Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[zeke]

I don't think McGuire and Ramirez crack our top-3 (Alford/Urena/SRF) but they definitely challenge tellez and guerrero for the 4/5 spots I think.

 

[zeke]

Updated top 10 prospect list from MLB.com

1. SS Richard Urena
2. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
3. OF Anthony Alford
4. C Reese McGuire
5. OF Harold Ramirez
6. RHP Jon Harris
7. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
8. RHP T.J. Zeuch
9. 1B Rowdy Tellez
10. RHP Conner Greene

looks about right.

though i'd be tempted to bump tellez and vladdy up, and drop harris right out.

 

[DFF]

Liriano could continue to stink and he becomes a sunk cost that, in theory, could cost the organization the reliable innings provided by Dickey.

This assumption that Liriano slides in and replaces Dickey's innings could be flawed. He could continue to suck (isn't Pittsburgh's pitching coach the guru who fixed Happ?), which would result in the loss of Dickey's 200+ innings, which are reliable and relatively risk-free.

.

I wont miss Dickey....he is no loss

 

[Longshot]

Any explanation out there for the Feldman trade from Houston's stand point? He's having a nice year. Veteran guy. Can start. Can relieve. Why trade him when they're in contention?

 

[Swervin81]

Glad to hear you don't care about next year. If we suck next year for any reason whatsoever I expect to not see you in here complaining.

If we win it all, no one would complain next year if Sanchez got hurt.

Remember Ed Sprague? He was absolutely hot garbage throughout most of the 90's, yet no one remembers that because he was a key part in us winning it all.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Seems like a steep price to pay for getting Liriano's deal off the books.

Makes me curious about what they know about him.

On the surface this feels like a total steal, but often that's not how things work out. I like the deal, but it could go south. Liriano could continue to stink and he becomes a sunk cost that, in theory, could cost the organization the reliable innings provided by Dickey.

This assumption that Liriano slides in and replaces Dickey's innings could be flawed. He could continue to suck (isn't Pittsburgh's pitching coach the guru who fixed Happ?), which would result in the loss of Dickey's 200+ innings, which are reliable and relatively risk-free.

When you really drill down and get away from the knee-jerk reactions, this deal tells me a couple of things.

1. The Jays are comfortable with the other starting options they have (Feldman/Biagini) to step in in case Liriano continues to suck.

2. They're not opposed to finding a way to have Sanchez back in the rotation by the end of the season for the playoffs.

My favorite tweet/post about this today is "The Jays could DFA/release Liriano tomorrow and this deal is still a huge win for them"

Hutch didn't really seem to have a spot here. We had 4 guys for next years rotation and it seemed like another would be added regardless. 1 for 1 him for 1 of those prospects might be a fair deal. Getting the other just to pay the difference between Liriano and Hutch salaries is a huge win even if we got nothing from Liriano. The difference is like 18 or 19 for Liriano v. 2.5 for Hutch + whatever Hutch gets next year. That's probably a 13-15 for a free almost top 100 prospect if you get nothing out of Liriano

And then you have Liriano, if he turns it around, especially with Martin, that's all gravy. The only way it's a negative for us is if Liriano provides negative value for us, but if that happens I doubt he'd be doing it long enough to really bring it to a net negative since he wouldn't be in the playoff rotation or the rotation next year if he's terrible for the last 2 months this year.

I like how you always try to see why it makes sense for the other team. Most Pirates fans hate it from what I've read. It reeks of them giving up on Liriano and not wanting to pay his salary. The outfielder was blocked in their system I've heard, not likely to make the majors with the Pirates. But like I said the last 2 times I guess they really liked Hutch. I can see this working out for them. I've said countless times if we ever trade Hutch I can see him going full Arrieta on us. If that comes anywhere close to happening it's a huge steal for them. But I'm not sure that would have ever happened with us, didn't seem like he was going to get another chance here.

If they liked Hutch enough to think him for those 2 prospects was fair then they're getting rid of Liriano's salary for free so maybe that's their reasoning, but it feels like a paying prospects to get rid of money because you're cheap move which no fans like their team doing.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If we win it all, no one would complain next year if Sanchez got hurt.

Remember Ed Sprague? He was absolutely hot garbage throughout most of the 90's, yet no one remembers that because he was a key part in us winning it all.

If we could guarantee a win this year by doing it I bet a lot of fans here would go out and tear Sanchez's arm to shreds themselves. Unfortunately that's not how it works so you have to make decisions with the future in mind too.

Like I've said a bunch now I don't have the required info so I'm not going argue in favour of either side of the argument. I have no real choice but to live with the fact management and the info they're getting is better than what I know.

 

[Longshot]

If we win it all, no one would complain next year if Sanchez got hurt.

Remember Ed Sprague? He was absolutely hot garbage throughout most of the 90's, yet no one remembers that because he was a key part in us winning it all.

Remember Juan Guzman?

He would be the closest comparison I can think of to Sanchez (except Guzman was exclusively a starter and never pitched out of the pen).

He burst on the scene in 1991 and was dominant. They rode him hard in 92 and 93, winning the World Series both years. He was never really the same after that. Was bad in 94, a complete train wreck in 95, bounced back in 96 and then essentially became a back of the rotation guy before fading out.

 

[Epictetus]

Any explanation out there for the Feldman trade from Houston's stand point? He's having a nice year. Veteran guy. Can start. Can relieve. Why trade him when they're in contention?

He's a FA at the end of the year, can be internally replaced with a guy who could spot start or be in the bullpen in Joe Musgrove, and they probably found the prospect the Jays traded interesting enough.

 

[Canada4Gold]

here's that tweet I mentioned earlier btw

 

[Longshot]

My favorite tweet/post about this today is "The Jays could DFA/release Liriano tomorrow and this deal is still a huge win for them"

I'm not sure how that can be a true statement for a team with designs on winning the World Series.

Hutch was the organizations 6th starter. An experienced major league starter waiting in Triple A in case of injury (or whatever happens with Sanchez) is a pretty nice insurance policy.

Trading that for a starter that has been bad this year and two prospects, who aren't going to help you win this year (barring another trade involving them) has a degree of risk to it.

It's safe to say the Jays want/expect production out of Liriano over the next two years.

 

[zeke]

here's that tweet I mentioned earlier btw

hard to celebrate a good value deal for a couple good prospects when you're trying to win a world series.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm not sure how that can be a true statement for a team with designs on winning the World Series.

Hutch was the organizations 6th starter. An experienced major league starter waiting in Triple A in case of injury (or whatever happens with Sanchez) is a pretty nice insurance policy.

Trading that for a starter that has been bad this year and two prospects, who aren't going to help you win this year (barring another trade involving them) has a degree of risk to it.

It's safe to say the Jays want/expect production out of Liriano over the next two years.

Except they also added Feldman as a swing swingman you could actually potentially rely on unlike Chavez and Bolsinger who has been a solid starter in the past(last year he was good for the Dodgers for a bit). Bolsinger essentially becomes your Hutch just waiting in the minors if he's needed. They entered today with 1 insurance policy in Hutch before you get into the Biagini starting area, they leave today with 3, 2 even if Liriano didn't exist.

Obviously they're not going to just release Liriano because he's an option we could use and potentially be useful, that's just a strong statement to show how much this deal works for Toronto. So much so that it works even if we're paying Liriano to do nothing.

 

[theaub]

If we win it all, no one would complain next year if Sanchez got hurt.

Remember Ed Sprague? He was absolutely hot garbage throughout most of the 90's, yet no one remembers that because he was a key part in us winning it all.

woah i'm not going to sit here and let you slander the name of known steroid user/legend ed sprague

biggest hr in jays history!

 

[Longshot]

Except they also added Feldman as a swing swingman you could actually potentially rely on unlike Chavez and Bolsinger who has been a solid starter in the past(last year he was good for the Dodgers for a bit). Bolsinger essentially becomes your Hutch just waiting in the minors if he's needed. They entered today with 1 insurance policy in Hutch before you get into the Biagini starting area, they leave today with 3, 2 even if Liriano didn't exist.

Obviously they're not going to just release Liriano because he's an option we could use and potentially be useful, that's just a strong statement to show how much this deal works for Toronto. So much so that it works even if we're paying Liriano to do nothing.

Something I pointed out earlier. They must be comfortable with the Feldman/Biagini options or Sanchez coming back from the bullpen options for this year. As a move for this year, it's virtually risk-free. Sanchez is going to the pen and they have a veteran leftie to replace him and two potential options in the system if he doesn't pan out.

But surely you see the risk inherent in this move from a longer-term perspective.

Before today, Dickey comes off the books in the winter and they have Hutch or Biagini as replacement options. (Now, it's Lobsinger and Biagini)

That gives them Dickey's money to pursue upgrades elsewhere, or re-signing EE, Bautista or Saunders.

Now the Dickey money is tied up in another pitcher.

 

[Fantomas]

I asked this question before, but didn't get an answer. If Sanchez is moved to the bullpen, can he be returned to the rotation for the playoffs? Was this ever explained?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Something I pointed out earlier. They must be comfortable with the Feldman/Biagini options or Sanchez coming back from the bullpen options for this year. As a move for this year, it's virtually risk-free. Sanchez is going to the pen and they have a veteran leftie to replace him and two potential options in the system if he doesn't pan out.

But surely you see the risk inherent in this move from a longer-term perspective.

Before today, Dickey comes off the books in the winter and they have Hutch or Biagini as replacement options. (Now, it's Lobsinger and Biagini)

That gives them Dickey's money to pursue upgrades elsewhere, or re-signing EE, Bautista or Saunders.

Now the Dickey money is tied up in another pitcher.

Dickey money, with only a 1 year left on his contract. I like the lack of term rather than spending in FA.

 

[Longshot]

Dickey money, with only a 1 year left on his contract. I like the lack of term rather than spending in FA.

But, as I pointed out, it's money that is no longer available to pursue other options in the winter.

It's not a prime concern when you're trying to win and deal with the Sanchez transition, but adding Liriano's salary does put certain limitations on what they can do this winter.

Again, not a huge deal, but if Liriano continues to struggle and can't help this year and then is sitting there on the books during the winter. It will be interesting.

 

[Fantomas]

Speaking of Ed Sprague, he made the all-star game as a member of the Pirates in 1999. At halfway point, he had something like 16 home runs, a .300 average and a .400 obp. It all came tumbling down after that.

Maybe it was 'roids.

 

[horner]

Why arethey not worried about Stroman's pitch count.

Sanchez is bigger and stronger

Or is Sanchez better in the bullpen.

On a side note he is still going to be pitching 7 to 10 innings every 5 to 6 days.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Something I pointed out earlier. They must be comfortable with the Feldman/Biagini options or Sanchez coming back from the bullpen options for this year. As a move for this year, it's virtually risk-free. Sanchez is going to the pen and they have a veteran leftie to replace him and two potential options in the system if he doesn't pan out.

But surely you see the risk inherent in this move from a longer-term perspective.

Before today, Dickey comes off the books in the winter and they have Hutch or Biagini as replacement options. (Now, it's Lobsinger and Biagini)

That gives them Dickey's money to pursue upgrades elsewhere, or re-signing EE, Bautista or Saunders.

Now the Dickey money is tied up in another pitcher.

Sure but they would have invested that money in the offseason trying to fill the hole Dickey vacates anyway, and there probably would have been multiple years or term on whoever they got.

There's a risk it doesn't work out, but there's always risk, worse case scenario they essentially bought a prospect, best case scenario they get one for free when Liriano is worth his money.

This is actually a plus for people who always beg cheap Rogers to spend money. If they're willing to take spend money on a maybe to get some prospects, that's a great sign.

 

[Eyre]

I asked this question before, but didn't get an answer. If Sanchez is moved to the bullpen, can he be returned to the rotation for the playoffs? Was this ever explained?

My understanding is that it is allowed by the rules but is extremely inadvisable. Chance of injury increases as well as effectiveness drops because pitchers need to build off of each start and going from relieving to starting workload take a while to transition. Have to build up there habits etc

 

[Fantomas]

My understanding is that it is allowed by the rules but is extremely inadvisable. Chance of injury increases as well as effectiveness drops because pitchers need to build off of each start and going from relieving to starting workload take a while to transition. Have to build up there habits etc

I see. Assuming that Sanchez becomes a set-up man in the bullpen, his workload would still be pretty high - just in a different way.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Why arethey not worried about Stroman's pitch count.

Sanchez is bigger and stronger

Or is Sanchez better in the bullpen.

On a side note he is still going to be pitching 7 to 10 innings every 5 to 6 days.

Because Stroman's career high is 30 innings more than Sanchez's. If they use the same increase standards on both Sanchez's gets shut down way before Stroman. Stro is at a point he's been increased to a full workload now. Stro is basically at where Sanchez will be at next year.

 

[alcanalz]

hard to celebrate a good value deal for a couple good prospects when you're trying to win a world series.

A world series which Hutch would have zero effect on.

So if he's not going to help us win a world series, isn't a piece for us moving forward, and is a deal that, at the very least, is apparently really good value, there's nothing really to hate on is there.