Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Dekes For Days]

I did and posted about it. I watched him and saw the red flags and how he was trending. It turns out that in 100% of elimination games, he’s let in a soft goal and it’s gotten to the point he doesn’t bother competing in the playoffs. I don’t expect you to be able comprehend it.

I comprehend perfectly. Some of your posts from that time paint a pretty different picture, but even if you did think we should have dumped Andersen in 2017, it certainly wasn't a position based on legitimate reasons. He had just been acquired for a hefty price, he was coming off a very good year, and had helped lead us to the playoffs. It would be ridiculous to dump that because of a bad goal in a playoff game, especially since his propensity for that is knowledge from hindsight.

Not sure what any of this has to do with the fact that Saros, your suggested solution, wasn't an available option.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe because I'm a goalie fan, but I've long suspected the Leafs goalie department hasn't been quite right and probably should have been dealt with way back in the day.

Technically we did "deal with it" back in the day in 2015-2016, when we started drafting more goalies and hired a new goalie coach. That goalie coach just turned out to not be very good. But with how long goalie programs take to produce internal results, and our goaltending coming off an excellent year, it would have been weird to purge the department in 2018.

But we need to put a statute of limitations on talking about current problems on Lou, Nonis and friends.

What we need to do is attribute things to the people that it should be attributed to. Dubas can be criticized for his acquisitions or decisions, but the internal goalie options we've had over the past 4 years aren't a reflection of him.

 

[rojac]

Sometimes I’m not sure if posts like this are even worth responding to. Does everything need to be explained to the tiniest detail? Obviously I didn’t mean the type of anxiety that’s a mental health condition ffs

Hence, my smiley. I wasn't being completely serious. But I do get ired of hyperbolic statements like that.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'll do the math for that poster since there only ever seems to be one rather narrow view, so this time I will arbitrarily choose the parameters.

Last season - top 6 earners by AAV.

Tampa - $51.625 million
Toronto - $51.135 million

This needs to be added everytime someone says there is a disproportionate allocation to the top of the Leafs roster. Tampa did the same thing and I think we can all agree - the formula works.

Having a legit 1G ,1D gives Tampa a considerable advantage. Add in their work ethic and commitment and you end up with championships.

 

[Stephen]

Whats incorrect with the statement below that you quoted?

What prevented Dubas from cleaning house in the goalie department starting the moment he took over as GM if he didn’t want to be tied to Nonis and Uncle Lou personnel? Nothing stopped him from making any other series of front office and coaching moves.

Steve Briere was also hired summer 2015 when Nonis and his staff including Rick St. Croix were let go. Not even sure if he pre-dated Lou.

It would be like if Dubas forgot to fire Mike Babcock and kept blaming the previous regime which lasted a shorter total time than this current era.

 

[Gallagbi]

What prevented Dubas from cleaning house in the goalie department starting the moment he took over as GM if he didn’t want to be tied to Nonis and Uncle Lou personnel? Nothing stopped him from making any other series of front office and coaching moves.

Steve Briere was also hired summer 2015 when Nonis and his staff including Rick St. Croix were let go. Not even sure if he pre-dated Lou.

It would be like if Dubas forgot to fire Mike Babcock and kept blaming the previous regime which lasted a shorter total time than this current era.

Isnt that covered in the very first sentence of the quote?

Feels like youre trying to shift to an argument that doesnt need to be there (at least with me)

You can want a better development system and still understand the timing wouldnt help us at the NHL level this year. It would address an organizational weakness though and could greatly inprove our future.

 

[Mess]

What we need to do is attribute things to the people that it should be attributed to. Dubas can be criticized for his acquisitions or decisions, but the internal goalie options we've had over the past 4 years aren't a reflection of him.

1st goalie move made by Dubas ... Garrett Sparks IN & Curtis McElhinney on waivers OUT

Speaking on internal goalie options made by Dubas and then acquisitions and decisions here is one I noticed when I looked up Sparks #'s.

Here is Garrett Sparks season.

Here is Matt Murray last season

Spooky, with very little varience in Games, GA/G and Sv%..

 

[Gallagbi]

1st goalie move made by Dubas ... Garrett Sparks IN & Curtis McElhinney on waivers OUT

Speaking on internal goalie options made by Dubas and then acquisitions and decisions here is one I noticed when I looked up Sparks #'s.

Here is Garrett Sparks season.

View attachment 581957

Here is Matt Murray last season

View attachment 581958

Spooky, with very little varience in Games, GA/G and Sv%..

What was Sparks GSA/X that year?

 

[Dekes For Days]

1st goalie move made by Dubas ... Garrett Sparks IN & Curtis McElhinney on waivers OUT
Speaking on internal goalie options made by Dubas and then acquisitions and decisions here is one I noticed when I looked up Sparks #'s.
Here is Garrett Sparks season.

View attachment 581957
Here is Matt Murray last season

View attachment 581958

What in the world does Sparks have to do with Murray, or anything I said? Sparks was a young goalie being given an earned shot as backup. Murray is an established NHL starting goalie and two-time cup winner. The seasons you're looking at weren't even similar anyway. Sparks in 2018-2019 rocked a -11.8 GSAx compared to Murray's +3.2 GSAx last year.

 

[Nineteen67]

I comprehend perfectly. Some of your posts from that time paint a pretty different picture, but even if you did think we should have dumped Andersen in 2017, it certainly wasn't a position based on legitimate reasons. He had just been acquired for a hefty price, he was coming off a very good year, and had helped lead us to the playoffs. It would be ridiculous to dump that because of a bad goal in a playoff game, especially since his propensity for that is knowledge from hindsight.

Not sure what any of this has to do with the fact that Saros, your suggested solution, wasn't an available option.

Based on his inability. FYI, they played Boston in 2018.

 

[Mess]

Do you understand how little Murray's GSAx +3.2 really impacts his actual numbers?

Firstly GSAx is a subset of a goalies actual stats of Shots, Saves Sv% and GA/G .. Its simply subjectively tracks where shots on the ice come from, and then determines if a save should have been made or a goal happened.

Here is Murray's GSAx for 2021-22

Murray let in 60 actual goals against and based on location he should have let in 63 expected GA = + 3 saves above expected, (rounded to whole #).

So you're only talking about the impact on Murray's actual stats of +3 more goals against or making +3 extra saves (worst case scenario)

Here are Murray's Actual stats from 2021-2011

Actual Shots Against = 640 & Saves = 580 = 60 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 580 Saves/ 640 shots = .906 sv%.
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 60 .. Therefore [GA 60 / Games 20] = 3.05 GA/G

So if you adjusted Murray's # to remove those +3 GSAx to show impact if he never made those 3 saves his GA would go up to 63 .. His saves would go down by 3 to 577.
Adjusted Stats = Shots 640 & Saves 577 = 63 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 577 Saves / 640 shots = .902 sv%
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 63... Therefore [GA 63 / Games 20] = 3.15 GA/G

By Adjusting Murray's #'s to break even ie Actual Goals 63 & Expected Goals Against 63 = Expected Goals Saves above Expected = Even/ Nil.

Difference on actual stats would results in a - 0.04 sv% [ ie .906 - .902] and a + 0.10 GA/G [ ie 3.15 - 3.05]

That variance is so small even in worst case scenario if he didn't make those +3 extra saves and they actually resulted in goals instead is almost of so little consequence as to warrant little or no attention.

The GSAx stat shows Murray over the course of 20 games made 3 accumulated unexpected saves that didn't result in goals against.

 

[Gallagbi]

Do you understand how little Murray's GSAx +3.2 really impacts his actual numbers?

Firstly GSAx is a subset of a goalies actual stats of Shots, Saves Sv% and GA/G .. Its simply subjectively tracks where shots on the ice come from, and then determines if a save should have been made or a goal happened.

Here is Murray's GSAx for 2021-22

View attachment 581974

Murray let in 60 actual goals against and based on location he should have let in 63 expected GA = + 3 saves above expected, (rounded to whole #).

So you're only talking about the impact on Murray's actual stats of +3 more goals against or making +3 extra saves (worst case scenario)

Here are Murray's Actual stats from 2021-2011

View attachment 581975

Actual Shots Against = 640 & Saves = 580 = 60 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 580 Saves/ 640 shots = .906 sv%.
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 60 .. Therefore [GA 60 / Games 20] = 3.05 GA/G

So if you adjusted Murray's # to remove those +3 GSAx to show impact if he never made those 3 saves his GA would go up to 63 .. His saves would go down by 3 to 577.
Adjusted Stats = Shots 640 & Saves 577 = 63 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 577 Saves / 640 shots = .902 sv%
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 63... Therefore [GA 63 / Games 20] = 3.15 GA/G

By Adjusting Murray's #'s to break even ie Actual Goals 63 & Expected Goals Against 63 = Expected Goals Saves above Expected = Even/ Nil.

Difference on actual stats would results in a - 0.04 sv% [ ie .906 - .902] and a + 0.10 GA/G [ ie 3.15 - 3.05]

That variance is so small even in worst case scenario if he didn't make those +3 extra saves and they actually resulted in goals instead is almost so small, or of so little consequence as to warrant little or no attention.

The GSAx stat shows Murray over the course of 20 games made 3 unexpected saves that didn't result in goals against.

Thats a lot of words to avoid answering my question

 

[Cleetus]

Matt Murray will be in the Vezina conversation.... guy is going to bounce back!

 

[Stephen]

Isnt that covered in the very first sentence of the quote?

Feels like youre trying to shift to an argument that doesnt need to be there (at least with me)

You can want a better development system and still understand the timing wouldnt help us at the NHL level this year. It would address an organizational weakness though and could greatly inprove our future.

Well sure, overhauling the goaltending department this summer is best option we have and I'm optimistic to see what can happen with a new approach.

It is disingenuous to blame the state of the goalie department on the Nonis/Lamoriello eras though, as if Dubas inherited it. If you look at the dates. I'll leave it to others to decide whether Hunter, Shanahan or Dubas hired him.

Nonis was fired April 2015:

Brendan Shanahan addresses the firing of Leafs’ GM Dave Nonis and head coach Peter Horachek | Globalnews.ca

The Toronto Maple Leafs have fired general manager Dave Nonis, interim head coach Peter Horachek and Horachek's entire coaching staff.

globalnews.ca

Steve Briere was hired July 20, 2015:

Maple Leafs hire new goaltending coach, director of European scouting

The Toronto Maple Leafs named Steve Briere the team's goaltending coach on Monday.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

Lou Lamoriello was hired July 23, 2015:

Lou Lamoriello accepts 'different challenge' as Maple Leafs general manager

Longtime NHL executive leaves his post as President of the New Jersey Devils to take on Maple Leafs role

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Gary Nylund]

Do you understand how little Murray's GSAx +3.2 really impacts his actual numbers?

Firstly GSAx is a subset of a goalies actual stats of Shots, Saves Sv% and GA/G .. Its simply subjectively tracks where shots on the ice come from, and then determines if a save should have been made or a goal happened.

Here is Murray's GSAx for 2021-22

View attachment 581974

Murray let in 60 actual goals against and based on location he should have let in 63 expected GA = + 3 saves above expected, (rounded to whole #).

So you're only talking about the impact on Murray's actual stats of +3 more goals against or making +3 extra saves (worst case scenario)

Here are Murray's Actual stats from 2021-2011

View attachment 581975

Actual Shots Against = 640 & Saves = 580 = 60 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 580 Saves/ 640 shots = .906 sv%.
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 60 .. Therefore [GA 60 / Games 20] = 3.05 GA/G

So if you adjusted Murray's # to remove those +3 GSAx to show impact if he never made those 3 saves his GA would go up to 63 .. His saves would go down by 3 to 577.
Adjusted Stats = Shots 640 & Saves 577 = 63 actual goals against ... Therefore SV% = 577 Saves / 640 shots = .902 sv%
Games played = 20 .. Goals Against 63... Therefore [GA 63 / Games 20] = 3.15 GA/G

By Adjusting Murray's #'s to break even ie Actual Goals 63 & Expected Goals Against 63 = Expected Goals Saves above Expected = Even/ Nil.

Difference on actual stats would results in a - 0.04 sv% [ ie .906 - .902] and a + 0.10 GA/G [ ie 3.15 - 3.05]

That variance is so small even in worst case scenario if he didn't make those +3 extra saves and they actually resulted in goals instead is almost so small, or of so little consequence as to warrant little or no attention.

The GSAx stat shows Murray over the course of 20 games made 3 unexpected saves that didn't result in goals against.

​

 

[Gallagbi]

It is disingenuous to blame the state of the goalie department on the Nonis/Lamoriello eras though, as if Dubas inherited it. If you look at the dates. I'll leave it to others to decide whether Hunter, Shanahan or Dubas ...

Nobody did this. You're arguing with something you made up.

 

[notbias]

If the goal & objective is to get over the hump of round #1 losses, how come its treated like an afterthought and downgraded? Andersen >>> Campbell/Mrazek >> Murray/Samsonov

Often complains about injuries... think Andersen > all.... make it make sense Mess...

Having a legit 1G ,1D gives Tampa a considerable advantage. Add in their work ethic and commitment and you end up with championships.

Can anyone tell me what a legit 1D is... cause Rielly is a top 30D for sure, and probably around 15.

There is 1 Hedman in the league, he is the best D (yes he is better than Makar, although maybe not for long)

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Often complains about injuries... think Andersen > all.... make it make sense Mess...



Can anyone tell me what a legit 1D is... cause Rielly is a top 30D for sure, and probably around 15.

There is 1 Hedman in the league, he is the best D (yes he is better than Makar, although maybe not for long)

Rielly is legit. He would be on the top pairing of many NHL teams and not just TOR. He logged a lot of minutes and last season had a career high of 68 points.

As for the Murray topic:

I hope he plays well. I am not confident he will.

 

[Stephen]

Nobody did this. You're arguing with something you made up.

A strong internal goalie program is helpful, but a revamped goalie program isn't something you see results from in the short term. The internal goalie options we have now would more-so be a reflection of the Nonis/Lou-era goaltending programs.

Ok. Party on.

 

[Gallagbi]

Ok. Party on.

Uh.....did you read it?

You understand that "the state of the goalie department" is much more than just a current, viable starting goalie option that was internally developed, right?

 

[Gabriel426]

Trades are allowed in the NHL so while I only started talking about getting rid of Andersen with 1 year left to transition to one of the UFAs from the 2020 crop, if the GM saw something wrong in the meantime it would have been his job to do something about it.

I cannot agree more. If my memory serves me right, didn’t Leafs still had Cujo when they signed Belfour.
Always good to have options.

 

[Stephen]

Every year that ends in Lost in round #1 its often the goaltending identified as a major reason for the teams failure and every offseason instead of making it a obvious priority to upgrade, its musical chairs among the leftovers and castoffs and what can squeeze into a limited salary cap budget for the position.

If the goal & objective is to get over the hump of round #1 losses, how come its treated like an afterthought and downgraded? Andersen >>> Campbell/Mrazek >> Murray/Samsonov

Now a contract dump and unqualified RFA that past teams wanted rid of by either adding to have haul away, or given away for free, have become Leafs answer to playoff success apparently. This is year #5 of the GM's term and Master-plan, that all began with a +100 point inherited team that lost in game #7 in round #1, and who's job it was precisely to improve and advance on.

That's not MoneyBall analytics that's Screwball analytics. This isn't a educated & calculated risk based on strong underlying numbers, this is hail marry plain and simple because you're all out of good ideas.

PS. My 10 year old nephew was over yesterday for a family BBQ, and I asked him if he wanted to get Matt Murray on his fantasy hockey team this year, and his response was "what the hell for, he's crappy and always hurt?". Even though he was running around in his #34 Auston Matthews jersey he couldn't be fooled into thinking this was a good idea, and it was hard to argue with his reasoning LOL.

I absolutely hated the Murray acquisition but I'm willing to give it a chance to see how his rebuilt game (and hopefully better health) looks for the Leafs this season since so much is riding on it. Don't have the stomach to watch with the criticality of Year 5 Andersen. That said, to defend all the steps that led to the Leafs-Murray marriage feels like going too far out on a limb.

 

[Gabriel426]

1st goalie move made by Dubas ... Garrett Sparks IN & Curtis McElhinney on waivers OUT

Speaking on internal goalie options made by Dubas and then acquisitions and decisions here is one I noticed when I looked up Sparks #'s.

Here is Garrett Sparks season.

View attachment 581957

Here is Matt Murray last season

View attachment 581958

Spooky, with very little varience in Games, GA/G and Sv%..

I think at that time it was the right move.
Sparks just came off a great AHL season and much younger where as McBackup was getting old.
Ofcourse the gamble didnt paid off and it proved to be the wrong decision, but I doubt any GMs won’t do what Dubas did. Maybe Dubas should had kept 3 goalies for a while and see how it went.

 

[Gallagbi]

I cannot agree more. If my memory serves me right, didn’t Leafs still had Cujo when they signed Belfour.
Always good to have options.

Cujo/Potvin had overlap, but not Belfour/Cujo

 

[Gabriel426]

I absolutely hated the Murray acquisition but I'm willing to give it a chance to see how his rebuilt game (and hopefully better health) looks for the Leafs this season since so much is riding on it. Don't have the stomach to watch with the criticality of Year 5 Andersen. That said, to defend all the steps that led to the Leafs-Murray marriage feels like going too far out on a limb.

I am in the same boat with you.
I hated the Murray deal and hated the fact that the current Leafs best option is Murray. It is ridiculous to think a team as talented as the Leafs had no option in goaltending but someone like Murray.
I think Murray will do better than his past few seasons but how much is that due to the Leafs(as a lot here kept throwing def stats of the Leafs out to show Campbell is a product of Leafs Defense), and how much is due to Murray rediscover himself.
Only the playoffs will show if Murray is the right call.

Cujo/Potvin had overlap, but not Belfour/Cujo

Thanks. Too far back to remember