Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid: Flyers Rumors & Media Mentions

[Beef Invictus]

When’s the last time the Flyers heralded scouts found something exciting, a real star level guy outside of a gimme pick.

Claude Giroux? That’s 2006.

TK is a nice player but this is overrating their own bc it’s the best they have.

I’ll never be convinced this strategy will work. It’s the same old half ass retool nonsense, except they haven’t chased anyone in FA yet. Yet.

They are petrified of dealing anyone of real value, unless the player presents as a problem.

Giroux was their backup pick.

Worked out better than Sanguinetti

 

[FlyerNutter]

Giroux was their backup pick.

Worked out better than Sanguinetti

TDA. Risto. MacDonald. Weise. Sanheim (near trade). Hayes. Drysdale. Deslauries.

Hakstol. Vigneault. Moving Bobrovsky. LeCavalier. Ellis.

That’s top of my head.

But yes. They are going to magically make smarter decisions because Pippin got promoted from secretary GM, and everyone else remains until they hit the grave, or a wheelchair.

Hell they didn’t even have the balls to fire Hanrahan, or Brown.

 

[Magua]

Plenty of top centers were drafted outside of the top 10.

Jt Miller, Giroux, Kopitar, Tage Thompson, Hintz, Robert Thomas, etc

Obviously it's much harder. But it can be done.

I think this is the list of centers drafted in the last 20 years who were good enough (subjectively) to be a contending 1C:

McDavid (1), MacKinnon (1), Matthews (1), Crosby (1), Hughes (1), Stamkos (1), Bedard (1), Hischier (1), Tavares (1), Eichel (2), Malkin (2), Barkov (2), Draisaitl (3), Stutzle (3), Backstrom (4), Pettersson (5), Zibanejad (6), Scheifele (7), Couturier (8), Kopitar (11), Larkin (15), Barzal (16), Thomas (20), Ek (20), Giroux (22), Thompson (26), ROR (33), Aho (35), Hintz (49), Point (79)​

It's hard. JT Miller really isn't a center; Kopitar was ranked 3rd by Columbus and passed on for Brule because the GM didn't want to draft a Slovenian over a Canadian; I personally thought Thomas was a top 10 prospect, but admittedly, I was bullish. Finding those 1Cs outside the top 10 (and ~half are top 5) usually amounts to archaic scouting, anomalous development arcs, historically good drafts, statistical undervaluing, and mostly goddamn luck.

I don't think they NEED Auston Matthews. They're already committed to not getting one (giddy about not paying $12MM actually). I think Couturier-Giroux or Ek-Kaprizov is a championship C-W combo, with a deep team. But even the low end 1Cs are hard to find too, and obviously you need a superstar wing. Couturier will be turning 34 when Michkov starts his career. The Flyers only real path is to trade every fungible depth guy not bolted to the floor -- they're reluctant to do so -- for picks and pray they (and not another team) hit on that once every 2-3 year player. Doing so while the current core, including development time, approaches 30+.

 

[VladDrag]

I think this is the list of centers drafted in the last 20 years who were good enough (subjectively) to be a contending 1C:

McDavid (1), MacKinnon (1), Matthews (1), Crosby (1), Hughes (1), Stamkos (1), Bedard (1), Hischier (1), Tavares (1), Eichel (2), Malkin (2), Barkov (2), Draisaitl (3), Stutzle (3), Backstrom (4), Pettersson (5), Zibanejad (6), Scheifele (7), Couturier (8), Kopitar (11), Larkin (15), Barzal (16), Thomas (20), Ek (20), Giroux (22), Thompson (26), ROR (33), Aho (35), Hintz (49), Point (79)​

It's hard. JT Miller really isn't a center; Kopitar was ranked 3rd by Columbus and passed on for Brule because the GM didn't want to draft a Slovenian over a Canadian; I personally thought Thomas was a top 10 prospect, but admittedly, I was bullish. Finding those 1Cs outside the top 10 (and ~half are top 5) usually amounts to archaic scouting, anomalous development arcs, historically good drafts, statistical undervaluing, and mostly goddamn luck.

I don't think they NEED Auston Matthews. They're already committed to not getting one (giddy about not paying $12MM actually). I think Couturier-Giroux or Ek-Kaprizov is a championship C-W combo, with a deep team. But even the low end 1Cs are hard to find too, and obviously you need a superstar wing. Couturier will be turning 34 when Michkov starts his career. The Flyers only real path is to trade every fungible depth guy not bolted to the floor -- they're reluctant to do so -- for picks and pray they (and not another team) hit on that once every 2-3 year player. Doing so while the current core, including development time, approaches 30+.

This kind of kicks off a thought I've started formulating since about midway last season (I don't think it's a unique thought, but just a conclusion I've come to). I personally believe that you can win through depth, but what makes it difficult is the year to year individual variability.

We've always stated what separates the best players in the world vs the good players vs the okay players is the relative level of consistency in each category. The best players in the world consistently tilt the ice in their teams favor, and convert (typically) their chances into goals at a higher clip. Good players consistently tilt the ice, but not as effectively and do not convert as much, and so on and so forth.

With consistency, there's an inherent variability within individual play. Stated another way, in some seasons Player X will have a better than other seasons. Sometimes you'll have a year like the Flyers are having right now, where all of their best players will be good, sometimes you have a down year and players will not be as good. Sometimes it will be middling. One way to limit this variability to draft an elite talent, but that is admittedly hard.

If you're process (and it seems to be the Flyers believe this) is build a team through the aggregate as opposed to possessing elite talent, the variability makes developing a perennial championship-caliber team more difficult, but it can be done. However in this scenario, every move that is made (from signings/trades/coaching/drafting) must be made with heavy internal scrutiny because one move can vastly change layout of the team. The philosophies of the team have to be congruent with each other. I don't know if I've seen that as of yet with the Flyers.

 

[GKJ]

 

[Danko]

I always thought they were trying to go Byram

 

[GKJ]

I always thought they were trying to go Byram

They may have tried but Barron + 1st was consistent with the reporting.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I'd take that Florida deal all day long over the Colorado deal.

 

[GKJ]

I'd take that Florida deal all day long over the Colorado deal.

You do now, yes, you know what Tippett is, and you did get the extra draft pick for having to wait. And you have a better chance of the pick not being 32nd, although it sounds like a draft where you don’t want to be drafting lower than like 20th.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Wasn’t the frustration around here centred around Denisenko (only 3 GP, 0 points this season, after being claimed off waivers) not being included vs Tippett? I admittedly was one of the people who were aiming for the Russian, because of what was seen as a higher ceiling. Glad to be proven wrong by Cuck on that one.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Wasn’t the frustration around here centred around Denisenko (only 3 GP, 0 points this season, after being claimed off waivers) not being included vs Tippett? I admittedly was one of the people who were aiming for the Russian, because of what was seen as a higher ceiling. Glad to be proven wrong by Cuck on that one.

Think Samoskevich was the reasonable target.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Think Samoskevich was the reasonable target.

What leads you to believe he was offered as part of the deal?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think this is the list of centers drafted in the last 20 years who were good enough (subjectively) to be a contending 1C:

McDavid (1), MacKinnon (1), Matthews (1), Crosby (1), Hughes (1), Stamkos (1), Bedard (1), Hischier (1), Tavares (1), Eichel (2), Malkin (2), Barkov (2), Draisaitl (3), Stutzle (3), Backstrom (4), Pettersson (5), Zibanejad (6), Scheifele (7), Couturier (8), Kopitar (11), Larkin (15), Barzal (16), Thomas (20), Ek (20), Giroux (22), Thompson (26), ROR (33), Aho (35), Hintz (49), Point (79)​

The thing that sticks out to me about this list beyond the draft position is that the guys who were picked later in the 1st round are almost never two-way archetypes. ROR was 15 years ago. Kopitar was almost 20.

And then there's JEE. So there are two currently taken paths to getting a "two-way" Center of that quality away from the very top of the draft in almost 15 years. You can either find one of the best transition and in-zone defenders to ever play or you can give Sean Couturier mono. That feels instructive.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

You do now, yes, you know what Tippett is, and you did get the extra draft pick for having to wait. And you have a better chance of the pick not being 32nd, although it sounds like a draft where you don’t want to be drafting lower than like 20th.

I still would have done FLA deal. I would have to look back but I think I liked getting Tippett in the deal. I'm usually wrong so I am sure someone will find a post of mine saying something like "Damn, we should have targeted someone like Barron from Colorado instead of Tippett" but I am pretty sure I always like the FLA deal. Haha.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Think Samoskevich was the reasonable target.

I had a quick peek at the original thread.
Samo did appear to be the favoured piece. However my point would be that relative to Tippett, most of us clearly preferred Denisenko. Though a few posters like Magua did highlight the shortcomings.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Wasn’t the frustration around here centred around Denisenko (only 3 GP, 0 points this season, after being claimed off waivers) not being included vs Tippett? I admittedly was one of the people who were aiming for the Russian, because of what was seen as a higher ceiling. Glad to be proven wrong by Cuck on that one.

Yeah, a lot of posters here were calling Tippett a bust of a prospect and someone who'd end up on waivers.

 

[FLYguy3911]

What leads you to believe he was offered as part of the deal?

Seravalli told me.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Seravalli told me.

So in other words you have nothing.

 

[FLYguy3911]

So in other words you have nothing.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Boston nabbed Bergeron and Krejci with 2nd rounders in consecutive years and set up themselves up with their top 2 centers for the next 20. Obviously a wild outlier though, would never try to argue otherwise.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Boston nabbed Bergeron and Krejci with 2nd rounders in consecutive years and set up themselves up with their top 2 centers for the next 20. Obviously a wild outlier though, would never try to argue otherwise.

Bingo

 

[LegionOfGloom]

Boston nabbed Bergeron and Krejci with 2nd rounders in consecutive years and set up themselves up with their top 2 centers for the next 20. Obviously a wild outlier though, would never try to argue otherwise.

And yet these outliers are their rebuilding plan. It's the equivalent of someone's financial plan being to win the lottery.

 

[Magua]

The thing that sticks out to me about this list beyond the draft position is that the guys who were picked later in the 1st round are almost never two-way archetypes. ROR was 15 years ago. Kopitar was almost 20.

And then there's JEE. So there are two currently taken paths to getting a "two-way" Center of that quality away from the very top of the draft in almost 15 years. You can either find one of the best transition and in-zone defenders to ever play or you can give Sean Couturier mono. That feels instructive.

Eight 1Cs since 2009 being selected after pick #8, with only 3 selected after the 1st, and 1 selected after the 2nd (and Point was a consensus 1st). Larkin, Barzal, Hintz, Aho, and Point are all 90-99th percentile inn top speed and/or burst (going by Edge data). That's probably the most common denominator. Even Thomas (who I'd also have given the 2-way label at the draft) is a good skater but elite in transition, while being among the handful of best passers in the game.

I'm absolutely in the camp that skating, at least for forwards, is down my list compared to usable hockey skills and short area game -- chasing speed is Pronman shit -- but maybe there's something when *Brett Brown voice* star hunting for centers. We're basically left with Ek (roundabout Selke route) and Thompson (THE unicorn example, who wasn't even really a center at the draft).

Or maybe the real lesson, which people hate to admit, is that it's a total fluke. You don't find these guys; they find you. And you project them more conservatively than they end up and you get to pat yourself on the back afterwards while being sort of right.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I can’t imagine Danny telling Scott Laughton to pack his bags because he’s being traded.

A guy who has give everything he has to this team and city on and off the ice for years now… I could never be a NHL GM.

It will be a sad day if he goes, an even sadder day if it doesn’t bring back a first.

 

[BernieParent]

Yeah, a lot of posters here were calling Tippett a bust of a prospect and someone who'd end up on waivers.

If I didn't post it, I certainly expected him to be.