Value of: Top 6 scoring winger to the Leafs

[gabeliscious]

Leafs have $40+ million spent on scoring. If they cannot produce for that percentage of the cap then Dubas should move one or two of them and retool. I have a hard time understanding why leafs need to suppliment matthews and co scoring. When you pay a playing 11 million the assumption is they will be the ones scoring.

 

[Jerkbait]

If the big 4 are off to a slow start you dont need more scoring. you just need patience

Incorrect No they need a winger for Matthews.

 

[Jojalu]

the defense sucks, and leads the league in giveaways. just because it hasnt cost us games lately, doesnt mean it isnt a major issue.
come playoffs, those giveaways are often buried.

This is simply not true.

The Leafs do lead in giveaways but why?

They are a possession team and have the puck more leading to giving it up more.

Look at the top 10 team in giveaways.

Leafs,, Flames, Panthers,, Hurricanes, Oilers..etc.

All the top teams in the league who generally have the puck the most

 

[FSL KINGS]

Could see AA available later in the year when AHL guys start getting called up. Not ideal top 6, but fast, can score & Kings could probably retain.

 

[kevsh]

Leafs have $40+ million spent on scoring. If they cannot produce for that percentage of the cap then Dubas should move one or two of them and retool. I have a hard time understanding why leafs need to suppliment matthews and co scoring. When you pay a playing 11 million the assumption is they will be the ones scoring.

This has been debated to death and a major reason why some of us (most of us?) Leafs fans are still skeptical despite the team's success this season. When the Lightning stars got shut down by the Jackets - along with the rest of the team - they had the cap space and assets (bringing in Coleman and Goodrow in particular for the sandpaper they brought and depth scoring).

The Leafs don't have the assets (scratch that: are quickly getting thin in assets) or cap space. So Dubas did this Summer what he did last year and took on a few reclamation projects hoping one or two would work out. So far this year guys like Kampf & Kase have been very good. Ritchie is just starting to find a way to have some impact. But come playoff time it's the stars that need to shine as you suggest, and on the nights where the opponents find a way to contain them that depth becomes critical.

 

[Qwijibo]

For another week

They’re currently using $3m worth of LTIR. What happens in a week that not only gets them back to the cap but also clears enough space for a top 6 scoring winger? We’re talking $8m or so in total

 

[cgc83]

Is this a joke or sarcasm?

We have given up the third fewest goals in the league

Goalies always help with that 3rd fewest goals stat line there .
A Justin Holl upgrade is an obvious thought .

 

[HockeyVirus]

They’re currently using $3m worth of LTIR. What happens in a week that not only gets them back to the cap but also clears enough space for a top 6 scoring winger? We’re talking $8m or so in total

8m? I said a top 6 winger not a first line winger.

 

[Qwijibo]

8m? I said a top 6 winger not a first line winger.

They’re $3m over the cap right now. A top 6 scoring winger is gonna cost $4-6 million so I split the difference and estimated $5m.

$3m +$5m=$8m. So where does that come from?

 

[HockeyVirus]

They’re $3m over the cap right now. A top 6 scoring winger is gonna cost $4-6 million so I split the difference and estimated $5m.

$3m +$5m=$8m. So where does that come from?

They are 3m over it because they are carrying like 4 extra players due to the goalie being on LTIR. When he comes back next week they'll be under the cap... Not that hard.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

No its not. Short sample size man. Your goalies save % is way above the norm which accounts for the 7th in goals against. Unless you think he is going to stay close to .950..... As for the Leafs having trouble scoring again, small sample size. I dont think any team with the Leafs big 4 is going to lose because of lack of scoring.
Your entire post is a swing and miss...

So how do you explain the Leafs being in 7th in goals against last year? The Leafs being bad defensively is a common misconception. They don't stink defensively anymore and haven't in years. The Leafs greatest need is an upgrade to the forward depth.

 

[seanlinden]

Acknowledge right to your opinion. Do not understand why standing pat w/Kerfoot instead.



thanks for constructive feedback.

to clarify:
- I spoke of a 4ish yr new deal for Strome; he likely holds up into early 3os. Beyond that, I agree, buyer beware on long term contracts.
But I think 4 years is acceptably good value for a known commodity.

- Remember I said we could do a Pageau like sign and trade equivalent, so there would be no risk.
- I hear you as to why would Strome go there. Maybe you're right. Maybe he prefers an extra mil + from somewhere else. OTOH, guy is making good $, arguably good enuf $ he goes where he wants and he has a good chance at a cup. I view the dif as a legit discount, but not "massive". Open market I see him in the 6 range, 6.5 tops. He's not turning down 8m+ from elsewhere for Leafs, it's more like a mil-ish.

- As to Hajek, somewhere thought I specified this was a favor. If I'm sending Strome at half and taking back 2 salaries full pop 2/2 yrs each and I have to move them, you can take Hajek expiring at < 1m for depth so NY can balance the roster.

The amount of years Ryan Strome signs for is somewhat irrelevant for the Leafs. He's 28 years old, he knows full well this will be his last big contract. He's not signing a 4 year deal, and more importantly, he's not signing for less than $5m. The Leafs simply do not have that kind of space.

The Leafs do not need or want to rid themselves of Engvall for a defenceman, and certainly do not want to do so if Kerfoot is going with a lesser salaried player going their way.

All that being said, again, I just do not see the Leafs being willing to trade their 1st round pick to go from Kerfoot for 2 years to Strome for 1, even if it saves them $1m on the cap this year. IF THE RANGERS are concerned about losing Strome to UFA, then perhaps a Kerfoot-Strome swap makes some sense, but the difference in value is nowhere near a 1st round pick.

 

[Qwijibo]

They are 3m over it because they are carrying like 4 extra players due to the goalie being on LTIR. When he comes back next week they'll be under the cap... Not that hard.

They don’t have 4 extra players. They’re at the league standard roster of 23. Which means they can’t even get Mrazek off the LTIR list without reducing the cap by $3m first. Sending Will down only clears $750k. So they still need to clear $2.3m to even get Mrazek back. Thst means running a reduced roster just to get cap compliant. There’s no way they can make a trade for a top 6 scorer without sending out at least as much cap as they bring in

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That's a bit of stretch. I don't think a GM has to trade away their entire future at one deadline to qualify for going "all in". The Leafs had already lost a handful of high round picks when they gave up another first and third at the deadline last year.

If not all in, Dubas certainly paid a big price, again considering their picks/prospect situation, on a deep run last summer.

He paid a fairly significant price but you also have to remember that the 2020 draft couldn't be properly scouted and to me that lessens the price because the draft was an even bigger crapshoot than it usually is.

When I think of all in, I think of the Rams in the NFL, the Jays from 2015- 2017, the Rangers in 1994

I don't think you can call it all in when you don't trade a single prospect

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The amount of years Ryan Strome signs for is somewhat irrelevant for the Leafs. He's 28 years old, he knows full well this will be his last big contract. He's not signing a 4 year deal, and more importantly, he's not signing for less than $5m. The Leafs simply do not have that kind of space.

The Leafs do not need or want to rid themselves of Engvall for a defenceman, and certainly do not want to do so if Kerfoot is going with a lesser salaried player going their way.

All that being said, again, I just do not see the Leafs being willing to trade their 1st round pick to go from Kerfoot for 2 years to Strome for 1, even if it saves them $1m on the cap this year. IF THE RANGERS are concerned about losing Strome to UFA, then perhaps a Kerfoot-Strome swap makes some sense, but the difference in value is nowhere near a 1st round pick.

I'm not So sure the Leafs don't want to rid themselves of Engval

 

[zizbuka]

Giroux for Nylander?

 

[The90]

Giroux for Nylander?

Hard no

 

[Legion34]

They don’t have 4 extra players. They’re at the league standard roster of 23. Which means they can’t even get Mrazek off the LTIR list without reducing the cap by $3m first. Sending Will down only clears $750k. So they still need to clear $2.3m to even get Mrazek back. Thst means running a reduced roster just to get cap compliant. There’s no way they can make a trade for a top 6 scorer without sending out at least as much cap as they bring in

the leafs never carry a full roster. They have the marlies in TO for that. That’s why they always have a bunch of tweeners on min deals. They can just play 1 game a man down. And then just call up as many as they want.

many teams don’t have 23 person rosters. Heck Vegas played half last year without a full team. It’s inefficient.

 

[seanlinden]

I'm not So sure the Leafs don't want to rid themselves of Engval

If that were the case, he would have been on waivers instead of Adam Brooks and/or Michael Amadio.

Reality is, Engvall's been a versatile, plug-in-anywhere forward for the team. He can play C, he can be a really good compliment on the LW with Kampf, he's never really going to hurt the team.

Is he the best use of ~$500k over a league minimum player? possibly not, but even if you replace him with a league min player, Toronto is still over the cap.

 

[seanlinden]

They are 3m over it because they are carrying like 4 extra players due to the goalie being on LTIR. When he comes back next week they'll be under the cap... Not that hard.

With a 22-man, fully healthy roster (Mrazek AND Mikheyev back), the Leafs are about $780k over the cap. The simplest, and waiver-free way to get cap compliant is to send Timothy Liljegren down, leaving themselves with a 21 man roster including 6 defencemen.

There is the Roster Emergency Exemption, which would allow the Leafs to bring up guys from the Marlies to deal with short term injuries. The problem is -- it's limited to guys that make $850k or less. Notably, Liljegren & Clifford would be ineligible for call-up under this provision. There could be a situation where you've got Brennan Menell, Alex Biega, Joseph Duszak, or Mac Hollowell playing for the Leafs, with Liljegren playing for the Marlies.

 

[banks]

I would absolutely love if Toronto could find a way to add Phil Kessel. That would be my favourite option. He's definitely available, and checks all the boxes for a player they need. Just a matter of the salary cap.

Rakell seems like a solid option. He'd be the easiest to fit under the cap, and the return shouldn't be tooo high.

Giving Josh Ho-Sang an NHL deal is a legit possibility. 13 points in 14 AHL games so far with the Marlies.

 

[bernmeister]

The amount of years Ryan Strome signs for is somewhat irrelevant for the Leafs. He's 28 years old, he knows full well this will be his last big contract. He's not signing a 4 year deal, and more importantly, he's not signing for less than $5m. The Leafs simply do not have that kind of space.

The Leafs do not need or want to rid themselves of Engvall for a defenceman, and certainly do not want to do so if Kerfoot is going with a lesser salaried player going their way.

All that being said, again, I just do not see the Leafs being willing to trade their 1st round pick to go from Kerfoot for 2 years to Strome for 1, even if it saves them $1m on the cap this year. IF THE RANGERS are concerned about losing Strome to UFA, then perhaps a Kerfoot-Strome swap makes some sense, but the difference in value is nowhere near a 1st round pick.

I disagree with the premise above that this is the strome's last big pay day.
He can do a short deal even less than 4 and then look for another one. The mindset that he is going to drive the market is somewhat misplaced. That is, he's not gonna dictate like Zib did I want at least ___ large $ for 7 or 8 years, and get it.
I think w/Leafs having shot at the cup, he wants 6 but takes 3 or 4 years. And I think he gets 5ish from leafs, 6.5 ish on the market unless SEA maybe, maybe overpays a bit more.

---------

As to the rest of it, NY will not do a Tavares, but we can sell Strome a lot of places.
At 4.5 he is still worth lion's share if not a 1st outright, to anyone.
Retained to max half, he is worth a 1st +.
again to anyone.

No interest in Kerfoot, we would be flipping him as I wasn't kidding about need to create cap space for next yr.

Kerfoot + Holl are there w/Hajek to facilitate Strome at half.

If ya don't want to quibble over Holl and Hajek, then we can do a la carte:
give me a 1st + for Strome
and
I'll give you a 4th for Kerfoot

 

[seanlinden]

I disagree with the premise above that this is the strome's last big pay day.
He can do a short deal even less than 4 and then look for another one. The mindset that he is going to drive the market is somewhat misplaced. That is, he's not gonna dictate like Zib did I want at least ___ large $ for 7 or 8 years, and get it.
I think w/Leafs having shot at the cup, he wants 6 but takes 3 or 4 years. And I think he gets 5ish from leafs, 6.5 ish on the market unless SEA maybe, maybe overpays a bit more.

---------

As to the rest of it, NY will not do a Tavares, but we can sell Strome a lot of places.
At 4.5 he is still worth lion's share if not a 1st outright, to anyone.
Retained to max half, he is worth a 1st +.
again to anyone.

No interest in Kerfoot, we would be flipping him as I wasn't kidding about need to create cap space for next yr.

Kerfoot + Holl are there w/Hajek to facilitate Strome at half.

If ya don't want to quibble over Holl and Hajek, then we can do a la carte:
give me a 1st + for Strome
and
I'll give you a 4th for Kerfoot

He would be an absolute moron for doing so. He's 28 years old, he's coming off seasons where he's produced 59 in 70, 49 in 56, and 14 in 16 so far this year. He's going to go get himself a 6-7 year deal at $6m+, and set his career for life. If he's going short term, the AAV only goes up considering the risk/challenge with pursuing UFA as a 31 year old.

As for Strome himself, maybe he's worth a 1st round pick -- if he is, go trade him for one. I can tell you with certainty that the Leafs aren't going to be trading a first round pick for him; certainly not Kerfoot + a 1st.

 

[kevsh]

He paid a fairly significant price but you also have to remember that the 2020 draft couldn't be properly scouted and to me that lessens the price because the draft was an even bigger crapshoot than it usually is.

When I think of all in, I think of the Rams in the NFL, the Jays from 2015- 2017, the Rangers in 1994

I don't think you can call it all in when you don't trade a single prospect

That's all fair, I didn't mean to suggest last season was all in, but again it's not a blanket term for all situations nor just a matter of "well if you don't give up X it's not all in".

A team already short on picks and prospects that trade away another first & third on rentals is far more of a gamble than a team that has plenty of both. For Toronto unless their scouts hit a few picks out of the park in the coming years, the current core is it.

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

I disagree with the premise above that this is the strome's last big pay day.
He can do a short deal even less than 4 and then look for another one. The mindset that he is going to drive the market is somewhat misplaced. That is, he's not gonna dictate like Zib did I want at least ___ large $ for 7 or 8 years, and get it.
I think w/Leafs having shot at the cup, he wants 6 but takes 3 or 4 years. And I think he gets 5ish from leafs, 6.5 ish on the market unless SEA maybe, maybe overpays a bit more.

---------

As to the rest of it, NY will not do a Tavares, but we can sell Strome a lot of places.
At 4.5 he is still worth lion's share if not a 1st outright, to anyone.
Retained to max half, he is worth a 1st +.
again to anyone.

No interest in Kerfoot, we would be flipping him as I wasn't kidding about need to create cap space for next yr.

Kerfoot + Holl are there w/Hajek to facilitate Strome at half.

If ya don't want to quibble over Holl and Hajek, then we can do a la carte:
give me a 1st + for Strome
and
I'll give you a 4th for Kerfoot

You're out to lunch if you think Strome is going to take a 4y x 4.5m contract. Can you give me an example of a comparable player that signed a similar contract? Because I can give you many examples of comparable players that signed contracts 6mil and over for 6+ years...