To sign or not to re-sign that is the question with Freddy Andersen.?
- Thread starter Mess
- Start date
leafs too top heavy .. the need to sign a 2-2.5 mil guy to play tandem with jack
or get a vet for under 1.5 and give jack 60-70% of the load.
its going to be a goalie by committee over the next 4 years. It'll be interesting to watch
or get a vet for under 1.5 and give jack 60-70% of the load.
its going to be a goalie by committee over the next 4 years. It'll be interesting to watch
123offtheglass
Registered User
Just numbers but this might make us feel a bit better about Fred:
Matt Murray .880 sv% 22gp
Carter Hart .888 sv% 15gp PHI
Robin Lehner .890 sv% 5gp VGK
Braden Holtby .893 sv% 11gp
Jonas Korpisalo .895 sv% 21gp
John Gibson .898 sv% 22gp
Mackenzie Blackwood .900 sv% 13gp
Matt Murray .880 sv% 22gp
Carter Hart .888 sv% 15gp PHI
Robin Lehner .890 sv% 5gp VGK
Braden Holtby .893 sv% 11gp
Jonas Korpisalo .895 sv% 21gp
John Gibson .898 sv% 22gp
Mackenzie Blackwood .900 sv% 13gp
Hockey Crazy
Registered User
- Dec 30, 2008
- 2,942
- 2,071
Hes an average starter and thats fine, but we don't have the luxury of paying an average starter another 5mil contract. We need to roll the dice, go with a tandem, and hope one takes the reigns.
Anderson is a Top 10 regular season goalie...come playoff time pressure or lack of focus exposes him, hard pass on re-signing him.
Duffman955
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2010
- 14,743
- 4,196
BrainyBomber
Registered User
- Apr 1, 2018
- 489
- 412
It was bad enough keeping Fred this summer but he absolutely must not be re-signed this year. Costs way too much for what he provides. He's our worst contract - thanks again Lou!
Get Ullmark and roll a tandem with Campbell. Their numbers are far superior to Fred's and both play/played for awful teams. Combined they would cost the same as Fred next year.
Get Ullmark and roll a tandem with Campbell. Their numbers are far superior to Fred's and both play/played for awful teams. Combined they would cost the same as Fred next year.
BrainyBomber
Registered User
- Apr 1, 2018
- 489
- 412
Top 10 goalie what are you smoking?
Fred's more like top 30 now. His .902 sv% is 32nd in the league for goalies that played more than a third of their teams games.
He's been poor behind one of the best defences in the league.
This is by far the best Leafs team since 93 and if it wasn't for our anchor of a starting goalie it would be our best chance to win the Cup in over 50 years. But we'll never win a Cup with choker Fred.
I don't think people fully realize how good this team is now. We are joint faves for the Cup with a dominant TB team Stanley Cup Winner Betting Odds | Ice Hockey despite a poor starting goalie! If we had a Hellebuyck who costs only a million more than Fred mind you - we could already start planning the parade
Divine
Registered User
- Dec 18, 2010
- 20,269
- 14,791
He's right by Price who is getting criticized heavily. Montreal's own GM came out and said Price is not playing well and knows it. Price is getting questioned by the media about his play every day. Yet, no one in the Toronto media wants to call Andersen out, heck half the posters here think he's playing great.
Noodles said 2 days ago, that the Leafs made a huge mistake not giving this guy a raise and 4 more years during the summer. 
very good regular season goalie, will win you 100 points with a good team behind him, does not have a next level playoff gear in his tool box ...has been out played by every opposing goalie in the playoffs so far as a leaf
I'd also be interested in Ullmark, I think he's a good goalie on a bad team. If Fred would sign for 4 x 4 I would be ok with that, he would be pretty easy to move if another goalie becomes available.
Weird quirk about Andersen's numbers this year:
Out of the 42 keepers to play 50+ PK minutes this year:
Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 42.41 (8th Fewest out of 42)
Expected Goals Against/60: 4.72 (4th fewest out of 42)
.791 save% (38th out of 42)
Out of the 37 keepers to play 500+ 5v5 minutes this year:
Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 27.45 (10th Fewest out of 37)
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.1 (16th fewest out of 37)
.925 save% (13th out of 37)
Above average 5v5 but a tire fire on the PK.
Out of the 42 keepers to play 50+ PK minutes this year:
Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 42.41 (8th Fewest out of 42)
Expected Goals Against/60: 4.72 (4th fewest out of 42)
.791 save% (38th out of 42)
Out of the 37 keepers to play 500+ 5v5 minutes this year:
Andersen:
Shots Against/60: 27.45 (10th Fewest out of 37)
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.1 (16th fewest out of 37)
.925 save% (13th out of 37)
Above average 5v5 but a tire fire on the PK.
Price is held to a higher standard due to his massive contract and his past ability to be a vezina winner. I do agree Freddy should be called out more.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
14+gms played (i.e. "starting") Goalies (with caphit) ranked by sv%
(30 total)
1. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): .936
2. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): .932
3. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): .929
4. Kahkonen (24, $0.7 x2): .922
5. Shesterkin (25, $0.9 x1): .921
6. Petersen (26, $0.9 x2): .920
7. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): .920
8. Lankinen (25, $0.8 x2): .919
9. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): .914
10. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): .914
11. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): .911
12. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): .910
13. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): .909
14. Reimer (32, $3.4 x1): .908
15. Khudobin (34, $3.3 x3): .907
16. Price (33, $10.5 x6): .906
17. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): .906
18. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): .906
19. Vanacek (24, $0.7 x2): .904
20. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): .903
21. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): .902
22. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): .901
23. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): .899
24. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): .897
25. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): .895
26. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): .894
27. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): .888
28. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): .883
29. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): .880
30. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): .879
And here they are ranked by dfsv% (difference between save perecentage and expected save percentage):
1. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): +1.98
2. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): +1.65
3. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): +0.81
4. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): +0.71
5. Shesterkin (25, $0.9 x1): +0.67
6. Petersen (26, $0.9 x2): +0.63
7. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): +0.45
8. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): +0.40
9. Lankinen (25, $0.8 x2): +0.22
10. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): +0.18
11. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): +0.03
12. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): -0.17
13. Reimer (32, $3.4 x1): -0.18
14. Kahkonen (24, $0.7 x2): -0.26
15. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): -0.32
16. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): -0.50
17. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): -0.63
18. Price (33, $10.5 x6): -0.73
19. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): -0.83
20. Khudobin (34, $3.3 x3): -0.85
21. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): -0.86
22. Vanacek (24, $0.7 x2): -0.98
23. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): -0.99
24. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): -1.44
25. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): -1.60
26. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): -1.80
27. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): -1.89
28. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): -2.14
29. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): -2.22
30. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): -2.71
(30 total)
1. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): .936
2. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): .932
3. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): .929
4. Kahkonen (24, $0.7 x2): .922
5. Shesterkin (25, $0.9 x1): .921
6. Petersen (26, $0.9 x2): .920
7. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): .920
8. Lankinen (25, $0.8 x2): .919
9. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): .914
10. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): .914
11. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): .911
12. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): .910
13. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): .909
14. Reimer (32, $3.4 x1): .908
15. Khudobin (34, $3.3 x3): .907
16. Price (33, $10.5 x6): .906
17. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): .906
18. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): .906
19. Vanacek (24, $0.7 x2): .904
20. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): .903
21. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): .902
22. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): .901
23. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): .899
24. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): .897
25. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): .895
26. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): .894
27. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): .888
28. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): .883
29. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): .880
30. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): .879
And here they are ranked by dfsv% (difference between save perecentage and expected save percentage):
1. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): +1.98
2. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): +1.65
3. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): +0.81
4. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): +0.71
5. Shesterkin (25, $0.9 x1): +0.67
6. Petersen (26, $0.9 x2): +0.63
7. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): +0.45
8. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): +0.40
9. Lankinen (25, $0.8 x2): +0.22
10. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): +0.18
11. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): +0.03
12. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): -0.17
13. Reimer (32, $3.4 x1): -0.18
14. Kahkonen (24, $0.7 x2): -0.26
15. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): -0.32
16. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): -0.50
17. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): -0.63
18. Price (33, $10.5 x6): -0.73
19. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): -0.83
20. Khudobin (34, $3.3 x3): -0.85
21. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): -0.86
22. Vanacek (24, $0.7 x2): -0.98
23. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): -0.99
24. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): -1.44
25. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): -1.60
26. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): -1.80
27. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): -1.89
28. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): -2.14
29. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): -2.22
30. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): -2.71
McSnypsky
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2019
- 2,033
- 1,344
Price is 10.5 million most of those goalies listed are 5ish mill less I think that's more the problem
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
and if we do the last 2yrs, minimum 45 games played (31 goalies total):
sv%
1. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): .923
2. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): .923
3. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): .922
4. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): .919
5. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): .918
6. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): .917
7. Ullmark (27, $2.6 x1): .916
8. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): .915
9. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): .914
10. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): .912
11. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): .912
12. Blackwood (24, $3.8 x3): .911
13. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): .910
14. Saros (25, $1.5 x1): .910
15. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): .909
16. Smith (38, $1.5 x1): .908
17. Price (33, $10.5 x6): .908
18. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): .908
19. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): .907
20. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): .906
21. Rittich (28, $2.8 x1): .906
22. Georgiev (24, $2.4 x2): .905
23. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): .905
24. Quick (34, $5.8 x2): .903
25. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): .903
26. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): .901
27. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): .900
28. Holtby (31, $4.3 x2): .897
29. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): .896
30. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): .892
31. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): .892
dfsv%
1. Kuemper (30, $4.5 x2): +0.61
2. Hellebuyck (27, $6.2 x4): +0.59
3. Rask (33, $7.0 x1): +0.38
4. Varlamov (32, $5.0 x3): +0.26
5. Demko (25, $1.1 x1): +0.26
6. Vasilevskiy (25, $9.5 x8): +0.23
7. Markstrom (30, $6.0 x6): +0.06
8. Grubauer (29, $3.3 x1): +0.05
9. Binnington (27, $6.0 x7): +0.03
10. Koskinen (32, $4.5 x2): -0.03
11. Bernier (32, $3.0 x1): -0.06
12. Smith (38, $1.5 x1): -0.06
13. Fleury (35, $7.0 x2): -0.14
14. Jarry (25, $3.5 x3): -0.18
15. Blackwood (24, $3.8 x3): -0.20
16. Georgiev (24, $2.4 x2): -0.25
17. Hart (22, $0.7 x1): -0.25
18. Saros (25, $1.5 x1): -0.30
19. Ullmark (27, $2.6 x1): -0.37
20. Quick (34, $5.8 x2): -0.42
21. Price (33, $10.5 x6): -0.52
22. Andersen (31, $5.0 x1): -0.56
23. Rittich (28, $2.8 x1): -0.57
24. Gibson (27, $6.4 x7): -0.61
25. Holtby (31, $4.3 x2): -0.75
26. Jones (30, $5.8 x4): -0.91
27. Bobrovsky (32, $10.0 x6): -0.92
28. Korpisalo (26, $2.8 x2): -0.93
29. Greiss (34, $3.6 x2): -1.06
30. Murray (26, $6.3 x4): -1.45
31. Rinne (38, $5.0 x1): -1.56
No matter which way you slice it, Freddy comes in as a below average starter who maybe you could try to argue is closer to average when factoring in workload....but that's far from clearcut.
Do we want to commit starter's money longterm to a 32yr old below average goalie?
I don't.
Last edited:
I'm gonna get back to staying within the division on Freddy as it's obvious the North is just rich with scoring and excellent powerplays. Comparing him to teams in the West just doesnt seem right.
Here is Andersen ranked with the other current starters in the North:
5v5 Save%:
1. Smith: .934
2. Price .931
3. Andersen: .926
4. Markstrom: .922
5. Hellebuyck: .921
6. Demko: .919
7. Murray: .888
PK Save%:
1. Demko: .882
2. Smith: .870
3. Markstrom: .867
4. Murray: .845
5. Hellebuyck: .838
6. Price: .835
7. Andersen: .791
Overall Save%:
1. Smith: .927
2. Demko: .914
3. Hellebuyck: .911
4. Markstrom: .908
5. Price .906
6. Andersen: .902
7. Murray: .880
Interesting numbers and Smith may be inflated by not being around when it was more run and gun earlier in the year.
Here is Andersen ranked with the other current starters in the North:
5v5 Save%:
1. Smith: .934
2. Price .931
3. Andersen: .926
4. Markstrom: .922
5. Hellebuyck: .921
6. Demko: .919
7. Murray: .888
PK Save%:
1. Demko: .882
2. Smith: .870
3. Markstrom: .867
4. Murray: .845
5. Hellebuyck: .838
6. Price: .835
7. Andersen: .791
Overall Save%:
1. Smith: .927
2. Demko: .914
3. Hellebuyck: .911
4. Markstrom: .908
5. Price .906
6. Andersen: .902
7. Murray: .880
Interesting numbers and Smith may be inflated by not being around when it was more run and gun earlier in the year.
zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
5v5 Save%:
1. Smith: .934 (backups .905) (+.29)
2. Price .931 (backups .940) (-.09)
3. Andersen: .926 (backups: .947) (-.21)
4. Markstrom: .922 (backups .924) (-.02)
5. Hellebuyck: .921 (backups .921) (---)
6. Demko: .919 (backups .903) (+.16)
7. Murray: .888 (backups .885) (+.03)
PK Save%:
1. Demko: .882 (backup .832) (+.50)
2. Smith: .870 (backups .851) (+.19)
3. Markstrom: .867 (backups .781) (+.86)
4. Murray: .845 (backups .761) (+.84)
5. Hellebuyck: .838 (backups .897) (-.59)
6. Price: .835 (backup .908) (-.73)
7. Andersen: .791 (Backups .862) (-.71)
Overall Save%:
1. Smith: .927 (backups .897) (+.30)
2. Demko: .914 (backups .893) (+.21)
3. Hellebuyck: .911 (backups .923) (-.12)
4. Markstrom: .908 (backups .901) (+.07)
5. Price .906 (backups .922) (-.16)
6. Andersen: .902 (backups .940) (-.38)
7. Murray: .880 (backups .871) (+.09)
Andersen the only one getting smoked by his backups no matter the situation.
The only ones close in this regard are Price and Helle - but both of their backups play exclusive backup duty against weaker teams, while Andy's backups have faced the firing squad.
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
The Leafs backups have been great and all but I'm just not that confident that the GSAA/60 rankings are gonna look like this by the end of the year:
Top 5 GSAA/60 (minimum 150 minutes played):
1. Campbell
2. Mrazek
3. Hutch
4. Vasy
5. Fleury
I know the Leafs are better defensively but just got the feeling our backups may have been playing over their heads in a small sample size.
who would you rather have :
- goalie with a top 5 best advanced stats in the league but lets in untimely soft goals
- goalie with good stats but plays extremely well under pressure, makes clutch saves
