Blue Jays Discussion: TOR Acquires Francisco Liriano, Scott Feldman, Mike Bolsinger

[rojac]

If you look at the standings, we are a half game behind the Orioles. If we miss the playoffs by one game, and we look back at the season and factor in that IF Sanchez were pitching would have most likely won that one game that cost us a run at the postseason, would you call that good management?

See, I just can't view the world that way. There's absolutely no way to know what would happen if a different decision was made.

Management is making decisions and living with the consequences. If things go well, some will consider it good management. If things go badly, some will consider it bad management.

So, if they leave Sanchez in the rotation and they miss the playoffs by one game, because Sanchez has a horrible start, is it bad management?

 

[PG Canuck]

See, I just can't view the world that way. There's absolutely no way to know what would happen if a different decision was made.

Management is making decisions and living with the consequences. If things go well, some will consider it good management. If things go badly, some will consider it bad management.

So, if they leave Sanchez in the rotation and they miss the playoffs by one game, because Sanchez has a horrible start, is it bad management?

No because he's our best bet to win games at this point. I'd rather lose having Sanchez pitched and knowing we threw out of best ace rather than wondering what if because we threw out someone else.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

By the time velocity deterioration, or loss of command, and pretty much any other tangible measurable sign manifests, it is too late.

Actually, that's a bit of misnomer I continue hearing from most people, both on here or on the radio etc.; any negative result of an innings jump would likely not occur this year, but rather the next.

But Cor doesn't care about next year.

 

[Longshot]

For the record I don't even know how I feel about this Sanchez to the pen thing. I'm not inform enough on how much they can reduce the risk by moving him to the pen or whatever. I'm not for it, I'm not against it, I've just accepted it as something that's going to happen.

So again I'm not arguing specifics here, that statement just annoyed me.

Thank you.

Why is everybody acting like suddenly the Jays management has decided, in the middle of a playoff race, to move Sanchez to the bullpen?

They haven't.

It was a decision made in spring training. He won a rotation spot then and at some point there was always going to be a move like this because they (management) believe it was the best available option.

This isn't a secret. It's not an "out of the blue" move.

All that has changed is Sanchez's performance. Very few would have expected him to perform like a Cy Young candidate.

Whether or not it's the right decision or the wrong decision can't be decided now. There is evidence both ways. Only time will tell and even then, who knows?

 

[Nasty Nazem]

That seems a little far down, I like almost all of those guys, but the 2 guys we got are considered borderline top 100 guys, we're they top 100 at the start of the year? WE have what, 2 or 3 top 100 guys?

I think I'd go SRF, Tellez, Urena, Alford, McGuire, Ramirez, Vlad, Maese, Greene, Zeuch, Harris, Rios for the guys you mentioned. I'd toss Bichette and Pentecost ahead of Rios too.

I don't think either of them will be in top 100 in the off-season rankings. Both have had him bit of a down year compared to last year so I'd expect both to lower in new rankings.

I also have no hope for Pentecost until he can start catching again.

 

[rojac]

The very fact that some of you seem to believe you can determine what would've have happened if a past decision was made differently means that I really should not be part of this kind of discussion. It's just not a world view I can get in sync with.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I'd be rather wary about putting the kid gloves on a guy for two months and then unleashing him in the playoffs.

If it was me, I'd let him run until he can't run anymore. I don't think there's any exact science about this stuff beyond 'throwing a baseball is bad for your arm.' If his UCL falls apart its going to happen whether he throws 10 innings the rest of the year or 100.

is that the thing where you get tommy johns on?

I guess what y'all are saying that him coming out of the pen to start in the playoffs isn't the best idea either?

 

[Le Cobra]

Common sense would indicate that the keepers of the franchise would want to protect what has likely become their most valuable asset.

I can understand that logic but I respectfully disagree

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't think either of them will be in top 100 in the off-season rankings. Both have had him bit of a down year compared to last year so I'd expect both to lower in new rankings.

I also have no hope for Pentecost until he can start catching again.

Pentecost obviously needs to catch again to have value, but he's hitting well enough right now that if he proves he can catch again he jumps top 5 IMO, so it's more of a 12/13 spot as a risk/reward placement. If he can catch again he jumps if he can't he falls

and yeah neither are top 100 guys anymore, but they're still borderline, say 130 maybe if the rankings went that far. We only have 2 or 3 top 100 guys so I doubt 130 or thereabouts would be a big enough drop to suddenly we have 8 or 10 guys that are better. I slot them in around the 5-7 range

 

[theaub]

is that the thing where you get tommy johns on?

I guess what y'all are saying that him coming out of the pen to start in the playoffs isn't the best idea either?

This is my personal view, but I still see a minimal benefit of him coming out of the bullpen compared to starting. Obviously you throw less innings (and pitches) coming out of the 'pen, but you're also throwing on a more haphazard schedule, throwing way more stressful innings, and throwing with a higher velocity (newer research has indicated fastballs are generally more harmful on the arm than any other pitch which is basically the direct opposite of what was previously thought).

And that's my overarching issue with this. If you're protecting the guy, shut him down. IMO this is the definition of a 'half-pregnant' move

 

[Kurtz]

Thank you.

Why is everybody acting like suddenly the Jays management has decided, in the middle of a playoff race, to move Sanchez to the bullpen?

They haven't.

It was a decision made in spring training. He won a rotation spot then and at some point there was always going to be a move like this because they (management) believe it was the best available option.

That's just false.


All year the Jays management has said that they've made no decision and will monitor Sanchez for sign of fatigue.

 

[TF97]

Updated top 10 prospect list from MLB.com

1. SS Richard Urena
2. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
3. OF Anthony Alford
4. C Reese McGuire
5. OF Harold Ramirez
6. RHP Jon Harris
7. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
8. RHP T.J. Zeuch
9. 1B Rowdy Tellez
10. RHP Conner Greene

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I can understand that logic but I respectfully disagree

Feel free to disagree with the front office. That's your right.

I've abstained one way or another believing a team of baseball people with sports scientists at their disposal will make their decision, and it will likely be far wiser than mine.

 

[Le Cobra]

Thank you.

Why is everybody acting like suddenly the Jays management has decided, in the middle of a playoff race, to move Sanchez to the bullpen?

They haven't.

It was a decision made in spring training. He won a rotation spot then and at some point there was always going to be a move like this because they (management) believe it was the best available option.

This isn't a secret. It's not an "out of the blue" move.

All that has changed is Sanchez's performance. Very few would have expected him to perform like a Cy Young candidate.

Whether or not it's the right decision or the wrong decision can't be decided now. There is evidence both ways. Only time will tell and even then, who knows?

Being a Toronto sports fan, I'm used to disappointment. This Sanchez decision however being set in stone sounds like the same song of potential disappointment all over again. I know it's not the best analogy, but why would you move your #1 starting goalie to a backup role? Especially when you are battling for a playoff spot? I feel like this is sort of what is happening to the jays

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Being a Toronto sports fan, I'm used to disappointment. This Sanchez decision however being set in stone sounds like the same song of potential disappointment all over again. I know it's not the best analogy, but why would you move your #1 starting goalie to a backup role? Especially when you are battling for a playoff spot? I feel like this is sort of what is happening to the jays

Agreed.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Updated top 10 prospect list from MLB.com

1. SS Richard Urena
2. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
3. OF Anthony Alford
4. C Reese McGuire
5. OF Harold Ramirez
6. RHP Jon Harris
7. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
8. RHP T.J. Zeuch
9. 1B Rowdy Tellez
10. RHP Conner Greene

yeah that's roundabout what I expected. I have Tellez in the group of 4 ahead of those 2 guys but the rankings always seem to be much lower on Rowdy for whatever reason so I expected them ahead of him.

 

[Kurtz]

Feel free to disagree with the front office. That's your right.

I've abstained one way or another believing a team of baseball people with sports scientists at their disposal will make their decision, and it will likely be far wiser than mine.

Wouldn't that sort of logic preclude you from passing judgement on any Jays transaction? After all, all Jays moves are made by a team of baseball people with an array of scouts at their disposal.

 

[Longshot]

Being a Toronto sports fan, I'm used to disappointment. This Sanchez decision however being set in stone sounds like the same song of potential disappointment all over again. I know it's not the best analogy, but why would you move your #1 starting goalie to a backup role? Especially when you are battling for a playoff spot? I feel like this is sort of what is happening to the jays

Because they decided a long time ago to limit the number of innings he was going to pitch.

When they made that determination he wasn't their number 1 starter. He won a rotation spot out of spring training and began the season as the 5th starter.

I'm not arguing it's right or wrong. I'm simply explaining how this decision was made and why it should be no surprise to anybody.

As for whether or not it's a good idea? Who knows? I have seen nothing definitive that says limiting a young pitcher's inning jump to a certain percentage from one year to the next is effective for long-term health.

I'm not an expert and I don't have the resources available to major league teams do to this kind of research.

All I know is this decision (in some form) was made some months ago. It should come as no surprise to anybody.

 

[Longshot]

Updated top 10 prospect list from MLB.com

1. SS Richard Urena
2. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
3. OF Anthony Alford
4. C Reese McGuire
5. OF Harold Ramirez
6. RHP Jon Harris
7. 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
8. RHP T.J. Zeuch
9. 1B Rowdy Tellez
10. RHP Conner Greene

So, let me get this straight. The Jays got their 4th and 5th best prospects, along with Liriano for Hutch? Is that what I'm seeing?

 

[Kurtz]

All I know is this decision (in some form) was made some months ago. It should come as no surprise to anybody.

It should come as a surprise to those who've listened to interviews from Shapiro and Atkins and believed what they'd actually said.

 

[theaub]

So, let me get this straight. The Jays got their 4th and 5th best prospects, along with Liriano for Hutch? Is that what I'm seeing?

#8 and #9 for them - they have a deeper system

 

[Canada4Gold]

So, let me get this straight. The Jays got their 4th and 5th best prospects, along with Liriano for Hutch? Is that what I'm seeing?

yes the prospects they got in the Hutch deal were really good, which is why everyone loves it for us.

edit: our 4th and 5th guys, I didn't read your statement right.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Wouldn't that sort of logic preclude you from passing judgement on any Jays transaction? After all, all Jays moves are made by a team of baseball people with an array of scouts at their disposal.

Nah. The Royals signed Ian Kennedy, my logic told me it was bad. The Jays signed JA Happ, and my logic told me it was good. These are things I can assess with the information at my disposal.

I have no idea about pitching injuries and their prevention. So I won't pass judgement on people making a decision that appears to be highly based on sports science.

 

[Longshot]

yes the prospects they got in the Hutch deal were really good, which is why everyone loves it for us.

edit: our 4th and 5th guys, I didn't read your statement right.

Seems like a steep price to pay for getting Liriano's deal off the books.

Makes me curious about what they know about him.

On the surface this feels like a total steal, but often that's not how things work out. I like the deal, but it could go south. Liriano could continue to stink and he becomes a sunk cost that, in theory, could cost the organization the reliable innings provided by Dickey.

This assumption that Liriano slides in and replaces Dickey's innings could be flawed. He could continue to suck (isn't Pittsburgh's pitching coach the guru who fixed Happ?), which would result in the loss of Dickey's 200+ innings, which are reliable and relatively risk-free.

When you really drill down and get away from the knee-jerk reactions, this deal tells me a couple of things.

1. The Jays are comfortable with the other starting options they have (Feldman/Biagini) to step in in case Liriano continues to suck.

2. They're not opposed to finding a way to have Sanchez back in the rotation by the end of the season for the playoffs.

 

[rojac]

Nah. The Royals signed Ian Kennedy, my logic told me it was bad. The Jays signed JA Happ, and my logic told me it was good. These are things I can assess with the information at my disposal.

I have no idea about pitching injuries and their prevention. So I won't pass judgement on people making a decision that appears to be highly based on sports science.

In other words, you're a reasonable human being who understands the limits of your knowledge. Seems to be a rarity among sports fans on the Internet.