Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

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A strong internal goalie program is helpful, but a revamped goalie program isn't something you see results from in the short term. The internal goalie options we have now would more-so be a reflection of the Nonis/Lou-era goaltending programs.

Are we really going back to Nonis now? What was preventing Dubas from building a modern goalie department June 2018? It's not like his staff has ever been short on people...
 
Mark Hunter was to amateur scouting and drafting success what Dubas has become to the GM position. All hype no substance,

Brendan Shanahan brought Dubas into the NHL, touting him as some 3 D chess-playing proponent out-of-the-box analytics guru and more and more, Dubas is revealing himself as nothing more then a checkers preferring club overseer, with player acquisitions based less on proprietary stats that would give the team an advantage via analytics, but rather simply bargain bin shopping out of desperation and endless cap management struggles out of his own doing.

Goaltending has arguably been the area that’s flummoxed Dubas the most as GM of the Leafs. The Campbell trade remains his best move but still a fail to deliver, but almost everything else has misfired: Bringing back Freddy Andersen for one last season, picking Garret Sparks over Curtis McElhinney, bringing back Michael Hutchinson repeatedly, paying Mrazek that contract and then buying his way out with draft capital, on this endless goalie carousel we find ourselves on.

Goalies brought in Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Kasimir Kaskisuo, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren & Dylan Ferguson on a PTO and now Murray and Samsonov join the list.

Will this time be different?

The Leafs will be putting their season – and the jobs of many within the organization – in Murray’s hands.

A lot is riding on the Murray/Samsonov gamble, and the goalie department needs a massive modernization that can't come soon enough.

I hope the organization can expunge the idea that "Goalies are Voodoo" and we can see the quality of conversation in the fanbase around them improve over time. Have more goalie experts comment on science of the position and not always talk about how predictive models fail to capture this or that so let's just go cheap and mitigate risk. Not good enough.
 
Dubas was definitely hired partly because of his grasp of analytics, but as He made it clear he’s not some attached-to-the-laptop computer geek. But he acknowledged that statistics played “a big part” in his methodology for building his team. ( Maple Leafs move into 21st century with hiring of whiz kid Kyle Dubas: Feschuk) Further, ...he is willing to explore and share analytics as a means to improving on-ice performance. (https://www.si.com/nhl/2014/07/22/brendan-shanahan-plays-numbers-game-kyle-dubas-hirin)

"Goaltending has arguably been the area that’s flummoxed Dubas the most as GM of the Leafs." I agree with this. Choosing Sparks over McElhinney,( both needed waivers) did back fire. Andersen couldn't win the big game Not sure how that is Dubas's doing.
"Campbell was great, but not the answer"- no qualms there.

Hutch was brought back for the expansion draft, so nothing there.
Kasimir Kaskisuo was signed for the Marlies,
David Rittch - injury insurance,
Mrazek, didn't work - that is on Dubas.

Erik Kallgren - Signed after leading Vaxjo to a league championship- nothing wrong with that.

Dylan Ferguson a 23 year signed to a PTO - That is good.
Yes, now Murray and Samsonov

We hope it is different ( we have got out of the first round of the plays for six years and before that we hadn't made the playoff for 9 of the last 10 years. )
We are definitely not following the miss-attributed definition of insanity.

Dubas does work to improve the team and is definitly not afraid of change.
 
Dubas was definitely hired partly because of his grasp of analytics, but as He made it clear he’s not some attached-to-the-laptop computer geek. But he acknowledged that statistics played “a big part” in his methodology for building his team. ( Maple Leafs move into 21st century with hiring of whiz kid Kyle Dubas: Feschuk) Further, ...he is willing to explore and share analytics as a means to improving on-ice performance. (https://www.si.com/nhl/2014/07/22/brendan-shanahan-plays-numbers-game-kyle-dubas-hirin)

"Goaltending has arguably been the area that’s flummoxed Dubas the most as GM of the Leafs." I agree with this. Choosing Sparks over McElhinney,( both needed waivers) did back fire. Andersen couldn't win the big game Not sure how that is Dubas's doing.
"Campbell was great, but not the answer"- no qualms there.

Hutch was brought back for the expansion draft, so nothing there.
Kasimir Kaskisuo was signed for the Marlies,
David Rittch - injury insurance,
Mrazek, didn't work - that is on Dubas.

Erik Kallgren - Signed after leading Vaxjo to a league championship- nothing wrong with that.

Dylan Ferguson a 23 year signed to a PTO - That is good.
Yes, now Murray and Samsonov

We hope it is different ( we have got out of the first round of the plays for six years and before that we hadn't made the playoff for 9 of the last 10 years. )
We are definitely not following the miss-attributed definition of insanity.

Dubas does work to improve the team and is definitly not afraid of change.

One would think Sanford and possibly even Viktor Alm would also have some say in those two guys as well (in addition to Elkin). Hopefully the new voices can help in that regard, because ultimately I think the coaches are the ones who are going to make whomever is there work. Briere worked to an extent, but every single goalie either crumbled under the pressure or got hurt under him, and I think it would be best for Dubas (and any GM really) to trust the guys who have to work with them than anyone else to make that decision. Not really much of a coincidence that the teams that seemingly consistently pump out great goalies have great coaches.
 
Glad you mentioned Husso (who I wanted to go after) and Varlamov (who I wanted at the deadline). At least you are willing to put the names forward.

Gibson has been regressing a bit after seeing more leather than anyone else in the league for 5 years and would be way too expensive. I think he would be worth a shot though but its a gamble. Fleury is getting old, regressing and had a brutal playoffs, Last year was the time to go for him and it wasnt a great move for who actually got him. Hellebuyck would cost a ton to acquire but I would love to get him, I prefer Samsonov to Georgiev as a backup, especially at 1.8x1 vs 3.4x3 and Lou aint letting Varlamov go as he needs his top 3 goaltending from last year (and #1 over the last 3 seasons) to hold up after he fired his excellent coach due to the trainwreck he created. I think he would have been perfect for last years run though.

There was no way in hell we would be giving Campbell a 5 year contract in a flat cap world when he sputtered out as a starter in a full season. He wanted that term and we shouldnt have matched.

Out of the names you mentioned,

Husso
Helle
Gibson
Varlamov
Murray
Samsonov
Georgiev
Campbell
Fleury

That would be my order of wants for this season. Not giving anything up (and even receiving assets), low term and only paying around 6.5 for both goalies was certainly part of the process.

The Leafs are a great team and if Murray wants another huge payday or Samsonov wants to get paid himself, they can take advantage of the situation. They both have the tools. Lets see what they can do.
Husso, Campbell and Varlamov were the best options imo. Helle is a pipe dream but obviously he would be the best best one.

Husso-Campbell was the best possible scenario for me while moving out Kerfoot to make it work salary wise.

I agree on the rest.
 
Are we really going back to Nonis now? What was preventing Dubas from building a modern goalie department June 2018? It's not like his staff has ever been short on people...
His love of flashy hi dollar forwards is what has prevented him and made tenders an afterthought
 
Nobody is saying that but he should have spent more time
, effort and money in dealing with goaltending back when he was signing up Tavares
Back when they had lost 1 game 7 and Fred was viewed as a consistent starter in his prime? Most would have locked up Fred long term then if they could and considered our goaltending solved, but injuries hit and he went through a funk here
 
Husso, Campbell and Varlamov were the best options imo. Helle is a pipe dream but obviously he would be the best best one.

Husso-Campbell was the best possible scenario for me while moving out Kerfoot to make it work salary wise.

I agree on the rest.
People are going to need to slow down on the new Hamburgler. Husso spent 4 middling years in the AHL plus one very sub-par NHL season prior to having a little run last season that ended up with him losing his job because of his playoff implosion.

And nearly $5 million/season for 3 years, does that REALLY sound like an option the Leafs "missed out on"? Campbell finished near the bottom of the league in stats, and had one good month. We all know how he handles the pressure of playoff hockey. And he got $5 x 5.

Again, people need to realize that the current tandem is in no way worse than a Husso-Campbell tandem (show me where either goalie had any sustained success in their careers like Murray did), and the Leafs current tandem has more potential upside too.

Fun fact: Murray is only 8 months older than Husso.

Husso - 27
Campbell - 30

AAV - $9.75 million combined

Samsonov - 25
Murray - 28

AAV - $6.487 million combined.
 
You will complain incessantly, but you will not go out on a limb and put your name on who they should get.

Leafs fans at their finest....

Name who this available star is to solve the issue. I will keep asking that until you answer.......which you wont, because you have been asked and ignore that repeatedly.

So I ask again, who is this goalie who will solve all the Leafs problems???
Juuse Saros.
 
When they signed Tavares, Andersen was still under contract for 3 more years.

At the time, were you suggesting the Leafs get rid of Andersen and pursue someone else?
In my opinion, Yes.

Ive said it many times that the window to win would come after Andersen based on his track record in Anaheim, the Wash series with the nail in the coffin that first Boston series.
 
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What was preventing Dubas from building a modern goalie department June 2018?
Nothing has prevented us from building a quality goalie program, but it also takes years for a goalie program to provide internal options. Nothing Dubas did since taking over would have given us a top tier internal goalie over the past 4 years. The top tier goalies in the league today were mostly drafted 2012-2014. For all we know, we already have our goalie of the future in the system.
 
His love of flashy hi dollar forwards is what has prevented him and made tenders an afterthought
You nailed it on both accounts ..

There is nothing stopping nor standing in the way of Dubas from offering William Nylander to NYI for Ilya Sorokin etc. except "We Can and We Will" his slogan and defiance to get all 4 of AM, MM, JT and WN under contract .. But trading for a quality starting goalie is a discussion for another day, because it would cost a core player to return value in return. :wg:

Spending 1/2 the teams Salary Cap on 4 forwards = 1/2 the balance of 8 forwards 6 dmen and 2 goalies or 16 starters + a couple spares = directly impacts Cup competitiveness. (ie constantly losing in round #1).

Matt Murray was a clear contract dump situation, and Leafs couldn't even afford him as an option, IF not for Ottawa retaining 25% and Leafs are still over the upper limit ( -$1,493,116) with Sandin still unsigned. The rest of Murray salary created at draft time by dumping your 1st round pick + unloading Mrazek as a contract dump first of a UFA signing to move back into the 2nd round.

So Murray @ $6,250,000 mil AAV - 25% retention ($1,562,500) = leaving $4,687,500 mil AAV - Mrazek $3,800,000 mil AAV = $887,500 balance, but with Leafs currently (-$1,493,116 mil AAV ) still over limit.

Now you re-sign your own RFA Sandin for ~$1.5 mil and you need to dump nearly $3 mil to become cap complaint (perhaps Kerfoot for futures) to afford this high risk reclamation project of Matt Murray coming off an injury plague season missing 38 games, and playing in only 20, with a SV% and GA/G that doesn't place him among the top 50 goalies last season statistically in either category as an upgrade.

Look at the hoops and hurdles Leafs need to jump through just to attempt this reclamation project !!! :help:
 
There is nothing stopping nor standing in the way of Dubas from offering William Nylander to NYI for Ilya Sorokin
Technically Dubas could try and significantly overpay for a goalie, but that doesn't guarantee the other team even agrees, and that would represent a way, way bigger risk than the risk we have with Murray that you've been arguing against this whole time.
Spending 1/2 the teams Salary Cap on 4 forwards = 1/2 the balance of 8 forwards 6 dmen and 2 goalies or 16 starters + a couple spares = directly impacts Cup competitiveness.
The only goalie we've been prevented from getting due to our cap allocation is Bobrovsky - who has been considered by many to be one of the worst signings in recent history.
Now you re-sign your own RFA Sandin for ~$1.5 mil and you need to dump nearly $3 mil to become cap complaint
No we don't. We're cap compliant on a 20-man roster right now, and have moveable pieces to cover Sandin's re-signing.
 
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This is what Dubas inherited in net with the 105 point record setting team when he was hired after 2017-18 season that lost in game #7 in round #1. Leafs 10th in GA overall with 232 GA.

2017 -18 stats

1662388578128.png

Goals Saved above expected


1662388915919.png


Entry Draft results 2016


1662389131985.png


Starter: Freddy Andersen .. playing in 66 games as a true #1
Backup: Curtis McElhinney playing in 18 games winning 11 with a 2.15 GAA and .934 sv%
Future Prospect: Joseph Woll (drafted 4th round 2016 in Matthews draft) .. Woll played 4 NHL games in 2021-22 winning 3 with a 2.76 GAA and .911 sv%.

Dubas body of work in net .. Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Kasimir Kaskisuo, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, Dylan Ferguson & now Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov + prospects.

Name a starter, backup or prospect that will outperform and upgrade on his inherited ones as Dubas enters year 5?
 
Like Dubas, I probably would have made many mistake learning on the job, but I knew goaltending was an issue when Tom Wilson scored it OT.
If you actually thought that then (which is unlikely), then you weren't basing it off of anything legitimate, and none of that changes the fact that Saros isn't available.
 
This is what Dubas inherited in net with the 105 point record setting team when he was hired after 2017-18 season that lost in game #7 in round #1. Leafs 10th in GA overall with 232 GA.

2017 -18 stats

View attachment 581859
Goals Saved above expected

View attachment 581860

Entry Draft results 2016

View attachment 581861

Starter: Freddy Andersen .. playing in 66 games as a true #1
Backup: Curtis McElhinney playing in 18 games winning 11 with a 2.15 GAA and .934 sv%
Future Prospect: Joseph Woll (drafted 4th round 2016 in Matthews draft) .. Woll played 4 NHL games in 2021-22 winning 3 with a 2.76 GAA and .911 sv%.

Dubas body of work in net .. Garret Sparks, Michael Hutchinson, Jack Campbell, Kasimir Kaskisuo, David Rittich, Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, Dylan Ferguson & now Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov + prospects.

Name a starter, backup or prospect that will outperform and upgrade on his inherited ones as Dubas enters year 5?
Im just sad were an 86 point team now. Such a shame that we wont even make the playoffs this year, right @Mess.
 
When they signed Tavares, Andersen was still under contract for 3 more years.

At the time, were you suggesting the Leafs get rid of Andersen and pursue someone else?

Trades are allowed in the NHL so while I only started talking about getting rid of Andersen with 1 year left to transition to one of the UFAs from the 2020 crop, if the GM saw something wrong in the meantime it would have been his job to do something about it.
 
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