Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[Divine]

Colorado is quite the example considering they won the Cup in 2022 with MacKinnon making $6.3M...

You really just keep shooting yourself in the foot with these comparisons.

MacKinnon wasn't the Conn Smythe winner nor the player I was talking about. He was third on the team in scoring.

The Leafs have Nylander at 6.9M.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Yes, I'm sure Matthews wants that - I'm not sure if Toronto would be the team to pay that.

There's two questions I would have to that:

Is Matthews at 31 going to be a better player than Matthews today? (I believe no because the majority of players, even superstars, peak in their 20's)

If not,

Why would a team pay him more at 31 than during his prime years.

It's like if Tavares was a UFA last offseason - do you think he still gets 11M? Tavares last season was the same age Matthews is going to be when his contract extension ends.

What will the cap be in 4 years? I think there will be pressure on the Leafs to resign him. Franchise player, likely breaking franchise records by then etc

 

[Divine]

What will the cap be in 4 years? I think there will be pressure on the Leafs to resign him. Franchise player, likely breaking franchise records by then etc

No one knows, but Iginla took a 3 year contract at a higher cap percentage and then got the same money on a higher cap later - so it's not like it cost Calgary in any way. They also had the added benefit of walking away or signing him cheaper should Iginla steeply declined in those 3 years.

Usually players in their 30's make less. All of this speculation is contingent on Matthews being a similar player at 31 than he is today though - do you agree with that?

I'm assuming Matthews is a worse player at 31 than today, and the question becomes how much worse, and what is his contract worth at that time.

 

[KnightofBoston]

View attachment 738479

Very generous of you to call Patrick brown a 3rd liner

 

[AvroArrow]

MacKinnon wasn't the Conn Smythe winner nor the player I was talking about. He was third on the team in scoring.

The Leafs have Nylander at 6.9M.

Don't waste more of your time with him lol dude keeps shouting overpaid, still hasn't mentioned the amount. He's not here to actually have a discussion, he just wants to keep shouting "Overpaid and they can never compete with his deal!"

Like ok, so what amount should they have signed him for to make a contending roster ? And it's crickets.

Some people are just here to hate, nothing else to it.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

MacKinnon wasn't the Conn Smythe winner nor the player I was talking about. He was third on the team in scoring.

The Leafs have Nylander at 6.9M.

Nylander is the Leafs 6th highest paid player.

You're really convincing me that they can win under this cap structure!

Don't waste more of your time with him lol dude keeps shouting overpaid, still hasn't mentioned the amount. He's not here to actually have a discussion, he just wants to keep shouting "Overpaid and they can never compete with his deal!"

Like ok, so what amount should they have signed him for to make a contending roster ? And it's crickets.

Some people are just here to hate, nothing else to it.

Orly?

You're asking to manipulate the dollar amount when the dollar amount is much less the problem in comparison to the term lol.

If this contract were 8 years, you'd certainly find the trolls wanting to hate for the hell of it... But a lot less overall mocking of it.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

No one knows, but Iginla took a 3 year contract at a higher cap percentage and then got the same money on a higher cap later - so it's not like it cost Calgary in any way.

Usually players in their 30's make less. All of this speculation is contingent on Matthews being a similar player at 31 than he is today though - do you agree with that?

I'm assuming Matthews is a worse player at 31 than today, and the question becomes how much worse, and what is his contract worth at that time.

I don't think he would necessarily be worse at 31. Worse in what way, points production? He already had a 20 point swing this last year. 80 point C still has value.

 

[Divine]

Nylander is the Leafs 6th highest paid player.

You're really convincing me that they can win under this cap structure!

Yes, I believe they can. You believe they can't. We'll leave it at that.

The Leafs will obviously have to get surplus value from their cheaper contracts (Woll, Knies) and have their elite players perform up to par - but if they can get that, they absolutely have a chance.

 

[DaveMatthew]

This is an interesting analysis. Have you (or has anyone) looked at the cap allocation for the Cup winners back to 2006 (ie, what percentage of the cap was allocated to the top three players, and what were their positions)?

Won't go all the way back since it's harder to find cap hit lists pre 2015, but here are the last 8 winners + Toronto next year. Ideally it seems like you want your top 4 to be 40-44% of the cap. Toronto will be at 49%.

			1		2		3		4		Total	% of Cap
2016	$71,400,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	45.17%
2017	$73,000,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	44.18%
2018	$75,000,000	Washington	Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	Evgeny Kuznetsov	$7,800,000	Nicklas Backstrom	$6,700,000	Braden Holtby	$6,100,000	$30,138,462	40.18%
2019	$79,500,000	St.Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	$7,500,000	Ryan O'Reilly	$7,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$6,500,000	Alex Steen	$5,750,000	$27,250,000	34.28%
2020	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	Ryan McDonagh	$6,750,000	$32,625,000	40.03%
2021	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Andrei Vasilveskyi	$9,500,000	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	$35,375,000	43.40%
2022	$81,500,000	Colorado	Miko Rantanen	$9,250,000	Cale Makar	$9,000,000	Gabriel Landeskog	$7,000,000	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	$31,550,000	38.71%
2023	$82,500,000	Vegas	Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	Mark Stone	$9,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$8,800,000	William Karlsson	$5,900,000	$34,200,000	41.45%
2024	$83,500,000	Toronto	Auston Matthews	$11,640,250	John Tavares	$11,000,000	Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	Morgan Reilly	$7,500,000	$41,043,250	49.15%

 

[Divine]

I don't think he would necessarily be worse at 31. Worse in what way, points production? He already had a 20 point swing this last year. 80 point C still has value.

Yeah, worse in play. A slower player, contributes less to the game. Usually elite players lose some of their speed and their game changes to adjust.

Most star players (Crosby, Malkin, Gretzky, Orr, etc.) have their best seasons in their 20's because as your body ages - you lose quickness.

Tavares for example puts up similar points today as he did when the Leafs signed up or his last few years with the Islanders - but he's a slower player and is less effective during the games when he's not scoring. Does he still get 11M last offseason? In my opinion, no. He probably gets signed to a contract, maybe up to 8M, but I doubt he gets 11M.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Won't go all the way back since it's harder to find cap hit lists pre 2015, but here are the last 8 winners + Toronto next year. Ideally it seems like you want your top 4 to be 40-44% of the cap. Toronto will be at 49%.

			1		2		3		4		Total	% of Cap
2016	$71,400,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	45.17%
2017	$73,000,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	44.18%
2018	$75,000,000	Washington	Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	Evgeny Kuznetsov	$7,800,000	Nicklas Backstrom	$6,700,000	Braden Holtby	$6,100,000	$30,138,462	40.18%
2019	$79,500,000	St.Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	$7,500,000	Ryan O'Reilly	$7,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$6,500,000	Alex Steen	$5,750,000	$27,250,000	34.28%
2020	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	Ryan McDonagh	$6,750,000	$32,625,000	40.03%
2021	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Andrei Vasilveskyi	$9,500,000	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	$35,375,000	43.40%
2022	$81,500,000	Colorado	Miko Rantanen	$9,250,000	Cale Makar	$9,000,000	Gabriel Landeskog	$7,000,000	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	$31,550,000	38.71%
2023	$82,500,000	Vegas	Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	Mark Stone	$9,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$8,800,000	William Karlsson	$5,900,000	$34,200,000	41.45%
2024	$83,500,000	Toronto	Auston Matthews	$11,640,250	John Tavares	$11,000,000	Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	Morgan Reilly	$7,500,000	$41,043,250	49.15%

Thanks for that!
Interesting. If Nylander is re-signed the Leafs will not only have the highest cap tied up in four players but it will be the only one with all four being forwards.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yes, I believe they can. You believe they can't. We'll leave it at that.

The Leafs will obviously have to get surplus value from their cheaper contracts (Woll, Knies) and have their elite players perform up to par - but if they can get that, they absolutely have a chance.

Average cap hit of Colorado's Top 5 in 2022: $7.5M
Toronto this year: $9.6M

Definitely a comparable cap structure!

 

[AvroArrow]

Won't go all the way back since it's harder to find cap hit lists pre 2015, but here are the last 8 winners + Toronto next year. Ideally it seems like you want your top 4 to be 40-44% of the cap. Toronto will be at 49%.

			1		2		3		4		Total	% of Cap
2016	$71,400,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	45.17%
2017	$73,000,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	44.18%
2018	$75,000,000	Washington	Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	Evgeny Kuznetsov	$7,800,000	Nicklas Backstrom	$6,700,000	Braden Holtby	$6,100,000	$30,138,462	40.18%
2019	$79,500,000	St.Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	$7,500,000	Ryan O'Reilly	$7,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$6,500,000	Alex Steen	$5,750,000	$27,250,000	34.28%
2020	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	Ryan McDonagh	$6,750,000	$32,625,000	40.03%
2021	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Andrei Vasilveskyi	$9,500,000	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	$35,375,000	43.40%
2022	$81,500,000	Colorado	Miko Rantanen	$9,250,000	Cale Makar	$9,000,000	Gabriel Landeskog	$7,000,000	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	$31,550,000	38.71%
2023	$82,500,000	Vegas	Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	Mark Stone	$9,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$8,800,000	William Karlsson	$5,900,000	$34,200,000	41.45%
2024	$83,500,000	Toronto	Auston Matthews	$11,640,250	John Tavares	$11,000,000	Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	Morgan Reilly	$7,500,000	$41,043,250	49.15%

Tampa and Vegas were both well over the cap limit in the playoffs, doesn't really make sense to include them. Also a loophole that the Leafs can potentially use if the situation presents itself.

 

[AcerComputer]

Draisaitl won’t need to put Edmonton over a barrel. Oilers gladly will pay him what’s he’s worth and what it takes to keep him around. Same with McDavid. Blank cheques.

Can't see McDavid re-signing in EDM. Will likely come home once his contract expires.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Yes, I'm sure Matthews wants that - I'm not sure if Toronto would be the team to pay that.

There's two questions I would have to that:

Is Matthews at 31 going to be a better player than Matthews today? (I believe no because the majority of players, even superstars, peak in their 20's)

If not,

Why would a team pay him more at 31 than during his prime years.

It's like if Tavares was a UFA last offseason - do you think he still gets 11M? Tavares last season was the same age Matthews is going to be when his contract extension ends.

If the cap goes up over the next five years, then 13 million AAV isnt going to be looked at the same. A 15 million AAV contract may very well be less valuable.

That is the very purpose of signing star players to longterm deals pronto. You get them locked up with the understanding the cap situation will change over the course of the contract. While you pay a premium for their peak years, the hope is the cap will rise during the back end—making the back half of the contract fair value. If you sign AM to an 8 year deal, in 5 years, the going rate for star players may be 16 million a year. Meaning AM would be making way less.

 

[Divine]

Can't see McDavid re-signing in EDM. Will likely come home once his contract expires.

Especially after his comments lately:

Connor McDavid's most recent interview raises concerns about if he'll re-sign in Edmonton

Connor McDavid's latest interview is sure to raise a few eyebrows

www.bladeofsteel.com

I love playing in Edmonton, and I really feel at home there. Lauren loves being in Edmonton. There are a lot -a lot of things that check the boxes for us in Edmonton. We're super comfortable there. But with that all being said, it's three years down the road. We've got to kind of see where our lives are at and kind of go from there.

I don't say that to raise eyebrows or cause panic. It's just the way that it is. But love playing in Edmonton, I'm 100 per cent committed to winning in Edmonton with this group..

If Matthews said this, there would be threads on the mainboards lol

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Yeah, worse in play. A slower player, contributes less to the game. Usually elite players lose some of their speed and their game changes to adjust.

Most star players (Crosby, Malkin, Gretzky, Orr, etc.) have their best seasons in their 20's because as your body ages - you lose quickness.

Tavares for example puts up similar points today as he did when the Leafs signed up or his last few years with the Islanders - but he's a slower player and is less effective during the games when he's not scoring. Does he still get 11M last offseason? In my opinion, no. He probably gets signed to a contract, maybe up to 8M, but I doubt he gets 11M.

I mean, Matthews looked slow this year compared to last. Tavares 5x5 play dropped dramatically and the points were propped up by PP. I dont necessarily think his sudden decline is the norm. Bergeron, Stamkos, etc chugged along well past 31.

 

[Divine]

I mean, Matthews looked slow this year compared to last. Tavares 5x5 play dropped dramatically and the points were propped up by PP. I dont necessarily think his sudden decline is the norm. Bergeron, Stamkos, etc chugged along well past 31.

No, all of those players have declined. People forget that Stamkos was a 60 goal scoring, multiple Rocket winner - just because the NHL is higher scoring today and his points look similar doesn't mean he's the same player as when he was leading the league in scoring.

Stamkos is on his last year of his deal - what do you think he gets on an extension?

 

[JoeSakic13]

Glad to see Leafs fans are still able to carry the delusion after all these years. Proud of you.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

No, all of those players are a shell of their former selves People forget that Stamkos was a 60 goal scoring, multiple Rocket winner - just because the NHL is higher scoring today and his points look similar doesn't mean he's the same player as when he was leading the league in scoring.

Nonsense. They weren't peak stats-wise but were effective players and team leaders. Certainly not "shells of themselves". Thats just stupid.

 

[leafs in five]

I look forward to Knies putting up 113 points this year and winning Conn Smythe.

same

 

[Divine]

Nonsense. They weren't peak stats-wise but were effective players and team leaders. Certainly not "shells of themselves". Thats just stupid.

Yeah, I've corrected it - they declined. You missed the edit. Stamkos went from a 60 goal scoring, multiple rocket winner to the player he is now. NHL scoring is up so his stats look similar but no one would argue Stamkos today is as lethal as he was when he was leading the NHL in goalscoring.

Also - Stamkos is on the last year of his deal. What do you anticipate he gets on his next contract? More or less?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Tampa and Vegas were both well over the cap limit in the playoffs, doesn't really make sense to include them. Also a loophole that the Leafs can potentially use if the situation presents itself.

If they shut down one of Mitch Marner or Auston Matthews for the entire season with an "injury" but bring them back for the playoffs, then yes, the Leafs could use that "loophole".

Because that's what Tampa did with Kucherov and Vegas did with Stone.

But I'm not sure the Leafs want to do that. Take Marner or Matthews off the team in the regular season and they might not make the playoffs.

 

[leafs in five]

Glad to see Leafs fans are still able to carry the delusion after all these years. Proud of you.

hate to re-sign the best player the team's ever drafted

 

[Divine]

If they shut down one of Mitch Marner or Auston Matthews for the entire season with an "injury" but bring them back for the playoffs, then yes, the Leafs could use that "loophole".

Because that's what Tampa did with Kucherov and Vegas did with Stone.

But I'm not sure the Leafs want to do that. Take Marner or Matthews off the team in the regular season and they might not make the playoffs.

They can do it to Tavares. Why do it to Marner who makes even less than Tavares.

Tavares is the contract anchoring Toronto, even though people like to argue it's Matthews or Marner.