Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[Nothingbutglass]

Yeah, I've corrected it - they declined. You missed the edit. Stamkos went from a 60 goal scoring, multiple rocket winner to the player he is now. NHL scoring is up so his stats look similar but no one would argue Stamkos today is as lethal as he was when he was leading the NHL in goalscoring.

Also - Stamkos is on the last year of his deal. What do you anticipate he gets on his next contract? More or less?

Stamkos will be 34 and will likely take a much lower cap hit to stay with TB if he still wants to play. Bergeron did the same. Matthews will be 31 and has no such inclination of franchise loyalty. He will likely want bag #3.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Especially after his comments lately:

Connor McDavid's most recent interview raises concerns about if he'll re-sign in Edmonton

Connor McDavid's latest interview is sure to raise a few eyebrows

www.bladeofsteel.com

If Matthews said this, there would be threads on the mainboards lol

"We've got to see where our lives are at" is code for we'll have kids and want to raise them where we both grew up, tbh

 

[DaveMatthew]

They can do it to Tavares. Why do it to Marner who makes even less than Tavares.

Tavares is the contract anchoring Toronto, even though people like to argue it's Matthews or Marner.

Sure, they could. Do you think they will? Is there any indication that Tavares won't be in the opening night lineup? Doesn't seem like it.

Toronto already has ~$10M on LTIR, so it's not like they're much different from Tampa or Vegas. Take away LTIR and their payroll is $7M more than any other team.

 

[notbias]

LOL. See below.

I'm sure that Matthews is getting all that money because he's a defensive stalwart.

Draisaitl has been on for 43 GF and 42 GA - 50.6%
McDavid has been on for 49 GF and 39 GA - 55.7%
Matthews has been on 21 GF and 16 GA - 56.8%

His numbers are off.

Matthews is getting that money for the same reason Tkachuk got his. No one expected Tkachuk to be a .5 PPG player in the playoffs his whole career.

The playoffs are far too short with far too many variables to compare production amongst players accurately.

All of Matthews' underlying numbers are great and he is generating a ton, I doubt his numbers stay that low.

2023 22nd expected goals, T-116th in GP
2022 26th expected goals, T-147th in GP
2021 28th expected goals, T-141st in GP

These are his individual chances, and it is being compared to everyone in the playoffs.

Results matter, and he needs to do better, but he didn't forget how to shoot or score.

I think it is much more likely that he will have some breakout seasons instead of continuing around a PPG, but at least while he is doing so, he is being defensively responsible.

Not that it matters too much, I was just curious because I know he has a lot of posts/crossbars, so I checked.
He is tied with McDavid and Rantanen (7) for most posts/crossbars, he is inches away from a different narrative.

This is the most effort I will likely put into a post in this thread considering I think most is just trolling.

I just think Matthews has driven play, and still dominated, despite not scoring as much as he should, and hopefully (and likely in my opinion), the scoring will pick up at some point.

 

[Divine]

Stamkos will be 34 and will likely take a much lower cap hit to stay with TB if he still wants to play. Bergeron did the same. Matthews will be 31 and has no such inclination of franchise loyalty. He will likely want bag #3.

So you're speculating. Too many variables speculating 5 years into the future - if Matthews plays the next 5 years like last season and his wrist never fully heals - the Leafs won the deal.

If Matthews wins 5 straight Harts, Art Rosses, Rockets, the Leafs pay him whatever he wants.

I guess time will tell.

Sure, they could. Do you think they will? Is there any indication that Tavares won't be in the opening night lineup? Doesn't seem like it.

They don't have to do it opening day, Vegas didn't. He's older, he may run into an injury and then all of a sudden they give him a little more time off to 'recover' and make sure he's okay. I think it's all relative though - if Tavares' recovery is close to playoff time, I think they'll extend it. If it's like mid-season, I don't think they'll hold him out of the lineup.

They can win a Cup simply by all their top players performing in the playoffs - they don't need an extra 11M in cap space to win.

 

[DaveMatthew]

So you're speculating. Too many variables speculating 5 years into the future - if Matthews plays the next 5 years like last season and his wrist never fully heals - the Leafs won the deal.

If Matthews wins 5 straight Harts, Art Rosses, Rockets, the Leafs pay him whatever he wants.

I guess time will tell.



They don't have to do it opening day, Vegas didn't. He's older, he may run into an injury and then all of a sudden they give him a little more time off to 'recover' and make sure he's okay. I think it's all relative though - if Tavares' recovery is close to playoff time, I think they'll extend it. If it's like mid-season, I don't think they'll hold him out of the lineup.

They can win a Cup simply by all their top players performing in the playoffs - they don't need an extra 11M in cap space to win.

Which is kind of the whole point here. None of the players they're paying so much money have ever performed all that well in the playoffs. Auston Matthews has not been a superstar in the playoffs. He's been a pedestrian "good".

Maybe it'll turn around 8 years into their window. That's the big question, and that's what they're banking on.

Also, they're already using and extra 10M in cap space. Do they need 20M?

 

[Nothingbutglass]

So you're speculating. Too many variables speculating 5 years into the future - if Matthews plays the next 5 years like last season and his wrist never fully heals - the Leafs won the deal.

If Matthews wins 5 straight Harts, Art Rosses, Rockets, the Leafs pay him whatever he wants.

I guess time will tell.

Of course its speculation, its the future. If his wrist isnt healed why did you give him 13x4 and why would they win the deal? Most teams would prefer the Harts, Rockets and maybe a Conn Smythe that would indicate playoff success and deal with next contract when it comes.

 

[Surf Nutz]

This contract is gonna end up BALDLY.

 

[Divine]

Sure, they could. Do you think they will? Is there any indication that Tavares won't be in the opening night lineup? Doesn't seem like it.

Toronto already has ~$10M on LTIR, so it's not like they're much different from Tampa or Vegas. Take away LTIR and their payroll is $7M more than any other team.

The difference is - the players on Toronto's LTIR will most likely never return to the lineup. Muzzin has a career ending injury, Murray is always injured and has concussion history. Both of those players may never play hockey again.

Maybe Murray takes a backup role somewhere next season for league min. but he goes through another injury ridden season and no one will sign him even as a backup because he's not dependable - which is probably the most important thing for a goaltender

 

[hamzarocks]

Huh?
I have said this for a long time. Well prior to the signing.

He has been injured for 3 years. They will never let him go for nothing. That would be a disaster.

I have said for years that he may want out after breaking the goal record. If so. Sign him then trade him

Leafs fans are living through Tavares 7 years (which isn’t terrible) and wishing it was shorter.

This isn’t new

If he isn’t staying. Trade him at 29.

But I don't get why a team would want Matthews at 29?

Leafs dont want hin once hes 30 so why would another team pay big assets to get him rather than wait and see if hes worth signing as a UFA

If we were going to trade him his value this summer was higher than it will be at 29-30 barring him proving he is a franchise guy who ages well.

I don't see how we dont either give him 8 years after this deal if the team has any succsess or he walks as a ufa after another failed 5 year run

 

[Divine]

Of course its speculation, its the future. If his wrist isnt healed why did you give him 13x4 and why would they win the deal? Most teams would prefer the Harts, Rockets and maybe a Conn Smythe that would indicate playoff success and deal with next contract when it comes.

Because the Leafs with Matthews are a better team than the Leafs without Matthews - that's why they do it

His wrist isn't healed yet, but maybe it fully heals - maybe it doesn't. He's already underwent surgery and that didn't help. Last offseason it was supposed to be healed and then last season he had trouble holding his stick - I don't think anyone really knows what's wrong with it anymore.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This contract is gonna end up BALDLY.

They can always Stache him on LTR if it’s too Bald.

 

[Accelleratii]

I can appreciate a person wanting to get paid, but if Matthews ever says he'd do ANYTHING to help the Leafs win a Cup, this speaks to the contrary.

 

[HockeyVirus]

There were three potential scenarios:
1. Signs an 8 year deal at a higher cap.
2. Signs this deal.
3. Says he wants to test free agency.
I understand why fans are relieved he didn’t choose option 3. But I can’t understand why they wouldn’t prefer option 1 over option 2.
Unless they don’t really believe in the player longer term which is kind of a strange position imo.

You don't understand why the rumors 15M x 8 isn't preferred over 13.25x4 given the cap isn't rising by any meaningful amount the next few years to make that palatable, while the Leafs have their biggest cap crunch next season?

 

[Divine]

"We've got to see where our lives are at" is code for we'll have kids and want to raise them where we both grew up, tbh

That's how I read it too - there's no reason to say that, especially 3 years in advance unless you're planning on planting the seeds

 

[AvroArrow]

If they shut down one of Mitch Marner or Auston Matthews for the entire season with an "injury" but bring them back for the playoffs, then yes, the Leafs could use that "loophole".

Because that's what Tampa did with Kucherov and Vegas did with Stone.

But I'm not sure the Leafs want to do that. Take Marner or Matthews off the team in the regular season and they might not make the playoffs.

Take one of them off and add another 10M in player(s) and yes they will make playoffs lol.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Won't go all the way back since it's harder to find cap hit lists pre 2015, but here are the last 8 winners + Toronto next year. Ideally it seems like you want your top 4 to be 40-44% of the cap. Toronto will be at 49%.

			1		2		3		4		Total	% of Cap
2016	$71,400,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	45.17%
2017	$73,000,000	Pittsburgh	Evgeni Malkin	$9,500,000	Sidney Crosby	$8,700,000	Kris Letang	$7,250,000	Phil Kessel	$6,800,000	$32,250,000	44.18%
2018	$75,000,000	Washington	Alex Ovechkin	$9,538,462	Evgeny Kuznetsov	$7,800,000	Nicklas Backstrom	$6,700,000	Braden Holtby	$6,100,000	$30,138,462	40.18%
2019	$79,500,000	St.Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	$7,500,000	Ryan O'Reilly	$7,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$6,500,000	Alex Steen	$5,750,000	$27,250,000	34.28%
2020	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	Ryan McDonagh	$6,750,000	$32,625,000	40.03%
2021	$81,500,000	Tampa Bay	Andrei Vasilveskyi	$9,500,000	Nikita Kucherov	$9,500,000	Steven Stamkos	$8,500,000	Victor Hedman	$7,875,000	$35,375,000	43.40%
2022	$81,500,000	Colorado	Miko Rantanen	$9,250,000	Cale Makar	$9,000,000	Gabriel Landeskog	$7,000,000	Nathan MacKinnon	$6,300,000	$31,550,000	38.71%
2023	$82,500,000	Vegas	Jack Eichel	$10,000,000	Mark Stone	$9,500,000	Alex Pietrangelo	$8,800,000	William Karlsson	$5,900,000	$34,200,000	41.45%
2024	$83,500,000	Toronto	Auston Matthews	$11,640,250	John Tavares	$11,000,000	Mitch Marner	$10,903,000	Morgan Reilly	$7,500,000	$41,043,250	49.15%

What is interesting is I have been telling people they think this will be the Leafs going forward but it won't.

Matthews @ 13.25 + Rielly at 7 = 20.25
Let's say Marner gets 12.5
Nylander gets 9.5

In a few years this is 42.25 on a 95M+ cap which is right in that range. The Leafs were unique because they literally signed their 4 the season before a flat cap with the expectation the cap would go up. That didn't happen, Toronto was the unluckiest team in the league in that regard due to the amount of money they put up right before. So that has been a big source of problems.

If we had a 95M cap right now, these deals would have been a steal the past few years.

And of course, Tavares is off the books in 2 years and will likely command half his current money, assuming he doesn't take a discount like Spezza or Gio. So 11M is now able to be spent on Tavares ++.

To anyone paying attention the risk isn't to the core. It is the fact they have no one but the core signed beyond the next few years. How can they fill out a team in free agency that is any good and stay under the cap? They need prospects to hit in a big way.

 

[capfit9]

The culture of this team is broken & that’s on Shanny, Dubas & Keefe.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Just useless comments


Take one of them off and add another 10M in player(s) and yes they will make playoffs lol.

Which $10M player are you adding?

The Leafs are already doing the exact same thing that the Lightning and Vegas did.

The Golden Knights total cap hit last year, including LTIR, was $96.5M.
Three years ago, the Lightning had a total cap hit, including LTIR, of $98M.

Currently, the Leafs have a total cap hit, including LTIR, of $97M.

 

[TheNumber4]

Can't see McDavid re-signing in EDM. Will likely come home once his contract expires.

Nah. McDavid wants to win. Everyone knows the Leaf’s can’t win.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

"We've got to see where our lives are at" is code for we'll have kids and want to raise them where we both grew up, tbh

No it isn't and why is this relevant in this thread?

 

[notbias]

Which $10M player are you adding?

The Leafs are already doing the exact same thing that the Lightning and Vegas did.

Currently, the Leafs have $97M of total cap hit on their roster, including LTIR.

The Golden Knights total cap hit last year, including LTIR, was $96.5M.
Three years ago, the Lightning had a total cap hit, including LTIR, of $98M.

Which Leafs player is coming back for game 1 of the playoffs?

I'd love if Matthews sat for a year and they added 11 million to the roster

 

[DaveMatthew]

Which Leafs player is coming back for game 1 of the playoffs?

I'd love if Matthews sat for a year and they added 11 million to the roster

Tyler Bertuzzi is yout "loophole" reward. Without Matt Murray magically being too hurt to play despite being cleared in April, Nick Robertson would be your 2nd line LWer next year.

And you get him for the whole year not just the playoffs!

But if the Leafs were more cut throat, they should have told John Tavares to also be injured and take the year off (or the rest of his career). They'd be much better off.

 

[AvroArrow]

Which $10M player are you adding?

The Leafs are already doing the exact same thing that the Lightning and Vegas did.

The Golden Knights total cap hit last year, including LTIR, was $96.5M.
Three years ago, the Lightning had a total cap hit, including LTIR, of $98M.

Currently, the Leafs have a total cap hit, including LTIR, of $97M.

You're taking this discussion into a whole different direction that I don't want to derail into.

You said the Leafs likely won't make playoffs if one of Matthews/Marner is put on LTIR. But if they are put on LTIR leafs can acquire players by trading futures to fill up the $10M gap. Who is/are those players ? There's lots of players in the NHL they could target.

The difference between the Knights/Lightning and the Leafs LTIR is, the leafs players on LTIR are actually on LTIR with 0 intention of them being activated and played in the playoffs, it's not the same thing. We don't have a superstar that's going to be playoff ready, ready to go.

Just as useless as yours.

"Matthews is overpaid guys! He's overpaid! The leafs will never win with him being overpaid!"

Ok, How overpaid is he? What would the amount need to be for them to compete for a cup?

"I don't have to tell you anything! He's overpaid! He's overpaid!"

Literally you in this thread, thinking you're doing something.

 

[Neil Racki]

Leafs have three of the Top 9 highest paid players in the league. That's the horror lol.

Marner is a stud and Tavares is a ppg guy at his worst. They got 4 forwards who finished in the top 30 for points last year. This isnt an honest debate imo.

Choice:

Option A: Pay Matthews

or

Option B: Dont pay matthews? Let him walk? Trade away your generational face-of-franchise player at age 25?

Id be super happy my team gets a prime Matthews for the next 5 years.