Tim Stutzle vs Auston Matthews Contracts Included

[MCR74]

No way, this poll needs to live on

I think people are changing their votes now that the season has started and the contract hype has died down, and Matthews has 13 goals in the first 12 games.

This poll is such a good example of how fans obsess over the cap.

Pretty sure Matthews took this personally. As he should

Exactly. If it was the other way around, nobody would be asking for this thread to be locked.

 

[Strangle]

Strangle, sometimes the appropriate thing to do is stop digging..

Just wondering, when is that time?

 

[The90]

What if that poll was made by an Oilers fan? And what kind of impact would that have on your argument?

He’s been awful quite lately, though. Was awful loud coming into the season. Wonder why.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Are Sens fans still trying to say Stutzle? LOL

 

[Strangle]

That’s one way of looking at it. But you could also frame it as half (or more) of the cap space needed for another $8m or $10m star, instead of all of the cap space needed for an aggressively mid player.

TIL Matthews is ‘aggressively mid’

 

[MCR74]

Strangle, sometimes the appropriate thing to do is stop digging..

Doesn't prevent other teams' fans from doing it.

He’s been awful quite lately, though. Was awful loud coming into the season. Wonder why.

A quick glance at the standings may provide an answer.

 

[Xspyrit]

He’s been awful quite lately, though. Was awful loud coming into the season. Wonder why.

Well, I have very little knowledge of who is who on the main boards, I am looking at the content posted. That said, looking at which team's fan made a thread before calling out another fanbase would be the reasonable thing to do.

Are Sens fans still trying to say Stutzle? LOL

What has changed? 10-12 games?

Matthews has a 1.5 PPG, Stutzle has a 1.1 PPG

Stutzle makes $8,350,000, Matthews makes $11,640,250 (before a 1.61 AAV raise next season)

Matthews makes roughly 40% more and has roughly been producing 40% more this season...

Understanding the basic parameters of a thread is not the easiest task for some it seems based on this thread

Oh and let's not forget that Tim Stuzle is 21 y/o right now...

 

[Strangle]

ahh i got the age wrong, silly me!

the point was though that Jack Hughes outproduced all of Matthews playoff runs in his first season; so theres no reason to think Stuetzle cant either!

both are very high-end players still a few years away from their primes and Matthews didnt hit 60 goals until he was 24!

Don’t forget Matthews phenomenal goal scoring covid season.

That was 60 goal pace.

And before anyone gets any ideas about shitting on ‘pace’ in the covid shortened seasons, take a moment to think about why you argue for era adjusted stats. Before you make an argument about Matthews goal scoring pace during covid, think about why you support phantom goals when they didn’t happen when you’re arguing to era adjust stats, think about why you take goals that were actually scored away from the players who actually scored them. Think about that before you say ‘pace’ isn’t relevant in the covid shortened seasons.

 

[Voight]

At this point Stutzles playoff stats are still going to be 0 across the board

 

[tsujimoto74]

TIL Matthews is ‘aggressively mid’

You wayyyy misread my comment. I was responding to someone talking about what kind of player you could add with the extra ~$5m Stutzle saved you over Matthews.

 

[MCR74]

At this point Stutzles playoff stats are still going to be

But consider the overall savings!

 

[Strangle]

You wayyyy misread my comment. I was responding to someone talking about what kind of player you could add with the extra ~$5m Stutzle saved you over Matthews.

Okay, fair enough!

 

[KevinRedkey]

No way, this poll needs to live on

I think people are changing their votes now that the season has started and the contract hype has died down, and Matthews has 13 goals in the first 12 games.

This poll is such a good example of how fans obsess over the cap.

Pretty sure Matthews took this personally. As he should

The only reason I suggested closing the thread is because most of the discussion had nothing to do with Matthews or Stutzle anymore. That has now changed since I said that, and it's back on track.

 

[Strangle]

The only reason I suggested closing the thread is because most of the discussion had nothing to do with Matthews or Stutzle anymore. That has now changed since I said that, and it's back on track.

Thanks for helping mod the forum

 

[TheDoldrums]

Matthews makes roughly 40% more and has roughly been producing 40% more this season...

13 goals to 2 goals, lmao at "producing 40% more" like that's a proper way to frame their offensive value

 

[wetcoast]

Not a reach at all. If Toronto would realize the salary cap exists, they may have won a 14th Cup by now.



If there's a marginal difference in play quality but a major difference in cap, they're getting pushed down the list.

Not very likely because in a total redraft there isn't any money for FA everyone gets drafted so the idea is to get the best players, especially in the first round.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

13 goals to 2 goals, lmao at "producing 40% more" like that's a proper way to frame their offensive value

It's been 10 and 12 games for Stutzle and Matthews respectively. One guy is shooting 23% while the other is shooting 6%. I'd be willing to bet those numbers converge over the course of the rest of the year.

Let's broaden the sample to the start of last year:

88gp 41g 101p
86gp 53g 103p

Not a huge difference, especially when you consider who sets up the majority of Matthews' goals.

Not very likely because in a total redraft there isn't any money for FA everyone gets drafted so the idea is to get the best players, especially in the first round.

If there is a cap in a redraft, you'd definitely want to get value for early picks, so as not to constrain yourself in the middle rounds.

 

[TheDoldrums]

It's been 10 and 12 games for Stutzle and Matthews respectively. One guy is shooting 23% while the other is shooting 6%. I'd be willing to bet those numbers converge over the course of the rest of the year.

Let's broaden the sample to the start of last year:

88gp 41g 101p
86gp 53g 103p

Not a huge difference, especially when you consider who sets up the majority of Matthews' goals.


If there is a cap in a redraft, you'd definitely want to get value for early picks, so as not to constrain yourself in the middle rounds.

Yes if you "broaden the sample size" to make the vast majority of the sample Matthews down year when he was hurt, the numbers do look closer. But it seems like this year will be a lot closer to his 2nd and 1st place Hart seasons.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yes if you "broaden the sample size" to make the vast majority of the sample Matthews down year when he was hurt, the numbers do look closer. But it seems like this year will be a lot closer to his 2nd and 1st place Hart seasons.

Yeah but think about the cap savings, they’re giving Ottawa such a well rounded team with a ton of cap flexibility right now. If Stutzle made Matthews money they might be in a situation where they can’t afford to re-sign their RFAs or have to run a career backup as their stater to yet another mid-20s finish.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes if you "broaden the sample size" to make the vast majority of the sample Matthews down year when he was hurt, the numbers do look closer. But it seems like this year will be a lot closer to his 2nd and 1st place Hart seasons.

Yeah he's been awesome this year, but he's also been running pretty hot while Stutzle has been running cold.

Look at their 5v5 numbers:

Stutzle
1 goal vs 2.33 ixG (-1.33)
9 GF vs 7.58 xGF (+1.42)
8.91 on ice sh%

Matthews
7 goals vs 3.65 ixG (+3.35)
13 GF vs 8.38 xGF (+4.62)
13.83 on ice sh%

And in all situations

Stutzle
2 goal vs 3.97 ixG (-1.97)
16 GF vs 17.63 xGF (-1.63)
10.0 on ice sh%

Matthews
13 goals vs 7.4 ixG (+5.6)
25 GF vs 19.13 xGF (+5.87)
14.37 on ice sh%

I would expect Matthews to have a higher 5v5 on ice sh%, but their career averages suggest the gap should be ~1.5-2.0 percentage points, not 4. Matthews is outperforming his career avg oish% of 10.5% by 32%, while Stutzle's oish% is only 3% higher than his career average of 8.61%.

If they continue to play at the levels we've seen, I'd expect Matthews to outpace Stutzle by 10-15 goals and roughly the same amount of points.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Personally, I enjoy both. It's much sweeter making the dance than it is sitting on the outside trashing those who go in Maybe this year you will get to enjoy that...maybe.

Are we talking about hockey or tennis? Last time I checked, the Sens were in a rebuild (not a great one) and the Leafs were in a win now cycle. Its a team game and one player cannot make a playoff team.

That being said, when rating the players Stutzle has a neutral or N/A playoff record and Matthews has a negative one.

 

[The90]

It's been 10 and 12 games for Stutzle and Matthews respectively. One guy is shooting 23% while the other is shooting 6%. I'd be willing to bet those numbers converge over the course of the rest of the year.

Let's broaden the sample to the start of last year:

88gp 41g 101p
86gp 53g 103p

Not a huge difference, especially when you consider who sets up the majority of Matthews' goals.


If there is a cap in a redraft, you'd definitely want to get value for early picks, so as not to constrain yourself in the middle rounds.

What an argument.

Why stop moving the goal posts at 1 year though! Why not 2? 3? Their entire careers! Just think of how much we can misconstrue the numbers!

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What an argument.

Why stop moving the goal posts at 1 year though! Why not 2? 3? Their entire careers! Just think of how much we can misconstrue the numbers!

Yeah, because the player Stutzle was as a teenager has tons of relevance in the discussion about his current value...

 

[The90]

Yeah, because the player Stutzle was as a teenager has tons of relevance in the discussion about his current value...

About the same relevance of taking a career low vs career high comparison. If you can use Stutzle’s career high, why not include the previous 82 that includes Matthews’? Don’t answer that, we know the answer already.

 

[wetcoast]

It's been 10 and 12 games for Stutzle and Matthews respectively. One guy is shooting 23% while the other is shooting 6%. I'd be willing to bet those numbers converge over the course of the rest of the year.

Let's broaden the sample to the start of last year:

88gp 41g 101p
86gp 53g 103p

Not a huge difference, especially when you consider who sets up the majority of Matthews' goals.


If there is a cap in a redraft, you'd definitely want to get value for early picks, so as not to constrain yourself in the middle rounds.

All thread we have heard how Stutzle is going to eclipse or somehow is as good as AM (becasue AM had an off year) based stricytly on counting stats.

AM is the superior player and by quite a bit and I love Stutzle.

Most of the push of this thread is for obvious non hockey reasons.

As for the inference of Marner you should and do know better than that.