Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Ianturnedbull]

At this point, we can belly ache all we want, but what is done is done and now we just need to see how it plays out. What more can really be said that hasn't in 3000 posts?

We can concentrate on Samsonov now.

 

[Golden_Jet]

If Murray is a top ten goalie in this league, this will be good trade if his top tier goaltender in the playoffs this will be a great deal. In the end Ottawa paid us to take him and there is retention which takes into cheaper end of starting goaltenders. If he pans out it's good read those picks a side, who cares what they paid for us to take him, if his a real deal.

It still is a gamble and not a good trade in this situation all things considered, since this is mostly cap dump by Ottawa.

Have to see how he performs, but let's say he outplays Husso by fair margin and is pushing into top10 on stats and wins playing 55 games. Is that bad deal then? I don't think so, but is it likely? I don't know, seems like not many people think that happens, so it's a long shot.

Dubas chose Murray and we don't know if there was any chance to get him cheaper or with better assets. If his answer to our goalie woes I don't care about it.

I understand why people are skeptical, I am too. It wasn't good trade, but it can end up to be.

Most he’s ever played in career is 50 games.games.

 

[Mess]

More like:

Injured Goaltenders?

____________

I don't mind the situation. I just don't like how we got here in the first place.

I like Murray and I'm hoping for the best (not like Leaf fans have any other choice), however his concussion history does worry me.

Every time he gets into a collision in the crease, we might have to hold our collective breaths.

He last played a game March 5th, and was hoping to get back on skates just recently.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs just have to hope that Matt Murray is not this year's version of Petr Mrazek.

There are lots of similarities that might scare one into thinking Déjà vu.

- Mrazek played in only 20 games due to injury and poor play last season, winning only 10 games .. Matt Murray played in only 20 games for the same reasons and won only 5 games.

- Mrazek was placed on NHL waivers, cleared and played games in the AHL.. Murray was also placed on waivers, cleared and played AHL games .. Both players just 6 months ago nobody wanted either the player nor the contract as they were trending out of the NHL, and even claimed for free was too high a price to pay.

- 1 year later Mrazek was a contract dump with Leafs 1st, Murray also a contract dump with retention and draft picks to unload it,

If Leafs find themselves in similar territory again next summer, and are now looking at dumping Murray's contract, it shouldn't come as too a big surprise seeing the similarities here going in.

What are the odds if Mrazek stayed that he would have turned his career around, probalbly about the same one would place on Murray going in?

Once bitten, twice shy !! But when you're playing with fire you're more than likely going to get burned.

Goaltenders?

And the Flames with Markstrom thought they had it made in the shade with a top 2 goaltender.

And the Avs won with a good goaltender.

 

[socko]

Matt Murray's career numbers (0.911) aren't as good as Campbell's from last year (0.914), which was supposedly a down year with the mid-season slump and reported rib injury.

For the record, if my job was on the line, I strongly prefer Campbell.

 

[Mess]

And the Flames with Markstrom thought they had it made in the shade with a top 2 goaltender.

And the Avs won with a good goaltender.

NYR vs Carolina & TB vs Florida in Eastern Conference Finals .. Colorado vs TB for Stanley Cup.

When playoff results follow goalie trending in terms of "Goals saved above expected". Avs won with a top goalie in this category and Caps dumped all their goalies to grab this goalie thinking they have it made in the shade now.

Defense wins Championships and that starts with goaltending making the key and unexpected saves. Those were your top 5 serious Cup contenders last year.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected 2021-22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[LeafEgo]

Though not quite. The Murray trade happened before free agency had even started. The only other major trade that happened before then would have been Husso - which the Leafs likely could have upped Detroit's offer if they had wanted.

So while it's certainly still a huge question mark about whether Murray will be any good. I don't think it's that strange that he was likely the Leafs main (or at least one of the main) targets. Especially given that Dubas' had apparently attempted to trade for him earlier when he was on the Pens (Dubas' wanted him in the package for Kessel)

Going into the draft there was MAF, Georgiev, Husso, Campbell, Kuemper, Vanacek, Mrazek, Murray, Varly, and Gibber in play (maybe more).

When we took Murray he was the only option left.

Most options disappeared via trade/signings but also Gibbers agent squashed rumors of his potential availability to TO, Lou shut down Varly speculation, and Campbell/Keumper were spoken for - even the fans knew that.

I don't doubt Murray was on a list, but I don't buy that he was our main target. We deployed tactical patience, and paid for the time through poor value in the eventual trade - which was higher days previously, and almost lost Murray himself to another team during the wait.

 

[Fogelhund]

Going into the draft there was MAF, Georgiev, Husso, Campbell, Kuemper, Vanacek, Mrazek, Murray, Varly, and Gibber in play (maybe more).

When we took Murray he was the only option left.

Most options disappeared via trade/signings but also Gibbers agent squashed rumors of his potential availability to TO, Lou shut down Varly speculation, and Campbell/Keumper were spoken for - even the fans knew that.

I don't doubt Murray was on a list, but I don't buy that he was our main target. We deployed tactical patience, and paid for the time through poor value in the eventual trade - which was higher days previously, and almost lost Murray himself to another team during the wait.

We can find ways to complain all day, but MAF chose to stay in the States,

Georgiev trade assets were fine, but then three years at $3.4 mil, for a guy who is incredibly inconsistent, and was buried by his teammates stats, doesn't seem like a great move to me... as a backup option, I was interested... but thought the value was well below $3.4 mil. (Sheshertskin .935 2.07 vs. Georgiev .898 2.92)

Husso ... 3 years at $4.75 mil.... do I even need to dissect why this wouldn't make sense for us?

Campbell... again, do I need to dissect why the Oilers signing wasn't good? 5 years at $5 mil... after he's proven he isn't good enough here, isn't mentally strong enough, and injured often.

Mrazek.. we gave away

Varly never moved.

Gibber never moved, wasn't interested in leafs

Vanecek has been a mediocre player, who has been terrible in the playoffs. 3 years at $3.4 mil? Would you have given him that?

I mean, there wasn't a good option out there. Either you overpay, for too long mediocre talent.. and I'm not saying Murray is good.. but every option signed at 3-5 years, wasn't that good.. Look at it... not a good choice in the bunch, some mediocre, to unproven players... we took the one with the shortest contract in Murray, that was moved... and that's all I have to say about that.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Going into the draft there was MAF, Georgiev, Husso, Campbell, Kuemper, Vanacek, Mrazek, Murray, Varly, and Gibber in play (maybe more).

When we took Murray he was the only option left.

Most options disappeared via trade/signings but also Gibbers agent squashed rumors of his potential availability to TO, Lou shut down Varly speculation, and Campbell/Keumper were spoken for - even the fans knew that.

I don't doubt Murray was on a list, but I don't buy that he was our main target. We deployed tactical patience, and paid for the time through poor value in the eventual trade - which was higher days previously, and almost lost Murray himself to another team during the wait.

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray was a main target because of term. It sounds like that's the reason why we didn't have serious contract talks with Soup. All those options listed had risk with term. If Murray falters, we can at least walk away in 2 years instead of being stuck with someone for 5.

 

[rocketman588]

If Murray is a top ten goalie in this league, this will be good trade if his top tier goaltender in the playoffs this will be a great deal. In the end Ottawa paid us to take him and there is retention which takes into cheaper end of starting goaltenders. If he pans out it's good read those picks a side, who cares what they paid for us to take him, if his a real deal.

It still is a gamble and not a good trade in this situation all things considered, since this is mostly cap dump by Ottawa.

Have to see how he performs, but let's say he outplays Husso by fair margin and is pushing into top10 on stats and wins playing 55 games. Is that bad deal then? I don't think so, but is it likely? I don't know, seems like not many people think that happens, so it's a long shot.

Dubas chose Murray and we don't know if there was any chance to get him cheaper or with better assets. If his answer to our goalie woes I don't care about it.

I understand why people are skeptical, I am too. It wasn't good trade, but it can end up to be.

You can't be a top 10 goalie in the league if you're not even the best goalie on the Ottawa senators

 

[LeafEgo]

We can find ways to complain all day, but MAF chose to stay in the States,

Georgiev trade assets were fine, but then three years at $3.4 mil, for a guy who is incredibly inconsistent, and was buried by his teammates stats, doesn't seem like a great move to me... as a backup option, I was interested... but thought the value was well below $3.4 mil. (Sheshertskin .935 2.07 vs. Georgiev .898 2.92)

Husso ... 3 years at $4.75 mil.... do I even need to dissect why this wouldn't make sense for us?

Campbell... again, do I need to dissect why the Oilers signing wasn't good? 5 years at $5 mil... after he's proven he isn't good enough here, isn't mentally strong enough, and injured often.

Mrazek.. we gave away

Varly never moved.

Gibber never moved, wasn't interested in leafs

Vanecek has been a mediocre player, who has been terrible in the playoffs. 3 years at $3.4 mil? Would you have given him that?

I mean, there wasn't a good option out there. Either you overpay, for too long mediocre talent.. and I'm not saying Murray is good.. but every option signed at 3-5 years, wasn't that good.. Look at it... not a good choice in the bunch, some mediocre, to unproven players... we took the one with the shortest contract in Murray, that was moved... and that's all I have to say about that.

I don't disagree with any of that. You left out Kuemper which was probably the best pick up - assuming the Caps are at least as comfortable with his health as Leafs are with Murrays. Husso would have been no worse.

But, the point was the 'He was our guy!' story was understandably fabricated after the fact. It was actually more of a scramble which is why we had no leverage in the end (Dubas concurred publicly) and why so many were shocked by the trade value.

We started with a legit #1, got too smart with a 1.6M/backup replacement plan, and when that imploded we found ourselves in a corner. Now hoping on a prayer with a cap-dump/AHL replacement plan.

It's not about trying to complain all day, but after biblical levels of failure and a suspect offseason a lot of honest discussion is going to include complaints - it comes with the territory.

 

[rocketman588]

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray was a main target because of term. It sounds like that's the reason why we didn't have serious contract talks with Soup. All those options listed had risk with term. If Murray falters, we can at least walk away in 2 years instead of being stuck with someone for 5.

The big issue is that part of the reason we're afraid of term is that we're setting up for Matthews and marner to get paid boatloads of cash in two years.

If they have an 8 year deal 4x4.5/5 for Jack isn't even an issue

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't disagree with any of that. You left out Kuemper which was probably the best pick up - assuming the Caps are at least as comfortable with his health as Leafs are with Murrays. Husso would have been no worse.

But, the point was the 'He was our guy!' story was understandably fabricated after the fact. It was actually more of a scramble which is why we had no leverage in the end (Dubas concurred publicly) and why so many were shocked by the trade value.

We started with a legit #1, got too smart with a 1.6M/backup replacement plan, and when that imploded we found ourselves in a corner. Now hoping on a prayer with a cap-dump/AHL replacement plan.

It's not about trying to complain all day, but after biblical levels of failure and a suspect offseason a lot of honest discussion is going to include complaints - it comes with the territory.

5 years at $5.25 mil .. yikes. Colorado, who just won the cup with him said... No Thanks, he isn't worth that, and they'd rather bet on Georgiev. Kuemper is a decent goalie, but I think over rated some, and not worth that money. Washington is going to regret this.

I don't think Murray was our guy, I think they looked at the landscape, and saw crap... All would have been crap decisions... would Kuemper at 5 x $5.25 made you happy?

 

[LeafEgo]

5 years at $5.25 mil .. yikes. Colorado, who just won the cup with him said... No Thanks, he isn't worth that, and they'd rather bet on Georgiev. Kuemper is a decent goalie, but I think over rated some, and not worth that money. Washington is going to regret this.

I don't think Murray was our guy, I think they looked at the landscape, and saw crap... All would have been crap decisions... would Kuemper at 5 x $5.25 made you happy?

It sounds like you might be in agreement with my only argument made so far vis-a-vis Murray priority and trade result/negotiations.

Its not imperative that we find something to argue about, but Kuemper at 5x5.25? I dunno, there are degrees of happy. That might have been the best option to be had so far this off season for an all in contender - that we know about. Far from ideal though.

Ideally we have Freddy, failing that a better replacement strategy these last 48 months, failing that a stronger play at Gibber, failing that a stronger play at a Varly type, failing that we have this past offseason where not much could be done.

 

[Buds17]

Matt Murray's career numbers (0.911) aren't as good as Campbell's from last year (0.914), which was supposedly a down year with the mid-season slump and reported rib injury.

For the record, if my job was on the line, I strongly prefer Campbell.

I imagine that Dubas is betting on playoff Murray more than anything. It's undoubtedly a risky proposition based on most recent history, but Murray certainly was able to come up clutch once upon a time.

 

[deprw]

You can't be a top 10 goalie in the league if you're not even the best goalie on the Ottawa senators

It was last season in bottom feeder. If you can't believe in one's ability to improve and get better, then you can't. I'm not saying that he will become top10 goalie, I'm saying that if he become, that it will be a good trade. Said later on that I understand why people are skeptical, I am too, but it isn't impossible that Murray is way better here than in Ottawa for many reasons.

I think Anton Forsberg's NHL career was totally written off earlier and now they kept him.

Most he’s ever played in career is 50 games.games.

Jack Campbell has played 49 games, Ville Husso has played 42 games in the AHL. Murray has played 50 games in the NHL and 53 in the AHL. Alexander Georgiev haven't played over 40 games in any league, Pavel Francouz 49 games in the AHL.

Murray has played 49 games in regular season and 12 in the playoffs. It isn't that likely that he plays more than 50 games next season, but we'll see. Stats are stats.

Players that were actually available to us are the ones we should compare him to. His gamble like anyone else on the market.

I don't think there is nothing new in this discussion. We're spinning the wheel with Murray and it's yet to be seen how it turns out, but there is a chance that he can redeem himself here. I don't think it's a huge chance but at least he has shown abilities that we have lacked here for over five decades.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It was last season in bottom feeder. If you can't believe in one's ability to improve and get better, then you can't. I'm not saying that he will become top10 goalie, I'm saying that if he become, that it will be a good trade. Said later on that I understand why people are skeptical, I am too, but it isn't impossible that Murray is way better here than in Ottawa for many reasons.

I think Anton Forsberg's NHL career was totally written off earlier and now they kept him.


Jack Campbell has played 49 games, Ville Husso has played 42 games in the AHL. Murray has played 50 games in the NHL and 53 in the AHL. Alexander Georgiev haven't played over 40 games in any league, Pavel Francouz 49 games in the AHL.

Murray has played 49 games in regular season and 12 in the playoffs. It isn't that likely that he plays more than 50 games next season, but we'll see. Stats are stats.

Players that were actually available to us are the ones we should compare him to. His gamble like anyone else on the market.

I don't think there is nothing new in this discussion. We're spinning the wheel with Murray and it's yet to be seen how it turns out, but there is a chance that he can redeem himself here. I don't think it's a huge chance but at least he has shown abilities that we have lacked here for over five decades.

I was responding to poster that thinks he’ll play 56 games.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think it be very hard for Matt Murray to not exceed the very low expectations the entire hockey world has on him.

Is he the same goalie he was when he won 2 cups? no. But there is no reason to believe he cannot regain that form if he is healthy and playing behind a good team like ours. I think people need to give the guy a chance.

This isn't the monumental risk people are making it out to be. We were a combine 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek in the pipes last year, how much worse could Murr be really?

We are not just a good team, we are an excellent team. If I am a betting man, Murr returns to form. It's amazing what playing behind a good team will do for a goaltender

 

[deprw]

I was responding to poster that thinks he’ll play 56 games.

You quoted me, but it is fair critique to point out those earlier seasons. It is fact that he has never played 55 games and most probably won't ever reach that, since there is two or so goalies that play 60 or plus games per season and it is common trend that you don't overplay your starting goaltender.

It's hard to predict what will happen with Murray and it's part of the critique with him.

 

[Mess]

This isn't the monumental risk people are making it out to be. We were a combine 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek in the pipes last year, how much worse could Murr be really?

We are not just a good team, we are an excellent team. If I am a betting man, Murr returns to form. It's amazing what playing behind a good team will do for a goaltender

Murry played 27 games in 2020-21 with a record 10-13-1 and played 20 games in 2021-22 with a record of 5-12-2 .

So in his last 47 games (over 2 seasons) = record 15-25-3 with a combined .899 sv%.

When he last played for Pens in 2019-20 he appeared in 38 games with a 20-11-5 record with an .899 sv%. then the #5th ranked Pens lost in 4 games in the play-in round to #24 Montreal.

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good.

 

[Tarmore]

Murry played 27 games in 2020-21 with a record 10-13-1 and played 20 games in 2021-22 with a record of 5-12-2 .

So in his last 47 games (over 2 seasons) = record 15-25-3 with a combined .899 sv%.

When he last played for Pens in 2019-20 he appeared in 38 games with a 20-11-5 record with an .899 sv%. then the #5th ranked Pens lost in 4 games in the play-in round to #24 Montreal.

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good.

Murry played 27 games in 2020-21 with a record 10-13-1 and played 20 games in 2021-22 with a record of 5-12-2 . for bottom feeder Ottawa

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good. - For a team near the top of the league

I must add.

 

[Sypher04]

Murry played 27 games in 2020-21 with a record 10-13-1 and played 20 games in 2021-22 with a record of 5-12-2 .

So in his last 47 games (over 2 seasons) = record 15-25-3 with a combined .899 sv%.

When he last played for Pens in 2019-20 he appeared in 38 games with a 20-11-5 record with an .899 sv%. then the #5th ranked Pens lost in 4 games in the play-in round to #24 Montreal.

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good.

You are consistently the most glass half empty person I have ever encountered. It’s like any time anyone dares to say something even mildly optimistic, you show up to give us every possible (and often slanted/overstated) reason as to why it’s destined to fail.

 

[Mess]

You are consistently the most glass half empty person I have ever encountered. It’s like any time anyone dares to say something even mildly optimistic, you show up to give us every possible (and often slanted/overstated) reason as to why it’s destined to fail.

I guess that is the difference between Realism and Optimism.

Realism is based on facts and Optimism is based on hope,

I'm hoping Murray does well, but those are his actual numbers going in, whether you like them or not.

Shouldn't optimism have some factual bases behind it, otherwise its simply unbridled optimism?.

As someone that supports "Good teams are built from the goalie out .. " then contract dump to Stanley Cup saviour is quite a bit of unbridled optimism.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The combined 23-11-1 with Woll, Kallgren and Mrazek is looking pretty good.

Well the combined efforts of the aforementioned tendy's resulted in:

916 saves
112 GA

leading to a combined .891 sv%..... on a team that finished 4th in the NHL for total points.....

so, I am really not concerned at all about Murray replacing those 35games.... at all. Especially when you consider about 40% of Jack's starts yielded similar results

 

[Dekes For Days]

I guess that is the difference between Realism and Optimism.
Realism is based on facts and Optimism is based on hope,

Except what you seem to think is "realism" is actually pessimism based on cherry picking irrelevant information and ignoring important information, and what you seem to think is "optimism" is actually "realism" based on the actual, relevant facts.

I'm hoping Murray does well, but those are his actual numbers going in, whether you like them or not.

His "actual numbers" going in are +3.2 GSAx, which is better than all of our goalies last year.