Open letter to Trevor Linden, Jim Benning and Francesco Aquilini;
We, the long suffering fans of the Vancouver Canucks, implore you to realistically assess the team’s short term and long term fortunes and make the difficult, but sensible decisions with respect to the 2015-16 NHL trade deadline.
Realistically, based on current standing and historical trends, it’s going to take at least 95 points to finish in the top 3 in the Pacific division and likely 88 to 90 points to finish in the 2nd Wild Card spot. Since only Toronto has fewer ROW points, the team will lose the tie breaker to any team in the Division except maybe Edmonton. To make the playoffs this season, the Canucks will therefore have to finish the remaining 28 games with an 18-10-0 record (a .642 pace) Considering that up until this point of the season, the team is on a 0.518 pace and has not put together 3 wins in a row this year, we think it very unlikely that the team is going to make the playoffs. Wishful thinking is not a strategy.
The team often plays lip service to the ‘knowledgeable” fans in the Vancouver market who hold the team to a fairly high standard. I think the fans are knowledgeable, sophisticated and would support a rebuild under the right conditions. In fact I would propose that there has never been a time in the history of the team that the fan base is more ready for a rebuild under the right conditions. Those conditions are that there is a sensible and realistic plan moving forward. Currently, we don’t see this. What we see is a dramatically improved pool of good, but not elite, young prospects and a plan to try to make the playoffs every year while incrementally improving. But fans understand that no team has won a Stanley Cup in recent years without elite players – the type that are generally only available in the top 3 or top 5 picks of the NHL draft. We currently have Daniel and Henrik, but they are 36 years old.
Fans are energized about players such as Hutton, Horvat, Virtanen, McCann and Baertschi, and in our development system players like Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Subban, Boeser, Demko, Pedan, Fedun, Tryamkin, Cassels etc. show promise. But we also realize that without a top 3 draft pick, there is little chance of replacing the impact of a player like Henrik Sedin when he retires. Without replacing Henrik and adding a near Norris calibre defender, the Canucks will be on the bubble to make the playoffs for the foreseeable future. These players are rarely available outside of the top 3 or top 5 in the NHL entry draft or via free agency.
We also understand that hockey is a business. But if attendance is down despite a 100 point season and making the playoffs in 2014-15, it’s probably because fans understand the above calculus and are pessimistic about the future of the team. From a business perspective, would it not make sense to forego, perhaps a 30% chance of hosting 3 home playoff games this season, to build the talent base for more consistent and extended playoff runs in the future? If we don’t do the right thing this year, we will likely be back in exactly the same position next year. From what we the fans have seen of ownership, missing the playoffs 2 of 3 years has not turned out well for previous front offices.
So are we saying the Canucks should ‘tank’? No – we don’t think any athlete should play in an environment where the goal is not to win every contest. But there are players who don’t seem much interested in winning every contest – Radim Vrbata comes to mind. His trade value however is dropping faster than his position on the depth chart. A few games with the Sedins to bolster his offensive numbers could return the team a 2nd round pick at the trade deadline. Matt Bartkowski, despite his beautiful skating and his mom’s entertaining interview, is not to our eyes significantly better than Andrey Pedan or even Jordan Subban. Does Adam Cracknell have a future with the team next year? If not, why not try Brendan Gaunce or Matt Zalewski in that slot?
Should we trade or waive all of our core veterans? No – young players need to develop in a positive environment and need mentors and leaders around them. Prior to Alex Edler being injured, there was a strong argument to discuss his NTC with Dan Hamhuis. Trading Hammer, to a contending team like the Capitals could potentially return a late first round pick. With Edler on the shelf, this is still an intriguing option, but it runs the risk of gutting the D and putting too much pressure on Tanev and Hutton. If we are to call up a prospect like Pedan, Fedun or Subban, they would benefit from the steadying influence of Tanev, Hammer and Hutton (yes a rookie!). Regardless of what is done on this front, every effort should be made to re-sign Hamhuis in June/July.
