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Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

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TheDoldrums said:
Wait, where did Goals Saved Above Expected go? You literally just made a post yesterday using that metric to rank goalies.
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I have already posted all that earlier in the thread,

Mess said:
Just in case you didn't check a healthier Matt Murray the year prior in 2020-21 played in 27 games of the shortened 56 games season, and recorded a -15.9 GSAx placing him 95th of 98 ranked goalies. This of course only results from the CDN division and never played any USA based team.

Jack Campbell was #7th overall with a +8.4 GSAx in the All-Canadian Divison.

The larger the sample size the greater the accuracy tends to be. Maybe combining the results of he last 2 years combined for 47 games might be a more accurate assessment of Murray =-12.7 GSAx combined.

If you also include his final year in Pittsburgh playing in front of a recent Cup winner where he played 38 games in 2019-20 you will find Murray had a -20.3 GSAx or #83 of #85 total goalies. Which lead to the high powered Pens (#7OA with 86 points in 69 games) losing the #24 ranked Candiens (71 points in 71 games) in 4 games in the play-in round of 24 teams.

So the more games he plays it appears the more exposed he becomes if one evaluated GSAx over the last 3 seasons, and can't just say "bad Ottawa team excuse " because he was even worse on the Pens, then either year in Ottawa. & Ottawa's other goalie Anton Forsberg who played 46 games (double Murray) posted a +8.4 GSAx in 2021-22 (16th best overall).
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Dekes For Days said:
I wasn't ever ranking goalies by their GSAx years ago. Mess was ranking goalies by last year's GSAx, but then mysteriously switched to other years and measures for Murray and Campbell.
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So you're annoyed by him doing exactly the same thing you consistently do got it

You should be honored imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
 
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I don't really understand why keep beating this dead horse. In few months we have some idea about this on short term. At the moment some hate it, some thinks it's kind of ok and no one seems to really love it, but some can justify it under the circumstances.

Correct critique to overall handling of goaltending under Dubas and I'd say Shanny's regime, since we didn't have exit plan if Freddy fails.

We spun the wheel, like every other team on this year's goalie market.
 
deprw said:
I don't really understand why keep beating this dead horse. In few months we have some idea about this on short term. At the moment some hate it, some thinks it's kind of ok and no one seems to really love it, but some can justify it under the circumstances.

Correct critique to overall handling of goaltending under Dubas and I'd say Shanny's regime, since we didn't have exit plan if Freddy fails.

We spun the wheel, like every other team on this year's goalie market.
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It didn't help that Freddy came to camp overweight in 2020, got injured (or claimed to), then mentally and physically checked out the rest of the season. Not much different than how he closed out 21-22 with Carolina.

As for the Leafs, yeah, it's a roll of the dice for 22-23. A big one.
 
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deprw said:
I don't really understand why keep beating this dead horse. In few months we have some idea about this on short term. At the moment some hate it, some thinks it's kind of ok and no one seems to really love it, but some can justify it under the circumstances.

Correct critique to overall handling of goaltending under Dubas and I'd say Shanny's regime, since we didn't have exit plan if Freddy fails.

We spun the wheel, like every other team on this year's goalie market.
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It's the same thing every summer. Little to talk about so things just keep being repeated.

I look forward to seeing how the goalies will perform but it will always be a terrible deal.
 
ACC1224 said:
It's the same thing every summer. Little to talk about so things just keep being repeated.

I look forward to seeing how the goalies will perform but it will always be a terrible deal.
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I don't think no one cares what we got as sweetener, if Murray is legit number one goaltender for us. It is long shot and terrible risk though, but there is still that chance for that upside. Our fans would be furious if we first make highway robbery, that end up being terrible mistake. That same would apply to Ottawa fans, if Murray succeed's here.

So I don't agree that it will be always a terrible deal. It depends, because this wasn't pricy gamble for us. Ottawa paid for us to take Murray, if he goes to LTIR and Samsonov finds his form here, it can be non factor to us. Which isn't bad outcome.

There are also positive scenarios, even though it is easily dislikable deal at the moment.
 
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deprw said:
I don't think no one cares what we got as sweetener, if Murray is legit number one goaltender for us. It is long shot and terrible risk though, but there is still that chance for that upside. Our fans would be furious if we first make highway robbery, that end up being terrible mistake. That same would apply to Ottawa fans, if Murray succeed's here.

So I don't agree that it will be always a terrible deal. It depends, because this wasn't pricy gamble for us. Ottawa paid for us to take Murray, if he goes to LTIR and Samsonov finds his form here, it can be non factor to us. Which isn't bad outcome.

There are also positive scenarios, even though it is easily dislikable deal at the moment.
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While all of Leaf Nation fans are holding their collective breaths that Murray regains his heath and his form there is lots of risk here.

What IF Leafs are dealing their 1st away next year (like Mrazek) to dump the Murray's contract if he struggles and they need the cap space to go find another goalie or as you say re-sign Samsonov if he rebounds.

Murray has $15 mil in real money left on his last 2 years (of which Ottawa is picking up $3 mil with their retention) .

If Leafs get a 3rd and 7th as a contract dump and then deal MORE to contract dump him next summer, so this can get even worse all depending on Murray play this year coming off a 4 month hiatus of serious concussion.
 
Mess said:
While all of Leaf Nation fans are holding their collective breaths that Murray regains his heath and his form there is lots of risk here.

What IF Leafs are dealing their 1st away next year (like Mrazek) to dump the Murray's contract if he struggles and they need the cap space to go find another goalie or as you say re-sign Samsonov if he rebounds.

Murray has $15 mil in real money left on his last 2 years (of which Ottawa is picking up $3 mil with their retention) .

If Leafs get a 3rd and 7th as a contract dump and then deal MORE to contract dump him next summer, so this can get even worse all depending on Murray play this year coming off a 4 month hiatus of serious concussion.
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If it is worth trading down, then they might do it. If Murray regains his form and wins his third Cup, trading down from 32 would be ok, and the Leafs could keep Murray.
 
Mess said:
While all of Leaf Nation fans are holding their collective breaths that Murray regains his heath and his form there is lots of risk here.

What IF Leafs are dealing their 1st away next year (like Mrazek) to dump the Murray's contract if he struggles and they need the cap space to go find another goalie or as you say re-sign Samsonov if he rebounds.

Murray has $15 mil in real money left on his last 2 years (of which Ottawa is picking up $3 mil with their retention) .

If Leafs get a 3rd and 7th as a contract dump and then deal MORE to contract dump him next summer, so this can get even worse all depending on Murray play this year coming off a 4 month hiatus of serious concussion.
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Still there wasn't anything close to safe bet on goalie market this summer or last summer. Calculate the price of getting rid of Jack Campbell if he fails here with his 5x5million contract. Same goes with Husso, who does have 20 good games in St. Louis like Ullmark had year prior. It's a risk going with UFA or any unknown commodity goalie. Sometimes even with known commodity on different environment like Bobrovsky in Florida.

We hope we can insulate Murray with better structure and help him out with our development and medical team. We'll see. My argument was about having some possible positive scenarios and there still is. I'm not holding my breath, but I have already agreed this is huge risk and has potential to be disaster.

On some extent this same applies to every goalie on the market last two years. We spun the wheel and end up with Murray and Samsonov. I don't say we're winners or they're gonna be best solution there was. We'll see in few months.

I could dwell on negativity, but it isn't good on your health, so I'd rather be open minded and go from there. I'm not a fan, but if this was what Dubas wanted, so be it and we'll see, if this bombs it drops on Dubas and rather he fails with his guy.
 
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