Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[HockeyVirus]

The same folks in here saying they would have signed him to 8 years at 15-16 would be saying the Leafs should have given Matthews this deal had it happened that way. Y'all are so predictable.

 

[Divine]

I actually said the cap was going to go up 25%, and even that is probably a low estimation. $15M of a $106.5M cap is just over 14% of the cap. $16M is just over 15%. So no. It's not a higher cap percentage than his new contact.

Keep. On. Swinging.

Oh, I see the problem - you don't actually understand the salary cap. The maximum the salary cap can go up is 5% a year, so 25% in 5 years. I don't see how the maximum is 'a low estimation' but here we are - HfBoards in a nutshell.

So you're arguing Matthews is going to get the same cap percentage despite being older but for some reason this is a bad deal today? How? The entire argument makes no sense.

You could argue the Leafs will regret it in 5 years, and maybe they will. How does that make it a bad deal today?

15-16M in 5 years could be what 13.25M is today. But instead of getting Matthew for 13.25M in year 6, you have to resign him for that equivalent. Assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff. Not only that, he isn't even worth 13.25M today since Mack who is better is signed for 12.6M.

If the cap raises the maximum every year - it's possible. It's also possible he doesn't. I am betting he doesn't, because it's unheard of - you are betting he does because you think he will.

Also - yes, MacKinnon signed a more team friendly deal - that doesn't make Matthews contract bad.

MacKinnon signed 15.27 X 8
Matthews signed 15.87 X 4

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

The same folks in here saying they would have signed him to 8 years at 15-16 would be saying the Leafs should have given Matthews this deal had it happened that way. Y'all are so predictable.

Looking for all the folks in here saying they would've signed him to 8 x $15M.

 

[Nineteen67]

If he's worth more than 13.25M today, whats Mack worth LOL? How is that a good contract when better players are signed for less.

Why did MacK sign for than McD?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Oh, I see the problem - you don't actually understand the salary cap. The maximum the salary cap can go up is 5% a year, so 25% in 5 years. I don't see how the maximum is 'a low estimation' but here we are - HfBoards in a nutshell.

So you're arguing Matthews is going to get the same cap percentage despite being older but for some reason this is a bad deal today? How? The entire argument makes no sense.

You could argue the Leafs will regret it in 5 years, and maybe they will. How does that make it a bad deal today?

Oh, I see the problem - you don't actually understand how math works. The maximum the salary cap can go up is 5% a year. 5% of the cap... THAT YEAR.

A 25% increase of the cap from $83.5M is $104.375M. A 5% increase of the cap annually from $83.5M is $106.5M. So yes. It would be higher than 25% with max increases.

Keep. Embarrassing. Yourself.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

1.) him not falling off a cliff is an assumption. He has had multiple wrist injuries since 2029. His shot was no where near what it was. He was still a great player. But no guarantee he will not decline.

2.) Matthews in his prime has signed for 14-15% of the cap as the leading goal scorer in the NHL.
The cap is speculated to go uo
87.5, 92.5, 96, 100 (can only go up by 5% or something per year).

IF he stays at Auston Matthews current play. He would be looking at 15 million…. Maybe? Probably 14.14.5

If he decides he wants out (karlson) you can’t trade him with big term. Better to trade at 29.

How many 8 year ufa deals worth 14-15% of the cap worked?

Benn? Seguin? Bob? Price? Karlson? Toews?

I can’t think of a good one that wasn’t a now illegal deal like crosby.

At all.

Ya and you're assuming TO won't be willing to sign him to that 8 year deal. History shows otherwise. Watch one of Marner/Nylander go for 8 years.

 

[BillPrep]

Name the other selfish players so I can look at their contracts for reference.

Auston Matthews, for one...let me know what you find.

keep in mind, I didn't say Auston isn't worth it (just like Crosby was worth WAY more than what he took), just that he is selfish and cares more about the name/number than he does the crest.

 

[Divine]

Oh, I see the problem - you don't actually understand how math works. The maximum the salary cap can go up is 5% a year. 5% of the cap... THAT YEAR.

A 25% increase of the cap at $83.5M is $104.375M. A 5% increase of the cap annually from $83.5M is $106.5M. So yes. It would be higher than 25% with max increases.

Keep. Embarrassing. Yourself.

So how is that a low estimation?

I understand you're using compound interest. Let's see, the cap, compounded 5% (maximum) annually over 5 years is 27.63%.

You argued 25% of the cap is a low estimation.

How on earth is 90% of the maximum the cap can rise 5 years straight a low estimation? If the cap doesn't rise the maximum one year, you can no longer compound that. If 90% of the maximum is a low estimation - what's a high estimation - 200% of the maximum the cap can grow? Solid point.

You're basically arguing the cap raises the maximum every year and saying it's a low estimation. Just admit you didn't understand how the cap worked until I pointed it out.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Where are all the Leaf fans that said Dubas was a genius to sign Matthews to a 5 year deal so he can then sign an 8 year deal to get him to age 34 at a decent price?

Whats so hard to understand that Matthews and his agent basically dictates the term and its not the leafs.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Won't go all the way back since it's harder to find cap hit lists pre 2015, but here are the last 8 winners + Toronto next year. Ideally it seems like you want your top 4 to be 40-44% of the cap. Toronto will be at 49%.

			1		2		3		4		Total	% of Cap
2016	$71,400,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	45.17%
2017	$73,000,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	44.18%
2018	$75,000,000	Washington	Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	Evgeny Kuznetsov	$7,800,000	Nicklas Backstrom	$6,700,000	Braden Holtby	$6,100,000	$30,138,462	40.18%
2019	$79,500,000	St.Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	$7,500,000	Ryan O'Reilly	$7,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$6,500,000	Alex Steen	$5,750,000	$27,250,000	34.28%
2020	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	Ryan McDonagh	$6,750,000	$32,625,000	40.03%
2021	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Andrei Vasilveskyi	$9,500,000	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	$35,375,000	43.40%
2022	$81,500,000	Colorado	Miko Rantanen	$9,250,000	Cale Makar	$9,000,000	Gabriel Landeskog	$7,000,000	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	$31,550,000	38.71%
2023	$82,500,000	Vegas	Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	Mark Stone	$9,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$8,800,000	William Karlsson	$5,900,000	$34,200,000	41.45%
2024	$83,500,000	Toronto	Auston Matthews	$11,640,250	John Tavares	$11,000,000	Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	Morgan Reilly	$7,500,000	$41,043,250	49.15%

Thanks for this. I'll see if I can find some data for previous seasons.

It's even more striking when you look at the percentage of the salary cap allocated to the top three players. Heading into next year, Toronto has 40.2% of the cap going to three players. This is substantially higher than the eight most recent Stanley Cup champions (who averaged 32.5%). The Leafs are more than 4% ahead of the next closest team.

It's not just the percent going to the top three players, it's the positional breakdown. Seven of the eight teams listed here have at least one defenseman or goalie in the top three. The only other team that has three forwards was the 2018 Capitals. Even then, they only had 32.1% of the cap going to their top three forwards (~8% less than Toronto).

One last point. I also calculated how much of the cap was allocated to the team's top three forwards. The average among the eight most recent Cup winners was 30.8%. The highest was the 2016 Penguins (35.0% - and this includes a top ten player in hockey history in Crosby). The Leafs will be at 40.2%.

If the Leafs are successful in the playoffs, Treliving will be given credit for a highly unconventional approach to managing the salary cap. I don't think that Matthews' new contract is objectively bad, but I do question, in the context of how the team has been built, whether it's conducive to winning playoff games.

(For the record, I live in Toronto and would love for the Leafs to prove me wrong - just that I'm skeptical based on the evidence).

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

So how is that a low estimation?

I understand you're using compound interest. Let's see, the cap, compounded 5% (maximum) annually over 5 years is 27.63%.

You argued 25% of the cap is a low estimation.

How on earth is 90% of the maximum the cap can rise 5 years straight a low estimation? If the cap doesn't rise the maximum one year, you can no longer compound that. If 90% of the maximum is a low estimation - what's a high estimation - 200% of the maximum the cap can grow? Solid point.

27.63 > 25

Make sense now?

 

[Divine]

27.63 > 25

Make sense now?

No, it still doesn't make sense because it's not a low estimation.

You're arguing 90% of the maximal possible cap is a low estimation? What is a high estimation?

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

The problem with this contract isn’t the term. The term is good for the Leafs. Imagine if they had only signed Tavares to 4 years? They’d be much happier today.

Besides, if they don’t win in the next 4 years it’ll be time to blow it up and start over.

The problem with this contract is that the AAV is too high. Matthews is coming off a down year and yet another disappearing act in a playoff series.

12.25 would have been a much better number. He’s in between Pastrnak and MacKinnon and should be paid accordingly. And every million counts.

And honestly I think MacKinnon at 12.6 is too much, but at least you can say some of that is a thank you for winning the cup and backpay for being underpaid on his last deal. They got their championship so whatever. Matthews has delivered nothing and has never been underpaid.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

No, it still doesn't make sense because it's not a low estimation.

You're arguing 90% of the max is a low estimation?

Yes.

... Because 27.63 > 25.

It'll click at some point.

 

[Divine]

Yes.

... Because 27.63 > 25.

It'll click at some point.

And the cap has never rose that much ever

So you're basically guaranteeing the cap rises the maximum every year for 5 years.

Want to make a bet? I'll take a bet at your low estimation of 25% to put the odds in your favour. Since 2% under the maximum the cap can rise accumulative over 5 years is now considered a low estimation.

 

[Legion34]

Ya and you're assuming TO won't be willing to sign him to that 8 year deal. History shows otherwise. Watch one of Marner/Nylander go for 8 years.

What does willing to sign for have to do with anything?

Lots of teams were willing to sign clarkson to that brutal deal.

Nylander and marner don’t have massive injury histories.

I don’t think Toronto is willing to sign willy for 15% of the cap for 8 years.

Marner again I wouldn’t want it….. but as a leaf fan. Matthews injury history scarss me.

His 41 in 50 year he literally couldn’t hold a stick with 2 hands for about 10 gems.

His 60 goal season he has wrist surgery

Last year he had many injuries.

I don’t think he will age well myself. I have said this for a long time.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

And the cap has never rose that much ever

So you're basically guaranteeing the cap rises the maximum every year for 5 years.

Want to make a bet?

You're absolutely right that the cap has never rose that much ever... Did you know the cap has also never been frozen like this before?

You do understand that the cap has been frozen because the players have to pay owners a debt, right? Not because revenue has frozen?

Based on the league's claim that they exceeded $6B in revenue for 22-23, the cap next year should be around $93.75M. It's not. Because the COVID debt is still owed and the cap is frozen. Which means guess what? They're going to be making max cap hike jumps for years to catch up.

But who knows, maybe revenue growth will slow to a crawl. Good bet with the way they're making money hand over fist in sports betting sponsorships.

Please, continue to educate me on how the cap works, though.

 

[Divine]

You're absolutely right that the cap has never rose that much ever... Did you know the cap has also never been frozen like this before?

You do understand that the cap has been frozen because the players have to pay owners a debt, right? Not because revenue has frozen?

Based on the league's claim that they exceeded $6B in revenue for 22-23, the cap next year should be around $93.75M.

But who knows, maybe revenue growth will slow to a crawl. Good bet with the way they're making money hand over fist in sports betting sponsorships.

It doesn't matter, if one year the cap doesn't increase the maximum - you lose, and that's your low estimation.

I'll take the bet, since the cap next year is already estimated under the 5% you're anticipating for 5 years straight.

Remember, this is your low estimation - so of course you think it'll happen. I think even you realize how ridiculous your take has been now.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

What does willing to sign for have to do with anything?

Lots of teams were willing to sign clarkson to that brutal deal.

Nylander and marner don’t have massive injury histories.

I don’t think Toronto is willing to sign willy for 15% of the cap for 8 years.

Marner again I wouldn’t want it….. but as a leaf fan. Matthews injury history scarss me.

His 41 in 50 year he literally couldn’t hold a stick with 2 hands for about 10 gems.

His 60 goal season he has wrist surgery

Last year he had many injuries.

I don’t think he will age well myself. I have said this for a long time.

Of course its relevant. The leafs would love to have all of their core players signed for 8 years. They've given 7 to Tavares, 8 to Reilly. Hell, they gave 6 years! to jake MUZZIN LOL. Matthews is playing the leafs to maximize his career earnings. Nothing more, nothing less. If Matthews declines significantly in 5 years, it would only be because the leafs were "lucky" to not have made that mistake. But then again, losing your franchise player at such a young age is bad anyways. Its LOSE-LOSE. There is ZERO bright side here.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

It doesn't matter, if one year the cap doesn't increase the maximum - you lose, and that's your low estimation.

I'll take the bet, since the cap next year is already estimated under the 5% you're anticipating for 5 years straight.

Remember, this is your low estimation - so of course you think it'll happen. I think even you realize how ridiculous your take has been now.

$6B+ in revenues this year and the league has averaged about $250M increases in revenue every year. That'd put the cap right around $113M in five years, which is $6.5M over what max increases would allow for.

But sure! It's definitely not gonna increase by the maximums.

 

[Divine]

$6B+ in revenues this year and the league has averaged about $250M increases in revenue every year. That'd put the cap right around $113M in five years, which is $6.5M over what max increases would allow for.

But sure! It's definitely not gonna increase by the maximums.

So you'll take the bet? Let's make an avatar bet then?

 

[mlzy]

What does willing to sign for have to do with anything?

Lots of teams were willing to sign clarkson to that brutal deal.

Nylander and marner don’t have massive injury histories.

I don’t think Toronto is willing to sign willy for 15% of the cap for 8 years.

Marner again I wouldn’t want it….. but as a leaf fan. Matthews injury history scarss me.

His 41 in 50 year he literally couldn’t hold a stick with 2 hands for about 10 gems.

His 60 goal season he has wrist surgery

Last year he had many injuries.

I don’t think he will age well myself. I have said this for a long time.

Nobody was lined up to overpay Clarkson!

 

[Legion34]

Of course its relevant. The leafs would love to have all of their core players signed for 8 years. They've given 7 to Tavares, 8 to Reilly. Hell, they gave 6 years! to jake MUZZIN LOL. Matthews is playing the leafs to maximize his career earnings. Nothing more, nothing less. If Matthews declines significantly in 5 years, it would only be because the leafs were "lucky" to not have made that mistake. But then again, losing your franchise player at such a young age is bad anyways. Its LOSE-LOSE. There is ZERO bright side here.

Huh?
1.)They didn’t give muzzin 6 years
2.) dubas signed all those contracts save matthews
3.) no one wants to lose a franchise player at 29, 30, 34
4.) that doesn’t change that many top franchise players do not live up to their their contracts… outside of state tax underpays

Matthews absolutely wants to max his earnings.
He absolutely took fair deals at shorter terms to get more.
It didn’t really work out for him last time
It might not work out for hi. This time.

He may want to resign for 14% in 4 years. That would be like 1 million more. Not brutal. He may want to be traded. Much easier at 29 than 33.

Who knows. Bottom line is the leafs have him for his prime at 14-15% kf the cap. Which is fair.

 

[Golden_Jet]

So how is that a low estimation?

I understand you're using compound interest. Let's see, the cap, compounded 5% (maximum) annually over 5 years is 27.63%.

You argued 25% of the cap is a low estimation.

How on earth is 90% of the maximum the cap can rise 5 years straight a low estimation? If the cap doesn't rise the maximum one year, you can no longer compound that. If 90% of the maximum is a low estimation - what's a high estimation - 200% of the maximum the cap can grow? Solid point.

You're basically arguing the cap raises the maximum every year and saying it's a low estimation. Just admit you didn't understand how the cap worked until I pointed it out.

You both aren’t acknowledging the MOU expires after the 25/26 season, and a new CBA needs to be negotiated.
So for the 5% maximum , we have no idea what it becomes to start the 26/27 season.

 

[KaN19]

100+ total pages dedicated to the Leafs LTIRing at mediocre goalie with injury problems (Murray), and re-signing their franchise center (Matthews). Any other team makes these types of moves and they don't get more than 20 cumulative pages of discussion.

We are absolutely massive. Why are there so many Leaf threads on the main boards? Because the rest of the league can't stop talking about.