The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[dcyhabs]

Again I feel like so much of this discussion is just pointing out that the team is bad right now and then asserting that it means we should be deeply worried the rebuild is on a one-way trip to Sabresville because some arbitrary amount of time has passed so we "should" be better. IMO it doesn't really make sense to be so focused on these "progress" narratives instead of the actual names and players. Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Hutson have all been good and most of the struggling players outside of Dach are either bad vets who will be gone or young players who will either figure it out or be replaced. Dach is the main big question mark but IMO it's too early to declare his career at C over (and truly it's not like it's the worst outcome if he becomes a possession driving winger with size either)

I get that it's frustrating to sit through but rationally this seems like way too much of a sustained freakout because we look bad with 4-6 forwards dressed who will be here long term, Primeau (who is easily replaceable with any generic veteran backup) being atrocious, Savard/Dvorak/Armia playing like bad AHLers, and guys who are penciled in/project as #4-6D (Xhekaj, Struble, Barron) struggling with 100-150 career games each.

I agree. The team is missing some key parts, and is either not playing the system properly or not playing the right system. The habs aren’t making the playoffs with minor changes this year, and trying yo make major changes is pretty difficult when other GMs think you are in a bad position.

The worst thing to do would be to give up on lots of players and sell low. Good teams take underrated players from bad teams for nothing, and I don’t trust the habs to evaluate their players more effectively than teams that are actually winning.

Kovacevic and Harris shed some light. Kovacevic went to a better team, moved up the lineup due to injuries, and did well. Harris went to a team that is even more messed up than the habs and looked worse.

Good teams can predict how players will fit with their players and systems. Bad teams trade for Huberdeau when their playing style is totally wrong for his game.

The habs aren’t making still in more or less the same spot they were at the start of the rebuild. Better depth, some interesting players, but still missing one or two top D, at least two forwards who can drive the play, a shutdown C, and a real number one goalie. They have a better team to plug those guys into, and they probably won’t fill all of those needs, but they still need to fill the hard slots, not the easy ones.

Demidov, Beck, Roy, Mailloux and others have a chance to fill some of those roles. So far no one who has played minutes for the habs has shown top line/pairing skills, but most of them are pretty young. The way to doom the rebuild is to take the best offer from a good team for one of these guys and watch him immediately look better on a good team that can shelter and integrate him while the others stagnate.

There may be a need for trades. There may be a need for a different coach, or an additional coach. It’s important to follow the plan and not be influenced by offers that come in or any of the media takes. Listening to the media is how you spend assets for Dvorak.

 

[dcyhabs]

FWIW I don't even really think we need all that much more time for all the talk about 7-10 year rebuild timelines. Absent something unexpected like Suzuki and Guhle quitting hockey to join a monastery I'd approximately be pencilling in next season as the uh...."in the mix" year with the following season being a reasonable expectation of making the playoffs, and then future growth coming from Slafkovsky/Demidov/Reinbacher/Guhle maturing into their primes (alongside potentially another high pick this year) over the following seasons.

The FO has been setting up for multiple years to start making bigger moves this summer with Armia/Dvorak/Savard/Evans expiring (although I think we'll extend Evans) and more of the young players filtering into the lineup. I think they'll dump Anderson this summer as well. We'll probably keep Gallagher because we won't be cap-limited and he's still capable of being a solid 3rd liner while Anderson has no real fit on the team. I think they're going to take a swing on a right shot D and potentially a stopgap 2C if Dach doesn't show progress in the 2nd half at C. We'll also have a lot of money and obvious roster spots to raise the floor by replacing total slugs with good depth guys and we'll have Laine and Demidov on the opening night roster compared to this year's opening night team. Collectively I think that's a pretty big change with all the young players getting a year further into their careers as well.

I agree, but I suspect a well run team, unlike the habs and blue jackets, would be able to put Anderson in a position to succeed.

There is a big difference between a team of young guys with a newbie coach and established teams with a winning transition and a core of vets to teach the new guys.

 

[1909]

Next step ?: Having a NHL level coaching staff.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Just to let everyone know, you aren't allowed any expectations for this year and can't be disappointed or angry. I was illuminated on this subject, zero expectations and happily consume product.

 

[blarneylad]

Just to let everyone know, you aren't allowed any expectations for this year and can't be disappointed or angry. I was illuminated on this subject, zero expectations and happily consume product.

I expect the unexpected

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree. The team is missing some key parts, and is either not playing the system properly or not playing the right system. The habs aren’t making the playoffs with minor changes this year, and trying yo make major changes is pretty difficult when other GMs think you are in a bad position.

The worst thing to do would be to give up on lots of players and sell low. Good teams take underrated players from bad teams for nothing, and I don’t trust the habs to evaluate their players more effectively than teams that are actually winning.

Kovacevic and Harris shed some light. Kovacevic went to a better team, moved up the lineup due to injuries, and did well. Harris went to a team that is even more messed up than the habs and looked worse.

Good teams can predict how players will fit with their players and systems. Bad teams trade for Huberdeau when their playing style is totally wrong for his game.

The habs aren’t making still in more or less the same spot they were at the start of the rebuild. Better depth, some interesting players, but still missing one or two top D, at least two forwards who can drive the play, a shutdown C, and a real number one goalie. They have a better team to plug those guys into, and they probably won’t fill all of those needs, but they still need to fill the hard slots, not the easy ones.

Demidov, Beck, Roy, Mailloux and others have a chance to fill some of those roles. So far no one who has played minutes for the habs has shown top line/pairing skills, but most of them are pretty young. The way to doom the rebuild is to take the best offer from a good team for one of these guys and watch him immediately look better on a good team that can shelter and integrate him while the others stagnate.

There may be a need for trades. There may be a need for a different coach, or an additional coach. It’s important to follow the plan and not be influenced by offers that come in or any of the media takes. Listening to the media is how you spend assets for Dvorak.

Agree with you. But I do think Matheson should be dealt and I’ve felt that way for a while.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Just to let everyone know, you aren't allowed any expectations for this year and can't be disappointed or angry. I was illuminated on this subject, zero expectations and happily consume product.

I want a team filled to the brim with talent and made my peace with the 5+ years of losing it entails. I was sick and entirely f***ing tired of mediocrityland, perennial bubble teams, and missing out on the greatest players from the draft.

Bergevin made all of that happen. He banked on old dudes and here we are. It is what it is. There's no other choice than to accept what was inevitable. Otherwise you'll just be miserable, wasting your time moaning and waiting for a miracle trade or signing that will never come.

 

[Heffyhoof]

I want a team filled to the brim with talent and made my peace with the 5+ years of losing it entails. I was sick and entirely f***ing tired of mediocrityland, perennial bubble teams, and missing out on the greatest players from the draft.

Bergevin made all of that happen. He banked on old dudes and here we are. It is what it is. There's no other choice than to accept what was inevitable. Otherwise you'll just be miserable, wasting your time moaning and waiting for a miracle trade or signing that will never come.

Fair enough, we both have different ideas of what rebuilding means.

 

[Habby4Life]

Next step ?: Having a NHL level coaching staff.

Yes!!!
Losing like this night after night isn’t good for development.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The same number of years as our best player and current face of the rebuild.

Really makes you think.

Demidov?

 

[Hannibal]

The base of our defence is set. We just need a couple RD vets to go along with them. Go all in for Andersson and try and trade for Parayko. Would use Mailloux, Matheson and Struble as trade bait.

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Parayko
Xhekaj-Reinbacher

Now, the forwards group is where the problem is. We need to get some size, dog and skill to boost that top 6.

 

[Mrb1p]

Demidov?

If Demidov is our best player and isn't in the NHL yet, why do we have a 1C that was drafted 8 years ago? We should just move on from him.

The reality is no, not Demidov.

 

[Miller Time]

I want a team filled to the brim with talent and made my peace with the 5+ years of losing it entails. I was sick and entirely f***ing tired of mediocrityland, perennial bubble teams, and missing out on the greatest players from the draft.

Bergevin made all of that happen. He banked on old dudes and here we are. It is what it is. There's no other choice than to accept what was inevitable. Otherwise you'll just be miserable, wasting your time moaning and waiting for a miracle trade or signing that will never come.

Agree except the last part...

The Eor's around here will find anything to complain about.

For some, the miserable moaning & wailing is inevitable regardless of the approach.

A day after the parade, the board will be full of complaining that it was "too long", "too short", "players drank too much & won't be ready for next year", "MSL's dance moves were lame", "KH's grin was too smug".... And on and on.

We've got more U25 talent in the organization than I've ever seen. Not all will hit their ceilings, but if even 1/4 do, and KH continues to show patience and opportunism on the trade & UFA contract front, we'll be in a great roster situation as those talents hit their prime... If 3/4+ hit, we'll be in dynasty territory and multiple cups may well be possible.

Future is bright

 

[WeThreeKings]

If Demidov is our best player and isn't in the NHL yet, why do we have a 1C that was drafted 8 years ago? We should just move on from him.

The reality is no, not Demidov.

Because he's a 1C, will be still be in his prime when Demidov is hitting his stride in the NHL and it's an additional piece you don't have to hope to hit on through the draft/trade/FA.

I know you're not this obtuse.

 

[Draft]

The base of our defence is set. We just need a couple RD vets to go along with them. Go all in for Andersson and try and trade for Parayko. Would use Mailloux, Matheson and Struble as trade bait.

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Parayko
Xhekaj-Reinbacher

Now, the forwards group is where the problem is. We need to get some size, dog and skill to boost that top 6.

LD looks great. Dynamic even.

Andersson I can get behind. I’d have concerns about whether he’d re-sign, but there’s unlikely to be any other young(ish) top pairing RD available anytime soon. Dobson is a pipe dream and suspect defensively. A risky trade but maybe one that shifts the fortunes of the team long term.

Parayko is 31 and has five more years on his contract. Just not a good fit considering age, contract, and cost to acquire. Pass for me.

 

[dcyhabs]

Agree with you. But I do think Matheson should be dealt and I’ve felt that way for a while.

In terms of asset value, definitely. Pushing the D corps even further underwater would guarantee a top pick this year, and they should get something back for him.

At some point the D has to be good, though, and they need some vets to pass along their knowledge. Ideally that wouldn't be Matheson, but they need at least 2-3 guys who were good and could think the game at some point even if they aren't that good now. Matheson gets by on skating, Savard gets by on effort. They need someone like Weber to come in and coach, and some over the hill guys to player coach.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

In terms of asset value, definitely. Pushing the D corps even further underwater would guarantee a top pick this year, and they should get something back for him.

I wouldn’t do it as a tank move. I’d replace him with a vet RD. We have too many guys on the left side and no real steady presence.

At some point the D has to be good, though, and they need some vets to pass along their knowledge. Ideally that wouldn't be Matheson, but they need at least 2-3 guys who were good and could think the game at some point even if they aren't that good now. Matheson gets by on skating, Savard gets by on effort. They need someone like Weber to come in and coach, and some over the hill guys to player coach.

I keep saying a Roman Hamrlyk type that we got about 10-15 years ago. Steady vet with some mobility. Not a number one but someone who can play there as a bridge until your young players figure it all out.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If Demidov is our best player and isn't in the NHL yet, why do we have a 1C that was drafted 8 years ago? We should just move on from him.

The reality is no, not Demidov.

Completely ridiculous take.

Do you trade Malkin because you have Crosby? I'm not comparing players here, but you stack players to get better, rather than holding absolutist dichotomies where it's either one or the other.

Also, Suzuki was drafted 7 years ago, not 8.

 

[Ieatsht4brkfst]

nick suzuki is a number 1 centre like david perron is a 1st line winger

 

[Team_Spirit]

I expect the unexpected

Bob Gainey reference

 

[dcyhabs]

I wouldn’t do it as a tank move. I’d replace him with a vet RD. We have too many guys on the left side and no real steady presence.

I keep saying a Roman Hamrlyk type that we got about 10-15 years ago. Steady vet with some mobility. Not a number one but someone who can play there as a bridge until your young players figure it all out.

It would be really good to do that, but all 31 other GMs are looking at the habs and just salivating over the position Hughes is in. Trying to make a hockey trade for a righty pretty much guarantees getting back a problematic player. They'd probably be able to make that trade if they were at .500.

If there is a workable trade, great. I suspect they will have to give more years and more term than they want to some free agents who are well over the hill. Hughes is effectively trying to trade useless old guys for useful old guys, and it all depends on the premium. I doubt the habs are in a position where trading high draft picks is a good idea, and the only prospects that have value are the ones they should keep. It's probably a good idea for Hughes to see what prospects he gets offers for and look at those guys a little more closely.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It would be really good to do that, but all 31 other GMs are looking at the habs and just salivating over the position Hughes is in. Trying to make a hockey trade for a righty pretty much guarantees getting back a problematic player. They'd probably be able to make that trade if they were at .500.

They shouldn’t be salivating at anything. Hughes can just finish low and get a top pick. He’s not under pressure to do anything.

Matheson can help tons of teams. Hes relatively cheap and his deal is coming up soon. He’s a great asset. Young guys like Barron (who I’d hate to part with) would fetch a nice return as well.

If there is a workable trade, great. I suspect they will have to give more years and more term than they want to some free agents who are well over the hill. Hughes is effectively trying to trade useless old guys for useful old guys, and it all depends on the premium. I doubt the habs are in a position where trading high draft picks is a good idea, and the only prospects that have value are the ones they should keep. It's probably a good idea for Hughes to see what prospects he gets offers for and look at those guys a little more closely.

Hughes isn’t trading useless old guys. I’m not talking about Dvorak. I’m talking about Matheson, picks, prospects. Dvorak can’t be given away.

 

[The Real Timo]

Unless Hughes addresses coaching somehow in the next week, any other moves are irrelevant. He can bring the entire Jets team over that is tearing up the league and they will immediately look like what Habs look playing under St Louis. There are a ton more problems than just the coaching staff, but you have to start with that. Bring in competent coaching adn they can work on other things given the "talent" level.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Their price was a 1st rounder and it wasn't met. We are talking about a team that needs more contributing veterans today and we should have traded one that is appreciated by the locker room for a 2nd?



How often was this team playing meaningful games past October?

View attachment 927902

What about this team?

View attachment 927904

Or this team?

View attachment 927905

Rebuilds don't just end and you don't just jump out of bottom 5 of the league in one off-season, especially when only 2 players that have been acquired through that rebuild are currently on the team, at age 20.

What about other teams that have been rebuilding or started rebuilding at the same time as us?

View attachment 927906

Hmmm Celebrini with Smith and the Sharks aren't playing meaningful games.
Anaheim (a team this board will cry about how good their drafting is) isn't looking to be playing any meaningful games with Gauthier, Carlsson, MacTavish, Mintyukov, Zegras, etc.
Chicago with generational Bedard isn't doing much better than us and they also started their rebuild the same year as us.
Philadelphia with generational Michkov and all of his can't miss scoring isn't playing more meaningful games than us and just proved last year was an aberration not an indication of a strengthened core; and one of the most applauded systems coaches in Tortorella is getting about the same output as green peewee Marty.

I think you're kind of throwing shit at the wall and not looking at what those teams actually did. Including Florida, who were never really rebuilding.

Not a lot of teams went through the route we went to as it wasn't actually all that common to do so at the time.

 

[Draft]

Unless Hughes addresses coaching somehow in the next week, any other moves are irrelevant. He can bring the entire Jets team over that is tearing up the league and they will immediately look like what Habs look playing under St Louis. There are a ton more problems than just the coaching staff, but you have to start with that. Bring in competent coaching adn they can work on other things given the "talent" level.

How much better do you think the team would be if they brought in another coach? Which coach and why them?