Confirmed with Link: [TOR/CHI] G Petr Mrazek & 25th Overall Pick to CHI for 38th Overall Pick

[Stephen]

Waste a 1? They got back a pick 13 spots later, curious would it be “wasting a 1st” if they had 19 and traded back to 32?

What I don't understand is this:

The Leafs started entertaining moving the pick after Liam Ohgren was taken in the teens. Once he was gone they traded down to save $3.8 million so they could have flexibility shopping for a goalie.

So does this mean that their entire offseason goaltending budget hinged on the availability of a prospect falling to 25 or not?

And if you needed money for a goalie, why not trade some combination of Holl and Kerfoot for positive value to clear the space? If Ohgren was so special, why not just move up to draft him by packaging off some of the return from Holl/Kerfoot?

And finally, just buy out Mrazek.

 

[Nylanderthal]

We just traded a top 60 pick to move Nick Ritchie by your logic.

When dubas does it is no big deal when Holland does then it's a massive over pay got it

Super convenient that you excluded that we also got lyubushkin who was projected to be worth a 2-3rd at the deadline, if it’s a 2nd it’s the 2025 pick. It’s 2022.
Keep it up

 

[Mess]

I feel the same way. I look back on the trade deadline and how the first rounder was basically untouchable, and thought it was a great thing they were so adamant about keeping an eye for the future. Keep the pipeline flowing, get those blue chippers onto the roster. Trade up to find the next core piece.

But knowing what we know now, wouldn't moving the pick for a player who could have helped us win Game 7, go on to beat Florida and the Rangers have been a better use of the asset?

For the positive spin on this, what will the reaction be if we have to trade next year's 1st and 2nd rounders to move out from under the guys we sign July 13?

Leafs already traded their 2023 2nd round pick away along with their 2022 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder in 2024 to acquire 39 year old Giordano.

So we can't trade away Leafs 2nd next year already gone so the Leafs can dress then 40 year old Giordano as they build for their bright future,.

Sign UFA Mrazek to that butt ugly deal and it costs us our 1st round pick, Sign UFA Nick RItchie and it costs us our 3rd next year, Signing Free players and then dealing away draft picks to erase mistakes seems to be our GMs specialty.

Here is this years damage.. 2022 1st (dump Mrazek), 2nd (Giordano), 3rd (Dave Rittich), 4th (Nick Foligno), 5th (Ben Hutton) , and 6th (Riley Nash) round picks in this draft,

 

[Nylanderthal]

What I don't understand is this:

The Leafs started entertaining moving the pick after Liam Ohgren was taken in the teens. Once he was gone they traded down to save $3.8 million so they could have flexibility shopping for a goalie.

So does this mean that their entire offseason goaltending budget hinged on the availability of a prospect falling to 25 or not?

And if you needed money for a goalie, why not trade some combination of Holl and Kerfoot for positive value to clear the space? If Ohgren was so special, why not just move up to draft him by packaging off some of the return from Holl/Kerfoot?

And finally, just buy out Mrazek.

Maybe they had another deal with different assets depending on who was available, maybe it was Holl & mrazek no pick back. I’m sure these guys all have different variations of deals ready to go that are dependant on what happens at the draft.

 

[rocketman588]

Super convenient that you excluded that we also got lyubushkin who was projected to be worth a 2-3rd at the deadline, if it’s a 2nd it’s the 2025 pick. It’s 2022.
Keep it up

What did lubushykin do for us exactly?

Oh absolutely nothing cool thanks for playing

The oilers gave up a 2025 second glad to see you don't think it's that big of a deal

 

[keonsbitterness]

What do you think it would take to move from 38th into the 1st rd at 25 ?

So no cap dump involved there.

I don't know. Go ask Chicago.

 

[Stephen]

We spend the most money on scouting in the entire NHL. Cap dumping 2 UFAs within a year and wasting picks for foligno and Riley Nash make me wonder why we're doing that.

We should have the least wasted assets in the league with the amount we invest into getting it right

I was actually really surprised to hear that Colorado has a very small management and coaching staff in a podcast this week. Maybe there isn't the biggest correlation between body count and the ability to debate/digest information in the war room.

 

[Nylanderthal]

What did lubushykin do for us exactly?

Oh absolutely nothing cool thanks for playing

The oilers gave up a 2025 second glad to see you don't think it's that big of a deal

More than Ritchie did, especially considering they had injuries to sandin & muzzin down the stretch.

 

[Lemontree]

Leafs trade Petr Mrázek to Chicago, dropping out of first round of NHL draft in process

Leafs trade down from 25th overall pick to 38th pick in cap dump, but now have more than $10 million in cap space for free agency next week.

www.thestar.com

Leaf trends

The Leafs have drafted only once in the first round in the past four years, taking Rodion Amirov 15th overall in 2020, with a pick they received from the Pittsburgh Penguins. They traded their own 2020 pick to unload Patrick Marleau. And they traded their 2021 pick in the Nick Foligno deal.

With Dubas as a GM with a penchant for trading his draft capital, the Leafs have generally gotten good grades with the few draft choices they’ve had. Matthew Knies was a second-rounder last year who projects to be a top-six forward. Ty Voit – a fifth-rounder last year — had a big year in Sarnia. Both he and Knies have been invited to camp to try for roster spots with Team USA for the COVID-delayed World Junior Championships to be held in August. The Leafs also took Russian goalie Vyacheslav Peksa in the seventh round.

The Leafs now have three picks on Friday (one in the second round, one in the third, one in the seventh).

“Last year we had a second, a fifth in the sixth. This year we have two picks in the top 80. So last year was a difficult one,” said Dubas. “We still got Knies. We picked him late in the second and he’s had a very good year. Ty Voit is going to go to the U.S. camp and Peksa was on the Russian Under-20 team at the end of the year."

“We don’t want to make a habit of picking only three times, but it’s largely a reflection of where we’re at as a team and try to continue to push forward. If there is a way for us to recoup some of that draft capital without depleting our team, then we will.”

Under Dubas, the Leafs have tended to take the player with the most talent, which includes speed and high hockey IQ. They worry less about size and braun, but will take it if it’s there. They are more about taking the best player available rather than drafting to address organizational positional need.

Dubas has been GM of the Leafs since the 2018 draft. Since that time a number of players he drafted have already made the NHL: Rasmus Sandin (88 games), Nick Robertson (16 games), Nick Abruzzese (nine games) all with the Leafs. Sean Durzi has played 64 games in Los Angeles, part of a trade for Jake Muzzin.

Prospects like Pontus Holmberg (156th overall in 2018), Roni Hirvonen (59th overall in 2020), Topi Niemela (64th overall in 2020) will be among prospects at training camp with a decent chance to make the team.

Neither Nick’s are NHL players currently, that was deliberate in trying to make this management group sound more successful at the draft than the reality……..writer of the article might be a bit biased.

 

[hotpaws]

I agree with this. Dubas can't be making mistakes like this in the first place.


At least he made up for it with a low price

Who the hell is Earl and this is the most absurd piece of trash I’ve read on here .

I’d love him to give me an example , just one would do of a team moving down 13 spots out of the first rd and only getting a 6th/7th .

 

[Stephen]

Maybe they had another deal with different assets depending on who was available, maybe it was Holl & mrazek no pick back. I’m sure these guys all have different variations of deals ready to go that are dependant on what happens at the draft.

With us being 1 pick away from Yurov it feels like the play would have been securing that next potential core piece and flushing out Mrazek some other way.

Of all the permutations we got the best cap savings on the most toxic asset but the sacrifice of the most blue chip BPA in the draft definitely took a hit.

 

[rocketman588]

More than Ritchie did, especially considering they had injuries to sandin & muzzin down the stretch.

So he contributed more then a player that did nothing for us and we gave up the same pick that Ken Holland did in his cap dump for him

Sounds like Holland was very thrifty considering how much you loved the move for Ritchie

 

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

Super convenient that you excluded that we also got lyubushkin who was projected to be worth a 2-3rd at the deadline

By who? Justin Braun went for a 3rd and tbh I would have much rather had Justin Braun.

 

[hotpaws]

So no cap dump involved there.

I don't know. Go ask Chicago.

Obviously there’s a cap dump that’s why we moved down , do I need to mention it in every post ?

 

[Nylanderthal]

So he contributed more then a player that did nothing for us and we gave up the same pick that Ken Holland did in his cap dump for him

Sounds like Holland was very thrifty considering how much you loved the move for Ritchie

Holy shit, it’s f***ing pointless even replying to you, what a waste of time it is with you. Bet your families proud

 

[hotpaws]

Super convenient that you excluded that we also got lyubushkin who was projected to be worth a 2-3rd at the deadline, if it’s a 2nd it’s the 2025 pick. It’s 2022.
Keep it up

Who was projecting him to be worth a 2nd /3rd pick ?

The guy is a Hutton level player who we paid s 5th for the yr before .

 

[keonsbitterness]

Obviously there’s a cap dump that’s why we moved down , do I need to mention it in every post ?

So why are you asking me a question where it's picks for picks with no cap dump?

 

[rocketman588]

Who the hell us Earl and this is the most absurd piece of trash I’ve read on here .

I’d love him to give me an example , just one would do of a team moving down 13 spots out of the first rd and only getting a 6th/7th .

In the Dermott trade down we went from 29 to 35 and got an extra 3rd out of it

 

[NarcoPolo]

So you've got like half a dozen from the 13 spots each year. But you expect the Leafs to be the ones to hit on a star in that range, rather than some other team?

There is obviously more when looking at active players, but I just used this bunch as an example from a random 5 year span. I never said I expect a star at 25 either. I’m just saying, if any player turns out to be star in that range, and we miss on our pick at #38 (provided it’s not used to get rid of anymore mistakes), this ends up being a pretty terrible deal.

 

[Leaf Fans]

They paid what we paid for Ritchie and mrazek to go away and a third for only moving down 3 spots.

We already gave away the 2025 2nd

We haven't given away the 25 second rounder. Yotes only get it if they don't draft in our number 3 slot next year.

 

[hotpaws]

In the Dermott trade down we went from 29 to 35 and got an extra 3rd out of it

Yup usually you’ll pick up a 2nd or at least a 3rd maybe more depending on where your sliding down from and how far , do I have no idea what Earl based his model on .

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

If you identify someone as “your guy”, you are now pressing your luck that he isn’t selected in those picks in between. You trade back because you don’t see a tangible difference between those grouped players……..doesn’t mean the difference isn’t there.

Every single team that picked tonight thinks they picked the best player out of what was available when they went up to make their selection. Almost every single one of the teams will be wrong.

There is a fundamental mismatch from how some fans (and teams even) believe scouting works IMO.

Once you get to a certain point in the draft you do your best but need to know it's mostly a crapshoot and you're going to miss a hell of a lot more than you're going to hit. There is very infrequently one player that you have so much higher rated than the next best guy on your list.

Montreal is going to pick again tomorrow for example. If they pick a guy, that guy turns out to be a star - it's not like they had that player ranked 3rd in the draft. Greater chance is that he was bunched together (but still at the top) of their available list. Otherwise they would have taken whoever they take at 33 when they went up to take Mesar.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Obviously there’s a cap dump that’s why we moved down , do I need to mention it in every post ?

No. Of course not. Everyone knows there was a cap dump. We only got the second round pick from moving down from the 25th overall. We didn't get the 3rd or 4th round pick.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

Who the hell is Earl and this is the most absurd piece of trash I’ve read on here .

I’d love him to give me an example , just one would do of a team moving down 13 spots out of the first rd and only getting a 6th/7th .

That isnt what hes saying. Hes saying the difference in expected value of the two picks in terms of drafting an effective player.

As in the model hes using says the chance of a 25th overall pick being an effective NHLer vs fhe 38th is about the same chance as having an additional 6th round pick. It's a bit lower than some of the other pick value models I've seen though.

Hes not saying on the trade market value, hes just saying essentially the leafs arent giving up much in terms of quality of prospect they will get at 38 vs 25

 

[LeafsStorm]

There has been a lot of bad asset management in the last few years but what can you do? I'm just a casual fan who enjoys reading this forum. I can have my opinion just like everyone else. Just don't feel like sharing it too much. I'm not fully educated and aware when it comes to hockey, so I tend to just lurk and try to learn through various means.


Tl;Dr aside - Disappointed not to get a fun pick, relieved to see Mrazek go, hopeful that some good moves are ahead in terms of signings, trades and drafting.

Swing and a miss on Mrazek... seems like more of our swings become misses lately. Best of luck in Chicago Mrazek, can't say I'll miss you.

Hopefully whoever we pick turns out to be a player+