Prospect Info: Timothy Liljegren

[JT AM da real deal]

I can't seem to recall, does Keefe run a 1D PP as well?

yep replicates last year Babs PP

 

[TML1967]

Its about time the Leafs let Lil be the number 1 dman on the Marlies. Let him play in all situations and force him to grow everywhere. If he fails so be it. But its time for us to see what this kid has. No more sheltering. PP, PK and lead team in minutes by D. Its time.

Its gonna be interesting to see what the top pairing is.
Does Keefe go Sandin-Liljgren?
Does a Gravel/Harpur/Marincin get top pair?

I would love to see Sandin and Liljgren get paired so they get really used to eachother. Would be a great 3rd pair next year, assuming Ceci is gone or signed for much less, and Barie walks but we keep Muzzin.

2020-2021
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - ?? Ceci/UFA
Sandin - Liljgren

 

[93LEAFS]

I can't seem to recall, does Keefe run a 1D PP as well?

Pretty much all teams do, except rare exceptions like Nashville and San Jose. It's become the industry standard. It's shown to be more effective than a 3f-2d set-up. Marlies even tried a 5f powerplay at some point for a game or two and it was a disaster though. This was 2 or so years ago. Justin Bourne mentioned they tried this while he was employed with them at an event I was at.

The only recent 2D PP that has been a top 10 unit in the NHL is SJ's which has the 2 best offensive D in the league, and one who has significant experience as a forward. Plus, when Karlsson was injured (which was over a 1/3rd of the regular season this year) they swap in a 4th F.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I can't seem to recall, does Keefe run a 1D PP as well?

The Marlies try their best to mirror the Leafs systems, good for the prospects and call ups

 

[Pholus]

Its gonna be interesting to see what the top pairing is.
Does Keefe go Sandin-Liljgren?
Does a Gravel/Harpur/Marincin get top pair?

For all the hate he gets at the thought of even pencilling him as the 7th dman, Marincin has shown over the past couple years that he can definitely handle playing on the top pairing in the AHL. I believe he has spent quite a bit of time partnered with Liljegren on the Marlies, and would have no problem with Keefe using that pairing together for 20mins a night. That being said, I could also quite easily see Marincin (and Gravel) stapled to the hip of one of the rookie RD (Duszak/Hollowell/Lindgren) to help with their adjustment to the AHL.

 

[deletethis]

When you're right you're right. Liljegren is much better off with two partial seasons at AHL speed than playing against 16 - 20 year olds. Actually there should be nothing controversial about that. I've been arguing for years that certain draft picks are forced to stay in the CHL too long to their detriment.

 

[TML1967]

For all the hate he gets at the thought of even pencilling him as the 7th dman, Marincin has shown over the past couple years that he can definitely handle playing on the top pairing in the AHL. I believe he has spent quite a bit of time partnered with Liljegren on the Marlies, and would have no problem with Keefe using that pairing together for 20mins a night. That being said, I could also quite easily see Marincin (and Gravel) stapled to the hip of one of the rookie RD (Duszak/Hollowell/Lindgren) to help with their adjustment to the AHL.

Oh Marincin has been awesome as a 1st pair AHL guy, but i agree with your second point.
If you can have Marincin with Duszak, Gravel with Hollowell (Lindgren repalces one and then the other, the 3 rotating ice time) with a top pair of Sandin Liljgren that would be amazing.

 

[Fogelhund]

Lily is a Leaf before the end of the season. Hopefully he is put in a position to grow his offensive game with the Marlies, before this happens.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

When you're right you're right. Liljegren is much better off with two partial seasons at AHL speed than playing against 16 - 20 year olds. Actually there should be nothing controversial about that. I've been arguing for years that certain draft picks are forced to stay in the CHL too long to their detriment.

I get that the CHL doesn’t want to lose talented players immediately once they’re drafted, but there should be some rule that allows teams to place teenagers who don’t have the benefit of being from Europe to play in the AHL. Like an exceptional prospect rule that allows teams to take one player drafted out of the CHL that year to jump straight into the AHL, or a financial compensation rule if teams feel they’re losing business by not having a great player drawing a crowd.

 

[Fogelhund]

I get that the CHL doesn’t want to lose talented players immediately once they’re drafted, but there should be some rule that allows teams to place teenagers who don’t have the benefit of being from Europe to play in the AHL. Like an exceptional prospect rule that allows teams to take one player drafted out of the CHL that year to jump straight into the AHL, or a financial compensation rule if teams feel they’re losing business by not having a great player drawing a crowd.

First round picks....

 

[LeafChief]

Lily is a Leaf before the end of the season. Hopefully he is put in a position to grow his offensive game with the Marlies, before this happens.

I'd imagine he'll start with the Marlies and come up in and around Christmas (a la Dermott a few years ago).

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

First round picks....

But what if you pick in the top 5 and your guy can jump straight into the NHL? Your 2nd round pick might be too good for the CHL but too bad, he was a 2nd round pick or below so no dice.

 

[deletethis]

But what if you pick in the top 5 and your guy can jump straight into the NHL? Your 2nd round pick might be too good for the CHL but too bad, he was a 2nd round pick or below so no dice.

The NHL team/NHL transfers some money to the CHL team as a form of compensation for losing the player before his 20th birthday. It would be on average less than a player per CHL team lost if limited to 1st and 2nd round picks.

Of course this would require a new agreement between the CHL and the NHL.

 

[Fogelhund]

But what if you pick in the top 5 and your guy can jump straight into the NHL? Your 2nd round pick might be too good for the CHL but too bad, he was a 2nd round pick or below so no dice.

Have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.

 

[biotk]

I personally think that Liljegren would have been better off playing in the OHL in 2017/18, and he likely would have been if Niagara didn't draft him before London did. He's been damaged from 4 years of pro hockey before he was ready to succeed at that level. Yeah, sure his defence has improved. He has no offense and has dealt with a lot of injuries. Missed opportunity. Luckily Sandin went the OHL route in his draft year.

 

[stickty111]

I can't seem to recall, does Keefe run a 1D PP as well?

Yes he does.

 

[slimbob8]

I personally think that Liljegren would have been better off playing in the OHL in 2017/18, and he likely would have been if Niagara didn't draft him before London did. He's been damaged from 4 years of pro hockey before he was ready to succeed at that level. Yeah, sure his defence has improved. He has no offense and has dealt with a lot of injuries. Missed opportunity. Luckily Sandin went the OHL route in his draft year.

He has no offense? That's news to me

 

[Macallan18]

You seem to be able to write but don't seem to be able to read. Seems like some Leaf haters on this site think he is bust. Gee, I know the Leafs are depending on him to be a starter in 2021. As someone attends Marlie games, he looks like an NHLer to me.

Yeah, I liked your original post, seems to me you were being sarcastic towards some posters writing off Lily at 20 when he still shows more promise than Priske at 23. But who knows, still drinking my first coffee of the day....

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I get that the CHL doesn’t want to lose talented players immediately once they’re drafted, but there should be some rule that allows teams to place teenagers who don’t have the benefit of being from Europe to play in the AHL. Like an exceptional prospect rule that allows teams to take one player drafted out of the CHL that year to jump straight into the AHL, or a financial compensation rule if teams feel they’re losing business by not having a great player drawing a crowd.

I agree with what you're saying but the NHL and CHL have an agreement in place and theres zero motivation for the CHL to allow any sort of exceptional status, even if they were compensated. I've argued it for years myself but theres really no point in it. The CHL wants it the way it is and the NHL accepts it since the vast majority of their stars comes from that league. Theres not much push from the NHL here either.

 

[biotk]

He has no offense? That's news to me

If Liljegren's complete lack of offense is news to you, that doesn't make it any less true. Liljegren, despite 1st pairing minutes all season, was on pace for 17 ES points/82 games last season (the exact same as the season before). That is behind basically everyone.

I am not just talking about compared to D who have been called up in the last couple years

Rosen was pacing at 41 ES points/82 last season. Dermott and Holl were pacing at 36 and 35 ES points/82 the season before. Carrick was at 32 ES points/82 back in 2015/16 when he was called up.

And I am not just talking about compared to D who play on the Marlies

Rosen, again, was at a 41 ES points/82 game pace, Sandin 30, Borgman 29, Subban 22. Marincin the year before was at 27 and Loverde 21. Nielsen in 2017/18 was at 23, and that was his off-year that resulted in him being traded. Valiev who was traded in 2018 paced for 30 that year.

And I am not just talking about all of the D who were drafted in the same year as him who were playing in the AHL last season ranging from Valimaki, taken one spot before Liljegren, at 37 ES points/82 to Fleury, taken 70 spots after Liljegren, pacing at 19.

And I am not just talking about compared to D who everyone would have been completely irate about anyone having the audacity to compare them to Liljegren like Keaton Middleton 18 or Kylington who was at 25 in his D+2 year, 36 in his D+3 year and 46 last season (his D+4 year) when he finally started playing some NHL games - 12 minutes per on the third pairing - which is realistically where Liljegren projects to be - a future third pairing D.

While Lilly's cheerleading section get louder as he slides, the reality is that he continues to slide. Sean Tierney's prospect pool has him behind not only Leafs' prospects Ds like Sandin and Hollowell, but behind....well I am not even going to say them. Pronman's recent ranking of Leafs' prospects had him falling from 1st a year ago to 5th. Wheeler's NHL prospects rankings have him falling big time from a year before as well.

 

[4thline]

This fanbase seems to have completely forgotten that there are projections between steal/superstar/ top pair and depth player.

 

[slimbob8]

If Liljegren's complete lack of offense is news to you, that doesn't make it any less true. Liljegren, despite 1st pairing minutes all season, was on pace for 17 ES points/82 games last season (the exact same as the season before). That is behind basically everyone.

I am not just talking about compared to D who have been called up in the last couple years

Rosen was pacing at 41 ES points/82 last season. Dermott and Holl were pacing at 36 and 35 ES points/82 the season before. Carrick was at 32 ES points/82 back in 2015/16 when he was called up.

And I am not just talking about compared to D who play on the Marlies

Rosen, again, was at a 41 ES points/82 game pace, Sandin 30, Borgman 29, Subban 22. Marincin the year before was at 27 and Loverde 21. Nielsen in 2017/18 was at 23, and that was his off-year that resulted in him being traded. Valiev who was traded in 2018 paced for 30 that year.

And I am not just talking about all of the D who were drafted in the same year as him who were playing in the AHL last season ranging from Valimaki, taken one spot before Liljegren, at 37 ES points/82 to Fleury, taken 70 spots after Liljegren, pacing at 19.

And I am not just talking about compared to D who everyone would have been completely irate about anyone having the audacity to compare them to Liljegren like Keaton Middleton 18 or Kylington who was at 25 in his D+2 year, 36 in his D+3 year and 46 last season (his D+4 year) when he finally started playing some NHL games - 12 minutes per on the third pairing - which is realistically where Liljegren projects to be - a future third pairing D.

While Lilly's cheerleading section get louder as he slides, the reality is that he continues to slide. Sean Tierney's prospect pool has him behind not only Leafs' prospects Ds like Sandin and Hollowell, but behind....well I am not even going to say them. Pronman's recent ranking of Leafs' prospects had him falling from 1st a year ago to 5th. Wheeler's NHL prospects rankings have him falling big time from a year before as well.

I think the problem with your analysis is you're using nothing but points to evaluate the player's offense. For teenagers, this is a poor strategy even for forwards. It's even worse for evaluating d-men. Not saying points don't matter by any means, but there's much more that goes into projecting prospects than simple points. If we used that same logic with Rielly early on his career we would have come to the same conclusion about a lack of offense.

But when you dig deeper it's because coaches put Rielly in positions to improve his defensive game knowing full well the offensive numbers would struggle as a result. It's a long term plan to develop a better all around player. It's common knowledge that the Marlies have been trying to do something similar with Liljegren and it appears to be working out based on how much his defensive game has grown. Just watch the player; the offensive tools are all there and they're not going away. I have zero concerns about his offense going forward.

Andrew Nielsen is a terrible, terrible comparison as well. Even when he was putting up decent numbers all you heard about was how lacking his overall game was. Liljegren is getting top pairing difficult matchup minutes and all signs point to him thriving in this role. The point totals will come; he's too talented for them not to.

 

[biotk]

I think the problem with your analysis is you're using nothing but points to evaluate the player's offense. For teenagers, this is a poor strategy even for forwards. It's even worse for evaluating d-men. Not saying points don't matter by any means, but there's much more that goes into projecting prospects than simple points. If we used that same logic with Rielly early on his career we would have come to the same conclusion about a lack of offense.

But when you dig deeper it's because coaches put Rielly in positions to improve his defensive game knowing full well the offensive numbers would struggle as a result. It's a long term plan to develop a better all around player. It's common knowledge that the Marlies have been trying to do something similar with Liljegren and it appears to be working out based on how much his defensive game has grown. Just watch the player; the offensive tools are all there and they're not going away. I have zero concerns about his offense going forward.

Andrew Nielsen is a terrible, terrible comparison as well. Even when he was putting up decent numbers all you heard about was how lacking his overall game was. Liljegren is getting top pairing difficult matchup minutes and all signs point to him thriving in this role. The point totals will come; he's too talented for them not to.

I've watched Liljegren. There are very few people on these boards who have watched Liljegren more than I have over the last 4 years. The idea that Liljegren was given the Rielly treatment (or the Dermott treatment in the AHL) is simply not true. Did they concentrate on improving his defense? Of course. But, in both seasons he was given ample opportunity to contribute offensively. He was partnered with Rosen for most the season for F's sake - it was the pairing that Marlies needed to produce for the team to do ok (Rosen did, Liljegren didn't). He struggled mightily with that task of being the top guys and as Keefe said, was costing the Marlies games. People will then say that he wasn't given PP time, but 40% of his points came on the PP. Yes, he played himself off the PP because Rosen and Sandin were more effective, but with injuries and a call up to Rosen, Liljegren had plenty of PP time in the second half as well. Then they will say that his PP time wasn't any good because he didn't play on the 1st PP with Bracco. Well first of all the PP1 started out without Bracco (it was Grundstrom, Mueller, Timashov, Gagner and generally Liljegren at the start of the season), but Bracco played his way onto it. Secondly, half his points on the PP came with Bracco.

Liljegren simply hasn't put it together offensively in the AHL in two seasons (and I would argue that he hasn't put it together in 4 years of pro). It took dermott a little more than a season. It took Sandin a couple minutes. Hopefully Liljegren does soon, but I have strong doubts.

 

[zeke]

the idea that a 17th overall pick could "slide" in prospect status AFTER being as good as Lily has been at 18 and 19 in the AHL is hilarious, and dumb.

you do a re-draft right now and lily moves UP, not down.

 

[Maple Leaf]

the idea that a 17th overall pick could "slide" in prospect status AFTER being as good as Lily has been at 18 and 19 in the AHL is hilarious, and dumb.

you do a re-draft right now and lily moves UP, not down.

It doesn't matter
He will prove what he is worth shortly