Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid: Flyers Rumors & Media Mentions

[blackjackmulligan]

I don’t care if they trade him, but Risto is better than dime-a-dozen. I’m sure there are plenty of contenders who’d like to have him on their right side.

Not at 5 million per for 3+ years.

 

[GKJ]

No evidence they see Attard as an NHL guy

 

[deadhead]

This is something I harp on because of how dumb it is.

Waiting is bad unless you are trading a singularly unique and attractive asset that teams think is valuable enough to try to win a bidding war over. Stone or Eichel, in recent memory. Guys who can change a team in the short or long term.

For a regular old deadline rental, simple economics come into play. There are a finite number of teams willing to give up premium assets for a rental. Once the top name is off the board, there are fewer teams in the running and thus fewer assets available, meaning the price goes down, not up.

Your best bet is to try to set the market and get your trade off early, not wait around and hope some GM wakes up one morning and goes "well, we weren't a buyer yesterday, but today I think we are one Sean Walker away from the Finals!" It doesn't work that way.

It takes two to tango. The only way you jump ahead of the line is to sell at a discount.

You have to be realistic, if you have a good idea of the market, you know when an offer is good enough, and you don't wait and hope for someone to overpay. But you also have a reservation price, the lowest price that makes the deal worth making. That includes both the value to the team given they're on the cusp of the playoffs, and the opportunity cost of potentially making a better deal.

Example, for the Flyers, keeping Seeler and letting him walk is probably worth a 5th rd pick, but if someone offers a 3rd, bye. Offer me a 2nd, and I'll throw in Lycksell as a consolation prize.

Farabee, 2nd in the NHL in pp/60 (5x5) was a #14 pick.

Why would you trade a 1st line forward for a package that will probably be a late 1st, a 2nd and a B+ prospect who might be a top 6 forward if you're lucky?

Now if someone offers me an under 25 year old center with 1C upside . . .

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It takes two to tango. The only way you jump ahead of the line is to sell at a discount.

You have to be realistic, if you have a good idea of the market, you know when an offer is good enough, and you don't wait and hope for someone to overpay. But you also have a reservation price, the lowest price that makes the deal worth making. That includes both the value to the team given they're on the cusp of the playoffs, and the opportunity cost of potentially making a better deal.

Example, for the Flyers, keeping Seeler and letting him walk is probably worth a 5th rd pick, but if someone offers a 3rd, bye. Offer me a 2nd, and I'll throw in Lycksell as a consolation prize.

That will definitely push the deal over the top. Maybe add Attard as well.

You take what you can get for Seeler. Then go find the next Seeler this summer if you want. This is how one accumulates assets.

Seeler will not doubt get a 3 year ext from the Flyers if he re-signs. What will the money look like?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The only way you jump ahead of the line is to sell at a discount.

We've handwaved the entire concept of player preference and variance of opinions now. Probably a sign that we've gone a bit too far even if we started from a reasonable thought.

 

[Rich Nixon]

It takes two to tango. The only way you jump ahead of the line is to sell at a discount.

Not really. What you do is you survey the field, find the team that is most desperate from the jump, see if you can push them up a little, and set the market.

The Flames did not sell Lindholm at a discount, even though he was the first big name C off the board (real good player in a thin market, but they still got surplus value). Last season, the first big defender to move was Orlov (+ our friend Hathaway). The Capitals got a terrific return for him 2 weeks before the deadline—1st, 2nd, 3rd and a cap dump.

Hell, the Flyers were the first team to make a big move last summer, dealing Provorov. And they got great value there, too! In-season, though, the player has slightly more value to the acquiring team if they're acquiring him earlier, because they will get more games out of the player prior to the playoffs. But that value will become negligible in a week or so.

There's this thing about concepts like "discount." They're always relative to what's happening in the market. The team that sets the market usually is not selling at a discount, because there is no frame of reference. Likewise, the acquiring GM has no comparables to point to, and can be asked a higher price while all of the potential bidders are still in the market.

These players aren't worth the same thing to different teams. There's no Kelley Blue Book Value on 2nd pairing defensemen. There might be 6 teams that are interested in your guy: a couple of them are REALLY interested and the rest are just willing to kick tires as a backup plan. If the Leafs and the Bruins, say, are the two teams pushing for your player the hardest, and suddenly the Bruins go get some other guy, then the Leafs are just competing against the 4 other teams that see your guy as an alright backup plan and then the price is suddenly way, way lower.

This has been a trend for some time now, actually. How many years in a row have people complained that the deadline itself was a dud and a waste of time? We've reached the point where very few teams are still active on the day itself, because the trend has shifted earlier. The "desperate GMs pay more!!!!" thing is a myth. There are very few Fletcher-level fools in the offices these days.

 

[wankstifier]

How much culture do they need per dollar?

Such a baffling obsession. It’s not like their guys signed to long term contracts have obvious character flaws. Why are they having serious discussions about keeping depth players around who don’t add much more than “character” and “grit”? They can handle leadership questions without allocating any cap. It’ll just take pocket change to stitch a “C” on a jersey.

 

[Curufinwe]

Love Gudas' hardness but he's not close to the player that Risto is.

Did you hit your head on something? Gudas is a much better player than Ristolainen.

Risto has poor defensive results even when used as a #5, very poor ES production, and can't even help on the PP anymore.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Did you hit your head on something? Gudas is a much better player than Ristolainen.

Risto has poor defensive results even when used as a #5, very poor ES production, and can't even help on the PP anymore.

there is only 1 GM in the league that wants Risto..

and oddly hes not found a job since getting fired from here.

which is very odd.

hahahaa..

 

[deadhead]

Not really. What you do is you survey the field, find the team that is most desperate from the jump, see if you can push them up a little, and set the market.

The Flames did not sell Lindholm at a discount, even though he was the first big name C off the board (real good player in a thin market, but they still got surplus value). Last season, the first big defender to move was Orlov (+ our friend Hathaway). The Capitals got a terrific return for him 2 weeks before the deadline—1st, 2nd, 3rd and a cap dump.

Hell, the Flyers were the first team to make a big move last summer, dealing Provorov. And they got great value there, too! In-season, though, the player has slightly more value to the acquiring team if they're acquiring him earlier, because they will get more games out of the player prior to the playoffs. But that value will become negligible in a week or so.

Orlov and Lindholm were "Mercedes," they went off the lot first.
Teams are going to kick the tires on Tanev before Seeler.

Selling in the summer is a completely different proposition than selling at the TDL.

Doesn't mean Briere has to wait until the last minute, but he can't force deals.

I suspect most buyers have a checklist, players they'd love to have, but can't afford, then the players they'd like to have. They're going to check on the price of their love interests first.

Flyers have some useful players to trade, but none are top flight.

 

[Cody Webster]

Did you hit your head on something? Gudas is a much better player than Ristolainen.

Risto has poor defensive results even when used as a #5, very poor ES production, and can't even help on the PP anymore.

He's just a troll that makes a quarterly appearance and pretends to know what he's talking about regarding the Flyers. Either that or it's someone's alt account they forgot to log out of

 

[Rich Nixon]

Orlov and Lindholm were "Mercedes," they went off the lot first.
Teams are going to kick the tires on Tanev before Seeler.

Selling in the summer is a completely different proposition than selling at the TDL.

Doesn't mean Briere has to wait until the last minute, but he can't force deals.

I suspect most buyers have a checklist, players they'd love to have, but can't afford, then the players they'd like to have. They're going to check on the price of their love interests first.

Flyers have some useful players to trade, but none are top flight.

They actually do have one, if they have the balls to do it.

But it's the waiting game that backs you into a corner and causes you to force deals more than anything. I'm thinking about Walker and Laughton primarily here. Good players, not great ones. Seeler is likely more of an afterthought (even if his on-ice impact is equivalent to Walker's). These are guys that have some legitimate value now that will decrease over time.

Their value is independent of bigger names on the market. You aren't comparing your return to Tanev, and the Venn diagram of teams interested in Walker will have a lot of overlap, but it is not going to be a perfect circle (which is where the more/less interested thing comes in). Tanev is the better player and is coveted for different reasons than Walker is, outside of the fact that both are RHD. You set a realistic baseline for what you'll take, you go see if you can get a little more, and you make the move the second that you do.

People aren't suddenly willing to pay more for a 2003 Honda Civic because they can't get their hands on the Benz. They know what it is and what it's worth to them. If you have a 2003 Civic for sale, sell it for the highest price you can get while everyone still has cash in hand. It's real simple stuff.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

This feels like a good time to bring up that Tanev has a 10 team NT list. We assume these guys are willing to go anywhere. We should probably stop doing that.

And of course he’s a completely different archetype from Walker. If your worldview is rigid roles, that should matter quite a bit.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Seeler staying signals the rebuild is over. Mission accomplished! We have everything we need!

 

[Beef Invictus]

What's the rush to dump Risto? His play has been fine this season on the third pair, now we'll get to see him on the second pair with Sanheim.

Given the lack of size and experience on defense, there's no rush to dump Seeler or Risto unless someone makes "an offer you can't refuse." Walker is redundant to some extent, and they're not going to pay him big money, so he's a logical candidate to move at the TDL.

Keeping Risto buys a year or two to see how Bonk and Attard progress, if they are pushing for PT at RHD, Risto will be much easier to move next TDL or summer with only two years left on his deal and the cap rising.

It would be one thing if people were offering a 1st rd pick, but that's far more likely next summer. By summer 2025, the cap will be $8M higher than this season, so that 2x5 won't be that hard to move.

Aren't they rebuilding?

Ah right, no, they already finished! Only took one summer. Incredible work, everyone.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Can't imagine Yandle was used much in the final minute with the Flyers holding a one-goal lead - as Ristolainen was Tuesday night. I don't understand the venom he recieves.

The NHL has a salary cap. Cap efficiency is urgently important.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Love Gudas' hardness but he's not close to the player that Risto is. He's a complimentary but limited piece.

Five million for a defenseman with Ristolainen's skill set in his 11th season is about average.

Ah ok here is the problem, you don't actually have any idea who or what Ristolainen actually is. That is why you do not understand. It makes sense now.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I would take Gudas, plus Ghost, 13 oa, two 2nds, and a 7th over Ristolainen 11 times out of 10. It really shouldn't even be a debate.

That's not to say you absolutely have to keep all those assets (granted Gudas was obviously already long gone by then)... but jesus, not for Rasmus Ristolainen. He wasn't even the best Sabre moved that weekend.

 

[Mayo Masseuse]

It was. AV didn't want Ghost on the team, Flyers were cap strapped due to COVID (every team had planned on a rising cap when giving out contracts the previous 2-3 seasons), and the mandate from the FO was to win now.

It cost more to dump one year of Stralman than two years of Ghost.

Ghost has been a 3rd pair D-man on every good team he's been on since that trade, being 1st pair on Arizona was no different than AMac being first pair on the Islanders when we traded for him.

The real issue was Holmgren refusing to hire a new GM to replace Hextall and reboot the rebuild in the summer of 2019 after Hextall failed. Instead he hired someone to patch the team into the playoffs.

Oh my, the vapors...

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Ah the Flyers way. Sign the career 7th dman to a bloated contract instead of playing younger dmen to see if they don't have any better options in the system.

We know exactly how they think, I’m just fine with going with the lesser of two (or three) evils.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Not a cup contender so Risto doesn't kill you

Considering the Flyers just beat the defending Eastern Conference champions in their own building and have 40 points - the same as those said conference champions - how is it they aren't "Cup contenders"?

Certainly, the loss of Carter Hart stings but with so many young players in the lineup it stands to reason that as a team they should only improve with experience.

 

[deadhead]

Seeler staying signals the rebuild is over. Mission accomplished! We have everything we need!

Yes, Seeler is that valuable asset that you should sell. The key to the rebuild.

I doubt a 4th or 5th rd pick is going to move the needle on a rebuild.
While Seeler has real value as a partner for a young RHD.

Now if you can get a top 100 pick, well, that's a different matter, they have more value, both as draft picks and trade assets.

 

[deadhead]

Considering the Flyers just beat the defending Eastern Conference champions in their own building and have 40 points - the same as those said conference champions - how is it they aren't "Cup contenders"?

Certainly, the loss of Carter Hart stings but with so many young players in the lineup it stands to reason that as a team they should only improve with experience.

Woah, Nellie, talk about going off the deep end (the opposite side of the pool of most of the posters here).

To be a Cup contender, you have to do a lot more than win a game or two in February, you have to have a team that has a viable chance of going 2-3 playoff series deep, that requires both talent and depth.

The talent is better than advertised, TK, Farabee and Tippett are all scoring at 1st line rates, Frost flashes 2C potential (consistency is his issue), Couts and Atkinson are solid veterans, Cates and Foerster could make a real jump with a true 3C. But no 1C, no 3rd C, no 1st pair D-men, no backup goalie and a young goalie that hasn't shown he can carry a big workload. That ain't a SC contender.

They're still 3 years away, they're adding talent (curious to see how Wheeler rates them with Gauthier gone), they have a bunch of draft picks the next two years. But they're not close to being ready to go toe to toe with a top team in a PO series.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Considering the Flyers just beat the defending Eastern Conference champions in their own building and have 40 points - the same as those said conference champions - how is it they aren't "Cup contenders"?

Certainly, the loss of Carter Hart stings but with so many young players in the lineup it stands to reason that as a team they should only improve with experience.

If you cant see why they are not cup contenders then I can't help you.

They also lost to San Jose.

 

[trostol]

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It's always so fun when the New Jersey fan comes in here to tell Flyers fans that they're wrong about the team that they watch every day.