It will turn out to be a huge disadvantage for players to do that now. Until the cap normalizes, of course.
But if you take 15% of this cap and in 4 years that number would increase by $3-$4m per year …. I mean agents aren’t stupid
15% might be around $12-$13m today, it could be over $15m Tomorrow
If the players SOLE goal is to earn as much as humanly possible, then yes signing 7/8 year deals are bad for them. Personally... at what point is enough money enough money? I'm all for the smaller fish to earn as much as humanly possible. Those guys who will only earn 10-30m over their careers? Yeah they should grab all they possibly can. But Matthews will be 27 when this deal kicks in (to start that season). He will have earned ~59/60m in career earnings. Given his age and future contracts... he could easily sign a "team friendly" deal at 10/12m per for 8 years and still get paid without it impacting his financial future in any way.
At some point the money doesn't mean all that much. When an extra 10m has little bearing on your financial well being/future... wouldn't it make more sense to leave more on the table so that you have a real shot at winning? Sure the players all say they wanna win... but then you see contracts like this and you're like... you dont' really wanna win now do you?
I think you just answered your own question. The NHL changes.
It went from shorter term deals, to longer term deals, maybe Matthews is the start of the shorter term era again - maybe he isn't. Either way, who cares?
I think it depends on the player. Matthews and Marner are signing contracts that even if they never played a game of that 2nd contract that were signed in 2019 (say injuries), due to the nature of the guaranteed contracts, that they'd still be set for life. That doesn't work for every player. These are franchise guys earning big money.
Do I think we'll see more players going this route? Honestly, probably not. I still think overwhelmingly we'll see the 7/8 year deals for most top players. Why? Because it gives them the financial security, the avoidance of having to do a new deal as often, and with what they're earning, setting them up for life with a guaranteed contract. I mean we just watched Mackinnon, Larkin and Aho sign 8 year deals, and all were coming off of well paying 2nd contracts. Meier I don't think is as much of a comparable as those others, but he also just signed an 8 yr deal, as have many others in similar circumstances to TM. Since March 1st 2023 there's been 15 7/8 year contracts signed. 19 if you want to go to Jan 1st 2023.