the playoffs.

I don’t expect you to be able comprehend it.

 

[Mess]

Dekes’ notion that our goalie department was still shaped by Uncle Lou and Dave Nonis would strongly imply he doesn’t yet have full authorship and quality control of the organization - despite having 4 years between taking the job and finally changing the goalie department up. Despite having the resources to do anything any time he wanted.

So what’s the statute of limitations on blaming past regimes? Dubas has been GM for almost longer than Nonis and Lou combined.

The only reason to point fingers at the past is to cover up your own shortcomings.

As you pointed out and what was expected when you hire an analytics guru to change the world and give Leafs a competitive advantage over their competition, by having a whole department and bottomless financial budget dedicated to creating and developing your own proprietary underlying data for internal decision making purposes. Leafs have analytics and goalie consultants and coaches and development managers at your finger tips to address the goaltending issues as advisors.

We have seen ZERO evidence with Dubas decision making in net of any value of analytics based decisions, all we have is constant turnover, and read and react moves made out of desperation and not strategy, often limited by cap mismanagement issues to not making the goalie position a top priority, Much like we learned from Mark Hunter a so called scouting savant that Dubas analytics magician is all an illusion also.

This would allow you at any point to identify trade targets and make a trade for a goalie of the future even if he was drafted by another team. Endless opportunities to pry a prospect out of an organization if they have confirmed starter locked in long term, or vice versa look into acquiring their starter if they're transitioning to their goalie of the future. The salary cap also providing added opportunities to make trades etc.

Looks like Dubas has been sitting around on his hands, and waiting for Joseph Woll drafted by Lou Lam in 2016 to come and save him, because you need +5 years of development internal time to provide the answer.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Juuse Saros.

Saros is probably my current favorite goalie to watch but to my knowledge it has never been reported that he's been available at all. He likely won't be available for at least the next 2 yrs.

 

[notbias]

Spending 1/2 the teams Salary Cap on 4 forwards = 1/2 the balance of 8 forwards 6 dmen and 2 goalies or 16 starters + a couple spares = directly impacts Cup competitiveness. (ie constantly losing in round #1).

Mind telling us why there are teams at the bottom of the standings with the same cap allocation as teams who have won cups recently? Your logic makes no sense to me, if there was a perfect cap allocation it would be obvious in the standings.

 

[LeafEgo]

Mind telling us why there are teams at the bottom of the standings with the same cap allocation as teams who have won cups recently? Your logic makes no sense to me, if there was a perfect cap allocation it would be obvious in the standings.

Appropriate cap allocation is table stakes - an order qualifier not an order winner. The basics. Fundamental planning.

 

[kb]

Mind telling us why there are teams at the bottom of the standings with the same cap allocation as teams who have won cups recently? Your logic makes no sense to me, if there was a perfect cap allocation it would be obvious in the standings.

I'll do the math for that poster since there only ever seems to be one rather narrow view, so this time I will arbitrarily choose the parameters.

Last season - top 6 earners by AAV.

Tampa - $51.625 million
Toronto - $51.135 million

This needs to be added everytime someone says there is a disproportionate allocation to the top of the Leafs roster. Tampa did the same thing and I think we can all agree - the formula works.

 

[Stephen]

This is the Dubas era, but all GMs are impacted by their predecessors, and goaltending drafting and development is an area where it takes a long time to see results, which is why the top goalies in the league today were drafted 8-10 years ago. The state of our current NHL-ready internal options doesn't have a whole lot to do with what Dubas has done.

You could maybe argue that Dubas waited too long to make changes in our goalie program, but I'm not sure there was much justification for Dubas to go scorched earth on a relatively new goalie coach and program the second he was hired (especially considering we were coming off a year of great goaltending), and even last year at this time, we had Campbell performing well and our biggest issue was Andersen imploding - which seemed to be most attributable to Andersen himself.

Even if we had a top tier goalie development program sooner, that doesn't instantly make internal options appear, so I'm not sure why it's super relevant to a discussion about our goaltending next year. And if you disliked what we had previously so much, shouldn't you be optimistic with a new goalie coach and program now in place?

Maybe because I'm a goalie fan, but I've long suspected the Leafs goalie department hasn't been quite right and probably should have been dealt with way back in the day. Hopefully things are better now with the new department, better late than never. But we need to put a statute of limitations on talking about current problems on Lou, Nonis and friends.

 

[kb]

Appropriate cap allocation is table stakes - an order qualifier not an order winner. The basics. Fundamental planning.

How did Tampa win with their top 6 earners making more than the Leafs top 6 earners? So odd. Maybe top heavy is an appropriate way, especially after contracts and comparables age out?

 

[Stephen]

The only reason to point fingers at the past is to cover up your own shortcomings.

As you pointed out and what was expected when you hire an analytics guru to change the world and give Leafs a competitive advantage over their competition, by having a whole department and bottomless financial budget dedicated to creating and developing your own proprietary underlying data for internal decision making purposes. Leafs have analytics and goalie consultants and coaches and development managers at your finger tips to address the goaltending issues as advisors.

We have seen ZERO evidence with Dubas decision making in net of any value of analytics based decisions, all we have is constant turnover, and read and react moves made out of desperation and not strategy, often limited by cap mismanagement issues to not making the goalie position a top priority, Much like we learned from Mark Hunter a so called scouting savant that Dubas analytics magician is all an illusion also.

This would allow you at any point to identify trade targets and make a trade for a goalie of the future even if he was drafted by another team. Endless opportunities to pry a prospect out of an organization if they have confirmed starter locked in long term, or vice versa look into acquiring their starter if they're transitioning to their goalie of the future. The salary cap also providing added opportunities to make trades etc.

Looks like Dubas has been sitting around on his hands, and waiting for Joseph Woll drafted by Lou Lam in 2016 to come and save him, because you need +5 years of development internal time to provide the answer.

For me, the goaltending position is a sport within a sport. So if the organization can come to that realization and put the personnel in to treat it as such - and a priority - all the better. I just don't think you can have long term success and get to that championship level treating it like the unknowable position and then Moneyball it hoping for the best.

 

[Mess]

How did Tampa win with their top 6 earners making more than the Leafs top 6 earners? So odd. Maybe top heavy is the appropriate way?

Hey maybe its the top heavy all-world $9.5 mil goalie Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay verses the Leafs reclamation projects annually?

Leafs are expecting the same on ice results from cast-off reclamation projects as a true proven Cup winner and contender.

Really poor comparison.

 

[hotpaws]

Hey maybe its the top heavy all-world $9.5 mil goalie Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay verses the Leafs reclamation projects annually?

or maybe it's because Tampa didn't grossly overpay a ufa 2nd centre

 

[LeafEgo]

How did Tampa win with their top 6 earners making more than the Leafs top 6 earners? So odd. Maybe top heavy is an appropriate way, especially after contracts and comparables age out?

The Leafs are so top heavy that it starts to drop dramatically after the top three and begins to even out - against Tampa it takes until you get to six. But all of that ignores the bigger issue which is balance.

 

[notbias]

Hey maybe its the top heavy all-world $9.5 mil goalie Vasilevskiy in Tampa Bay verses the Leafs reclamation projects annually?

Leafs are expecting the same on ice results from cast-off reclamation projects as a true proven Cup winner and contender.

Really poor comparison.

Speaking of proven cup winners... we just traded for one. Unless we are only using recent stats, in which case Vasi was not so great and didn't look like a $9.5 million dollar goalie.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I miss the days where our goalie was a cause for reassurance as opposed to a cause for extreme anxiety.

it’s been 18 years since Belfour. Been a revolving door since.

 

[Stamkos4life]

I've been almost 100% accurate regarding dubas since he took over.

You and the rest of the dubas fan boys have been wrong every step of the way and yet still act so smug and self confident.

I thought after losing to the jackets you guys would stop simping for the guy.

But even after 2 more first round loses you guys are still as rabid as ever.

I mean you guys honestly thought trading Kadri for kerfoot and barrie was a huge win. Then you thought trading a 1st for an injured foligno was smart. Now you guys think our goaltending position is up graded.

It's almost like you have zero understanding of how the game works and rely solely on what you are told by the media.

 

[rojac]

I miss the days where our goalie was a cause for reassurance as opposed to a cause for extreme anxiety.

it’s been 18 years since Belfour. Been a revolving door since.

If anyone is suffering extreme anxiety over any aspect of a pro sports team, I think they may need their mental health checked out.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

If anyone is suffering extreme anxiety over any aspect of a pro sports team, I think they may need their mental health checked out.

Sometimes I’m not sure if posts like this are even worth responding to. Does everything need to be explained to the tiniest detail? Obviously I didn’t mean the type of anxiety that’s a mental health condition ffs

 

[Mess]

For me, the goaltending position is a sport within a sport. So if the organization can come to that realization and put the personnel in to treat it as such - and a priority - all the better. I just don't think you can have long term success and get to that championship level treating it like the unknowable position and then Moneyball it hoping for the best.

Every year that ends in Lost in round #1 its often the goaltending identified as a major reason for the teams failure and every offseason instead of making it a obvious priority to upgrade, its musical chairs among the leftovers and castoffs and what can squeeze into a limited salary cap budget for the position.

If the goal & objective is to get over the hump of round #1 losses, how come its treated like an afterthought and downgraded? Andersen >>> Campbell/Mrazek >> Murray/Samsonov

Now a contract dump and unqualified RFA that past teams wanted rid of by either adding to have haul away, or given away for free, have become Leafs answer to playoff success apparently. This is year #5 of the GM's term and Master-plan, that all began with a +100 point inherited team that lost in game #7 in round #1, and who's job it was precisely to improve and advance on.

That's not MoneyBall analytics that's Screwball analytics. This isn't a educated & calculated risk based on strong underlying numbers, this is hail marry plain and simple because you're all out of good ideas.

PS. My 10 year old nephew was over yesterday for a family BBQ, and I asked him if he wanted to get Matt Murray on his fantasy hockey team this year, and his response was "what the hell for, he's crappy and always hurt?". Even though he was running around in his #34 Auston Matthews jersey he couldn't be fooled into thinking this was a good idea, and it was hard to argue with his reasoning LOL.