Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] Marner re-signs (6 years, $10.893M AAV) Part III

[Kamiccolo]

I think all three of those players have GMs who are trying to keep their salaries in check. Laine's relationship with the Jets has been strained for a while, and might have more to do with Maurice than contract talks.

Either all three of these GMs cave and Dubas comes out looking great, or all three of them don't, or something in between.

My guess is: Rantanen signs a big deal, something around 10m; Point signs a bridge deal that makes Toronto's head explode; and Laine is traded to a team who might be so desperate for a scoring winger that they give him Marner money. So it winds up a wash for Dubas.

Marner didn't take a bridge deal though

 

[DFC]

Marner didn't take a bridge deal though

He didn't. That won't stop heads from exploding and 4-6 threads about taxes.

 

[CupInSIX]

Props to Dreger for getting the scoop on this and all things TML.

 

[Legion34]

I'm sure the assumption that the kids would take mild discounts or fair deals, long term. Both Matthews and Marner are groundbreaking RFA deals when you consider the cap hit and length of the deals for their respective positions.

Its kind of like Subbans deal back in the day. He signed it what, 5 years ago and its still not great value today.

Except Matthews was well in all comparables.
Marner seems about a million too high for now.

We will see how the rest will work out

 

[Kamiccolo]

He didn't. That won't stop heads from exploding and 4-6 threads about taxes.

If you go to the Leafs board, 80% of fans know for a fact Point will have a much better contract. Most of us are prepared for every player to take 8 year deals for less money.

But when the kids say "I won't take less" and you are contending, you either lose a year of your window by letting them sit, let it drag into the season and have them useless like Nylander, or pay them and sort it out later if it becomes a problem.

I don't get the Dubas hate. The kids don't want to take a discount, not much he can do. And I say that as someone who thinks these RFA deals are the only black mark on his GM resume, and Nylander might be a steal now.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

What an overpayment lol.

If leafs dont win this year they are screwed. Muzzin will be gone, Barrie will be gone and the defense will be dog **** once again.

Better to have good players and contract problems... than bad players and space.

We will find a way to make it work, hopefully. Our D will be an issue, and will rely on entry level guys(which all teams do) .. but we have our best players paid and with term. Judge the team in 5yrs.... if they haven't won it; I'll accept all the remarks and criticism.

I'll bet a pretty penny that 10million+ is the norm for players soon and top end guys will be asking for 15M. These 3 year sliding contracts are aimed to optimize that rising cap.

 

[Legion34]

He didn't. That won't stop heads from exploding and 4-6 threads about taxes.

Well as long as now you understand how wrong Tampa fans have been about the tax scenario. You won’t have to be bothered.

We we be able to calculate the deals Tampa And Colorado sign in comparison to Toronto.

My bet is marner is still about 1 million overpaid.
Even after the massive tax advantages proven to exist for Tampa

 

[Frank Drebin]

Now I believe you're the one making assumptions (this is nothing more than speculation).

Unless you can provide a source?

 

[DFC]

If you go to the Leafs board, 80% of fans know for a fact Point will have a much better contract. Most of us are prepared for every player to take 8 year deals for less money.

But when the kids say "I won't take less" and you are contending, you either lose a year of your window by letting them sit, let it drag into the season and have them useless like Nylander, or pay them and sort it out later if it becomes a problem.

Whether it's Dubas or not, I'm not sure. I think there's an expectation on a GM to negotiate a good deal. But if players are unwilling to take any kind of team-friendly deal... Well, that can be a problem on a contending team. Whether it's Dubas's fault or the players', I don't know, but when a very good group of players get together, a lot of times you see them take a little less.

I don't get the Dubas hate. The kids don't want to take a discount, not much he can do. And I say that as someone who thinks these RFA deals are the only black mark on his GM resume, and Nylander might be a steal now.

I think he had to get a win out of one of them. Nylander seemed to set the tone, but still. If Toronto had been able to say, "Our three best players are signed to deals competitive with the other best trios in the league," it would fare a lot better than just, "our best three players are signed." Because that leaves out the rest of the scenario. Which, granted, isn't that bad for this year.

 

[Legion34]

If you go to the Leafs board, 80% of fans know for a fact Point will have a much better contract. Most of us are prepared for every player to take 8 year deals for less money.

But when the kids say "I won't take less" and you are contending, you either lose a year of your window by letting them sit, let it drag into the season and have them useless like Nylander, or pay them and sort it out later if it becomes a problem.

I don't get the Dubas hate. The kids don't want to take a discount, not much he can do. And I say that as someone who thinks these RFA deals are the only black mark on his GM resume, and Nylander might be a steal now.

Nylander was fine but too late.

Matthews was fine. He fits in line with all major RFA with his credentials who don’t have the massive Tampa tax advantages.
I would have wanted 6 years because he is our horse. If we have to break the bank. I wanted to be able to take it out of Tavares 11 million

Marner I think 12% would have been fair. But the rest of the comparables are still up for grabs. I wanted dubas to go last.

I do think it’s good business to give him the 1.6 million B bonus over 6 years. That’s fine.

10.893-.266 is 10.63.

Hmmmm maybe that’s a million less than Matthews? Plus bonuses.

In my mind 12% was about 9.78. So without comparables it looks like he was overpaid by about 800k.

Not the end of the world. But still I think he overpaid.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree. I feel bad for the fans, but there is a part of me that is happy to see it happen to a small handful on this board. But I am sure we all feel like that about most teams.

A small handful, agreed. Some of those Laine fanboys were insufferable.

Either all three of these GMs cave and Dubas comes out looking great, or all three of them don't, or something in between.

My guess is: Rantanen signs a big deal, something around 10m; Point signs a bridge deal that makes Toronto's head explode; and Laine is traded to a team who might be so desperate for a scoring winger that they give him Marner money. So it winds up a wash for Dubas.

Interesting predictions, we'll see. If Rantanen signs for 10m that should silence the Dubas critics. Not that it will, but it should.

And I'd be shocked if anyone was willing to give Laine Marner money, I'd say the odds of this happening are ... I don't even know what number to put on this, 1% maybe?

Except Matthews was well in all comparables.
Marner seems about a million too high for now.

We will see how the rest will work out

I'd say that's about right. I mean, there are very few (if any) comparables for Matthews, but yeah.

What Shanahan says for public consumption and what he really thinks are two different things and nobody can say what he really thought based on that. Example - in the post season press conference, Dubas took the blame for about 18 different things including our poor special team performance which is so obviously not his fault.

Bottom line, when management talks to the media about their "thoughts", don't take what they say to the bank. I can tell you this much, most Leaf fans weren't expecting anyone to take a discount. We were hoping sure, but expecting, nope. And I doubt Shanahan was naive enough to think otherwise (though he was probably hoping to influence them with this quote).

Whether it's Dubas or not, I'm not sure. I think there's an expectation on a GM to negotiate a good deal. But if players are unwilling to take any kind of team-friendly deal... Well, that can be a problem on a contending team. Whether it's Dubas's fault or the players', I don't know, but when a very good group of players get together, a lot of times you see them take a little less.

Examples? I can think of a few individual players who clearly took discounted deals, not groups of players though. Not saying you're wrong, I just don't follow the other teams that closely.

 

[Durrr]

I still can't believe this signing. Grossly overpaid and only 6 yrs too. At the very least, that amount should've warranted the max term of 8 yrs, even then, it's still a titled deal.
Glad other GM's didn't follow suit and set the standard for this ridiculous contract. Bridge deals w/ McAvoy @ 4.9 and Boeser @5.8. Even Keller signed max term for 7.15M, and imho he has a higher ceiling and better 200 ft game than Marner.

I remember leafs fans berating McDavid's contract when he signed it, calling him 'McGreedy', and leafs fans ridiculing Draisaitl's contract, saying he's just McDavid's shotgun. Today, both contracts are absolute steals, and they both signed for max term. Both will be past their prime when their contract expires, so they won't warrant a huge extension compared to if they were a UFA 2 years earlier. Regardless of leafs fans pestering McDavid to request a trade, both him and Draisaitl are loyal as hell.

Matthews signs for almost min term for UFA status at 5 yrs, and Marner grossly overpaid on a 6 year. Both will be right in their prime when their contract expires and will demand the whole world and then some in free agency (it's pretty obvious what one of them plans to do).

This is a prime example of how Karma works

You cannot be serious with those comparables....Keller with 47 points last year after 65 the year prior @7.15....Brock Boeser with 56 points after 55 the year prior @ 5.8....

Not only did Marner have 94 points last year, but he's scored more points in all 3 of his seasons then Boeser has ever managed to touch in his peak season. Come back when Marner's actual comparables sign a contract, like Rantanen or Point. If you wanted to be taken serious you should have used Aho, who at least scored 30 goals last year and went over a PPG.

 

[Rubi]

Better to have good players and contract problems... than bad players and space.

We will find a way to make it work, hopefully. Our D will be an issue, and will rely on entry level guys(which all teams do) .. but we have our best players paid and with term. Judge the team in 5yrs.... if they haven't won it; I'll accept all the remarks and criticism.

I'll bet a pretty penny that 10million+ is the norm for players soon and top end guys will be asking for 15M. These 3 year sliding contracts are aimed to optimize that rising cap.

OMG... I agree with everything you've said. In the end, Leaf fans opinions and other fans opinions... are just opinions. We shall see soon enough whether or not Dubas has chosen the right road to travel down. I'm sure a lot of posters will look back in a few years and cringe at the things they posted.

 

[Boutette]

You cannot be serious with those comparables....Keller with 47 points last year after 65 the year prior @7.15....Brock Boeser with 56 points after 55 the year prior @ 5.8....

Not only did Marner have 94 points last year, but he's scored more points in all 3 of his seasons then Boeser has ever managed to touch in his peak season. Come back when Marner's actual comparables sign a contract, like Rantanen or Point. If you wanted to be taken serious you should have used Aho, who at least scored 30 goals last year and went over a PPG.

Marner's contract is comparable to Aho's when you look at ATOI, PP ATOI, Ozone starts and who their linemates are and their production. Marner is pricier, no argument there, but he has produced at a higher level than Aho year after year.

 

[Sparksrus3]

You cannot be serious with those comparables....Keller with 47 points last year after 65 the year prior @7.15....Brock Boeser with 56 points after 55 the year prior @ 5.8....

Not only did Marner have 94 points last year, but he's scored more points in all 3 of his seasons then Boeser has ever managed to touch in his peak season. Come back when Marner's actual comparables sign a contract, like Rantanen or Point. If you wanted to be taken serious you should have used Aho, who at least scored 30 goals last year and went over a PPG.

Scheifele has a 6.1 cap number for 5 more seasons.

 

[Wayward Son]

personally I can't wait to watch Canucks fans meltdown when Barrie re-signs with Toronto

SAY IT AIN'T SO!
- the entire city of vancouver, probably
​

 

[Leaf Fans]

Really? I got told I was a leaf hater because I said I only think it’s very possible that Matthews is over a point per game next year instead of saying it’s a sure thing.

Really? by whom?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Scheifele has a 6.1 cap number for 5 more seasons.

At the time of that signing, his career high was Marner's career low.

 

[ottomaddox]

I'm really shocked HF Leaf fans didn't cry out when they heard that Marner could have signed an offer sheet (especially) from MIN. 4 firsts?!! That is greater than winning a cup to some people here.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

At the time of that signing, his career high was Marner's career low.

BIzarre how people don't get that. Would be interesting watching them buy stocks after they explode yet struggle to figure out why they don't cost the same.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I wish it was possible to avoid all this leafs stuff. Unfortunately you go read a thread about a player signing for a different team (Carlo for immediate example), and there’s a bunch of leafs fans in there talking about the leafs to a point where the mods have to come in, post a warning about the thread not being about the leafs and delete half the posts.

It’s not easy for fans of other teams to avoid talking about the leafs when some (not all) of the fans of your team bring them up in unrelated threads.

Folks say this all the time yet most times you look, it is actually non Leaf fans that introduce the Leafs to the topic.

 

[Dache]

Really? by whom?

I’m not taking that bait if that’s what you mean. It was in the Marner threads a month or so ago. By two or three of the more “popular” leaf fans.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I’m not taking that bait if that’s what you mean. It was in the Marner threads a month or so ago. By two or three of the more “popular” leaf fans.

It wasn't bait. It is interest.

 

[Dache]

It wasn't bait. It is interest.

Fair enough then. Still pretty positive that’ll just get erased by mods or have me warned though.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Fair enough then. Still pretty positive that’ll just get erased by mods or have me warned though.

Oh, but if someone genuinely said that and you linked to their post it should be fine. Then again, I once got a flaming warning when, from perspective I was complementing a player, and other posters said it was sarcasm and I guess mod agreed. So maybe caution is the best course of action.