Prospect Info: Timothy Liljegren

[LeafChief]

the idea that a 17th overall pick could "slide" in prospect status AFTER being as good as Lily has been at 18 and 19 in the AHL is hilarious, and dumb.

you do a re-draft right now and lily moves UP, not down.

Some believe he shouldn't have been drafted at all.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

I've watched Liljegren. There are very few people on these boards who have watched Liljegren more than I have over the last 4 years. The idea that Liljegren was given the Rielly treatment (or the Dermott treatment in the AHL) is simply not true. Did they concentrate on improving his defense? Of course. But, in both seasons he was given ample opportunity to contribute offensively. He was partnered with Rosen for most the season for F's sake - it was the pairing that Marlies needed to produce for the team to do ok (Rosen did, Liljegren didn't). He struggled mightily with that task of being the top guys and as Keefe said, was costing the Marlies games. People will then say that he wasn't given PP time, but 40% of his points came on the PP. Yes, he played himself off the PP because Rosen and Sandin were more effective, but with injuries and a call up to Rosen, Liljegren had plenty of PP time in the second half as well. Then they will say that his PP time wasn't any good because he didn't play on the 1st PP with Bracco. Well first of all the PP1 started out without Bracco (it was Grundstrom, Mueller, Timashov, Gagner and generally Liljegren at the start of the season), but Bracco played his way onto it. Secondly, half his points on the PP came with Bracco.

Liljegren simply hasn't put it together offensively in the AHL in two seasons (and I would argue that he hasn't put it together in 4 years of pro). It took dermott a little more than a season. It took Sandin a couple minutes. Hopefully Liljegren does soon, but I have strong doubts.

What about being a competent defender. Do you think he ever becomes reliable in his own zone? Is able to limit the mistakes?

 

[biotk]

What about being a competent defender. Do you think he ever becomes reliable in his own zone? Is able to limit the mistakes?

Liljegren is already a competent defender in the AHL. Defensively he is good at breaking up rushes. He has good body positioning. He is good at transitioning the puck out. He has become more physical over the past couple years, but is not great at breaking the cycle or winning puck battles. Sometimes he seems to lose the thread - not unusual for someone his age. And he still will make some bad turnovers when pressured. But most of that is something that will be worked out with time and experience.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

So much B.S in here. He's good. Skates better than most of the Nhl right now. Learning gap control and reads right now and quickness.

If thats a problem check the age. If its still a prob!!! Its yours not his

 

[Nithoniniel]

For what it's worth, I've heard that he did absolutely terrific in both shot metrics and micro stats, and that both shot and chance generation was there. Seemed to be a typical case of unsustainable OISH%.

Let's also not forget his age. A good measuring stick is that future top 4 d-men tend to be good AHLers by 21. Liljegren was a good AHLer as a 19-year old.

 

[Znith]

Liljegren is already a competent defender in the AHL. Defensively he is good at breaking up rushes. He has good body positioning. He is good at transitioning the puck out. He has become more physical over the past couple years, but is not great at breaking the cycle or winning puck battles. Sometimes he seems to lose the thread - not unusual for someone his age. And he still will make some bad turnovers when pressured. But most of that is something that will be worked out with time and experience.

Do you think he could be a serviceable second pairing RHD in the NHL?

 

[biotk]

Do you think he could be a serviceable second pairing RHD in the NHL?

I love Liljegren and think he still has a high ceiling, but one I am increasingly doubtful he gets near that ceiling. So I think he could.

But as for the likelihood, I am going to go with what a retired scout, who I have known for many years, said to me when I was talking to him at a Marlies game in the second round of the playoffs. This guy was also a damn good (but not an NHL) D back in the day and watches most Marlies home games.

I asked him if thought that Liljegren would still become a top 4 D? He said 20/80 (Roughly a year before I asked him the same question he said 50/50). That might not seem fair, as Liljegren is a better D this year than the year before. But you need to making a lot of progress each year.

 

[biotk]

For what it's worth, I've heard that he did absolutely terrific in both shot metrics and micro stats, and that both shot and chance generation was there. Seemed to be a typical case of unsustainable OISH%.

Next year I believe the league will be putting out their own statistics. I will be interested to see if they support the numbers compiled by a lone person, who I admire for his devotion, but let's just say I find it interesting that the player who managed to do very well in seemingly every single game is the same player for whom the guy recording the numbers is the biggest super fan of.

 

[ToDavid]

Liljegren simply hasn't put it together offensively in the AHL in two seasons (and I would argue that he hasn't put it together in 4 years of pro). It took dermott a little more than a season. It took Sandin a couple minutes. Hopefully Liljegren does soon, but I have strong doubts.

I appreciate the insight but you sort of lost me with comparing Liljegren’s “4 years of pro” with Dermott’s AHL career. I don’t see how Liljegren’s performance as a 16 year old in a men’s league is at all comparable to what Dermott did as a 20-21 year old.

 

[Snip Genos]

I love Liljegren and think he still has a high ceiling, but one I am increasingly doubtful he gets near that ceiling. So I think he could.

But as for the likelihood, I am going to go with what a retired scout, who I have known for many years, said to me when I was talking to him at a Marlies game in the second round of the playoffs. This guy was also a damn good (but not an NHL) D back in the day and watches most Marlies home games.

I asked him if thought that Liljegren would still become a top 4 D? He said 20/80 (Roughly a year before I asked him the same question he said 50/50). That might not seem fair, as Liljegren is a better D this year than the year before. But you need to making a lot of progress each year.

Did he explain his reasoning at all? And what were his thoughts on Sandin?

 

[biotk]

I appreciate the insight but you sort of lost me with comparing Liljegren’s “4 years of pro” with Dermott’s AHL career. I don’t see how Liljegren’s performance as a 16 year old in a men’s league is at all comparable to what Dermott did as a 20-21 year old.

Fair enough.

 

[biotk]

Did he explain his reasoning at all? And what were his thoughts on Sandin?

He said quite a bit, and I can't recall all of it. Partly he wanted Liljegren to really take charge on the ice with players like Dermott and Holl gone. He felt the year before that if everything could come together Liljegren would have a really high ceiling (he might still feel that, don't know). Mostly he just said that issues he was willing to overlook the first year still hadn't been corrected. There are some issues with his skating that he was hoping would be straightened out by working with Underhill by that he doesn't feel have progressed much. Part of the issue is that feels Liljegren works really hard and if the issues are not resolved with hard work, and within an organization that has a lot of resources, then there are probably underlying problems that will be much harder to work out. Liljegren had a really good 3rd round. Maybe his opinion might have changed a bit by then, don't know. We only talked a little bit about Sandin, although he clearly likes him. Basically he felt that Sandin was a likely 2nd pairing D, who will likely be held back from being more by a couple issues such as his speed not quite being good enough.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Next year I believe the league will be putting out their own statistics. I will be interested to see if they support the numbers compiled by a lone person, who I admire for his devotion, but let's just say I find it interesting that the player who managed to do very well in seemingly every single game is the same player for whom the guy recording the numbers is the biggest super fan of.

Who is this person, and which player is he a super fan of?

Do we have access to these statistics?

 

[biotk]

Who is this person, and which player is he a super fan of?

Do we have access to these statistics?

Jeff Veillette tracked things like CF for the Marlies this season (I don't mean he tracked it for the Marlies organization, but tracked their games). It is a subscription service, but he often tweets his results during the games. He is a massive Liljegren fan. Tracking things like CF is hard and there is definitely grey areas when it comes to, say, whether a non-obvious block or miss should count as a shot attempt or an attempted pass for instance. Unintended bias can easily creep in.

 

[crump]

With one of Muzzin or Barrie likely gone next year (possibly both) as well as Ceci, Sandin and Liljegren will be ripe to take over those spots. They probably want to get them in to at least 9 games after the trade deadline (if not sooner) to see how they fair, and to give them some NHL experience. Hopefully Dermott will be a solid #3/4 by then as well. Hopefully we have room to sign Muzzin longer term after this season. With Barrie probably asking the moon, Liljegren takes on a huge role 2020/21.

 

[Znith]

He said quite a bit, and I can't recall all of it. Partly he wanted Liljegren to really take charge on the ice with players like Dermott and Holl gone. He felt the year before that if everything could come together Liljegren would have a really high ceiling (he might still feel that, don't know). Mostly he just said that issues he was willing to overlook the first year still hadn't been corrected. There are some issues with his skating that he was hoping would be straightened out by working with Underhill by that he doesn't feel have progressed much. Part of the issue is that feels Liljegren works really hard and if the issues are not resolved with hard work, and within an organization that has a lot of resources, then there are probably underlying problems that will be much harder to work out. Liljegren had a really good 3rd round. Maybe his opinion might have changed a bit by then, don't know. We only talked a little bit about Sandin, although he clearly likes him. Basically he felt that Sandin was a likely 2nd pairing D, who will likely be held back from being more by a couple issues such as his speed not quite being good enough.

Sandin on the 2nd pairing behind Rielly would be great. I still think that Babs needs to experiment with moving Dermott to the RD slot...didn't Dermott play a bit of the right side with the Marlies?

 

[Sypher04]

I love Liljegren and think he still has a high ceiling, but one I am increasingly doubtful he gets near that ceiling. So I think he could.

But as for the likelihood, I am going to go with what a retired scout, who I have known for many years, said to me when I was talking to him at a Marlies game in the second round of the playoffs. This guy was also a damn good (but not an NHL) D back in the day and watches most Marlies home games.

I asked him if thought that Liljegren would still become a top 4 D? He said 20/80 (Roughly a year before I asked him the same question he said 50/50). That might not seem fair, as Liljegren is a better D this year than the year before. But you need to making a lot of progress each year.

Hang on, is the insinuation that Liljegren didn't progress from year 1 to year 2? because that's plainly inaccurate.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

With one of Muzzin or Barrie likely gone next year (possibly both) as well as Ceci, Sandin and Liljegren will be ripe to take over those spots. They probably want to get them in to at least 9 games after the trade deadline (if not sooner) to see how they fair, and to give them some NHL experience. Hopefully Dermott will be a solid #3/4 by then as well. Hopefully we have room to sign Muzzin longer term after this season. With Barrie probably asking the moon, Liljegren takes on a huge role 2020/21.

They'll both get a short window of game opportunity to play with Leafs this season, based on injuries, to see how their games have evolved. and they both will get, hopefully, full seasons with Marlies without injury. Both were hurt last season. I think they are both very good prospects and we will need them both in future based on the CAP. The playoffs showed each guys strengths and weaknesses. Lily needs to work hard on his core to help him stay on his feet more when hit which we saw in rounds 1 and 2. Sandin needs more speed as we saw in round 3 when game pace sped up he really struggled with his outlets. These guys both can be top 4 guys they are so so young for defenders. I mean they are in high school on the development curve when top NHL defense fully develop by 25-28. They need some room to grow and develop with Marlies. If we are going to go with that 4F 1D PP model then they should at minimum share PP#1 time. Giving Lily the backend or last 20-30 seconds will not help him develop his offensive game. To compare on points is really not fair. Even if you say well Lily had a bad start to season on PP#1 which caused Keefe to switch him out for Sandin because it was costing team. Well that will still not help Lily develop offensively and the goal should be to help him develop. It is not all about winning and losing games in AHL it is about developing NHL players.

 

[biotk]

Hang on, is the insinuation that Liljegren didn't progress from year 1 to year 2? because that's plainly inaccurate.

The insinuation is that Liljgren didn't progress enough from year 1 to year 2. The expectation is massive improvement each year at this level when you are in this age range. The expectation is that several issues which can be overlooked in your D+1 won't be overlooked during your D+2 because they should be corrected by then. A year ago you could easily make the argument that in a re-draft Liljegren would move up, maybe by quite a bit. If you made that argument now you would not be taken seriously because you are obviously a complete homer.

 

[biotk]

Sandin on the 2nd pairing behind Rielly would be great. I still think that Babs needs to experiment with moving Dermott to the RD slot...didn't Dermott play a bit of the right side with the Marlies?

People say that Dermott played on the right a lot on Marlies, and maybe he did during his rookie season, but he didn't in the games I watched him during his second season. I would love to see Dermott make the jump to the top-4, but he hasn't been overly impressive when moved up so far. I would be happy with Dermott playing on the third pairing with Liljegren (but I highly doubt we see Liljegren for more than a couple games this season). Assuming Sandin continues to improve at a rapid pace I see him as a 2nd pairing D for the 2020/21 season. Realistically the Leafs' cap situation means that they need to get value from his ELC, and that doesn't happen with him on the 3rd pairing.

 

[stickty111]

The progress he made was amazing.

 

[DarkKnight]

Lil would be a lot better off if people just let him develop. The hype train has been over the top since he was drafted, just relax already, he’s right where you want a kid to be. Still an IF, but that’s what he is until he proves he isn’t. He’s an intriguing player, should be a fun camp...the first he’s even remotely a serious threat.

 

[43Kadri43]

Next year I believe the league will be putting out their own statistics. I will be interested to see if they support the numbers compiled by a lone person, who I admire for his devotion, but let's just say I find it interesting that the player who managed to do very well in seemingly every single game is the same player for whom the guy recording the numbers is the biggest super fan of.

He’s a super fan because he managed to do well in those metrics

 

[meefer]

18 year old kid makes the jump to the A after a short season due to mono, scores at historic level rates for his age in a sheltered role. 'Ya, but his D sucks.'
19 year old kid is tasked with improving his defense, goes out and becomes a player on the 1st D after a debilitating high ankle sprain and becomes in the words of his coach "he's as good as anyone we've had." 'Ya, but where did his O go?'

To be a highly touted prospect in this market must suck. Patience is replaced with patients each and every day.

 

[DopeyFish]

I remember seeing some of the fancy stats from the playoff run... sandin started to get exploited according to the advanced stats and liljegren turned into a possession monster

I believe that liljegren should start the season with the Leafs... when you're pushing 70+% cf% in a lot of playoff games, it's probably best to keep the challenge coming and work the minor details in the NHL.