Confirmed with Link: [TOR/COL] Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen for Tyson Barrie (50% retain), Alex Kerfoot trade (continued)

[Maple Leaf]

Only time will tell if this was a good trade
Might blow up in Dubys face
Until then we pop another cold one

 

[IPS]

He did , but there were spots in the lineup where there were not NHL caliber players and no effort wad made to address that, now most of those spots are filled,there are some questions on the bottom pair due to Dermott being hurt but the rest of the roster has been solidifed

Brother, look around the NHL - there is no such a thing as a complete roster top-to-bottom in the salary cap era. EVERYBODY has holes. Especially when injuries happen (Derrmott and Gardiner were hurt) you are 100% absolutely going to have "not NHL caliber players" filling their spots.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Always remember the juxtaposition of Dubas’ and Babcock’s end of season press conferences. Dubas was more than willing to take on blame. Babcock deflected like nobodies business.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Brother, look around the NHL - there is no such a thing as a complete roster top-to-bottom in the salary cap era. EVERYBODY has holes. Especially when injuries happen (Derrmott and Gardiner were hurt) you are 100% absolutely going to have "not NHL caliber players" filling their spots.

No I disagree I dont thinks that's true, I think Toronto is proving that even in the cap era you don't need to have AHL caliber guys filling holes, if you did Jason Spezza wouldn't be the 4th line center, guys like Nick Shore, Kenny Agastino and Pontus Aberg wouldn't be extras on this team, you can find cheap depth, for example we could use a bottom pair guy right? I think most agree on that.

So give out some PTO's to Stone, Lovejoy, Girardi, Phaneuf Mcquaid one of tgem can fill that spot there is somebody out there that can do it.

Beyond thr Leafs though Tampa proves you wrong i can't think of one hole on that roster, legitimately not ONE and I'm aware they traded JT Miller and lost Stralman they are so deep it doesn't matter

 

[zeke]

No I disagree I dont thinks that's true, I think Toronto is proving that even in the cap era you don't need to have AHL caliber guys filling holes, if you did Jason Spezza wouldn't be the 4th line center, guys like Nick Shore, Kenny Agastino and Pontus Aberg wouldn't be extras on this team, you can find cheap depth, for example we could use a bottom pair guy right? I think most agree on that.

So give out some PTO's to Stone, Lovejoy, Girardi, Phaneuf Mcquaid one of tgem can fill that spot there is somebody out there that can do it.

Beyond thr Leafs though Tampa proves you wrong i can't think of one hole on that roster, legitimately not ONE and I'm aware they traded JT Miller and lost Stralman they are so deep it doesn't matter

name me tampa's 4th line and bottom pairing.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

name me tampa's 4th line and bottom pairing.

I would the Joseph Paquette and Martel

With Cernak and Rutta with Schenn as #7

 

[zeke]

the unspoken worry about Kadri:

5v5

16-17: 2.05p/60, 1.51p1/60
17-18: 1.80p/60, 1.42p1/60
18-19: 1.66p/60, 1.21p1/60

that's a worrying offensive decline from borderline 1st line production to just plain old 3rd line production.

and the impact numbers maybe even more worrying.

back when he was younger, and getting 2nd line competition, he killed the possession numbers:

Age 23-24: B qoc, +4.2cfrel, +5.1xgfrel

and then he moves up to top line competition, and his numbers took a hit but were still very positive which is just as impressive given the tougher usage:

Age 25-26: A qoc, +1.8cfrel, +1.5xgfrel

but then the next year against top competition he started to falter:

Age 27: A qoc, -1.1cfrel, -4.0xgfrel

That was a bit of a worry. But the we got Tavares, which gave me hope that Kadri would slide back down to softer usage and once again start dominating possession like he did against that competition when he was younger. But it just didn't happen:

Age 28: C qoc, +1.5cfrel, -1.9xgfrel

now those aren't terrible numbers, but they're very mediocre numbers, even though he was getting the easiest usage of his career - even easier than those early years when he dominated possession.

Now I love Naz, and really do hope he bounces back and its more of a mental than a physical issue, but the fact is last year he was nothing more than a mediocre 3rd line C with some extra offense playing on the top PP unit. From where I sit, last year was legitimately the worst year of his career.

But given his size and style of play, I can't help but be reminded of guys like Darcy Tucker who also had an early peak and an early decline. So there's a very real chance that Kadri doesn't bounce back.

And I find it strange in this trade discussion that nobody seems to mention that while Kerfoot and Barrie are both coming off multiple very good years in a row, Kadri is now coming off two consecutive years of significant decline.

 

[zeke]

I would the Joseph Paquette and Martel

With Cernak and Rutta with Schenn as #7

Joseph is on the third line looks like. So you have paquette (a bad 4th line C), and....a bunch of AHLers?

so they have cernak/coburn as 4/5s, and we have dermott/ceci as ours. (this is assuming that Sergachev can even handle a top-3 role - we're not counting on any of our kids to do that much).

so you're saying you think we need rutta's and schenns? how are these guys better than our borderline fodder?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Joseph is on the third line looks like. So you have paquette (a bad 4th line C), and....a bunch of AHLers?

so they have cernak/coburn as 4/5s, and we have dermott/ceci as ours. (this is assuming that Sergachev can even handle a top-3 role - we're not counting on any of our kids to do that much).

so you're saying you think we need rutta's and schenns? how are these guys better than our borderline fodder?

I'm not saying they need Schenn or Rutta but they need somebody to fill that spot because with Dermott hurt there is no 3rd pair it's not real it doesn't exist that's why I want to see them extend some PTO's, because there is somebody out there that can fill that spot you don't need AHL fodder filling that role, especially if it's guys like Marincin.

I'd rather have damn near anybody than Marincin or Holl and I don't want to see Sandin or Lilly rushed.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

How some people can defend babcock still blows my mind. I should have started a religion

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Joseph is on the third line looks like. So you have paquette (a bad 4th line C), and....a bunch of AHLers?

so they have cernak/coburn as 4/5s, and we have dermott/ceci as ours. (this is assuming that Sergachev can even handle a top-3 role - we're not counting on any of our kids to do that much).

so you're saying you think we need rutta's and schenns? how are these guys better than our borderline fodder?

.

Show me the numbers Zeke. How is Paquette a bad 4C.

 

[zeke]

.

Show me the numbers Zeke. How is Paquette a bad 4C.

well, he gets destroyed possession wise in very soft usage....-6.1cfrel and -4.2xgfrel last year, for example.

that's like Gauthier-bad.

 

[stickty111]

the unspoken worry about Kadri:

5v5

16-17: 2.05p/60, 1.51p1/60
17-18: 1.80p/60, 1.42p1/60
18-19: 1.66p/60, 1.21p1/60

that's a worrying offensive decline from borderline 1st line production to just plain old 3rd line production.

and the impact numbers maybe even more worrying.

back when he was younger, and getting 2nd line competition, he killed the possession numbers:

Age 23-24: B qoc, +4.2cfrel, +5.1xgfrel

and then he moves up to top line competition, and his numbers took a hit but were still very positive which is just as impressive given the tougher usage:

Age 25-26: A qoc, +1.8cfrel, +1.5xgfrel

but then the next year against top competition he started to falter:

Age 27: A qoc, -1.1cfrel, -4.0xgfrel

That was a bit of a worry. But the we got Tavares, which gave me hope that Kadri would slide back down to softer usage and once again start dominating possession like he did against that competition when he was younger. But it just didn't happen:

Age 28: C qoc, +1.5cfrel, -1.9xgfrel

now those aren't terrible numbers, but they're very mediocre numbers, even though he was getting the easiest usage of his career - even easier than those early years when he dominated possession.

Now I love Naz, and really do hope he bounces back and its more of a mental than a physical issue, but the fact is last year he was nothing more than a mediocre 3rd line C with some extra offense playing on the top PP unit. From where I sit, last year was legitimately the worst year of his career.

But given his size and style of play, I can't help but be reminded of guys like Darcy Tucker who also had an early peak and an early decline. So there's a very real chance that Kadri doesn't bounce back.

And I find it strange in this trade discussion that nobody seems to mention that while Kerfoot and Barrie are both coming off multiple very good years in a row, Kadri is now coming off two consecutive years of significant decline.

Great stuff as always Zeke. I know some don't like Zeke, but he is one of the better ones on this board. We disagree on the Bluejays topic but still respect him.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Great stuff as always Zeke. I know some don't like Zeke, but he is one of the better ones on this board. We disagree on the Bluejays topic but still respect him.

Agreed. I disagree with Zeke at times but I can say that about every poster here so no big deal and he posts a lot of stats that I often find interesting so I appreciate that. And that post on Kadri was spot on.

On another note, where are all those people that accused me of being a Kadri fanboy who would always defend him no matter what. The silence is deafening.

 

[stickty111]

Agreed. I disagree with Zeke at times but I can say that about every poster here so no big deal and he posts a lot of stats that I often find interesting so I appreciate that. And that post on Kadri was spot on.

On another note, where are all those people that accused me of being a Kadri fanboy who would always defend him no matter what. The silence is deafening.

Don't worry, as you also know, I also got called a homer. If I was such a fanboy, I would be attacking the trade but I loved the trade.
Maybe there are some who would rather watch Kadri fail then the team be good, but I want the team to be good. If that involves us trading a favorite of mine, I don't really care.

What do you think? I just got a strange feeling there is still another twist in the tale between Kadri and us. I don't mean him playing for us, but him doing something against us good or bad.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

the unspoken worry about Kadri:

5v5

16-17: 2.05p/60, 1.51p1/60
17-18: 1.80p/60, 1.42p1/60
18-19: 1.66p/60, 1.21p1/60

that's a worrying offensive decline from borderline 1st line production to just plain old 3rd line production.

and the impact numbers maybe even more worrying.

back when he was younger, and getting 2nd line competition, he killed the possession numbers:

Age 23-24: B qoc, +4.2cfrel, +5.1xgfrel

and then he moves up to top line competition, and his numbers took a hit but were still very positive which is just as impressive given the tougher usage:

Age 25-26: A qoc, +1.8cfrel, +1.5xgfrel

but then the next year against top competition he started to falter:

Age 27: A qoc, -1.1cfrel, -4.0xgfrel

That was a bit of a worry. But the we got Tavares, which gave me hope that Kadri would slide back down to softer usage and once again start dominating possession like he did against that competition when he was younger. But it just didn't happen:

Age 28: C qoc, +1.5cfrel, -1.9xgfrel

now those aren't terrible numbers, but they're very mediocre numbers, even though he was getting the easiest usage of his career - even easier than those early years when he dominated possession.

Now I love Naz, and really do hope he bounces back and its more of a mental than a physical issue, but the fact is last year he was nothing more than a mediocre 3rd line C with some extra offense playing on the top PP unit. From where I sit, last year was legitimately the worst year of his career.

But given his size and style of play, I can't help but be reminded of guys like Darcy Tucker who also had an early peak and an early decline. So there's a very real chance that Kadri doesn't bounce back.

And I find it strange in this trade discussion that nobody seems to mention that while Kerfoot and Barrie are both coming off multiple very good years in a row, Kadri is now coming off two consecutive years of significant decline.

I think another thing to point out is his minutes as well. It's a myth that Kadri has gotten less ice time because he was moved down to the third line. Hes been hovering around the 16 minute mark for 3 years straight. His minutes weren't slashed all of a sudden because Tavares showed up.

 

[zeke]

I think another thing to point out is his minutes as well. It's a myth that Kadri has gotten less ice time because he was moved down to the third line. Hes been hovering around the 16 minute mark for 3 years straight. His minutes weren't slashed all of a sudden because Tavares showed up.

Yup. he only took a about a minute hit in ice time at even strength, as the 4th line just played about a minute less instead.

Even Strength

18-19: Tavares 16:17, Matthews 15:57, Kadri 13:35, Gauthier 8:08
17-18: Matthews 15:57, Kadri 14:39, Bozak 13:26, Moore 9:01
16-17: Matthews 15:05, Kadri 14:19, Bozak 14:00, Boyle 10:10

and his PP time went up:

18-19: 2:35
17-18: 2:05
16-17: 2:15

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Don't know how Leafs fans can complain about the trade. Leafs got two NHLer for one. Barrie is really needed on defence, and if Marner a Leafs early in the season, Barrie will really be needed at RHD on the PP.

It is fallacy that Kadri was such a great 2C. In his two productive years scoring 30 goals, 13 goals a year were scored at LW on PP (with Matthews and Nylander). Needed goals yes, but he has never been a consistently solid offensive centre. Leafs will have to see if Kerfoot can be as "good" as Kadri. Maybe not, but the Leafs got Barrie for year.

 

[Its not your fault]

I still like this trade.

 

[zeke]

I still like this trade.

just remember yours and everyone else's first gut reaction to this trade - for every single person, it was an easy toronto win. easy. shocking to most of us, and instant anger from all the leafs haters.

and it took weeks of typical leafs-hating HF boards spin to finally turn it around and make it look bad, but unfortunately it did work.

 

[Its not your fault]

just remember yours and everyone else's first gut reaction to this trade - for every single person, it was an easy toronto win. easy. shocking to most of us, and instant anger from all the leafs haters.

and it took weeks of typical leafs-hating HF boards spin to finally turn it around and make it look bad, but unfortunately it did work.

I liked it at first aggressive true but only they really know what there working with. That said it's funny because alot of the leaf hatters are the same ones that say 3 year window. This would be a 3 year window move so I think this makes them madder. Dubas seems to find a solution to every hater angle. Like you said time will tell. Unlike the Kessel trade this one feels more in our favour. Kadri is far from young. Even if he reaches a new limit I see his career like Kelsers. Kerfoot could put in 3 35 point seasons and be alright but for the money he should be hitting 45 50.

 

[crump]

Addressed a decades old need of top tier RHD. That alone was a huge win. Getting Kerfoot and at term is sugar. I guess we don’t know if Rosen will turn into another Stralman, but it’s a risk I take right now. With Gardiner gone we needed to replace his offence. Kadri was an extravagance at 3rd line centre... converting him to fill needs in the lineup was logical.

 

[Stephen]

Agreed. I disagree with Zeke at times but I can say that about every poster here so no big deal and he posts a lot of stats that I often find interesting so I appreciate that. And that post on Kadri was spot on.

On another note, where are all those people that accused me of being a Kadri fanboy who would always defend him no matter what. The silence is deafening.

I've always maintained a bit of skepticism regarding Kadri, so the idea that Kadri is either declining, not fit for the third line, etc. isn't a problem, but it's shocking to see this turnaround from you!

 

[Stephen]

I think another thing to point out is his minutes as well. It's a myth that Kadri has gotten less ice time because he was moved down to the third line. Hes been hovering around the 16 minute mark for 3 years straight. His minutes weren't slashed all of a sudden because Tavares showed up.

The other bit of false advertising about Kadri is how hard he plays. I think he selectively plays hard but there are many, many nights where he's just going through the motions.

 

[ULF_55]

Thought this was pretty good ... re: Kerfoot

https://thehockeywriters.com/avalanche-kerfoot-valuable-player/

The biggest takeaway from all of this should be that Kerfoot is an effective player the entire length of the ice. He also happens to be proficient at the center ice position. Teams simply don’t win without depth down the middle. Colorado got away from lining Kerfoot up at center during the playoffs and that’s something they may want to go back on given how stable he is