This Pittsburgh Penguins Act is Getting Old

[WarriorofTime]

Min. 350 Powerplay minutes played, NHL defensemen Powerplay Points per 60, Erik Karlsson cumulative, rolling rank amongst qualifiers:
24/78 since 2018-19
34/67 since 2019-20
36/60 since 2020-21
28/52 since 2021-22
20/31 since 2022-23
(filtered down to 200 powerplay minutes played) 17/18 in 2023-24

One thing to keep in mind for powerplay discussion, Karlsson really isn't a great powerplay defensemen anymore. Even in his norris season last year, he was more so ok/pretty good and did most of his damage at even strength (in his trademark rover style that he flourishes best in).

 

[WarriorofTime]

Another dumb Subban take...But, I would love to know how Crosby would do on a top NHL team, if he traded spots with Miller in Vancouver, Kucherov in Tampa, Pasta in Boston, Panarin in New York, Rantanen in Colorado, would he have the same point totals as them? I think yes. So to me he would be right behind McDavid and MacKinnon.

Kucherov has a 41 point lead over his next closest teammate (who has played one more game than him). Panarin has a 30 point lead over his next closest teammate (who has played the same number of games). Pastrnak has a 35 point lead over his next closest teammate (who has played the same number of games as him). For comparison, Bryan Rust (5th on the Penguins in scoring) is 28 points behind Crosby with 20 fewer games played.

Either you're absurdly overrated present-day Crosby without any reasonable basis to conclude he'd go from 1.01 PPG to to 1.38/1.39 (Panarin and Pastrnak), all the way up to 1.73! (Kucherov), or generally unaware of the situation of these other eastern conference teams. I'd say your take is only slightly less than Subban's if he has Crosby still number 1 and you have him still number 3.

 

[karltonian]

Min. 350 Powerplay minutes played, NHL defensemen Powerplay Points per 60, Erik Karlsson cumulative, rolling rank amongst qualifiers:
24/78 since 2018-19
34/67 since 2019-20
36/60 since 2020-21
28/52 since 2021-22
20/31 since 2022-23
(filtered down to 200 powerplay minutes played) 17/18 in 2023-24

One thing to keep in mind for powerplay discussion, Karlsson really isn't a great powerplay defensemen anymore. Even in his norris season last year, he was more so ok/pretty good and did most of his damage at even strength (in his trademark rover style that he flourishes best in).

xGF/60 is better here since he has been playing on some dreadful PP teams

10/52 since 2021-22
6/31 since 2022-23
2/18 in 2023-24 (200 min)

So yeah. He's actually become dominant on the PP in terms of quarterbacking. He has had absolute shit personnel (SJ) and coaching (PIT) to work with though.

 

[wetcoast]

xGF/60 is better here since he has been playing on some dreadful PP teams

10/52 since 2021-22
6/31 since 2022-23
2/18 in 2023-24 (200 min)

So yeah. He's actually become dominant on the PP in terms of quarterbacking. He has had absolute shit personnel (SJ) and coaching (PIT) to work with though.

This is getting old, EK65 adjusted poorly when he was first in San Jose and the difference for the most part in the Pittsburgh PP is the addition of EK65.

At some point one has to look at the obvious right?

I'm not saying he is the only reason but seriously people's bias shows right through here on EK65 t times when there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Also having watched him play in around 10 or so full games he lacks urgency and often makes unforced errors, both at ES and on the PP which would be fine if he was a young rookie but as a veteran Dman he is a bit of an adventure out there.

 

[karltonian]

This is getting old, EK65 adjusted poorly when he was first in San Jose and the difference for the most part in the Pittsburgh PP is the addition of EK65.

At some point one has to look at the obvious right?

I'm not saying he is the only reason but seriously people's bias shows right through here on EK65 t times when there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Also having watched him play in around 10 or so full games he lacks urgency and often makes unforced errors, both at ES and on the PP which would be fine if he was a young rookie but as a veteran Dman he is a bit of an adventure out there.

Lol foh, he was every bit as good as expected in making the WCF before he got injured. Being badly injured and having to basically reinvent your game while the team collapses around you is not "adjusting poorly." After he was healed and adjusted to his injury, he put up a historic Norris season with a horrific team.

He has not been far off of that form this year, but Pitt's coaching, which everyone agrees is a problem, cannot figure out how to use that to their advantage.

 

[coooldude]

This is getting old, EK65 adjusted poorly when he was first in San Jose and the difference for the most part in the Pittsburgh PP is the addition of EK65.

At some point one has to look at the obvious right?

I'm not saying he is the only reason but seriously people's bias shows right through here on EK65 t times when there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Also having watched him play in around 10 or so full games he lacks urgency and often makes unforced errors, both at ES and on the PP which would be fine if he was a young rookie but as a veteran Dman he is a bit of an adventure out there.

I don't get it. Not a Pens or Karlsson fan, but the Pens were 23rd last year on PP in xGF% and they're 19th this year, according to Natural Stat Trick for all PP formats. They were 23rd in xGF% on PP in 2021-22. So at worst, they're staying the same, and at best they're slightly better.

I agree Karlsson looks like and often does make obvious mistakes on D or turnovers at the blue line, but the numbers show that he's still an elite offensive producer and kind of middle of the road / mediocre at D.

The loved/hated Athletic model, which I think is somewhat useful... although I think this is all strengths.

 

[rielledup]

Another dumb Subban take...But, I would love to know how Crosby would do on a top NHL team, if he traded spots with Miller in Vancouver, Kucherov in Tampa, Pasta in Boston, Panarin in New York, Rantanen in Colorado, would he have the same point totals as them? I think yes. So to me he would be right behind McDavid and

There's no way Crosbys ppg would go up that much simply by switching teams. You think he would go from a 90 pt projection ( being charitable as that's what he was on before slump and the pens giving up) to a 140 projection just from being on a better team? That's insane. Guentzel was around the same ppg playing on the same team.

 

[BallardEra]

"After a massive win over the Detroit Red Wings, the Penguins saw their odds of making the postseason leapfrog. Heading into the Sunday night matchup, moneypuck.com gave the Penguins a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs. Following the 6-3 win, the Penguins’ odds jumped to 11.2%."

 

[SEALBound]

"After a massive win over the Detroit Red Wings, the Penguins saw their odds of making the postseason leapfrog. Heading into the Sunday night matchup, moneypuck.com gave the Penguins a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs. Following the 6-3 win, the Penguins’ odds jumped to 11.2%."

"It's not that we are good, it's just that everyone else really sucks. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk"

 

[heysmilinstrange]

If the Penguins make the playoffs this season, I'm going to treat it like a 6th Cup ring.

 

[BallardEra]

3 year deal this summer with the Pens that takes him to age 40 season?:

Report: Dubas wants to see Crosby finish career with Penguins

With one year left remaining on his contract and the Penguins' dominance in the East waning, now would naturally be the time to wonder if Crosby will enter the free market in search of one last championship to add to his portfolio.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[BallardEra]

Jarry looked so bad tonight.

 

[66-30-33]

Jarry looked so bad tonight.

He's always bad once the ASG passes. He was awesome before then and a main reason why we were not at the bottom of the standings for a good chunk of the year (same with Ned), but once the ASG comes and goes so does he. Dude needs to see a sports psychologist or something.

 

[BallardEra]

He's always bad once the ASG passes. He was awesome before then and a main reason why we were not at the bottom of the standings for a good chunk of the year (same with Ned), but once the ASG comes and goes so does he. Dude needs to see a sports psychologist or something.

Also looks like Sid and Malkin have checked out too.

Crosby has 1 goal in his last 14 games and Malkin has 5 in his last 35.

Insane that Sullivan starts a new 3 year deal next season.

 

[SomeDude]

He's always bad once the ASG passes. He was awesome before then and a main reason why we were not at the bottom of the standings for a good chunk of the year (same with Ned), but once the ASG comes and goes so does he. Dude needs to see a sports psychologist or something.

I think the moron that signed him to a 5 year deal is that one that needs the mental professional. Jarry has proven what he is time after time. Dubas handcuffed the organization to him because he's an awful GM.

 

[Gurglesons]

Jarry looked so bad tonight.

That's not just a tonight thing. That contract was atrocious.

Dubas has been such a failure since coming here as I feared.

It's wild that he basically has a make or break summer this season and he's already burned through all his good will with this fan base.

 

[66-30-33]

Also looks like Sid and Malkin have checked out too.

Crosby has 1 goal in his last 14 games and Malkin has 5 in his last 35.

Insane that Sullivan starts a new 3 year deal next season.

3 more years watching a Sullivan coached team. I thought FSG was a winning organisation? not in hockey.

 

[reino]

Jarry would be pretty decent journeyman goalie, but you can't count on him being franchise goalie at all. Bigger the game is, smaller Jarry is.

 

[SomeDude]

It's wild that he basically has a make or break summer this season

With the fan base, sure, but there is zero effing way FSG takes less than a decade to admit they were wrong about Dubas after they courted him like a 16 year old boy trying to get a prom date for a month. They still can't even admit Sullivan has to go.

 

[Calderon]

Is there any confirmed info on the Crosby deal that didn't end up happening?

-Did he want out but there was no deal good enough to be made?
-Did he want out but the Pens declined the wish?
-Did he want to stay but doesn't like the deals that were made?
-Is there another scenario I didn't cover?

The guy is unhappy like never before but should've had the pull to make a deal happen, even a rental.

 

[Peasy]

Its honestly crazy there were people out there willing to give Dubas the world based on his track record. Hes an extremely good talker and will tell you exactly what you want to hear though, I'll give him that much credit. But this guy doesnt understand how to build a competitive hockey team at all. Most of his Pitts moves are already looking like blunders. Hes learning quickly how hard it is to build a team without having the best active goal scorer and two superstar wingers in their primes.

 

[BallardEra]

Is there any confirmed info on the Crosby deal that didn't end up happening?

-Did he want out but there was no deal good enough to be made?
-Did he want out but the Pens declined the wish?
-Did he want to stay but doesn't like the deals that were made?
-Is there another scenario I didn't cover?

The guy is unhappy like never before but should've had the pull to make a deal happen, even a rental.

He will sign a 3 year extension this summer with the Pens.

 

[andora]

Its honestly crazy there were people out there willing to give Dubas the world based on his track record. Hes an extremely good talker and will tell you exactly what you want to hear though, I'll give him that much credit. But this guy doesnt understand how to build a competitive hockey team at all. Most of his Pitts moves are already looking like blunders. Hes learning quickly how hard it is to build a team without having the best active goal scorer and two superstar wingers in their primes.

Well to be fair he still f***ed that up

 

[66-30-33]

We had a 4-0 lead at 1 point before losing.

 

[dalewood12]

I can't tell you the number of times I've seen Sid carry the team for the first half of the game, only for the rest of the players to sit back and go "Don't worry, Sid's got it," and then absolutely embarrass themselves for the remainder of the game.