Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape

[MS]

I would watch Dodgers games just because of Scully.

Yup. If I was flicking channels and came across a Dodgers game, that's where it stayed. Usually didn't care about the teams, but man it was great to listen to.

Around the time he retired, I found this on youtube and it's absolutely amazing. Scully calling a game (or half of it, anyway) featuring a young Sandy Koufax for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1957 :



One of my favourite facts ever in any sport is that Scully's first year in the broadcast booth was Connie Mack's last year as a manager, and the careers of those two people bridged nearly the entirety of the history of organized professional baseball from 1886-2016. 130 years.

 

[trellaine201]

RIP to a legend

Still give me shivers.

The quote was definitely odd. If they acquired him not knowing if he'll get vaccinated ... that ain't smart. But I'm assuming they must know more than they were letting on, and that there is some confidentiality stuff involved.

Yeah. Atkins isn’t making that trade unless he is vaxed or will get vaxed. Confidentiality reasons he can’t say anything.

 

[mikeyz]

Who knows

I imagine he will. And if he doesn’t, Atkins should be fired for that alone.

 

[Cloned]

They drafted him 17th overall with full knowledge of his health concerns. They obviously thought pretty highly of him.

None of that is mutually exclusive with deciding he’s more expendable than he normally would be if he didn’t undergo surgery.

 

[cyris]

None of that is mutually exclusive with deciding he’s more expendable than he normally would be if he didn’t undergo surgery.

If they didn’t value him very highly they wouldn’t have drafted him where they did after he had already undergone that surgery.
Why would their opinion on him change before he even had a chance to throw a pitch?

 

[Bjindaho]

None of that is mutually exclusive with deciding he’s more expendable than he normally would be if he didn’t undergo surgery.

We drafted a kid at 17 who was only available because he needed TJ. Toronto has shown that they are comfortable with guys needing TJ.

This doesn't make him less than Toronto's 2nd best pitching prospect at the time.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I like that we have a smart management group that is trying to build a sustainable winner and doesn’t blow up the farm chasing short term satisfaction by acquiring players that don’t make us better.

These trades were not the big sexy names, but they clearly address our issues. I’m a huge fan of Jays management. They are doing it right.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think that Nyy did poorly.

They replaced Montgomery with Montas, replaced Gallo with Benintendi, replaced lost BP arms with Efforts (solid add) and Trivino (who was overmatched at times pitchingbin Oakland). They also got a no hit all glove OF who is hurt.

They will still start a random every 5th day and Gallo was trending up while Benintendi is 20 points over his highest average ever (while providing no power).

 

[shortfuze]

Consider how much better the Yankees and Astros got. Yes. It was horrendous.

You can't possibly look at the Jays team right now and then look at the Yankees and Astros and tell me that the Jays are contenders. No way

All that matters is playoff time. If they jays go into the playoffs on a hot streak they are as good as anyone. Except maybe the dodgers. It’s all about timing.

 

[Discoverer]

I think that Nyy did poorly.

They replaced Montgomery with Montas, replaced Gallo with Benintendi, replaced lost BP arms with Efforts (solid add) and Trivino (who was overmatched at times pitchingbin Oakland). They also got a no hit all glove OF who is hurt.

They will still start a random every 5th day and Gallo was trending up while Benintendi is 20 points over his highest average ever (while providing no power).

I wouldn't say "poorly", but people are definitely acting as if they did way more than they did. I was never high on Benintendi, and the Montgomery move in particular seemed to undo some of the positive movement they had made.

Also, fun fact: I'm the last ~16 games played, the Jays have gained 5.5 games on the Yankees.

 

[Puckstuff]

With the three pitching additions, it will be interesting to see if the pitching or the offense is better in the last 60 games. So far, the offense is 3rd in runs per game, and the pitching/defense is 11th best in run prevention, but only one run off 9th best. The Jays offense could lose Springer for some time though; meanwhile, the pitching added three pieces, and Berrios is getting in form. Pitching/defense could enter the top 5 in run prevention. This team looks very balanced.

 

[Eyedea]

The Astros needed a CF and a C and they ended up with a 1B, C, and a trash RP? Figured Odorizzi would return something a lot better. I think McCormick is a good enough option for them at CF to trade Siri but I don’t see Mancini as pushing the needle especially with Yuli hitting much better since June. Vazquez was necessary but again, don’t see a ton of value gained here when Mancini has a lower fWAR than Yuli since the start of June and the difference between Odorizzi and Smith is… pretty drastic to say the least.

 

[zeke]

Fangraphs combined rest of season projections

Merrifield (33): 229pa, 99wrc+, 0.9war
Bass (34): 24ip, 3.64era, 0.3war
White (27): 15ip, 4.21era, 0.1war
Pop (25): 11ip, 3.87era, 0.0war

note that that projected performance by Merrifield would be a substantial step up from what he's done the last 2 seasons.

 

[Bjindaho]

The Astros needed a CF and a C and they ended up with a 1B, C, and a trash RP? Figured Odorizzi would return something a lot better. I think McCormick is a good enough option for them at CF to trade Siri but I don’t see Mancini as pushing the needle especially with Yuli hitting much better since June. Vazquez was necessary but again, don’t see a ton of value gained here when Mancini has a lower fWAR than Yuli since the start of June and the difference between Odorizzi and Smith is… pretty drastic to say the least.

Smith for Odorizzi is a smelly trade. Smith makes almost 9M more to be worse.

That being said, Smith's problem is walks and homers. Put him in Houston and the HR likely goes down. Lower the leverage a little and the walks likely go down.

I'd argue that Beasley for Odorizzi would actually have been better for them.

Vazquez took their black hole (C) and added something.

Right now, I see Mancini being their normal 1B (outhitting Gurriel) but he also can play LF when Brantley needs a day off or right when McCormick or Tucker do (Tucker can play CF in a pinch).

 

[BertCorbeau]

At this point catching the Yanks is tough, but what’s more important is that top WC spot for home field in the best of 3.

I would despise having to play in the playoffs at the Trop (again)

 

[Bjindaho]

Fangraphs combined rest of season projections

Merrifield (33): 229pa, 99wrc+, 0.9war
Bass (34): 24ip, 3.64era, 0.3war
White (27): 15ip, 4.21era, 0.1war
Pop (25): 11ip, 3.87era, 0.0war

note that that projected performance by Merrifield would be a substantial step up from what he's done the last 2 seasons.

He also has a 99wRC+ since May 1.

 

[zeke]

I like that we have a smart management group that is trying to build a sustainable winner and doesn’t blow up the farm chasing short term satisfaction

Funny that this gets said the same day the Jays trade away a 22yr old 12th overall pick. After trading away a 22yr old 19th overall pick in the offseason. And after trading away 22yr old 5th overall pick last deadline.

He also has a 99wRC+ since May 1.

And a 93wrc+ since all-star.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I am sad we gave up Frasso. Gotta appreciate the Dodger's philosophy of trading any mediocre player for high potential players, even if they have a very high chance of busting.

 

[saska sault]

Picking up a player who has led the league in hits and stolen bases since 2018? Sure he is having a down year and had to overcome the obvious issue before playing... But come on, if that and the bullpen help without gutting the farm isnt a win, what is? I expect next year they start thinking of moving a few top prospects as Vladdy and Bo approach contract extensions (hopefully).

 

[Bjindaho]

Picking up a player who has led the league in hits and stolen bases since 2018? Sure he is having a down year and had to overcome the obvious issue before playing... But come on, if that and the bullpen help without gutting the farm isnt a win, what is? I expect next year they start thinking of moving a few top prospects as Vladdy and Bo approach contract extensions (hopefully).

Not only that, the obvious player that he replaces is Zimmer, because he also plays CF (actually has better defensive numbers this year), can run (more SB), but he can actually hit at a level that we can tolerate in the lineup (and he plays 2B and RF as well).

 

[MAB1]

Funny that this gets said the same day the Jays trade away a 22yr old 12th overall pick. After trading away a 22yr old 19th overall pick in the offseason. And after trading away 22yr old 5th overall pick last deadline.



And a 93wrc+ since all-star.

Trading away prospects that they've identified as stalled progress or not part of their future doesn't mean they're not building a sustainable winner lol. All the prospects they traded in that manner have reflected their views post trade (SWR + Martin falling off the map top 100 wise, Groshans to follow, etc). Draft position means nothing, Moreno is still here, Tiedemann, Martinez, etc.

 

[metafour]

Funny that this gets said the same day the Jays trade away a 22yr old 12th overall pick. After trading away a 22yr old 19th overall pick in the offseason. And after trading away 22yr old 5th overall pick last deadline.

How is that funny or at all relevant?

"22 yr old 12th overall pick" - Who hasn't hit for any power at all the past two seasons and can't play SS. That means that he's a 3B with a noodle bat, and it's not like he's a freak at making contact either. Oh yeah, and he needs to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

"22 yr old 19th overall pick" - Yes, they liked Hoglund, but he also hadn't even pitched an inning yet and they moved him for an impact player in Chapman, who is on pace for a ~4.5 WAR season. Trading Hoglund was also an option because they ended up getting a 1st round talent in Ricky Tiedemann in the exact same draft.

"22 yr old 5th overall pick" - Who has proven to be a complete bust. This is literally one of the smartest moves they have ever made. Austin Martin looks useless repeating AA, and they moved him before his value completely tanked.

This is literally what you want to see happen: they keep the prospects that they actually think can be impact players, and they move the guys that they lose faith in. Hoglund is the only guy who wasn't "down" considerably at the time of the trade, and as a guy who hadn't even pitched yet he headlined a trade for a major acquisition, so the cost is justified.

The fact that you brought up Groshans and Martin and could only reference their draft position is utter trolling. I'm glad to see that zeke is back to his old stupidity.

The guy that they just got back from the Dodgers (20 year old SS/3B Alex De Jesus) actually looks more interesting than either Martin or Groshans LOL.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Picking up a player who has led the league in hits and stolen bases since 2018? Sure he is having a down year and had to overcome the obvious issue before playing... But come on, if that and the bullpen help without gutting the farm isnt a win, what is? I expect next year they start thinking of moving a few top prospects as Vladdy and Bo approach contract extensions (hopefully).

As long as he is willing to get vaccinated.

 

[Bjindaho]

The big questions coming out of the deadline IMO are:
Springer's health (I'm happy that we can now rest OF even when Springer is banged up)
Kikuchi and Berrios (both have been up and down, though we did get White to have some cover)
Too many 2B (Espinal/Biggio/Merrifield)

I think the swing and miss is a little overblown (Romano has it, Garcia is just under a K/IP, Phelps is at 8.26 K/9, and Richards has a ridiculous K/9. Add in Cimber (not a swing and miss guy by design), Bass (9.07), Pop (6.3 but has a season in the 8s because of his slider).

If Mayza is 8 (over Richards), then he is the guy I worry about. Yes, he has a high GB rate (like Cimber), but his K rate has fallen (as his fastball has lost a tick yet been thrown more) and his slider has gotten a little bit harder. This is usually the precursor for bad stuff.

Richards is throwing harder than he ever has. He's just throwing his slider too much and not throwing enough quality strikes.

 

[MAB1]

Wonder if the Brewers would consider trading Burnes in the offseason. Two years away from free agency after this season and probably chasing a Cole type of contract. If I'm the Jays I offer Verlander a blank cheque this offseason and if that fails go hard after Burnes. I like Ohtani a lot but trading everything on the farm for one year of him is no bueno for me, if he comes + an extension that's different though.

1. Verlander/Burnes
2. Manoah
3. Gausman
4. Berrios

Would take that rotation over almost any in baseball. Think they need another Manoah level starter to really compete with the Dodgers/Mets/Astros/Yankees instead of being underdogs in those matchups.