Player Discussion Tim Stützle - L̶W̶/C - Part V

[GCK]

The order like I’ve previously discussed on here before the draft was ;

1. Laf
2. Timmy
3. Byfield
4. Sanderson
5. Raymond

I don’t know for sure but I’ve discussed it with another poster who also has info but we sorta think that Jack Quinn may have been #6

I don’t know the exact order but I do know they absolutely loved Raymond and Quinn.

 

[JimmySpaetzle]

Don't see Timmy commanding much more than he already will on an 8 year contract next summer vs in 2025, so I'm all for him getting a bridge to try and get us a couple years of 2-3M savings to get another top 4 D piece hopefully by the time our dead cap and cap increase comes.

2 years bridge in 2023? Assuming he scores 60-70 points, probably gets 6.5M AAV.
8 years in 2023? Cap hit likely around 8.5M assuming similar output of 60-70 points this coming season.
8 years in 2025? Assuming he's a 70-80 pt player at least once, probs lt 9.5-10M per year.

Except in 2025 we have 4.5M from Zaitsev off the books, 5M from dead cap, 4.5M from Holden + Harmonic off the books. 4-5M in new salary cap increase. That's Stutzle and a top 4 RD money right there and some.

Say we're lucky and on his bridge he never tops 70 points because everyone needs time to develop and mature plus adjust to the league? Major win if we don't have to sign him to an 10M contract and have bargained for a 6-7M AAV for two years where he developed rather than going the Chabot Brady route.

But I get that everyone here sees Stutzle in that Tavares/MacKinnon tier of elite franchise players that produce PPG in their D+4 season, where those guys were locked quick at bargain contracts.

Signing him on a bridge to save 2-3M for a year or two is so incredibly short sighted

 

[Micklebot]

Signing him on a bridge to save 2-3M for a year or two is so incredibly short sighted

If you think it would be incredibly short sighted on the teams part to sign a bridge, then it would likely be equally short sighted from his perspective to sign an 8 yr deal.

There's always going to be a balance of risk to benefit with both strategies. Odd are we won't get a sweetheart deal like the MacKinnon contract unless there's some risk he won't become the superstar we all hope for. The more risk, the more a bridge deal becomes appealing.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Signing him on a bridge to save 2-3M for a year or two is so incredibly short sighted

Not really short sighted. There's a lot of variables to consider like internal budgeting, cap ceiling (growth vs. stagnation), expiring contracts, etc.

There's certainly a discussion to be had about giving him 9.5x8 + (potentially) 13x8 vs. 6x3 + 11x8. We'd be buying the 11 best years of his career for a total of $106M, at $9.63M AAV vs. $115M, at $10.45M AAV. The cap should stagnate long enough for the 3 year deal to expire with a relatively flat cap (maybe up $3-$4M during that time period) vs. signing him to 8 years and in 2030 the cap is over $100M.

There's a lot of hypotheticals to consider but everything we've heard about the cap indicates relative stagnation in the short term. It might actually make more sense to bridge for a myriad of reasons and then pay him big after that contract.

 

[Ice-Tray]

In my opinion We’ll lock him up long term like the rest of the core.

It’s essential for the small market team psyche, and it’s important for the guys in the room to see continuity and commitment from both player and team.

While everyone is so close and building something seemingly special, the team needs to capitalize on contract term. If Stu’s ask is fair I don’t see much of an issue getting this done, given what we’ve seen from the other core deals.

 

[operasen]

We are now starting to be comparable to some the Jacques Martin coached teams where players stayed around and were identifiable as a part of the success stories. Some of those teams were top of the league good. It was the compliment to the core that let them down, especially to the playoff Leafs. We remember.
This group is also building a strong identity and I believe the complimentary group to the core are stronger. We are still a couple of players away and I think they may even be in the system (Pinto, Grieg, Ostapchuk, Sanderson, Kleven, JBD, Thomson, etc). I think this group has tremendous potential to grow into an elite team. Stutzle/Norris/Pinto/Kastelic/Ostapchuk is rich down the middle.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I love Timmy as much as the next fan but you certainly have high expectations given Alfie is a HOF

Was told the same thing when I similarly gushed over Karlsson early on.

Stutzle is going to be a phenom.

 

[Bevans]

I love Timmy as much as the next fan but you certainly have high expectations given Alfie is a HOF

Someone from his draft class will likely eventually end up in the hall of fame. So far, he's in the lead.

 

[Masked]

I love Timmy as much as the next fan but you certainly have high expectations given Alfie is a HOF

As well as Hossa and Spezza might join them

Assen na yo!

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Was told the same thing when I similarly gushed over Karlsson early on.

Stutzle is going to be a phenom.

I echo this 1000%.

From my first early viewings of Tim, I wanted him on this team at #3 overall and could tell he's going to eventually be a top 10 player in the league. He has the skill, drive/determination, humility and has everything you'd want in a superstar player. His attitude and upbringing just gives me even more confidence that he will reach his potential.

 

[Samsquanch]

Was told the same thing when I similarly gushed over Karlsson early on.

Stutzle is going to be a phenom.

Did you say the same things about Regin and Lehner? Hmmmmm

 

[DJB]

Was told the same thing when I similarly gushed over Karlsson early on.

Stutzle is going to be a phenom.

Nothing wrong with it. You know as well as I do how much i gushed over both Tim and EK in their draft years.

Studs

 

[Psycroptic86]

Stu continues his trajectory on potential he will get that 9-10 mill aav over 8 years type of deal. Not a fan of bridge type deals for superstars, so I hope he gets a long term contract.

 

[Sweatred]

In my opinion We’ll lock him up long term like the rest of the core.

It’s essential for the small market team psyche, and it’s important for the guys in the room to see continuity and commitment from both player and team.

While everyone is so close and building something seemingly special, the team needs to capitalize on contract term. If Stu’s ask is fair I don’t see much of an issue getting this done, given what we’ve seen from the other core deals.

These guys are showing they are motivated to sign here for their first shot at multi generational financial security - Timmy isn’t going to risk a blown out knee playing for $5 million for 2 years. He’s going to want to secure his $60+ million and figure out the next tier of wealth down the road.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Did you say the same things about Regin and Lehner? Hmmmmm

Regin I was wrong on. I had a soft spot for him because I kinda knew him personally. Injuries derailed him. I used to video game with Lehner when he was in Bingo, lol. Him and Andre Petersson. Lehner is a vezina capable goalie and If not for his mental health struggles, is a consistent top 5 goalie in the league.

 

[bert]

Stu continues his trajectory on potential he will get that 9-10 mill aav over 8 years type of deal. Not a fan of bridge type deals for superstars, so I hope he gets a long term contract.

Which is why they should be locking him up now and saying Brady is the teams internal cap. Use the Jack Hughes contract, offer 8 x 8.1

 

[Psycroptic86]

Which is why they should be locking him up now and saying Brady is the teams internal cap. Use the Jack Hughes contract, offer 8 x 8.1

I really hope that happens as well.

 

[Sweatred]

Which is why they should be locking him up now and saying Brady is the teams internal cap. Use the Jack Hughes contract, offer 8 x 8.1

They don’t even have $7 million + in cap space or the internal budget to do that and that’s before they sign Brann and deal with Formy let alone improve the D.

 

[Bileur]

They don’t even have $7 million + in cap space or the internal budget to do that and that’s before they sign Brann and deal with Formy let alone improve the D.

The extension would only kick in next season at which point Talbot (3.6), Hamonic (3), Watson (1.5), and Holden (1.3) all come off the books.

You’d need to sign minimum salary guys to replace them but that’s still decent even before moving Zaitsev.

Zub and Debrincat extensions also cut into that but Stutzle has to be the priority.

 

[Micklebot]

The extension would only kick in next season at which point Talbot (3.6), Hamonic (3), Watson (1.5), and Holden (1.3) all come off the books.

You’d need to sign minimum salary guys to replace them but that’s still decent even before moving Zaitsev.

Zub and Debrincat extensions also cut into that but Stutzle has to be the priority.

Got to re-sign DeBrincat though...

 

[DylanSensFan]

Did you say the same things about Regin and Lehner? Hmmmmm

Lehner isn't too far off. Aside from being slightly crazy and somewhat injury laden, he is a top end goalie.

 

[aragorn]

Got to re-sign DeBrincat though...

I don't think so, he would be the first guy I would move out if they run into any money issues & it might take someone like that to return a top pairing RD. IMO he is the easiest to replace, maybe not his overall production, but close enough with a cheaper contract.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Did you say the same things about Regin and Lehner? Hmmmmm

I mean Lehner turned into a very valuable NHL goalie. Jennings trophies on two seperate teams. 360+ NHL games with a save percentage around .915.

 

[Samsquanch]

Lehner isn't too far off. Aside from being slightly crazy and somewhat injury laden, he is a top end goalie.

I mean Lehner turned into a very valuable NHL goalie. Jennings trophies on two seperate teams. 360+ NHL games with a save percentage around .915.

I was kidding but the reality is that we traded away Lehner for a 2015 1st round pick - and it was considered highway robbery at the time. Still is when you look at how good that draft was, and for how bad Lehner was in Buffalo (where he hit rock bottom).

Sucks that we messed up the pick, and yeah Lehner manager to make a solid comeback. But Im not ready to call RKL the messiah if his namesakes careers for us is what we have to work with hahaha. Sorry RKL and serious props for never changing your handle either. I respect your choice lol.

Having said that, Timmy is a buck wild superstar in training. Kids going to be unstoppable with the right support around him.

 

[CornerStone61]

I don't think so, he would be the first guy I would move out if they run into any money issues & it might take someone like that to return a top pairing RD. IMO he is the easiest to replace, maybe not his overall production, but close enough with a cheaper contract.

You've said this a few times now and honestly it makes no sense. A potential 40-50 goal scorer is not the easiest player to replace, that's asinine. Do you have a bias against him because of his size even though he's shown to be a very physical player? Honest question, because I'm struggling to think of another reason you'd want to replace what could be one piece of a top line for us.