Confirmed Trade: [TOR/BOS] Brandon Carlo (15% retained) for Fraser Minten, cond. 2026 1st round pick (top 5 protected), 2025 4th round pick

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If its unprotected I'm having a draft party 2026 pizza and Pepsi.
Sounds fun.

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OK so if the Leafs sucked next year and the pick is top 5 they keep it, but if that happened what would Boston get? because it can't be the 2027 1st because that's top 10 protected it can't be the 2028 1st because if the 2027 is top 10 then it probably slides to 2028.

so what would it be?
 
I hope he does well. Good kid.
He does come off as a good guy. Hope he doesn’t get his bell rung again which has really thrown him off what he could’ve been.

Leaf fans will love him on nights you don’t know he’s out there. Nights you hear his name a lot can get pretty rough
 
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As a Leaf fan, I have such mixed feelings about this deal.

On the plus side, I think if you took all of the pieces on TSNs trade bait board, Brandon Carlo at $3.5m with another 2 full years remaining would probably be the best possible addition to the Maple Leafs lineup, both short term and long term. They already have an excellent shutdown pair with McCabe-Tanev; and he should be an excellent partner for Morgan Rielly. He's on the right side of 30 (which is becoming a growing problem for the Leafs D). It also gives them a ton of flexibility with 2 bonafide right shot shut down defencemen.

Yes, he's having a down year and has fallen down the lineup a little bit; but he's been good enough for long enough that I think there's sufficient reason to believe this year is an outlier. Zadorov perhaps not the world's best partner for him.

To get him for another 2 years at just $3.5m -- to me that's a real win. As a UFA, he's probably be looking in the $5m to $6m range.

On the downside, if you assume that they resign both Marner and Tavares, the Leafs are likely still going to have a stuggle filling out the depth of the lineup next year. Havign a guy like Minten on an ELC could go a long way to delivering excess value.

They've also done a pretty substantial number on their future draft capital, which will of course likely continue to be needed as they shop for additions.
 
Getting a big, fairly mobile RHD in his late 20s with quite a bit of experience and possessing pretty high defensive upside at $3.5m for this and the next two seasons is a pretty decent deal for the Leafs. Physicality and offensive ineptitude notwithstanding a high-end pk-strong 3RD is going to cost you at least that much if not more on the open market.

Obviously, the big caveats are his scary injury history and the recent 1.5/2y downturn in his defensive 'production'. If Carlo stays healthy and shows more than a shade of the guy he was pre-24, I don't think the price would be considered 'too steep'.
A lot of :crossfing in that post...
 

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