Tim Thomas or Roberto Luongo & all goalie trade discussion

[Fogelhund]

Have we discussed the possibility of bring in Luongo and using one of the buyouts on him and negotiating a more reasonable contract? Does that make any sense?

No. You can't resign someone you buyout.

 

[ForSpareParts*]

That's a terrible trade for Vancouver. Terrible. I think Luongo ends up in FLA...but it is pretty well known that Gillis will want a roster centerman as part of the deal. Center is not exaclty the Leafs strength, so not only is it a bad deal for the Canucks...its a horrible deal for the Leafs although outside of Kadri I couldn't care less.

Why would FLA want to lose Weiss or any roster center? To make Luongo happy? Aren't they at all happy with Theodore?

Let Gillis make a second trade to some other team if he feels that he has to replace Kesler ASAP.

 

[Mess]

I would love to see what people think would be going the other way.

What do think? Who's leaving Toronto?

I am going to stick to the rumoured Bozak, Kadri, plus a prospect. If the tumour of Raymond coming back our way then maybe:

To Van
Bozak, Kadri, Rynnas, Franson

To Toronto
Luongo, Raymond

I'm not clairvoyant, however I think you're pretty close here.

Luongo and Raymond seem right to me, and Bozak (for sure), Kadri (likely) and high pick also seem like very good guesses.

This last summers rumour was Bozak, Gardiner, Frattin and a 1st for Luongo + ?? as Mike Gillis asking price.. Which Toronto found as too steep a price to pay.. Leafs are hopefully not parting with Gardiner, and Vancouver's price may have come done if it wants to get a deal done, so substituting for him seems like the logical solution here.

Cody Franson (a BC boy) was a Vancouver Giant junior player so Vancouver would know him well as he played in their back yard, and Bozak who played 3 seasons in the BCHL Tier II with Victoria before heading off to Denver is also well known in BC. So being potential trade assets fits into a guess scenario because of ties to the Province in the past. It might come down to Kardi or Frattin and a pick.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

They only need a temporary centerman while Kesler is out.

Long term they'd probably be happy getting a 3rd. line centerman, who can play in the top 6.

Bozak doesn't fit in with the Nucks, IMO...they need some grit in their bottom 6 seeing that their top 6 is pretty soft. Kadri can maybe fit the bill...but he hasn't had much experience at C in the NHL.....and If the Panthers are offering Weiss...this is a no brainer for Gillis.

 

[Pi]

I'd love to have Luongo on one condition:

If he retires early, they are on the hook for half of his cap hit (I haven't read the CBA, I'm not even sure if some sort of similar deal is possible).

 

[Mess]

Have we discussed the possibility of bring in Luongo and using one of the buyouts on him and negotiating a more reasonable contract? Does that make any sense?

You tell me..

Roberto Luongo is 34 years old on the buyout date of June 15, 2013, setting the buyout ratio at 2/3 and the total buyout cost at $27,046,667 spread over 18 years of payments.

http://www.capgeek.com/buyout-calculator/?player_id=683&buyout_y=2013&buyout_m=06&buyout_d=15

Would Vancouver Owners rather see (and be better off) trading him (even for spare parts) or paying out over $27 mil to make him go away?

 

[Dylbot]

just dumping salary
maybe they could add a useful checker...... higgins ?

But Lombardi and Connolly are off the books next year (8.25 Million), and the Leafs don't need to rid themselves of their salaries this season. There's no value added to getting rid of their salaries this season in a deal that would mean giving up a greater amount of assets than necessary.

While he may have value to the acquiring team, anyone who takes Luongo off the Canucks hands is doing them favour. In my humble opinion that means that one of two returns will be paid. Either the Canucks return the favour and take on a bad long term contract (though not as expensive or long as Luongo's), or he's given away for negligible assets.

This is of course if what I think I heard is correct, that after retirement contracts remain against the salary cap under the new CBA.

 

[topched]

Bozak doesn't fit in with the Nucks, IMO...they need some grit in their bottom 6 seeing that their top 6 is pretty soft. Kadri can maybe fit the bill...but he hasn't had much experience at C in the NHL.....and If the Panthers are offering Weiss...this is a no brainer for Gillis.

Bozak isn't gritty enough but Kadri is?

I'd honestly be just fine with having the Panthers trade for Luongo. Go make a deal for Theodore, which would be just as easy.

Theodore got FLA to the playoffs last year, not anywhere near Luongo's level, but good enough insurance in order to see if Reimer is the real deal.

 

[Fogelhund]

It seems like to be Bozak, Kadri and either a 2nd or Franson.

Not sure why Raymond keeps popping up in this deal.

 

[Stats01]

Why would FLA want to lose Weiss or any roster center? To make Luongo happy? Aren't they at all happy with Theodore?

Let Gillis make a second trade to some other team if he feels that he has to replace Kesler ASAP.

The Panthers also have Markstrom, they've been grooming him to be the starter for a few years now.

 

[Joey Hoser]

You tell me..

Roberto Luongo is 34 years old on the buyout date of June 15, 2013, setting the buyout ratio at 2/3 and the total buyout cost at $27,046,667 spread over 18 years of payments.

I meant us trading for him and using one of our own amnesty buyouts, which I thought wouldn't result in the extended cap-hit. If that's not the case, what are the amnesty buyouts actually for?

But I was informed on the last page that you can't re-sign a player you buy out, so I guess the whole thing is moot anyway.

 

[ULF_55]

I meant us trading for him and using one of our own amnesty buyouts, which I thought wouldn't result in the extended cap-hit. If that's not the case, what are the amnesty buyouts actually for?

But I was informed on the last page that you can't re-sign a player you buy out, so I guess the whole thing is moot anyway.

Even if there is no cap hit $27 million isn't the type of money a struggling league should be contemplating.

League almost folded due to financial hardship.

;-)

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

The ball system is not eliminated there are just more teams involved in it.





The four move restriction is gone so the team that finishes dead last could finish anywhere in the lottery.




But the inclusion of more teams throws off the chances of winning the lottery and even of ending up with a pick that is anywhere near your place in the order of finish.




Not worth it as that high end talent might not contribute to the Leafs for a couple of seasons at least.

Man, percentages are there for a reason. You're discounting the use of weighted percentages applied to each standings position. It's not like the 14th last team has the same odds as the bottom 3 teams as you seem to be implying.

 

[MajorityRules*]

The details are out (there is a thread here discussing them) and yes, teams can drop multiple places because the rule preventing a team from dropping more than four places is gone. So a team could finish dead last in the regular season and then also finish dead last in the lottery. It is a whole new ballgame now.

Where are you getting your information from? I think you're confused as to the way the lottery used to work.



At the conclusion of the regular season, the 14 NHL teams not qualifying for the playoffs are entered in a weighted lottery to determine the initial draft picks in the first round, seeded according to regular season standing. The 30th-place team has the best chance of winning the lottery while the 29th-place team has a 18.8% chance of winning, with odds diminishing to a 0.5% chance for the 17th-place team (such that the odds of the 17th-place team picking in what would be its non-lottery order of 14th are 99.5%). A single selection from the lottery pool is made, with the winning team improving its draft position by up to four places, and no team dropping more than one place. Therefore, only the 26th through 30th place teams are eligible to receive the first overall draft pick.


Pay attention to the bolded. There was never a rule that prevented teams from dropping more than 4 places because teams never dropped more than 1 place. If the team that finished 30th did not win the lottery they would pick 2nd, the 29th place team would pick 3rd etc etc etc until you reached the team that won the lottery and everyone after would continue to pick in their respective places.

Although it hasn't come out yet exactly how the new system will work, my guess is the only major difference will be anyone in the bottom 14 positions will have a chance at picking 1st but nobody will move more than 1 place down in the order, which is the way it's been since they introduced the lottery.

If you know something different, can you kindly point me in the right direction so I can read it?

 

[ULF_55]

Man, percentages are there for a reason. You're discounting the use of weighted percentages applied to each standings position. It's not like the 14th last team has the same odds as the bottom 3 teams as you seem to be implying.

When was the last time the Leafs did a trade after considering the "worst case scenario" and it became the worst case scenario?

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

When was the last time the Leafs did a trade after considering the "worst case scenario" and it became the worst case scenario?

Fair enough. I have made it clear though, I have little faith in our luck

 

[slozo]

I disagree that Vancouver is in a bad position (at least for this season)...

Luongo fits under their current cap situation this year, so there is no pressing need to trade him today, unless its more an issue of resolving a potential issue dealing with team harmony/chemistry and distractions if kept..

Also Vancouver even in a shortened season ahead is still primed as a strong Cup contender, this being based on winning the President's trophy the past 2 seasons running as best regular season team.

So if Schneider fails/struggles or gets injured than Vancouver's Cup aspirations are flushed down the drain with that, if Eddie Lack is the only option.. Which makes Luongo for this season a really good insurance policy if nothing else with 2 NHL starting goalies in tow, and a really good idea for the Canucks. IMO

I personally would wait until this summer, or if a top team needs a goalie this year and is desperate to acquire Luo at a steep price, or I could get a return that helps my team moving forward this year (and beyond) with a better chance of winning it all before dealing him.

If Tyler Bozak who is a UFA at seasons end, and if he is the best piece that Vancouver is getting from Leafs then why bother unless dumping that contract at all costs is the real motivation here. If the situation were reversed here and Leafs were a strong contender and I was dumping a proven starting NHL goalie for spare parts to simply dump a contract, then I would be angry if it hurt the team and its chances this season for success.

Not sure how you don't see that Vancouver is in an undesireable position.

The #1 thing a GM DOESN'T need is other teams knowing you want to / NEED TO unload a valuable piece. This IMMEDIATELY lowers the value of the player in almost all cases, and here is no exception.

There absolutely is pressure to trade Luongo before the start of the season . . . from what Luongo has stated publicly, to Schneider's playing time, to Luongo's weighty contract, to Vancouver wanting to get the fullest value possible for him.

If they keep Luongo like you postulate, his market value drops in half, and of course the obvious, it's absolutely shoddy GM management of player contracts/value. One would only do that kind of thing in an emergency situation (ie a goalie loses his ability to play goal mid season). No way does Vancouver do that.

One must never, EVER listen to what public statements are made by both trading parties before a trade . . . at best, it's obfuscation; at worst, it's disinformation and outright untruths. And that's all fair and good, it's professional sports, so why would some dummy GM ever even hint at him needing to unload his star, big contract goalie? Why would Burke ever want to display the slightest hint of urgency at improving his goaltendign position? Of course they won't give the game away!

So please,
Give me your reasons as to why a GM would want to:
1) decrease Luongo's trade value
2) create dissent/confusion in the dressing room
3) slightly undermine your new young goalie's confidence by keeping the other starter
4) greatly increase the chance of horrible play from Luongo/further dissention by not trading him and keeping him as a back-up

Would you want Burke to do that? I sure wouldn't . . .

 

[Stats01]

Tony Ambrogio of Sportsnet is on Tim and Sid right now and says that Luongo's first choice is Florida but they aren't interested in him or his salary, and besides the Leafs he argues that it's hard to find anyone else in the league at this time who is interested in him. Can we just call a spade a spade and get this deal done already...I know we have to wait until the CBA is ratified :p

Ambrogio also predicts that Luongo will be a Leaf on opening night. So that makes it Ambrogio, Shannon, Millard, Kypreos who have all said Luongo will be a Leaf.

 

[phillipsj89]

Not sure how you don't see that Vancouver is in an undesireable position.

The #1 thing a GM DOESN'T need is other teams knowing you want to / NEED TO unload a valuable piece. This IMMEDIATELY lowers the value of the player in almost all cases, and here is no exception.

There absolutely is pressure to trade Luongo before the start of the season . . . from what Luongo has stated publicly, to Schneider's playing time, to Luongo's weighty contract, to Vancouver wanting to get the fullest value possible for him.

If they keep Luongo like you postulate, his market value drops in half, and of course the obvious, it's absolutely shoddy GM management of player contracts/value. One would only do that kind of thing in an emergency situation (ie a goalie loses his ability to play goal mid season). No way does Vancouver do that.

One must never, EVER listen to what public statements are made by both trading parties before a trade . . . at best, it's obfuscation; at worst, it's disinformation and outright untruths. And that's all fair and good, it's professional sports, so why would some dummy GM ever even hint at him needing to unload his star, big contract goalie? Why would Burke ever want to display the slightest hint of urgency at improving his goaltendign position? Of course they won't give the game away!

So please,
Give me your reasons as to why a GM would want to:
1) decrease Luongo's trade value
2) create dissent/confusion in the dressing room
3) slightly undermine your new young goalie's confidence by keeping the other starter
4) greatly increase the chance of horrible play from Luongo/further dissention by not trading him and keeping him as a back-up

Would you want Burke to do that? I sure wouldn't . . .

Does his value drop in half if reimer and scrivy play like crap (which they will)?

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

Tony Ambrogio of Sportsnet is on Tim and Sid right now and says that Luongo's first choice is Florida but they aren't interested in him or his salary, and besides the Leafs he argues that it's hard to find anyone else in the league at this time who is interested in him. Can we just call a spade a spade and get this deal done already...I know we have to wait until the CBA is ratified :p

Ambrogio also predicts that Luongo will be a Leaf on opening night. So that makes it Ambrogio, Shannon, Millard, Kypreos who have all said Luongo will be a Leaf.

He seemed pretty confident and plugged into the situation

 

[topched]

He seemed pretty confident and plugged into the situation

He's been down in Florida monitoring Luongo and his on ice workouts since the CBA deal was announced on sunday.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

He's been down in Florida monitoring Luongo and his on ice workouts since the CBA deal was announced on sunday.

Yeah, Tim and Sid were just givin' it to him with the stalker jokes, too funny.

 

[Winreims]

I'm confused as to why Florida needs Luongo... They have Theodore and didn't they re-sign Clemmensen in the summer?

 

[Stats01]

I'm confused as to why Florida needs Luongo... They have Theodore and didn't they re-sign Clemmensen in the summer?

And Markstrom. Florida is just mentioned because that's Luongo's first choice, from all indications they're not even interested in him LOL.

 

[namttebih]

Bozak doesn't fit in with the Nucks, IMO...they need some grit in their bottom 6 seeing that their top 6 is pretty soft. Kadri can maybe fit the bill...but he hasn't had much experience at C in the NHL.....and If the Panthers are offering Weiss...this is a no brainer for Gillis.

The Panthers won't be offering Weiss IMO. Other than Huberdeau they really don't have anyone else at C.

I think that Burke is playing from a position of strength here and won't need to move Kadri. With Lou in net we might be good enough to squeek into a playoff spot and a top pick. That leaves us with count 'em...0 high end forward prospects.

Mckenzie did the year profile on Vancouver this morning and said that the obvious need for a center right now with Kesler out and no real number 3C. The only real need on D would be a big veteran defenceman. Considering it might be nice to send some salary back, how about;

Bozak, Komisarek and a pick.

I know Gillis (and the Van fans) wants more but I don't think that there are that many suiters out there.

As Ricky would say "it's supply and command"