Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[bert]

You were hoping, But even if you actually thought he was leaving I don't know why.

Every single credible report that we got said he was staying, literally ALL of them, not only that but they ALL said 3-5 years.

Low and behold exactly what literally ALL credible reports said would happen, happened and yet somehow this came as a shock to you.

I mean of course he is going to stay when he gets overpaid like this with the most favorable possible terms.

 

[Legion34]

Oh is this where you've spun it now. Hahaha ok. This conversation is now useless.
Outside of the victim complex and narrative you're trying to spin. What people are discussing is the contract. That he is quite clearly overpaid to all comparable deals.

That is 100% what happened. But ultimately it’s irrelevant. There is no spin required

1.) it is poor statisical analysis to claim that “scoring is up league wide” therefore It is easier to score about 300 goals in 475 ish games starting in 2004 vs 2016. Look at the league leaders in goals. Very similar at the top end.
It seems to be more driven by employing more skill throughout the line up than. Top end scoring

2.) even ignoring raw numbers. Both lead the league in goals twice at the same age. Matthews was 1 off a third he had his season stopped.

3.) moving away from the ovy comparison. Matthews lead the league in total goals his first 7 years. How many other players did that? 99. Ovy. Who else? Not mack. Not pasta. Not Mcdavid. And he did it in the time of the greatest goal scorer ever.

4.) if you look at total goals by age 25. He i 9th Now does scoring era count.

Who Had The Most Goals Under The Age Of 26 | StatMuse

Wayne Gretzky has recorded the most career goals by a player younger than 26, with 529 scored.

www.statmuse.com

Where does Matthews rank All time now. If we adjust for era. 6th 3rd? ? If Matthews scoring iOS less impressive then. Ovys due to 4th liners who can skate. He has to be way up on that list right?

 

[DFC]

Pretty funny how the narrative has quickly changed from “he’s leaving first chance he gets, Leafs are #%*%%” to “ he’s overpaid and overrated, Leafs are #%*%%”.

So transparent.

Well, I mean, one trip to the second round in like 20 years. Hard to argue they're good.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Pretty funny how the narrative has quickly changed from “he’s leaving first chance he gets, Leafs are #%*%%” to “ he’s overpaid and overrated, Leafs are #%*%%”.

So transparent.

Meh, who cares? (well, everyone it seems)

We got our guy locked up. 5 more seasons of AM34.

He was always gonna get paid.

Not much else to talk about really.

Drop the puck! But this thread will at least have a part II before the season starts.

 

[ACC1224]

Well, I mean, one trip to the second round in like 20 years. Hard to argue they're good.

This makes no sense in reply to my post.
What word gave you the most trouble? Maybe we can clear it up for you so your reply can make some sense.

 

[hotpaws]

Didn't think AM would sign for longer than 2/3 yrs , good on Tre for at least getting him inked to a 4yr deal.

I have no idea why AM is gambling maybe 10 of millions by not signing for 8yrs just so he can try to cash in for even more if he remains an elite player, anything can happen in the 4yrs before he can sign his next deal and if he isn't still playing at elite level he won't get anywhere near this money or an 8yr deal.

 

[DFC]

Didn't think AM would sign for longer than 2/3 yrs , good on Tre for at least getting him inked to a 4yr deal.

I have no idea why AM is gambling maybe 10 of millions by not signing for 8yrs just so he can try to cash in for even more if he remains an elite player, anything can happen in the 4yrs before he can sign his next deal and if he isn't still playing at elite level he won't get anywhere near this money or an 8yr deal.

Probably lining himself up to take his retirement deal while he's still an elite player, even if hes not quite as effective as he is now.

Decent chance he can get double digits X 8 years as a 31 year old under a higher cap, whereas the chances hes still a top player, or even a great player, at 34 or 35 are much smaller.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I really thought he was leaving.

But I guess my presumption that his priories were:

1. Getting paid (like all players should)
2. Leaving Toronto

Seems like he wants to be a lifelong Leaf as long as they are competitive and be paid market value for it.

I was wrong, and this signing makes me believes he will only leave the Leafs if he is 35+ without a cup.

1) $49.6 mil of the total $53 mil owed is in signing bonus, that's first and foremost the reason he stayed.
Toronto is one of 3 teams that could or would do that % in SB money, which is taxed at 15% IIRC. A lot less than Canadian/some US taxes

2) Toronto should be a playoff team the next few years, helps his endorsement money and he's friends with Marner and Nylander.

Those are the 2 factors he chose to stay in Toronto IMO.

 

[Legion34]

1) $49.6 mil of the total $53 mil owed is in signing bonus, that's first and foremost the reason he stayed.
Toronto is one of 3 teams that could or would do that % in SB money, which is taxed at 15% IIRC. A lot less than Canadian/some US taxes

2) Toronto should be a playoff team the next few years, helps his endorsement money and he's friends with Marner and Nylander.

Those are the 2 factors he chose to stay in Toronto IMO.

Signing bonuses are taxed at your home location. Matthews can try a whole bunch of tax gymnastics to not double pay in canada us. But he still pays taxes.

That’s why they are such a big deal in no state tax locations.

Normally yoh have to pay by jurisdiction and can be taxed over a bunch of places. But when stamkos takes all his money in sb

He pays “Tampa taxes” ok all 82 games. Not just 41 home games

I do think there are more teams that would pay full bonuses than 3.

But it is a definite advantage

 

[Roo]

Glad he’s signed. Those wanting more years is fair, but shorter terms generally favor the team. If he keeps getting paid, its bc hes worth it.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Signing bonuses are taxed at your home location. Matthews can try a whole bunch of tax gymnastics to not double pay in canada us. But he still pays taxes.

That’s why they are such a big deal in no state tax locations.

Normally yoh have to pay by jurisdiction and can be taxed over a bunch of places. But when stamkos takes all his money in sb

He pays “Tampa taxes” ok all 82 games. Not just 41 home games

I do think there are more teams that would pay full bonuses than 3.

But it is a definite advantage

Wasn't there an article back when Tavares signed where it'd estimated of the $70M of total $77 million in SB money, he netted an extra $8-9 million over the duration of 7 years?

John Tavares Could Save Nearly $12 Million In Taxes On His New Contract

Canada may have high tax rates but careful planning could save Tavares millions as he plays for his hometown team.

www.forbes.com

So Matthews likely netted an extra $5-6 million this way.

IMO that is the Leafs biggest draw/incentive for star players.
I'm sure Leafs management will waive that offer of 85-90% in SB if McDavid goes to UFA.

 

[Legion34]

A top 3-5 all time goal scorer by 25 took Jonathan toews money without being saddled with years 33-34

I fully believe he plans to leave and go to the states at 31. And that’s his right

Set some leafs records. Try to win a cup. Get assets back when he is 30 and try again.

Wasn't there an article back when Tavares signed where it'd estimated of the $70M of total $77 million in SB money, he netted an extra $8-9 million over the duration of 7 years?

So Matthews likely netted an extra $5-6 million this way.

IMO that is the Leafs biggest draw/incentive for star players.
I'm sure Leafs management will waive that offer of 85-90% in SB if McDavid goes to UFA.

The article was misleading. It was about Tavares claiming us residency. Locking his money up until he retires. Deferring taxes and then moving to a tax free location in the states and taking it out on an allowance.

It’s no where near the same asd cash in hand.

It’s a whole thing but it’s a lot more complicated than cash in hand like florida

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

A top 3-5 all time goal scorer by 25 took Jonathan toews money without being saddled with years 33-34

I fully believe he plans to leave and go to the states at 31. And that’s his right

Set some leafs records. Try to win a cup. Get assets back when he is 30 and try again.



The article was misleading. It was about Tavares claiming us residency. Locking his money up until he retires. Deferring taxes and then moving to a tax free location in the states and taking it out on an allowance.

It’s no where near the same asd cash in hand.

It’s a whole thing but it’s a lot more complicated than cash in hand like florida

I added the article into previous post but not a tax expert by any means.

I'd think he still prefers one big lump sum payment every July over the bi weekly payments.

As you said, money in hand today is better.

 

[Mr Positive]

Glad he’s signed. Those wanting more years is fair, but shorter terms generally favor the team. If he keeps getting paid, its bc hes worth it.

Shorter term is not better for the team. Remember that it was the Leafs that pushed for 8 years on the deal and Matthews wanted 3. Are you saying the ultimate you'd want is just one year deals every year?

Longer term favors the team because of the back half of the contract. When guys like Crosby, Ovechkin etc signed expensive deals their teams suffered for a while but then contended again as the cap percentage came down in the late years of the deal. Matthews cut out the bargain years from his deal.

It also adds the ultimate positive quality: stability. The team has an easier time building something if they know their 1C is guaranteed to be there. More players will be willing to waive their NTCs and sign as UFAs if they know for sure that the team won't fall apart soon. Just like how the team wanted Matthews for 8 years they'd want that for Marner and Nylander too but now the odds of that have gone down

 

[Jared Dunn]

Shorter term is not better for the team. Remember that it was the Leafs that pushed for 8 years on the deal and Matthews wanted 3. Are you saying the ultimate you'd want is just one year deals every year?

Longer term favors the team because of the back half of the contract. When guys like Crosby, Ovechkin etc signed expensive deals their teams suffered for a while but then contended again as the cap percentage came down in the late years of the deal. Matthews cut out the bargain years from his deal.

It also adds the ultimate positive quality: stability. The team has an easier time building something if they know their 1C is guaranteed to be there. More players will be willing to waive their NTCs and sign as UFAs if they know for sure that the team won't fall apart soon. Just like how the team wanted Matthews for 8 years they'd want that for Marner and Nylander too but now the odds of that have gone down

If the Leafs still have not won or even made he finals by the last year of this upcoming deal the "core 4" has utterly failed and they need to go scorched earth. That is made infinitely harder with an additional four years (and larger AAV) so that's the benefit for the Leafs. Not to mention staying healthy has been a legit concern


Contract is not a win by any means for the Leafs but what were they gonna do, let him walk and get 15 million elsewhere, immediately revert back to the mid 2010s? Dubas is a good GM but he let his sweet little boys take him to task on the first negotiation and gave them basically 100% of the leverage this time around

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Glad he’s signed. Those wanting more years is fair, but shorter terms generally favor the team. If he keeps getting paid, its bc hes worth it.

Shorter term for star players in their prime is almost always worse for the team but better for the player.
Which explains why the Leafs were pushing for 8 years and Matthews camp wanted 4 years.

 

[Mr Positive]

If the Leafs still have not won or even made he finals by the last year of this upcoming deal the "core 4" has utterly failed and they need to go scorched earth. That is made infinitely harder with an additional four years (and larger AAV) so that's the benefit for the Leafs. Not to mention staying healthy has been a legit concern


Contract is not a win by any means for the Leafs but what were they gonna do, let him walk and get 15 million elsewhere, immediately revert back to the mid 2010s? Dubas is a good GM but he let his sweet little boys take him to task on the first negotiation and gave them basically 100% of the leverage this time around

You evaluation of the Leafs situation has the luxury of a fan. It's not easy to take a great winning squad like the Leafs (even if it is just regular season) and blow it up. Every single team and GM would keep this team together if they had the same situation, and just fine tune it until it worked. At the very least, they would keep Matthews. Even if you are blowing it up you want to have the 1C to re start.

I do agree that the core 4 has failed though. Getting stomped by Florida was not close to okay. But the answer seems to be to trade Nylander and let him be a 1c somewhere. Get a solid Dman(imo a deal around Pesce is close to perfect). Maybe the Leafs plan is to just go status quo and wait out Tavares' deal. That's potentially enough, although it appears that they are planning on signing McDavid in 4 years so maybe they are never going to take the defense seriously

 

[Jared Dunn]

You evaluation of the Leafs situation has the luxury of a fan. It's not easy to take a great winning squad like the Leafs (even if it is just regular season) and blow it up. Every single team and GM would keep this team together if they had the same situation, and just fine tune it until it worked. At the very least, they would keep Matthews. Even if you are blowing it up you want to have the 1C to re start.

Trading a 30 year old Matthews after 12 seasons of trying is very different than trading a 25/26 year old Matthews when the team is still very firmly in the competitive window - blowing it up with a guy making double digits on the wrong side of 30 as the centrepiece makes no sense. Obviously impossible to say where the team is in 4 years but undeniably having Matthews on a shorter term deal gives them more flexibility to evaluate where they are. Their defence was also fine last year and far from their main issue in the playoffs

 

[keglu]

Shorter term for star players in their prime is almost always worse for the team but better for the player.
Which explains why the Leafs were pushing for 8 years and Matthews camp wanted 4 years.

This is dependant on player age. First Matthews deal obiously was better for thim, this one is probably 50/50. In 5 years shorter deal will clearly favour team over player.

 

[TS Quint]

I think Matthews hopes to sign a big retirement contract, but if I’m the Leafs, I try to give him another 4 year deal.

If he won’t budge on the 8 year term, I’m offering a much lower AAV.

And if they can’t come to terms with one of those scenarios? And they haven’t won a cup yet? That’s the time to retool.

It's not though. The Leafs will still be a good team in 4 years. They won't go into a rebuild. They will do like the Pens and Caps are doing. They will sign their stars to big 8 year deals and who cares about the last 3 years because that's when they go into a rebuild. No team just throws away the playoffs to rebuild.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This is dependant on player age. First Matthews deal obiously was better for thim, this one is probably 50/50. In 5 years shorter deal will clearly favour team over player.

I disagree. History tells us that for elite players it’s generally the opposite.
And that is why Leafs management (wanting 8 years) pushed for a longer deal and Matthews and his agent (originally wanting 3 years) pushed for a shorter deal.
With the cap going up in 5 years he will get a long term rich deal after this one expires. The only real risk for him is injury or decline in play but as an elite player the decline in play is much less of a risk.

 

[Voight]

Gotta say, really don't get the crying over the Matthews contract. Guy has been underwhelming in the playoffs for sure but you're getting a top-notch 1C for at least the first 12 seasons of his career. He might be a bit of a mercenary but so what? Just pay your top guys and look for bargains on the lower end of the line-up, not on your top line.

Would love to see what the armchair GMs in this thread would've done.

Not sign him? Like Jesus, hes a top player who wants to stick around. Maybe 8 years would've been better but they're still keeping him for another 4 years on top of this year. Its not like he signed a 2 year deal.

 

[TS Quint]

I mean of course he is going to stay when he gets overpaid like this with the most favorable possible terms.

He also gets to play in a market that doesn't hold him responsible for his playoff performance. All the money none of the responsibility.

 

[Voight]

Signing bonuses are taxed at your home location. Matthews can try a whole bunch of tax gymnastics to not double pay in canada us. But he still pays taxes.

That’s why they are such a big deal in no state tax locations.

Normally yoh have to pay by jurisdiction and can be taxed over a bunch of places. But when stamkos takes all his money in sb

He pays “Tampa taxes” ok all 82 games. Not just 41 home games

I do think there are more teams that would pay full bonuses than 3.

But it is a definite advantage

He does, but @Hockey Outsider has a good breakdown of how Matthews pays as little as possible in taxes due to having Arizona as his primary residence.

 

[TS Quint]

Glad he’s signed. Those wanting more years is fair, but shorter terms generally favor the team. If he keeps getting paid, its bc hes worth it.

So you are calling Treliving stupid because he wanted more years and also Matthews agent is stupid because he wanted less years. That's some 4D chess you're playing here.