Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Martin Skoula]

I guess that is the difference between Realism and Optimism.

Realism is based on facts and Optimism is based on hope,

I'm hoping Murray does well, but those are his actual numbers going in, whether you like them or not.

Shouldn't optimism have some factual bases behind it, otherwise its simply unbridled optimism?.

Maybe you could start a thread with all your "realistic" takes and keep them there instead of needing to insert them into other people's conversations.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You seem to be confusing pessimism based on cherry picking irrelevant information and ignoring important information, with realism based on the actual, relevant facts.

His "actual numbers" going in are +3.2 GSAx, which is better than all of our goalies last year.

Lol , that’s one stat.
But you do you, Cherry.

 

[socko]

Basically with Matt Murray you're relying on a 32 game small sample size playoff record from 6 seasons ago to make your judgement that he's not a big downgrade from the goalie many already determined wasn't good enough. A guy that is constantly injured.

When this backfires, Shanahan and Dubas need to go.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lol , that’s one stat.

It's one stat that's infinitely more relevant than cherry picking some win/loss records and playoff outcomes and attributing them to goalies with zero context.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's one stat that's infinitely more relevant than cherry picking some win/loss records and playoff outcomes and attributing them to goalies with zero context.

Yes it’s a good stat, but if that’s all your using it’s cherry picked, need to consider way more.
I’m sure GMs don’t look at that 1 stat, neither should you. You need to be more balanced in your cherry picking, and stop belittling other posters.

 

[leafsfan5]

I think it be very hard for Matt Murray to not exceed the very low expectations the entire hockey world has on him.

Is he the same goalie he was when he won 2 cups? no. But there is no reason to believe he cannot regain that form if he is healthy and playing behind a good team like ours. I think people need to give the guy a chance.

This isn't the monumental risk people are making it out to be. We were a combine 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek in the pipes last year, how much worse could Murr be really?

We are not just a good team, we are an excellent team. If I am a betting man, Murr returns to form. It's amazing what playing behind a good team will do for a goaltender

That's a good outlook to have for this

Murray wasn't my #1 choice, or anywhere close to it. But, we're an elite team who should be able to insulate him and allow him to get back into form. If he can get to 80% of what he was during those cup runs we have the piece in net we need to win.

The risk for me is injuries, if he can't play we're in the hands of Samsonov who is a project himself. That's concerning

 

[Sypher04]

I guess that is the difference between Realism and Optimism.

Realism is based on facts and Optimism is based on hope,

I'm hoping Murray does well, but those are his actual numbers going in, whether you like them or not.

Shouldn't optimism have some factual bases behind it, otherwise its simply unbridled optimism?.

As someone that supports "Good teams are built from the goalie out .. " then contract dump to Stanley Cup saviour is quite a bit of unbridled optimism.

I would argue most of your posts are not representing realism. Moreso picking and choosing statistics and tactics to present the most negative outlook possible.

Maybe the post I quoted isn’t the best example of it I could have found, but that’s how it all comes across eventually imo.

This said, The optimist view is usually equally based on picking and choosing what things they like, but if we’re picking and choosing what we like anyway, why not pick the reasons for optimism over pessimism? Maybe at least like once in a while? Lol. The reality is Murray and Samsonov will probably land somewhere between the outlook you paint and those who paint the opposite

 

[Twine Tickler]

The risk for me is injuries, if he can't play we're in the hands of Samsonov who is a project himself. That's concerning

Yup, that is really my only concern. I think Samsonov stylistically resembles a Mrazek style goaltender who is incredibly athletic but far too busy in the blue paint. I don't mind the acquisition of him either, I just have my doubts on him having to shoulder a heavy work load in the event of a Murray injury. To me the only question mark on Murray is if he can stay healthy, which by all accounts he is claiming to be. So fingers crossed!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes it’s a good stat, but if that’s all your using it’s cherry picked, need to consider way more.
I’m sure GMs don’t look at that 1 stat, neither should you. You need to be more balanced in your cherry picking, and stop belittling other posters.

I haven't cherry picked anything, or belittled anybody.
It's not the only thing that needs to be considered, but it's the best stat for evaluating a goaltender's performance, and one that Mess uses until it doesn't suit his argument.
Win/loss records and playoff outcomes, especially cherry picked and without context, are useless for evaluating a goaltender's actual performance.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I haven't cherry picked anything, or belittled anybody.
It's not the only thing that needs to be considered, but it's the best stat for evaluating a goaltender's performance, and one that Mess uses until it doesn't suit his argument.
Win/loss records and playoff outcomes, especially cherry picked and without context, are useless for evaluating a goaltender's actual performance.

I saw save percentages , goals saved above expected, as well as others.
Maybe you didn’t notice those, or were cherry picking the ones you wanted to list of said poster.
Have a good day.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I saw save percentages , goals saved above expected, as well as others.

Save percentage was selectively included, only when it suggested something bad. GSAx was not included, nor were any others.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Save percentage was selectively included, only when it suggested something bad. GSAx was not included, nor were any others.

Post 2706 for one example GSAx and per 60.

 

[leafsfan5]

Yup, that is really my only concern. I think Samsonov stylistically resembles a Mrazek style goaltender who is incredibly athletic but far too busy in the blue paint. I don't mind the acquisition of him either, I just have my doubts on him having to shoulder a heavy work load in the event of a Murray injury. To me the only question mark on Murray is if he can stay healthy, which by all accounts he is claiming to be. So fingers crossed!

Yeah, Samsonov has the raw, athletic tools but he has no semblance of technique in his game. It's why he allows such bad goals while also making high end saves. Maybe with our new goaltending coach we can instil some technique into his game. If that does happen, we have a future star on our hands. He's high risk, high reward

 

[Dekes For Days]

Post 2706 for one example GSAx and per 60.

We're talking about post #2723, but post #2706 is a good example of how GSAx was used until it didn't suit the argument.

 

[Mess]

Well the combined efforts of the aforementioned tendy's resulted in:

916 saves
112 GA

leading to a combined .891 sv%..... on a team that finished 4th in the NHL for total points.....

so, I am really not concerned at all about Murray replacing those 35games.... at all. Especially when you consider about 40% of Jack's starts yielded similar results

View attachment 576582

See, I see this as glass 1/2 empty and see a highly skilled offensive team (which spends 1/2 it cap to get that offense) that is built outscore its mistakes and its goaltending.

Hoping your offensive talent can mask a poorly assembled team, is a flawed strategy come playoff time.

I see this as a boat on the ocean, with holes and taking on water (shaky goaltending) , with powerful paddlers/rowers (Leafs offense) hoping you can make it back to shore before it sinks (out in round #1). Instead of addressing the reason the boat sinks, rowing harder is not smarter, because the outcome is inevitable of going down,

Why can't the Leafs not have a real goalie with strong stats, and why must we be digging through other peoples unwanted contract dumps to find our Goose that laid the golden egg to lead us to the Stanley Cup?

 

[andora]

See, I see this as glass 1/2 empty and see a highly skilled offensive team (which spends 1/2 it cap to get that offense) that is built outscore its mistakes and its goaltending.

Hoping your offensive talent can mask a poorly assembled team, is a flawed strategy come playoff time.

I see this as a boat on the ocean, with holes and taking on water (shaky goaltending) , with powerful paddlers/rowers (Leafs offense) hoping you can make it back to shore before it sinks (out in round #1). Instead of addressing the reason the boat sinks, rowing harder is not smarter, because the outcome is inevitable of going down,

Why can't the Leafs not have a real goalie with strong stats, and why must we be digging through other peoples unwanted contract dumps to find our Goose that laid the golden egg to lead us to the Stanley Cup?

Because teams dont let them go?

Not that what you are saying isnt accurate but which of these goalies have realistically been available in the past 3 offseasons

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hoping your offensive talent can mask a poorly assembled team, is a flawed strategy come playoff time.

We're not looking for our offense to cover a poorly assembled team. We're looking for our goalie to not drag down our well-assembled top offensive and defensive team.

Why can't the Leafs not have a real goalie with strong stats

Because we didn't happen to fluke into one from a mid round pick a decade ago, and teams don't trade them.

 

[Mess]

The reality is Murray and Samsonov will probably land somewhere between the outlook you paint and those who paint the opposite

What you're saying is Murray and Samsonov had really poor seasons last year which their stats support, but those stats are likely to improve and not be as bad this upcoming year. Some times a good team can mask some of its known weaknesses. We have to hope so and that if Matthews keeps potting 60 goals that will allow weak goaltending to still post wins and mask that.

Remember last years Detroit 10-7 Leafs win where Leafs goalies Campbell ( .800 sv%) and Mrazak (.750 sv%) [Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings - Box Score - February 26, 2022 - ESPN} let in 7 goals combined and Leafs still posted a win.. So if Leafs had Murray and Samsonov last year and they gave up 7, the Leafs could still win that game.

What was your optimistic approach to the Mrazek signing last year, and did it meet your optimistic expectations going in, or when reality set in and he became a contract dump that cost us our 1st round pick was there evidence that this could be the outcome? Mrazek came in with his own injury and bad play baggage and even though he came to Leafs team which is deemed a strong team it couldn't mask his .889 sv% outgoing actual results.

Between Pens and Sens in his last 3 years Murray combined sv% average is .899%, and Samsonov playing behind a 100 point Caps playoff team playing in 44 games registered a .899sv%

So what is the optimism based on that makes you believe that contract dumps and players that didn't receive qualifying offers are the answer to Leafs answer in net?

 

[ACC1224]

Because teams dont let them go?

Not that what you are saying isnt accurate but which of these goalies have realistically been available in the past 3 offseasons

It's up to the GM to figure that out.

 

[saltming]

I guess that is the difference between Realism and Optimism.

Realism is based on facts and Optimism is based on hope,

I'm hoping Murray does well, but those are his actual numbers going in, whether you like them or not.

Shouldn't optimism have some factual bases behind it, otherwise its simply unbridled optimism?.

As someone that supports "Good teams are built from the goalie out .. " then contract dump to Stanley Cup saviour is quite a bit of unbridled optimism.

Stating numbers and history are facts. Saying the future will be the same as the past, as it brings a negative slant, is pessimissim.
Optimism, would say the future will be bright.
Realism would acknowledge that the future is not set and can go either way, so let's wait and see.
Your posts are strong in pessimissim, coupled with facts and sprinkled with optimism.
Overall they are pessimistic but I do not see the balance of realism in them

 

[andora]

It's up to the GM to figure that out.

100% - but to the best of his knowledge - or any of us

the last three years when was one of these goalies potentially/reported/rumored to have been available. I supposed you could put Bobrovksy in there however he proved too expensive at the time (thank god)..

 

[rocketman588]

Murry played 27 games in 2020-21 with a record 10-13-1 and played 20 games in 2021-22 with a record of 5-12-2 . for bottom feeder Ottawa

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good. - For a team near the top of the league

I must add.

Anton Forsburg was 22-17-4 with a better save percentage (also 3-4 with a better save% but obviously small sample)

For the same team...

 

[LeafEgo]

100% - but to the best of his knowledge - or any of us

the last three years when was one of these goalies potentially/reported/rumored to have been available. I supposed you could put Bobrovksy in there however he proved too expensive at the time (thank god)..

Pretty rare it ever happens - for good reason - although Freddy was available last off-season

 

[rocketman588]

Except what you seem to think is "realism" is actually pessimism based on cherry picking irrelevant information and ignoring important information, and what you seem to think is "optimism" is actually "realism" based on the actual, relevant facts.

His "actual numbers" going in are +3.2 GSAx, which is better than all of our goalies last year.

And the year before that he was the worst goalie in the league and 5th on the Ottawa senators. In this metric ( Jack was 7th)

He still wasn't even the best goalie on the Ottawa senators in this metric either year

Guess we should have just picked up Garrett sparks and Zach fucale both champions of the xgsa/60 shit you're trying to pedal to show he's good at hockey. It seems to very much favor guys with low number of games that had a hot streak which was exactly Murray last year before he fell apart and got injured again.

We're paying the not best goalie on the Ottawa senators almost 5 million a year with a tight cap squeeze


Someone who also comes with a massive injury history and whose scouting report is has issues moving side to side and weak glovehand. Both of which are things I definitely don't want from my goalie

Even with using your stat there were significantly cheaper options that had better years

 

[Mess]

Because teams dont let them go?

Not that what you are saying isnt accurate but which of these goalies have realistically been available in the past 3 offseasons

The St. Louis Blues have traded goaltender Ville Husso to the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for the No. 73 pick in the 2022 NHL Draft

He was tied for 6th in sv% with .919, and had finished 9th in Goals saved above expected +13.5 with a with 2.56 GA/G (12th best) while winning 25 of 40 starts.

That is one example of a goalie coming off a real strong season that just got traded for a 2nd round pick.