Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[29Potvin]

You actually think Murray is as good as Campbell?

You also seem to think highly of Felix Potvin.

What a cool mask he wore.

Yup Potvin was the goalie when I started watching hockey and was a reason I played the position.
Tell me what has made Soup such a better NHL? Is it his multiple cup wins or could it be all the series he has won? or his track record of being super durable?
All wait for you response? I Was also a big Killer and Clarke fan if you would like to send some childish slight at me!

 

[ACC1224]

Yup Potvin was the goalie when I started watching hockey and was a reason I played the position.
Tell me what has made Soup such a better NHL? Is it his multiple cup wins or could it be all the series he has won? or his track record of being super durable?
All wait for you response? I Was also a big Killer and Clarke fan if you would like to send some childish slight at me!

Potvin was a beauty.

 

[Stephen]

Yup Potvin was the goalie when I started watching hockey and was a reason I played the position.
Tell me what has made Soup such a better NHL? Is it his multiple cup wins or could it be all the series he has won? or his track record of being super durable?
All wait for you response? I Was also a big Killer and Clarke fan if you would like to send some childish slight at me!

Felix Potvin posted 3x 1-0 shutouts in the 1994 first round series against Chicago and obviously went to the final fours twice in his first two years in the league. Talk about cool under pressure.

He also managed to play 48 games as a 21 year old rookie in 1993 which is 1 off of Jack Campbell's career high as a 30 year old. Some people really need to have some appreciation.

 

[13pacheco31]

Oilers ditched him, Wild didn't trust him and Ottawa bought him into tandem. I don't know, maybe he was. Will see, there is lots of teams to compare.


Will be. At the same time I don't care about regular season anymore, but it will tell lot about this team and our goalies.

Actually you could say that half the teams in the Atlantic have something to be terrified or to be excited of. Tampa has their goalie set, Bobrovsky should hold on his own, Talbot is probably at least ok, but from Canadiens to Buffalo there isn't sure thing on the net. Price can be anything, our tandem at best is interesting, Boston has their goalie troubles, Detroit is mystery box and Buffalo is Buffalo. Goaltending can be anything from Vezina caliber to total disaster.

He's cheaper, one less year and likely still better stats than Murray. Plus samsonov would probably be alright in a tandem

 

[Mess]

Felix Potvin posted 3x 1-0 shutouts in the 1994 first round series against Chicago and obviously went to the final fours twice in his first two years in the league. Talk about cool under pressure.

He also managed to play 48 games as a 21 year old rookie in 1993 which is 1 off of Jack Campbell's career high as a 30 year old. Some people really need to have some appreciation.

I loved Felix the Cat and that is where my "Defense wins Championships" belief dates back to because under Pat Burns the Leafs played tight defense and the Cat only need a single goal or 2 and Dougie and Wendel provided that.

We were so spoiled back then to have sound goaltending and we really haven't had any real reliable goaltending since Cujo and Eddie the Eagle Belfour, probably helps explain the 18 years without a playoff win.

 

[justashadowof]

I loved Felix the Cat and that is where my "Defense wins Championships" belief dates back to because under Pat Burns the Leafs played tight defense and the Cat only need a single goal or 2 and Dougie and Wendel provided that.

We were so spoiled back then to have sound goaltending and we really haven't had any real reliable goaltending since Cujo and Eddie the Eagle Belfour, probably helps explain the 18 years without a playoff win.

A growing faction of the fan base was ready to run Potvin out of town on a rail during his last couple of seasons here. And Ken Dryden essentially did that signing the older Cujo to take Potvin's starting role. The result was an instant playoff team and 2 conference final appearances.

 

[aingefan]

This thread really keeps on keeping on.

Every time I see the green banner, I think maybe something new happened.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Leafs have 1/2 their entire teams salary Cap wrapped up in 4 forwards and its always the goalies fault when they lose.

They get SH 3-0 to Columbus, 3-1 to Montreal and 2-1 to Tampa Bay in the series deciding games and its the goalies that couldn't save them.

The only way Leafs could have won any of these games is if their goalie posted a shutout because the offense provided 2 goals total in 3 series clinching games.

Now its apparently Matt Murray coming off a 20 game 5 win season that is being tasked with saving the Leafs because he won a Cup 5 seasons ago with a different team.

Clutch goal scoring not clutch goaltending is the Leafs downfall.

This history lesson ignores many games before the penultimate game 7s that saw our goaltending fail to shut the door to either clinch a series or put them on the brink of a series win.

Since Dubas was GM:

Game 6 2019 Andersen allowed 3 goals in Game 6 failing on the PK by allowing 2 powerplay goals against.

Game 7 2019 Andersen allowed 3 goals in a winner take all game, one of which was an absolute stinker from the goal line, not the first or last time he’d allow an awful backbreaking goal from around that spot.

Game 3 2020 Leafs had a 3-0 lead and God forbid Andersen shut the door to put the Leafs one game away from a series win, he allows four straight unanswered. Imagine if he’d held it together for 40 f***ing minutes and the. The Leafs had that miracle comeback in game 4? That would’ve been a hell of a story.

Game 5 2021 Jack Campbell at home allows 3 straight goals to put his team in a massive hole. The offence tries to make up for it but one mistake in OT is all it takes to undo all that work. Campbell isn’t to blame for failing to stop a 2 on 0 but he is responsible for allowing the game to get that out of hand in the first place.

Game 6 2021 again puts the Leafs in a hole down 2-0, and in OT allows literally the 2nd or 3rd shot he faced that period in.

Then in 2022 any time the Leafs had a chance to take a multi-game lead in the series, Games 2 and 4, Campbell allowed 5 goals both times and his play on the PK, which had been a strong point all season, all of the sudden disappeared. Not to mention the crappy OT winner he allowed in Game 6.

The offence most assuredly should’ve shown up in those Game 7s but let’s not act like the goaltending was ever clutch or that Andersen or Campbell ever outdueled their counterparts in net.

Frankly, the biggest reason the Leafs have been close to winning a series since Dubas took over as GM has been the offence. Only once since 2019 has there been a game that brought the Leafs close to a series win where you could point at the goaltending and say that that was the reason they won that game, Game 5 2019. Every other game that got the Leafs to the brink was because the offence had to carry piss poor goaltending as far as it could before inevitably the goaltending shit the bed.

Should also add that the defence also hasn’t been all that great in these games but since the parameters of this discussion is about goaltending I kept focused there.

 

[JoeSakic13]

This thread really keeps on keeping on.

Every time I see the green banner, I think maybe something new happened.

I’m pretty sure if Murray switched to 2% milk in his cereal this topic would get another 6 pages of discussion.

 

[Stephen]

A growing faction of the fan base was ready to run Potvin out of town on a rail during his last couple of seasons here. And Ken Dryden essentially did that signing the older Cujo to take Potvin's starting role. The result was an instant playoff team and 2 conference final appearances.

1992-93 to January 1999 was a 6.5 year time span. A lot changed in those years.

 

[socko]

Potvin played so deep in his net. We absolutely fleeced the NYI for Berard but then Hossa struck with his patented reverse golf swing.

 

[justashadowof]

1992-93 to January 1999 was a 6.5 year time span. A lot changed in those years.

It's crazy to think that's only a year and half longer than Andersen was a goalie here.

Potvin played so deep in his net. We absolutely fleeced the NYI for Berard but then Hossa struck with his patented reverse golf swing.

Berard could have easily been something very close to Morgan Rielly.

Never understood why the wild swing of his stick by Hossa isn't looked down upon like a careless check from behind or a low bridge hit. They're all potentially career threatening behaviour. I know the responses I'm going to get to this but go take a look at the incident. It was reckless swing of the stick at a bouncing puck.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

It's crazy to think that's only a year and half longer than Andersen was a goalie here.


Berard could have easily been something very close to Morgan Rielly.

Never understood why the wild swing of his stick by Hossa isn't looked down upon like a careless check from behind or a low bridge hit. They're all potentially career threatening behaviour. I know the responses I'm going to get to this but go take a look at the incident. It was reckless swing of the stick at a bouncing puck.

I remember that Hossa/Berard incident very well. It wasn't in a vacuum. Hossa was clearly frustrated at the time and was indeed very reckless. There was nothing natural about it from a hockey point of view. Just another one of those things you're not allowed to say out loud as a Leafs fan like my nagging feeling I'll always have that Perry knew exactly what he was doing when he ran into Tavares.

 

[Stephen]

I loved Felix the Cat and that is where my "Defense wins Championships" belief dates back to because under Pat Burns the Leafs played tight defense and the Cat only need a single goal or 2 and Dougie and Wendel provided that.

We were so spoiled back then to have sound goaltending and we really haven't had any real reliable goaltending since Cujo and Eddie the Eagle Belfour, probably helps explain the 18 years without a playoff win.

Felix the Cat and those 1993 and 1994 teams are why I really fell in love with the game, but our current version of the Leafs is more like the 1993 Detroit Red Wings with Tim Cheveldae in net. So we need to find out if Murray and Samsonov are Mike Vernon and Chris Osgood or if Murray is Bob Essensa. To use some 90s points of reference.

 

[andora]

Murray had a GSAx of +3.2 through 20 games last year, which is not bad at all (better than every single one of our goalies last year). Forsberg did slightly better at +0.198 GSAx/60 compared to Murray's +0.163, and both did much better than Gustavsson or Sogaard, but not sure why you think that's relevant. Murray dealt with the worst defensive play in front of him on the team, for the record, with an xGAA of 3.21.

I remember bringing up stats showing nylander and tavares were not playing well defensively when together.. and you jumped in and said that could be attributed to having the worst save percentage by the goalie when they were out there versus other lines

What is the marker for when we can say poor defence put more pressure on the goalie and he let in more goals versus the goalie wasnt very good and brought down the players playing defence

What can i look at that can help me decide when either is true. Is it standings? Good team metrics mean bad goalie and bad team metrics mean good goalie?

Something else

 

[Dayjobdave]

Murray has been a big moment player ??

Here is Murray's record his last 2 playoff years in Pittsburgh

2019-20 NHL Playoff Results - Qualifying Round Best of 5 (70 game season).
========================================================

(#5) Pittsburgh Penguins [86 points] vs. (#12) Montreal Canadiens [71 points]

Aug 1 Montreal Canadiens 3 2 at Pittsburgh Penguins OT
Aug 3 Montreal Canadiens 1 3 at Pittsburgh Penguins
Aug 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 3 4 at Montreal Canadiens
Aug 7 Pittsburgh Penguins 0 2 at Montreal Canadiens

Montreal Canadiens win series 3 games to 1

While Toronto was losing to CBJ in 5 games ..
- Matt Murray on the heavily favored Pens was going 1-3 against the lowest ranked team in the playoffs. Looks like Murray didn't rise to the occasion against the lowly Habs either.

2018-19 NHL Playoff Results - Round 1
===============================================

(#4) New York Islanders [103 points] vs (#5) Pittsburgh Penguins [100 points]

Apr 10 Pittsburgh Penguins 3 4 at New York Islanders OT
Apr 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 1 3 at New York Islanders
Apr 14 New York Islanders 4 1 at Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 16 New York Islanders 3 1 at Pittsburgh Penguins

New York Islanders win series 4 games to 0

NYI's sweep Matt Murray lead Pens in 4 games..
- Murray's record last 2 playoff series .. 1 win 7 losses before he was shipped off to Ottawa.
This is the player coming off 2 injury riddled seasons in Ottawa acquired as a contract dump, now being viewed as "clutch" playoff goalie the Leafs have been missing to go deep in the playoffs?

I apologize,, because I'm just not seeing this money goalie rising to the occasion that even if the Leafs had him the past 2 years against Montreal and Tampa Bay his past performance screams difference maker that Leafs fate would have been any better than Campbell delivered. Did he certainly play better than game 7 Freddie during this same overlapping time period while Leafs were losing to CBJ and Boston?

My point is what I think Leaf’s management was weighing. I dont actually have the inside info. In both the series you reference, Murray played well, but the opposing goalie was other worldly.

He did have two runs that resulted in cups.

I think Leaf management thinks he still has it in him.

a valid question would be what would happen if they only signed Samsonov and used the cap space elsewhere. I think we are better off with the two goalies, and if Murray is injured we have the space anyway, but if the money provided another impact player that could work as well.

 

[Mess]

Murray had a GSAx of +3.2 through 20 games last year, which is not bad at all (better than every single one of our goalies last year). Forsberg did slightly better at +0.198 GSAx/60 compared to Murray's +0.163, and both did much better than Gustavsson or Sogaard, but not sure why you think that's relevant. Murray dealt with the worst defensive play in front of him on the team, for the record, with an xGAA of 3.21.

If Expected Goals Saved above expected is your measure then these are true Contenders in Net.

Washington went out and dumped Samsonov and now has #5th best Darcy Kuemper. So the beasts of the east in net are all at the top of this list so its not surprising they were also the final 4 in the Eastern Conference.

NHL Goaltending Leaders Goals Saved above Expected - 2021-22

			Games	Goals	Expected	Goals Saved	Goals Saved
Rank	Team	Name	Played	Against	Goals	Above	Above Expected
					Against	Expected	Per 60
1​	New York Rangers	Igor Shesterkin	53​	106​	140.10	34.10	0.666
2​	Tampa Bay Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	63​	156​	184.41	28.40	0.453
3​	Carolina Hurricanes	Frederik Andersen	52​	111​	138.82	27.80	0.543
4​	Florida Panthers	Sergei Bobrovsky	54​	137​	160.39	23.40	0.456
5​	Colorado Avalanche ( now Washington)	Darcy Kuemper	57​	138​	158.97	21.00	0.387
6​	Nashville Predators	Juuse Saros	67​	173​	193.69	20.70	0.316
7​	Los Angeles Kings	Jonathan Quick	46​	116​	133.80	17.80	0.398
8​	Winnipeg Jets	Connor Hellebuyck	66​	193​	209.65	16.70	0.257
9​	St. Louis Blues (Now Detroit)	Ville Husso	40​	100​	113.54	13.50	0.346
10​	New York Islanders	Ilya Sorokin	52​	123​	135.77	12.80	0.250
11​	Pittsburgh Penguins	Tristan Jarry	58​	138​	150.76	12.80	0.225
12​	Calgary Flames	Jacob Markstrom	63​	137​	147.84	10.80	0.175

Murray the previous year in 2020-21 in 27 games was almost unplayable at -15.9 GSAx and -.0679 GSAx per 60 and ranked 95th.

95​

Ottawa Senators

Matt Murray

27​

79​

63.09

(15.90)

(0.679)

For reference Jack Campbell was 7th @ +8.4

7​

Toronto Maple Leafs

Jack Campbell

22​

46​

54.40

8.40

0.392

 

[Mess]

My point is what I think Leaf’s management was weighing. I dont actually have the inside info. In both the series you reference, Murray played well, but the opposing goalie was other worldly.

He did have two runs that resulted in cups.

I think Leaf management thinks he still has it in him.

a valid question would be what would happen if they only signed Samsonov and used the cap space elsewhere. I think we are better off with the two goalies, and if Murray is injured we have the space anyway, but if the money provided another impact player that could work as well.

I fully agree particularly with Murray' injury history that having another goalie who was once a 1st round pick in his draft class at his price point is a good risk/reward move.

We are back to essentially a new tandem, with Leafs hoping one of the 2 can be healthy and get hot and play well, similarly how they banked on Campbell/Mrazek last year, but both struggled from Dec onwards.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if Samsonov played more games next year, and no question Leafs are hoping Murray can stay healthy and can regain some of his previous form from his past.

We will have to see how this plays out and hope for the best.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I fully agree particularly with Murray' injury history that having another goalie who was once a 1st round pick in his draft class at his price point is a good risk/reward move.

We are back to essentially a new tandem, with Leafs hoping one of the 2 can be healthy and get hot and play well, similarly how they banked on Campbell/Mrazek last year, but both struggled from Dec onwards.

I personally wouldn't be surprised if Samsonov played more games next year, and no question Leafs are hoping Murray can stay healthy and can regain some of his previous form from his past.

We will have to see how this plays out and hope for the best.

For sure.

I certainly don’t have the feeling that the goaltending is guaranteed to be settled for the next few years, but I do think they have two guys who have the potential to steal some games back there. Maybe that’s what feels different for me. Probably nothing is more important for this management group, or this fan base, as the timing of when those big games occur.

Out of the gate, to get the fans behind the goalies, and to save/clinch a series, and we are all happy. Any thing else and the search continues.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I remember bringing up stats showing nylander and tavares were not playing well defensively when together.. and you jumped in and said that could be attributed to having the worst save percentage by the goalie when they were out there versus other lines

You didn't bring up stats showing Nylander and Tavares not playing well defensively. You brought up specifically GA stats driven by horrible goaltending over a certain stretch, and tried to attribute it to their defensive play despite everything suggesting otherwise.

What is the marker for when we can say poor defence put more pressure on the goalie and he let in more goals versus the goalie wasnt very good and brought down the players playing defence

We look at defensive metrics to evaluate skater defensive play. We look at the discrepancy between skater defensive metrics and goals against metrics to evaluate goaltending.

If Expected Goals Saved above expected is your measure

My measure? Do you not remember using it yourself? The only difference is that while I'm consistent with its use, you randomly switched to attributing wins and losses to goalies when GSAx didn't say what you wanted it to say.

Washington went out and dumped Samsonov and now has #5th best Darcy Kuemper.

Yes, Washington did go out and sign a 32 year old goalie dealing with an eye injury to a 5 year contract at 5.25m per year. And yes, Kuemper did have a very good regular season last year, before putting up the 2nd worst GSAx in the playoffs.

Murray the previous year in 2020-21 in 27 games was almost unplayable at -15.9 GSAx and -.0679 GSAx per 60 and ranked 95th.

Yes we already discussed how Murray struggled for a couple years prior. The discussion was about how he rebounded last year, and was better than every single one of our goalies.

 

[andora]

You didn't bring up stats showing Nylander and Tavares not playing well defensively. You brought up specifically GA stats driven by horrible goaltending over a certain stretch, and tried to attribute it to their defensive play despite everything suggesting otherwise.

We look at defensive metrics to evaluate skater defensive play. We look at the discrepancy between skater defensive metrics and goals against metrics to evaluate goaltending.

It wasnt me that brought it up i recall now it was goal differential. Evidence suggested that while 91 and 88 were together more goals went in than when they were separated.. but it was goaltending only.

That certain stretch though i remember being quite a large timeframe.

And i remember something about the cookie crumbling and matthews having a poor save percentage.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It wasnt me that brought it up i recall now it was goal differential. Evidence suggested that while 91 and 88 were together more goals went in than when they were separated.. but it was goaltending only. That certain stretch though i remember being quite a large timeframe.

It was goals against, and it wasn't a very large timeframe. I believe it was about half of 1 season's worth of ice time, and their goals against was very obviously inflated due to the horrendous and abnormal 0.872 goaltending they received during that stretch, not due to their defensive play, which wasn't significantly different or anywhere close to that bad. Sometimes, like that year, you get hurt by your goaltending, and sometimes, like the year prior when they received 0.938 goaltending together, you get helped by your goaltending.

 

[andora]

It was goals against, and it wasn't a very large timeframe. I believe it was about half of 1 season's worth of ice time, and their goals against was very obviously inflated due to the horrendous and abnormal 0.872 goaltending they received during that stretch, not due to their defensive play, which wasn't significantly different or anywhere close to that bad.

Looks like he did 3 years. I had to go back i was curious..

18M for +3 goal differential over 3 seasons isn't sound cap management IMO. I expanded the numbers year over year. Over the same time frame the Leafs have outscored opponents 344-277 with a .911 SV% with Nylander and Tavares not on the ice. I would venture to say that they have an effect on the goaltenders SV%.

Season	TOI (H:M:S)	GF	GA
19-20	7:00:16	25	30
20-21	9:57:49	34	19
21-22	10:48:16	43	50
SUM	27:46:21	102	99

 

[Dekes For Days]

Looks like he did 3 years.

You're right, that individual did take a very misleading look at a 3 year stretch. Doesn't change anything else I said, and not really sure what any of this has to do with the Murray trade.

 

[Its not your fault]

When Matt Murray goes head to head vs Vasilevskiy in the playoffs how is that sv% going to hold up and win the head 1-1 battle?

"Good teams are built from the Goalie out" and Vas is often the difference maker particularly in series deciding games,

Your stats show Leafs goalies are the weakest link and Leafs need to outscore their own goaltending to produce their team record. You're only as strong as your weakest link.

This is a flawed strategy to think to works in the playoffs, to win consistently, because when goal scoring goes down as checking and shot blocking and defense goes up, you no longer can always outscore your own goalie.

What the Leafs should be looking for is a goalie with a high "Goals saved above expected" to fit with their team build style, not ones with low sv% at 5v5. It the saves above the expected that can steal and game and series particularly in series deciding games.

So who won in Pittsburgh?