Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[Nothingbutglass]

It's 13.25. And it's also better than the contract you wanted the Bruins to give him.

Rumor: - Kypreos says Matthews will be 13.5M (Haggling over term)

Shane - while you're able to exceed by 7.5%, if those bonuses are ultimately earned by the player and the team was at the salary cap limit, the "overage" is counted against the next years cap. The Bruins have 4.5M of "dead cap" this year because both Bergeron and Krejci obtained their bonuses...

forums.hfboards.com

Thanks. He would have been a good mercenary fit on the Bruins next year since they dont have any centers. Gives them a couple of years to find some. But I guess you think this is some sort of gottcha?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Print it out and post it on your wall.

Honestly, it might be worthy of that.

I look forward to Knies putting up 113 points this year and winning Conn Smythe.

 

[Divine]

Okay but how good was Toews 4 years into his contract? You cant compare 4 years to 7.5. If Toews contract had been 4 years instead of 8 he would have still gotten a bag when the contract was up, he hadnt fallen off yet.

I think we disagree here. I don't think Toews gets 10.5M 4 years into the deal. I also don't think Tavares gets 11M 4 years into his deal. If the Leafs had the option of giving Tavares 11M X 4 or 11 X 7, I think the majority of them would sign up for the 4 years.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

So what was your point in mansplaining?

Probably because you said cap when I said cap %.

Better question is why are you getting this offended over a conversation on an internet board about a sport lol.

 

[Divine]

Honestly, it might be worthy of that.

I look forward to Knies putting up 113 points this year and winning Conn Smythe.

He doesn't have to, just undervalued - which I would argue he could be.

It's not like Colorado has a Malkin level talent on ELC. Teams can win Cups differently. The Leafs could also win if Woll goes lights out - then you'll be saying to the next team to find a Vezina level talent on ELC. There's multiple ways to win, maybe Matthews returns to form. Maybe Woll and Knies both outplay their contract. There's more that one way to win a Cup - not every team needs a Malkin on ELC.

 

[AvroArrow]

Personally, I think they were already f***ed. Maybe he also realizes that, so figured, why not just get as much personal gain out of it as he can. I suppose thats logical.

Personally you keep saying he's over paid but won't provide a number that you think is fair value. What number would be appropriate for Matthews on a 4 year deal ?

 

[hockey20000]

sens fan here but yea aav sucks he once again took as much money as possible from the leafs lol. but the contract is not bad for the leafs either by 31 matthews could be slowing down i dunno if i would want a 33-34 year old matthews on 13million to be fair he always has injury problems and seems like the type of player who will slow down fatser then average post age 30.

 

[Gnome17]

I think we disagree here. I don't think Toews gets 10.5M 4 years into the deal.

I didnt think he'd get 10.5 when he did either..Hard for me to see them paying him less 4 years later. But we can only speculate.

I think a there is a risk though with signing a player up until the age of 30 though, he can still be at or close to his peak and demand 8 years for top dollar. That wont happen at 34.

 

[AvroArrow]

Honestly, it might be worthy of that.

I look forward to Knies putting up 113 points this year and winning Conn Smythe.

Imagine Datsyuk and Lidstrom weren't injured for the series, if the Leafs make the finals and the opposing teams #1C and generational D man both get injured (Mack/Makar) let's say, wouldn't be too much of a challenge at that point.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It's more interesting when you break down the 07 Ducks, 08 Wings and 09 Pens.

In 07, the Ducks top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Niedermayer), D (Pronger) and G (Giguere).
In 08 the Wings top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Lidtsrom), C (Datsyuk) and D (Rafalski).
In 09, the Pens top 3 cap-hit players were a C (Crosby), D (Gonchar) and G (Fleury).

Only 2 forwards out of 9 players.

The Leafs top 3 are all forwards. And combined, they'll have a higher cap % hit than any of the 3 players mentioned above did for at least the next two seasons.

For a team that values analytics so much, it's crazy how they've structured their team.

This is an interesting analysis. Have you (or has anyone) looked at the cap allocation for the Cup winners back to 2006 (ie, what percentage of the cap was allocated to the top three players, and what were their positions)?

 

[Divine]

I didnt think he'd get 10.5 when he did either..Hard for me to see them paying him less 4 years later. But we can only speculate.

I think a there is a risk though with signing a player up until the age of 30 though, he can still be at or close to his peak and demand 8 years for top dollar. That wont happen at 34.

Yeah, but I'm sure if you asked most Leafs fans today - they would have preferred Tavares 11M x 4 vs 11M x 8.

There's a risk for both the team and player. Matthews is coming off a down season - what if his Hart season was an anomaly and this is who he really is, what if the wrist injury he's been dealing with over the seasons never goes away - then you'd want 13.25M over 4 instead of 8.

I'm fine with the 4 years - if he's worth more in 4 years, pay the man. However, I would not go 7 or 8 years at 31.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

There were three potential scenarios:
1. Signs an 8 year deal at a higher cap.
2. Signs this deal.
3. Says he wants to test free agency.
I understand why fans are relieved he didn’t choose option 3. But I can’t understand why they wouldn’t prefer option 1 over option 2.
Unless they don’t really believe in the player longer term which is kind of a strange position imo.

 

[Divine]

There were three potential scenarios:
1. Signs an 8 year deal at a higher cap.
2. Signs this deal.
3. Says he wants to test free agency.
I understand why fans are relieved he didn’t choose option 3. But I can’t understand why they wouldn’t prefer option 1 over option 2.
Unless they don’t really believe in the player longer term which is kind of a strange position imo.

He had wrist issues all season, he's coming off a down season - it's not that hard to see why even the team might have preferred shorter term.

 

[LongWayDown37]

Probably because you said cap when I said cap %.

Better question is why are you getting this offended over a conversation on an internet board about a sport lol.

Who is offended? Was just correcting something that you said incorrectly.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He had wrist issues all season, he's coming off a down season - it's not that hard to see why even the team might have preferred shorter term.

The team wanted longer term. Which as I said would be the best option.

 

[Divine]

The team wanted longer term.

Longer than 4, yes, they wanted 6 - they weren't pushing for 8.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

There were three potential scenarios:
1. Signs an 8 year deal at a higher cap.
2. Signs this deal.
3. Says he wants to test free agency.
I understand why fans are relieved he didn’t choose option 3. But I can’t understand why they wouldn’t prefer option 1 over option 2.
Unless they don’t really believe in the player longer term which is kind of a strange position imo.

His reported ask was close to $16m. That would have been insane.

Longer than 4, yes, they wanted 6 - they weren't pushing for 8.

"It’s not the eight years the organization would have preferred, but still buys up the remaining years of Matthews’ prime and does so at an annual rate that’s less than what the Matthews camp was insisting on ($16 million cap hit potentially) for a full-term eight-year deal."

 

[LongWayDown37]

Personally you keep saying he's over paid but won't provide a number that you think is fair value. What number would be appropriate for Matthews on a 4 year deal ?

I don't need to provide a number. This guy just took the highest Cap % in league history (and not just slightly so that he can be highest paid - he took them for everything he could) and didn't even give them optimum term - so that he can do it again in a few years. Its a 100% personal win for AM, a worst case scenario contract for the Leafs.

 

[Divine]

"It’s not the eight years the organization would have preferred, but still buys up the remaining years of Matthews’ prime and does so at an annual rate that’s less than what the Matthews camp was insisting on ($16 million cap hit potentially) for a full-term eight-year deal."

This is Siegel speculation - not from the team. That's why he's throwing the term potentially in there - he's just writing his opinion.

I'm sure the team would have signed him to an 8 year deal at a lower cap hit. I'd argue you pay more for prime-only years.

Usually on an 8 year deal, you pay less at the start and more at the end. On a shorter term deal, you cannot offset the contract with the declining years.

 

[Rude Dog]

It’s almost like having three of the top 9 highest cap forwards plus Nylander doesn’t lead to playoff success.

Well there were only 7 teams left playing when they got knocked out, so technically they had more success than over half of the play-off teams last year . Vancouver is at 53 years and counting despite some great regular season teams. Guess they haven't figured it out either. Winning is hard.

 

[AvroArrow]

I don't need to provide a number. This guy just took the highest Cap % in league history (and not just slightly so that he can be highest paid - he took them for everything he could) and didn't even give them optimum term - so that he can do it again in a few years. Its a 100% personal win for AM, a worst case scenario contract for the Leafs.

When you keep calling someone overpaid, you do need to provide a number that wouldn't be an over payment.

Again you're dodging the question and it's obvious to everyone why.

When you make a claim like that, that it's too much money for that term, you do have to provide a number that is fair value if you want to be taken seriously.

Right now just sounds like you're screaming and whining with no real point.

EDIT: FYI Matthews took 15.8% of the cap, McDavid took 16.6% when he signed his deal 6 years ago.

 

[All Mod Cons]

3.2 million comments wasted about how he is bolting to Phoenix and LA. Think of the good we could have accomplished.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

This is Siegel speculation - not from the team. That's why he's throwing the term potentially in there - he's just writing his opinion.

I'm sure the team would have signed him to an 8 year deal at a lower cap hit. I'd argue you pay more for prime-only years.

Usually on an 8 year deal, you pay less at the start and more at the end. On a shorter term deal, you cannot offset the contract with the declining years.

Maybe but I dont think so. I think he wants a 3rd kick at the can with full NMC and salary paid in bonus money. Why not?

 

[Divine]

Maybe but I dont think so. I think he wants a 3rd kick at the can with full NMC and salary paid in bonus money. Why not?

Yes, I'm sure Matthews wants that - I'm not sure if Toronto would be the team to pay that.

There's two questions I would have to that:

Is Matthews at 31 going to be a better player than Matthews today? (I believe no because the majority of players, even superstars, peak in their 20's)

If not,

Why would a team pay him more at 31 than during his prime years.

It's like if Tavares was a UFA last offseason - do you think he still gets 11M? Tavares last season was the same age Matthews is going to be when his contract extension ends.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

He doesn't have to, just undervalued - which I would argue he could be.

It's not like Colorado has a Malkin level talent on ELC. Teams can win Cups differently. The Leafs could also win if Woll goes lights out - then you'll be saying to the next team to find a Vezina level talent on ELC. There's multiple ways to win, maybe Matthews returns to form. Maybe Woll and Knies both outplay their contract. There's more that one way to win a Cup - not every team needs a Malkin on ELC.

Colorado is quite the example considering they won the Cup in 2022 with MacKinnon making $6.3M...

You really just keep shooting yourself in the foot with these comparisons.

Who is offended? Was just correcting something that you said incorrectly.

Well after I conceded that it was incorrect, yeah!