Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape

[Discoverer]

Fangraphs combined rest of season projections

Merrifield (33): 229pa, 99wrc+, 0.9war
Bass (34): 24ip, 3.64era, 0.3war
White (27): 15ip, 4.21era, 0.1war
Pop (25): 11ip, 3.87era, 0.0war

note that that projected performance by Merrifield would be a substantial step up from what he's done the last 2 seasons.

But it would be exactly in line with what he's done the last three months.

 

[zeke]

How is that funny or at all relevant?

"22 yr old 12th overall pick" - Who hasn't hit for any power at all the past two seasons and can't play SS. That means that he's a 3B with a noodle bat, and it's not like he's a freak at making contact either. Oh yeah, and he needs to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

"22 yr old 19th overall pick" - Yes, they liked Hoglund, but he also hadn't even pitched an inning yet and they moved him for an impact player in Chapman, who is on pace for a ~4.5 WAR season. Trading Hoglund was also an option because they ended up getting a 1st round talent in Ricky Tiedemann in the exact same draft.

"22 yr old 5th overall pick" - Who has proven to be a complete bust. This is literally one of the smartest moves they have ever made. Austin Martin looks useless repeating AA, and they moved him before his value completely tanked.

This is literally what you want to see happen: they keep the prospects that they actually think can be impact players, and they move the guys that they lose faith in. Hoglund is the only guy who wasn't "down" considerably at the time of the trade, and as a guy who hadn't even pitched yet he headlined a trade for a major acquisition, so the cost is justified.

The fact that you brought up Groshans and Martin and could only reference their draft position is utter trolling. I'm glad to see that zeke is back to his old stupidity.

The guy that they just got back from the Dodgers (20 year old SS/3B Alex De Jesus) actually looks more interesting than either Martin or Groshans LOL.

Doesnt say much about their drafting then, eh?

 

[Bjindaho]

Wonder if the Brewers would consider trading Burnes in the offseason. Two years away from free agency after this season and probably chasing a Cole type of contract. If I'm the Jays I offer Verlander a blank cheque this offseason and if that fails go hard after Burnes. I like Ohtani a lot but trading everything on the farm for one year of him is no bueno for me, if he comes + an extension that's different though.

1. Verlander/Burnes
2. Manoah
3. Gausman
4. Berrios

Would take that rotation over almost any in baseball. Think they need another Manoah level starter to really compete with the Dodgers/Mets/Astros/Yankees instead of being underdogs in those matchups.

Personally, my all in is going hard after Judge

 

[Eyedea]

Smith for Odorizzi is a smelly trade. Smith makes almost 9M more to be worse.

That being said, Smith's problem is walks and homers. Put him in Houston and the HR likely goes down. Lower the leverage a little and the walks likely go down.

I'd argue that Beasley for Odorizzi would actually have been better for them.

Vazquez took their black hole (C) and added something.

Right now, I see Mancini being their normal 1B (outhitting Gurriel) but he also can play LF when Brantley needs a day off or right when McCormick or Tucker do (Tucker can play CF in a pinch).

Walks have been an issue for Smith since last season, and home runs have been an issue for the past 4 seasons. Since he joined Atlanta he's become a flyball pitcher and batters have been barreling him more frequently. I understand their only lefty in the pen has been Blake Taylor who is shit, but they're already one of the best pens against lefties. Odorizzi could probably do better than Smith in the bullpen.

Vazquez no complaints, that was a need they filled.

Mancini has been worse than Gurriel for the last two months. He had a hot May, tapered off a bit in June, and struggled mightily in July. Astros also defensively platoon Yordan/Brantley in LF, Tucker's an elite RF, a great baserunner, but his speed doesn't play well in CF. Mancini's ROS projections are equivalent to Gurriel's, and clearly not as good as Yordan/Tucker/Brantley.

I understand giving them more rest down the stretch but didn't really see him as a need, certainly less of an "upgrade" which makes me think people just hype up the Astros' deadline because they acquired names we're familiar with.

 

[Eyedea]

Doesnt say much about their drafting then, eh?

Does it really matter if they acquired 2 years of Chapman, 1.5 years of Berrios, 1.5 years of Bass, and 4.5 years of Pop?

 

[metafour]

Doesnt say much about their drafting then, eh?

 

[MAB1]

Personally, my all in is going hard after Judge

He's not leaving NY

 

[zeke]

Does it really matter if they acquired.... 1.5 years of Bass, and 4.5 years of Pop?

Is this a real post.

 

[Eyedea]

Is this a real post.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[Cloned]

If they didn’t value him very highly they wouldn’t have drafted him where they did after he had already undergone that surgery.
Why would their opinion on him change before he even had a chance to throw a pitch?

We drafted a kid at 17 who was only available because he needed TJ. Toronto has shown that they are comfortable with guys needing TJ.

This doesn't make him less than Toronto's 2nd best pitching prospect at the time.

IMO the fact that he was coming off surgery made him “easier” to give up in the eyes of management.

As I said, good that they can identify these expendable prospects and maximize value for them. But at some point they may have to make a more uncomfortable trade and I’m not sure if they’ll be able to pull the trigger in a timely fashion.

 

[Bjindaho]

Doesnt say much about their drafting then, eh?

Tiedemann is currently ranked the 18th best prospect of the 2021 draft (and could potentially join the 3 at the top by next year). Hoglund is still considered a 45FV prospect

Our 2022 draft is being lauded as one of the better drafts.

 

[Discoverer]

Doesnt say much about their drafting then, eh?

Not everyone can churn out DJ Davises and Max Pentecosts every year.

 

[thehockeysong]

I'll throw my hat in the ring of people that liked the deadline. My main concern was the front office giving into the pressure to acquire someone fans were hoping for. I'd much rather hang onto the top few prospects for longevity of this core.

To me, baseball isn't a "go all in" sport. The best team usually doesn't win. Now with the expanded playoffs that is likely to happen even less. Better to be in the playoffs every single year as a contender, and always have a decent shot. Can't have major holes in the roster, and with the acquisitions they no longer do.

 

[Eyedea]

I'll throw my hat in the ring of people that liked the deadline. My main concern was the front office giving into the pressure to acquire someone fans were hoping for. I'd much rather hang onto the top few prospects for longevity of this core.

To me, baseball isn't a "go all in" sport. The best team usually doesn't win. Now with the expanded playoffs that is likely to happen even less. Better to be in the playoffs every single year as a contender, and always have a decent shot. Can't have major holes in the roster, and with the acquisitions they no longer do.

Yup, same thing with the Cards. Didn't want to move their young guns for a big bat like Soto, or pitching like Castillo. They opted for Quintana and a shrewd deal of Bader for Montgomery. Just try to get in, which I think the Jays have done here by adding starting depth and relief.

 

[stickty111]

Okay here are my rational thoughts now that a day has passed. I really like the Bass and Pop trade. Those are 2 legit upgrades and gave up only a failed prospect.
White is a decent cheap add who can be a 5th starter or help the BP. They got a decent prospect as well for 2 okay pieces all though losing Frasso hurts a bit.
I'm optimistic with Merrifield but again I rather pay the price for someone better but it's fine.
So overall, I would have liked more but the positive is biggest weakness was improved, depth in White and depth in the lineup. B- for me

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yup, same thing with the Cards. Didn't want to move their young guns for a big bat like Soto, or pitching like Castillo. They opted for Quintana and a shrewd deal of Bader for Montgomery. Just try to get in, which I think the Jays have done here by adding starting depth and relief.

Well, I think they would already been in with or without these moves. I don’t like the thinking of just getting in, I want to do some damage. This team is clearly capable. I do agree with the notion that the team that makes the sexiest moves doesn’t always win. I want a showdown with the Yanks in the playoffs. That’s the only way to know who made the right moves.

 

[Bjindaho]

Well, I think they would already been in with or without these moves. I don’t like the thinking of just getting in, I want to do some damage. This team is clearly capable. I do agree with the notion that the team that makes the sexiest moves doesn’t always win.

I think that depends on your definition of "do some damage"

In a short game series, we can run Gausman, Manoah, Berrios and Stripling out in some order and can basically use our high leverage guys in every game. Having extra pieces is all about getting in and getting rest.

With Merriweather, we realistically could have Merriweather, Biggio and Tapia on the bench in the playoffs which gives 3 very different looks for opponents to have to plan for.

Depending on how guys do in the 2nd half, I could see a Zulueta and a Tiedemann potentially getting September call-ups to pitch out of the pen (and even potentially being on a playoff roster over Kikuchi).

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think that depends on your definition of "do some damage"

In a short game series, we can run Gausman, Manoah, Berrios and Stripling out in some order and can basically use our high leverage guys in every game. Having extra pieces is all about getting in and getting rest.

With Merriweather, we realistically could have Merriweather, Biggio and Tapia on the bench in the playoffs which gives 3 very different looks for opponents to have to plan for.

Depending on how guys do in the 2nd half, I could see a Zulueta and a Tiedemann potentially getting September call-ups to pitch out of the pen (and even potentially being on a playoff roster over Kikuchi).

As in make the ALCS or World Series.

 

[MAB1]

As in make the ALCS or World Series.

They can do that as currently constructed. This team is built to compete for the next 5-10 years. Enjoy the ride, maybe they make the ALCS/World Series this year, maybe they don't. Regardless, the gap between the Jays/Astros/Yankees will be revealed come October and from there the front office will adjust accordingly.

 

[Eyedea]

Well, I think they would already been in with or without these moves. I don’t like the thinking of just getting in, I want to do some damage. This team is clearly capable. I do agree with the notion that the team that makes the sexiest moves doesn’t always win.

I just don't see the reason to move Moreno or Tiedemann + for Castillo. The rotation is already very good and in form, no need to sacrifice major pieces for it. Soto would have been nice, but who knows what the Nats were asking for from the Jays.

As in make the ALCS or World Series.

I've seen less talented teams get there/win it all

 

[stats1]

I can’t be the only who is excited about Alex De Jesus. Only 20 years old, was one of the top SS prospects internationally in 2018. Dodgers gave him $500,000 to sign

 

[613Leafer]

I'll throw my hat in the ring of people that liked the deadline. My main concern was the front office giving into the pressure to acquire someone fans were hoping for. I'd much rather hang onto the top few prospects for longevity of this core.

To me, baseball isn't a "go all in" sport. The best team usually doesn't win. Now with the expanded playoffs that is likely to happen even less. Better to be in the playoffs every single year as a contender, and always have a decent shot. Can't have major holes in the roster, and with the acquisitions they no longer do.

Agreed. I think the focus should be on maintaining a competitive window for as long as possible, rather than trying to be THE best team on paper for one year, but then take a big step back the next few years due to all the value sent out the door for short-term going all in type of moves.

Not to mention, this team HAS been making big moves, they just haven't been at the trade deadline. Springer, Chapman, Berrios, Gausman, etc weren't drafted and developed internally, or signed for cheap and then broke out after coming here. They were all big moves.

 

[stats1]

Getting a legit prospect to replace Groshans who is younger and projects to be better imo and Mitchell White who helps the big club now who is under control for 5 years for Nick Frasso and Brito is a shrewd move albeit not a huge deal but it’s very solid

 

[Bjindaho]

As in make the ALCS or World Series.

Which teams scare you in a short series?

The Yankees have the pitching, but I think they are a toss-up at worst. Houston is a very good team.

Minnesota acquired Mahle (who is now their #1 starter) and two bullpen pieces (who are now their 2 bullpen pieces).

Seattle got Castillo to join Gilbert and Ray. Their BP has less swing and miss than Toronto's and they didn't fix any of the positions where they start a sub-replacement level player (Merrifield would ironically have been a big upgrade for them).

Chicago and Cleveland did nothing.

Tampa got better behind the plate and added a little depth. They have good pitching for the playoffs but might be in tough offensively.

On top of this, 1 of these teams will miss the playoffs.

 

[stats1]

I think Atkins did as well as he could without depleting the farm. In a few years when we gotta pay Vlad 300 million, and Bichette an extension and Teo, we’re going to need young cheap talent on the roster. Kirk/Moreno, Tiedemann, etc will help in that