Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[FriendlyGhost92]

Assuming the cap increases at the 5% maximum for the next five years, $15M is only 14% of the cap.

... It's really not all that crazy, unless Matthews' play quality falls off a cliff, in which case he's not playing up to his $13.25M cap hit.

 

[Divine]

Assuming the cap increases at the 5% maximum for the next five years, $15M is only 14% of the cap.

... It's really not all that crazy, unless Matthews' play quality falls off a cliff, in which case he's not playing up to his $13.25M cap hit.

And no player has ever got 14% of the cap over 30. Players have got a higher cap on a shorter term and lower age before though.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I disagree.

I think he get's in the 11-12M range if he declines at the same rate as other superstars did after 30.

Quick question...

... If Matthews is going to decline over the course of this short term deal where he's currently the highest paid player in the league, how is it a good deal?

 

[Divine]

Quick question...

... If Matthews is going to decline over the course of this short term deal where he's currently the highest paid player in the league, how is it a good deal?

Because it's not 8 years of decline - do you not understand that?

Most players peak in their early to mid 20's. Gretzky/Crosby/Malkin/Orr, etc.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Because it's not 8 years of decline - do you not understand that?

Most players peak in their early to mid 20's. Gretzky/Crosby/Malkin/Orr, etc.

Just 4 years. So you envision that Matthews won’t live up to his contract or cap hit. Yikes.

 

[Divine]

Just 4 years. So you envision that Matthews won’t live up to his contract or cap hit. Yikes.

When did I say that?

I think Matthews is worth more than 13.25M today - I think the Leafs got a good contract. I've consistently said that on an 8 year deal you underpay at the beginning and overpay at the end.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Because it's not 8 years of decline - do you not understand that?

Most players peak in their early to mid 20's. Gretzky/Crosby/Malkin/Orr, etc.

You're literally saying that in 4 years, as a 30 year old, Matthews' will only be worth $11M - $12M, under a much higher cap, while currently being paid $13.25M.

Which means his play will have significantly declined below the value of $13.25M before that contract is over.

What the hell isn't clicking, here?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

When did I say that?

I think Matthews is worth more than 13.25M today - I think the Leafs got a good contract. I've consistently said that on an 8 year deal you underpay at the beginning and overpay at the end.

If he's worth more than 13.25M today, whats Mack worth LOL? How is that a good contract when better players are signed for less.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

When did I say that?

I think Matthews is worth more than 13.25M today - I think the Leafs got a good contract.

Of course you do. Every move the Leafs make is a good in your eyes.

You’re saying that Matthews won’t be worth the contract over 8 years. Hence implying he’s a declining player. Who’s making the most in the NHL.

But yes, great contract.

 

[Divine]

You're literally saying that in 4 years, as a 30 year old, Matthews' will only be worth $11M - $12M, under a much higher cap, while currently being paid $13.25M.

Which means his play will have significantly declined below the value of $13.25M before that contract is over.

What the hell isn't clicking, here?

It's not significantly declining - I'm assuming he signs for a longer term.

Are you asking what Matthews gets on a 1 year contract at 31 or a long-term contract? Because on a long term contract you're paying him until he's 38 so the cap hit should be lower - agree?

If he's worth more than 13.25M today, whats Mack worth LOL? How is that a good contract when better players are signed for less.

MacKinnon is worth more than 13.25M today - MacKinnon took a great deal.

You're under the assumption that if the player isn't the most underpaid then his contract is automatically bad.

 

[TheDoldrums]

If he's worth more than 13.25M today, whats Mack worth LOL? How is that a good contract when better players are signed for less.

Better players are signed for less than MacKinnon. How is that a good contract when better players are signed for less?

Because all stars are underpaid in the NHL...

 

[GirardSpinorama]

It's not significantly declining - I'm assuming he signs for a longer term.

Are you asking what Matthews gets on a 1 year contract at 31 or a long-term contract? Because on a long term contract you're paying him until he's 38 so the cap hit should be lower - agree?

Ah yes, we all love the age 38 deals. I'm sure you LOVED the Engvall and Kadri deals.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

It's not significantly declining - I'm assuming he signs for a longer term.

Are you asking what Matthews gets on a 1 year contract at 31 or a long-term contract? Because on a long term contract you're paying him until he's 38 so the cap hit should be lower - agree?

Your initial assessment was not about the term of his contract. You literally said you were basing it on a decline in play...

I disagree.

I think he get's in the 11-12M range if he declines at the same rate as other superstars did after 30.

 

[Divine]

Ah yes, we all love the age 38 deals. I'm sure you LOVED the Engvall and Kadri deals.

I have no idea what you're talking about here.

So what do you think Matthews next contract is going to. Give me the dollars and the term and I'll tell you if I disagree or disagree.

He could take the Iginla and Thornton route and sign another short contract, but he'd be signing at an older age than both of them.

 

[Legion34]

But I don't get why a team would want Matthews at 29?

Leafs dont want hin once hes 30 so why would another team pay big assets to get him rather than wait and see if hes worth signing as a UFA

If we were going to trade him his value this summer was higher than it will be at 29-30 barring him proving he is a franchise guy who ages well.

I don't see how we dont either give him 8 years after this deal if the team has any succsess or he walks as a ufa after another failed 5 year run

There are a few ways this can go really….

1.) he pays well. Wants to res sign. Wants to sign long term at 15% of the cap… probably about 15 million

2.) he plays well. Wants to go to the states after setting records. Trade him with 1 year left where he will extend

3.) he does not play well. Wants to re-sign. You get him for a discount.

4.) he does not play well he does not want to re-sign.
Heck of a a lot easier to move Matthews with 1 year left and low salary. Then 4 years at 13.25

The only way 8 years works is if you sign Matthews…. He magically plays well until 34 and you decide not to re-sign him. Then his trade value is pretty bad at 34 compared to 29.

I personally bet 2 is the most likely. I think he wants to set the records and go. This allows for that.

Bottom line.

How many 8 year real s at high cap have worked out?

I mean suter praise bough out. Price. Bob. Karlson. Doughty. Benn. Toews. Even Kane. Huberdeau. Etc.

This gives the flexibility n. There is nothing to say you cannot sign him at 31. But most of the big deals tend not to work out from 33-35.

 

[Divine]

Your initial assessment was not about the term of his contract. You literally said you were basing it on a decline in play...

That's because the entire argument is Matthews next contract is going to be less. I do not believe Matthews takes a 1 year deal at age 31, do you?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I have no idea what you're talking about here.

So what do you think Matthews next contract is going to. Give me the dollars and the term and I'll tell you if I disagree or disagree.

He could take the Iginla and Thornton route and sign another short contract, but he'd be signing at an older age than both of them.

We're all very clear that you have no idea what I'm talking about here lol.

I really don't care if you agree or not. It's blatantly obvious at this point that you've got your head in the clouds about this whole thing.

Leafs fans keep sitting here talking about "What else could the team do? He had them over a barrel. They have to sign what he wants!" And now you're saying "Well if he wants a longer term deal we can convince him to take less money!" You think he keeps signing short term deals because he's NOT trying to make as much money as he can?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I have no idea what you're talking about here.

So what do you think Matthews next contract is going to. Give me the dollars and the term and I'll tell you if I disagree or disagree.

He could take the Iginla and Thornton route and sign another short contract, but he'd be signing at an older age than both of them.

14-14.5M for 7-8 years assuming he isn't completely broken down by age 31. The guy is trying to maximize his career earnings, this is the best way to do it.

We're all very clear that you have no idea what I'm talking about here lol.

I really don't care if you agree or not. It's blatantly obvious at this point that you've got your head in the clouds about this whole thing.

Leafs fans keep sitting here talking about "What else could the team do? He had them over a barrel. They have to sign what he wants!" And now you're saying "Well if he wants a longer term deal we can convince him to take less money!" You think he keeps signing short term deals because he's NOT trying to make as much money as he can?

Nah, clearly the leafs don't want to maximize cap space during their short window and care about the cap in 5+ years LOL.

 

[hamzarocks]

There are a few ways this can go really….

1.) he pays well. Wants to res sign. Wants to sign long term at 15% of the cap… probably about 15 million

2.) he plays well. Wants to go to the states after setting records. Trade him with 1 year left where he will extend

3.) he does not play well. Wants to re-sign. You get him for a discount.

4.) he does not play well he does not want to re-sign.
Heck of a a lot easier to move Matthews with 1 year left and low salary. Then 4 years at 13.25

The only way 8 years works is if you sign Matthews…. He magically plays well until 34 and you decide not to re-sign him. Then his trade value is pretty bad at 34 compared to 29.

I personally bet 2 is the most likely. I think he wants to set the records and go. This allows for that.

Bottom line.

How many 8 year real s at high cap have worked out?

I mean suter praise bough out. Price. Bob. Karlson. Doughty. Benn. Toews. Even Kane. Huberdeau. Etc.

This gives the flexibility n. There is nothing to say you cannot sign him at 31. But most of the big deals tend not to work out from 33-35.

Basically every 8 year signing of a high impact player has worked out

Crosby (top 10 player all time) so 13 uear deal worked out

Kane he lived up to his deal and was a franchise player till this year. 7 out of 8 years where he was a top 3-5 winger at worst.

Ovechkin his mega deal worked out with him winning rockets and heing a top 10-15 player through the life of the deal.

Mcdavid - expected but his first 8 year deal has worked, his next if he signs likely still sees a top 10ish player at worst

Mackinnon- of course 8 years is a ling time, but year 1 he was a top 3 player in the NHL and had one of his ebst individual years in the league

Matthews is a borderline generational guy according to most. Banking on him being a top 10ish player until 34 isnt a high stakes bet. It should be the expected. At 13.25M for ages 32 to 34 and a say the 10th best player in the NHL over that time we are better than option 1 for sure, where he is a top 10ish player and we pay him 15-16M instead of having 2-3M savings for 3 yers of contention

Every team enjoys this but the leafs. Its the way matthews operates, it clearly hurts our ability to contend along with him being a poor playoffs player.

He needs to be a 50 goal/50 assist guy for both reg season and playoffs on this deal and we need team succsess for it to be worthwhile.

 

[Divine]

14-14.5M for 7-8 years assuming he isn't completely broken down by age 31. The guy is trying to maximize his career earnings, this is the best way to do it.

There's no way he gets 14M for 7-8 years until 38 or 39. If he does, I hope it's not the Leafs paying him. At that age the Leafs are probably rebuilding anyway because Matthews is the youngest player in their core... unless they strike gold on the lottery or draft for a couple years.

We're all very clear that you have no idea what I'm talking about here lol.

I really don't care if you agree or not. It's blatantly obvious at this point that you've got your head in the clouds about this whole thing.

Leafs fans keep sitting here talking about "What else could the team do? He had them over a barrel. They have to sign what he wants!" And now you're saying "Well if he wants a longer term deal we can convince him to take less money!" You think he keeps signing short term deals because he's NOT trying to make as much money as he can?

So you're saying Matthews signs short term or long term. Give me your prediction for his next contract and term. I can't debate with you when you make no statements.

You're saying Matthews gets more on his next contract. What is it? What is the term. YOU tell me - because you're the one arguing it, not me.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

There's no way he gets 14M for 7-8 years. If he does, I hope it's not the Leafs paying him. At that age the Leafs are probably rebuilding anyway because Matthews is the youngest player in their core... unless they strike gold on the lottery one year.



So you're saying Matthews signs short term or long term. Give me your prediction for his next contract and term. I can't debate with you when you make no statements.

You're saying Matthews gets more on his next contract. What is it? What is the term. YOU tell me - because you're the one arguing it, not me.

I really don't give a shit what the term is lol. The cap will likely be up 25% by that time. His play will have to significantly decline over the span of this contract for him NOT to get more money.

 

[Divine]

I really don't give a shit what the term is lol. The cap will likely be up 25% by that time. His play will have to significantly decline over the span of this contract for him NOT to get more money.

So make a prediction.

You've been talking a lot about how much more he's going to get, but you're not giving us a contract.

What exactly am I supposed to say to that - I don't know what you're thinking and you won't communicate the numbers in your head.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

If he gets a major injury or his body breaks down then he sure isn't maximizing anything. I get it, he gambled on himself. But it’s called gambling for a reason.

It's worth the gamble seeing that he has already made an absolutely insane amount of money already and he's still so young... He is already grossly rich but he's trying to make it that he's absurdly grossly wealthy by the time he retires when he's mid 30s ish

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

So make a prediction.

You've been talking a lot about how much more he's going to get, but you're not giving us a contract.

What exactly am I supposed to say to that - I don't know what you're thinking and you won't communicate the numbers in your head.

Pretty sure I said $15M - $16M like... 20 pages ago?

 

[Divine]

Pretty sure I said $15M - $16M like... 20 pages ago?

I'm sorry I didn't realize you were here arguing for 20 pages, I had other things to do. Sorry I wasn't able to read all 60 pages for your response.

Okay, 15-16M over what term?

You are just arguing just to argue now. You bash people on what they speculate Matthews will be worth, when you already agreed it was speculation and impossible to know based on what salary cap will be, players effectiveness in 4 years etc. Its tiresome now.

Yes, both parties are speculating. It's a message board. I don't know what you're expecting here. Do you think one side holds all the answers and the other doesn't? You're free to leave instead of reading and responding to every post if you're tired