Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] John Tavares signs with the Leafs (7 years, $11M AAV) Part III

[Skin Tape Session]

Isles fans will recall, some including myself who was just following Barzal's Calder rookie season last year criticized Tavares play in the 2nd half last season. And this was at only 5.5M not 11M or 15.9M to be precise. He's in Toronto now. Things will be 1000x more magnified. I agree the media will eat him alive if he does not play to that 11M or almost 16M pay cheque next season.

he doesent have to play to it. with the depth we have there is no reason we will not be winning games. if we are winning no one cares.if we lose five in a row people yap for a day but as soon as we win a game its over. the majority of use are smart intelligent fans, its the fat around the edges, the bozak and a second crowd that make the rest of us look dumb.it will be fine, most of us understand 11 million was the cost to get him here.11 million is worth having TWO franchise centers, we are essential paying 12 million for two franchise centers next year

 

[Pi]

It's a decent contract for 2-3 years. After that Tavares will have negative value just like Toews, Price etc

Why is that? Joe Thornton can't skate for shit and he had no problem being a great player well into his thirties.

Comparing him to Toews and Price doesnt' make sense. Price had like 2-3 good years. Toews has never been a great scorer even in his prime, never cracked a PPG season.

Tavares is top ten in points and goals scored since he entered the league. He's not going to decline in 3 years. It will be a gradual decline but he will still be an effective player in his 30s as long as he doesn't suffer a major injury or two. 11M by the time he's 35 will not be a lot of money.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Time flies. He came home and he's just the first guy to come home, the floodgates are going to open. October can't come fast enough.

I'm kind of wondering if Jeff Skinner or Wayne Simmonds are next, get rid of that Marleau money after this season because we all know it's happening, that was clear from day 1, and replace him with Skinner or Simmonds

 

[FelixPotvin29]

I would suggest for Leaf fans in this thread that they stop and remember that people largely see and hear what they want and no amount of logic or reason is going to keep people from seeing this in a negative light.

It is what it is. Can’t wait till the season is underway and the hockey speaks for itself.

 

[glucker]

Do you know the frequency of many what is wrong threads that pop up on the Main board? Your over sensitivity is noted here. But if you do not wish to participate on the main board when and if this happens. You can post on the team board or just press the ignore threads function. Your name calling or whining will not stop NHL fans from discussing if a player is worth x amount of dollars as we do each and every year on the main board.

Tavares is the highest paid player next year at 15.9, and the 2nd highest cap hit. Posting about his performance relative to this on the main board is a discussion worthy topic.

Hi spasto. Your cowardice is still noted over at hockeybuzz.

 

[al secord]

I just think, infact I know how this market works. If players like Bozak and JVR were under a microscope for earning 1/4 of what Tavares will be next year as the 16M $ man and they were criticized often for their play at just 4.2 M and 4.25M per year during their tenures, these next 7 years are going to be interesting. Even Kessel who went onto win 2 Cups was chased out of town at what looks like a discount now at 8M per and 6.8M with 1.2 retained by the Leafs for the rest of his contract.

I picture you in your 93 Dougie Leaf jersey, tears streaming down your cheeks, eating a tub of Kawartha's Moose tracks ice cream as you typed this.

 

[I am Canadian]

Another element ~ Tavares has never had the support he will get this season from the Leafs.

He's had little support with only Okposo as a supporting cause over the number of years. He will have Nylander, Marner + Matthews who can all put up PPG on their own.

 

[boredmale]

Another element ~ Tavares has never had the support he will get this season from the Leafs.

He's had little support with only Okposo as a supporting cause over the number of years. He will have Nylander, Marner + Matthews who can all put up PPG on their own.

Even when the Islanders sucked, they generally rated in the top half of the league offensively, so let's not act like Tavares was an Island on his own in that regard. it's defensively that the Islanders have had their issues the past 10 years

Just to put it in perspective here is where the Islanders as a team ranked in Goals For

NHL Hockey Standings

2009-2010 - 21st
2010-2011 - 16th
2011-2012 - 26th
2012-2013 - 8th
2013-2014 - 16th
2014-2015 - 4th
2015-2016 - 10th
2016-2017 - 10th
2017-2018 -8th

Now you might make an argument that he was at a disadvantage in his first 3 season in terms of offensive help but starting 2013 that didn't seem to be an issue compared to the rest of the league

My 2 cents about Tavares production is I would expect his points over 60 minutes 5 on 5 to increase but his icetime(20+ minutes a game) and PP time to decrease(thus one will most likely balance out the other). Given that I expect Babcock to play him in a more structured system we can probably expect him not to have those minute+ long shifts that he many times might get a point on(although lead to even more defensive blunders)

 

[IPS]

Why is that? Joe Thornton can't skate for **** and he had no problem being a great player well into his thirties.

Comparing him to Toews and Price doesnt' make sense. Price had like 2-3 good years. Toews has never been a great scorer even in his prime, never cracked a PPG season.

Tavares is top ten in points and goals scored since he entered the league. He's not going to decline in 3 years. It will be a gradual decline but he will still be an effective player in his 30s as long as he doesn't suffer a major injury or two. 11M by the time he's 35 will not be a lot of money.

John Tavares' best attribute (hockey IQ) is the one that ages the best. Thornton, Zetterberg, Bergeron, Sedin twins etc... guys who were never elite skaters yet remain incredibly effective as they age because that hockey IQ is something that never goes away.

 

[NoTouchIcing]

The no wifi is a joke

They don't have sarcasm in the 'Peg.

 

[FelixPotvin29]

Hi spasto. Your cowardice is still noted over at hockeybuzz.

Is this Unholy_goalie? I’m willing to bet it is

 

[glucker]

Is this Unholy_goalie? I’m willing to bet it is

Him or me?

 

[AppsSyl]

It is nice to see this thread is on Part III and still going strong two weeks later.

It is humorous how Tavares is now a player who was slower and uninterested last season, and real $ (16 million) are now being quoted rather than cap $, and that the media and pressure are going to be an issue. Same old HF nonsense regarding Leaf players. If San Jose had landed Tavares I doubt there would have been such a backlash. They were apparently willing to give him $13 million AAV on the cap and I doubt there would have been much said about it. As far as the slow and uninterested nonsense, it is exactly that, nonsense. Tavares is in his prime, and he isn't the type of player who will decline sharply given that his greatest strengths are his hockey IQ and his hands. As far as pressure from the media and playing in Toronto and such, do people forget the hype around him as a teenager? The guy lived pressure and spotlight from a young age and thrived.

I think a more interesting question than, how is Tavares going to perform under the pressure this season, would be, how is Barzal going to perform under the pressure of being the franchise player on the Island and having to deal with the top match ups night in and night out?

 

[Brobust]

Even when the Islanders sucked, they generally rated in the top half of the league offensively, so let's not act like Tavares was an Island on his own in that regard. it's defensively that the Islanders have had their issues the past 10 years

Just to put it in perspective here is where the Islanders as a team ranked in Goals For

NHL Hockey Standings

2009-2010 - 21st
2010-2011 - 16th
2011-2012 - 26th
2012-2013 - 8th
2013-2014 - 16th
2014-2015 - 4th
2015-2016 - 10th
2016-2017 - 10th
2017-2018 -8th

Now you might make an argument that he was at a disadvantage in his first 3 season in terms of offensive help but starting 2013 that didn't seem to be an issue compared to the rest of the league

My 2 cents about Tavares production is I would expect his points over 60 minutes 5 on 5 to increase but his icetime(20+ minutes a game) and PP time to decrease(thus one will most likely balance out the other). Given that I expect Babcock to play him in a more structured system we can probably expect him not to have those minute+ long shifts that he many times might get a point on(although lead to even more defensive blunders)

You can look up how his linemates performed with him and without him. Shouldn't be too hard to find. That's much more relevant than total offence.

 

[boredmale]

You can look up how his linemates performed with him and without him. Shouldn't be too hard to find. That's much more relevant than total offence.

Parenteau actually had a better PPG average the first (strike shortened) season he played in Colorado then his best season in NY, so that sort of ruins that argument

 

[AppsSyl]

Parenteau actually had a better PPG average the first (strike shortened) season he played in Colorado then his best season in NY, so that sort of ruins that argument

 

[34]

Just reading through this thread, and it is comical how mad people are. Tavares coming home to T.O has literally hurt a lot of feelings.

Sour, Salty Leaf haters will post anything to discredit the signing.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Do you know the frequency of many what is wrong threads that pop up on the Main board? Your over sensitivity is noted here. But if you do not wish to participate on the main board when and if this happens. You can post on the team board or just press the ignore threads function. Your name calling or whining will not stop NHL fans from discussing if a player is worth x amount of dollars as we do each and every year on the main board.

Tavares is the highest paid player next year at 15.9, and the 2nd highest cap hit. Posting about his performance relative to this on the main board is a discussion worthy topic.

I love how you continue pointing to how much his actual salary is vs what his actual cap hit is on average. I don't think I've ever actually seen anyone actually try and use that before. But I mean, what was I expecting from a cherry picker.

 

[boredmale]

That still doesn't change the fact that Parenteau(and for the sake of argument going by your list Vanek) did produce better elsewhere if you going by best season ever so the idea that Tavares propped them up is somewhat a fallacy since they proved the could produce well given certain conditions elsewhere. I would also ask in the case of your statistics what was the difference in the amount of time they played and powerplay(first unit powerplay time) since stuff like that can play a huge factor into the amount of points one may get.

Take Matt Moulson off the power play for instance and he would be useless and I don't remember him getting much PP time in Buffalo, but on his time in NY he was gold tapping in Tavares passes on the PP(and many of his goals where a result of his great hand eye coordination)

 

[AppsSyl]

That still doesn't change the fact that Parenteau(and for the sake of argument going by your list Vanek) did produce better elsewhere if you going by best season ever so the idea that Tavares propped them up is somewhat a fallacy since they proved the could produce well given certain conditions elsewhere. I would also ask in the case of your statistics what was the difference in the amount of time they played and powerplay(first unit powerplay time) since stuff like that can play a huge factor into the amount of points one may get.

Take Matt Moulson off the power play for instance and he would be useless and I don't remember him getting much PP time in Buffalo, but on his time in NY he was gold tapping in Tavares passes on the PP

In order to measure the impact Tavares had on those guys you can't change every variable, because there would be no way to accurately measure the impact. Looking at their time playing with the Isles, and their production during said time with and without Tavares gives an accurate and measurable snapshot.

I am not sure how you can cling to a Paranteau season with the Avs or Vanek seasons elsewhere, because the entire team was different not just Tavares. How can you accurately extrapolate his impact from that?

As much as you probably don't want to concede the tables showing Tavares' impact on his most common linemates from an article on the Athletic, clearly shows how much he drove the bus and propped up Islander after Islander who played with him.

 

[boredmale]

In order to measure the impact Tavares had on those guys you can't change every variable

Isn't that what you are doing?

How can you compare player A getting 16 minutes of playing time plus 3 minutes of PP time on Team A to the same player getting 10 minutes of playing time plus 1 minute PPTime on Team B. That is the exact definition of changing the variables

 

[AppsSyl]

Isn't that what you are doing?

How can you compare player A getting 16 minutes of playing time plus 3 minutes of PP time on Team A to the same player getting 10 minutes of playing time plus 1 minute PPTime on Team B. That is the exact definition of changing the variables

This is about Tavares playing with certain players and how they did, and then how said players did without him.
To your point about special teams, you might have a bit of a point if it included special teams, but.... (from the article)

"I pulled these numbers by looking at players’ three most recent seasons playing alongside Tavares (at least 50 per cent of their 5-on-5 TOI with Tavares), and their three most recent seasons without him.
As you can see, The Tavares Effect is real. Much like The Crosby Effect was able to get Chris Kunitz a roster spot on Canada’s 2014 Olympic team, Tavares has been earning his wingers a lot of money over the past few years. After watching players like Moulson crater without him, I think the hockey world is becoming more aware of this phenomenon. Heck, Lee scored 40 goals this year and no one seems to be talking about it since we have such a long track record of Tavares inflating his linemates’ production (usually by about 20-25 points)."

 

[Bounces R Way]

Not the first and won't be the last time I've whistled and wondered just how much money the Maple Leafs are going to pay that man.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Not the first and won't be the last time I've whistled and wondered just how much money the Maple Leafs are going to pay that man.

$77 million. No more wondering. You can rest easy now.

 

[FelixPotvin29]

Him or me?

TWS