The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Mrb1p]

Perhaps reading & understanding should come before you type a reply to a post, or is that a bridge to far

I'm asking you to clarify in this very post

 

[Miller Time]

I'm asking you to clarify in this very post

Shifting the goal post

Description: Demanding from an opponent that he or she address more and more points after the initial counter-argument has been satisfied refusing to concede or accept the opponent’s argument.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Blabla. Cry. I’m telling it as it is. My opinion ya think? No, it’s reality. Face it.

This forum has turned into X with rage. I seldom come anymore because of posts like this. Stop being entitled, people! This team is young and lacks vet depth! Face it and deal with it, and your life will be much better. Mine is. Yours?

My expectations? 82 points. Are we going to achieve it? I still believe the team will. Man, they win three games and they’re back in the ‘race for 82’.

Kids!!!! We have a bunch of kids!!! No team wins with so many kids! None.
Mtl Media got y’all inflated.

I won’t change your opinion. I don’t give a f***. Actually, I’m a bit disappointed at myself for getting entangled in this puerile and infantile debate.

Now, I’ll leave you with this final word while I go whip myself on the buttocks for falling into this trap! f*** me.

What an insufferable post this is. Didn't bother reading anymore but I noticed some censored expletives

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

This forum has turned into X with rage.

It's definitely worst than it was in the past, but still can't hold a candle to the main board's toxicity and childish tribalism.

I seldom come anymore because of posts like this.

We miss you

 

[RealityBytes]

So you can ignore the chasm in our asset base in 2021-2022 and ignore that the prospects we picked won't be impacting the team until a few years.



Which started just two years ago



I would suggest something else needs a rebuild, but I don't wanna get an infraction.

Is that last line supposed to be some smart ass derogatory comment? As for the rest, those prospects may not be as great as their hype, it's a tough division, and it doesn't mean a rat's ass when the rebuild was supposed to have started whether in 2015 or 2023, it doesn't matter. It's the results of changes and additions to date that count. There is still a long way to go.

 

[salbutera]

Carey Price induced playoffs do not prove anything.

So let’s discount McDavid & MacKinnon induced playoffs..

 

[JoelWarlord]

Again I feel like so much of this discussion is just pointing out that the team is bad right now and then asserting that it means we should be deeply worried the rebuild is on a one-way trip to Sabresville because some arbitrary amount of time has passed so we "should" be better. IMO it doesn't really make sense to be so focused on these "progress" narratives instead of the actual names and players. Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Hutson have all been good and most of the struggling players outside of Dach are either bad vets who will be gone or young players who will either figure it out or be replaced. Dach is the main big question mark but IMO it's too early to declare his career at C over (and truly it's not like it's the worst outcome if he becomes a possession driving winger with size either)

I get that it's frustrating to sit through but rationally this seems like way too much of a sustained freakout because we look bad with 4-6 forwards dressed who will be here long term, Primeau (who is easily replaceable with any generic veteran backup) being atrocious, Savard/Dvorak/Armia playing like bad AHLers, and guys who are penciled in/project as #4-6D (Xhekaj, Struble, Barron) struggling with 100-150 career games each.

 

[417]

Lol

As long as you keep moving the goal post, hot takes can keep flaming away... No thinking or facts required!

Facts > Feelings

 

[dinodebino]

Good interview with André Tourigny on a MB podcast, where he mentions that their studies show that it takes normally between 8 to 11 years for a rebuilding team to be a contender. The anomally was the Blackhawks, he adds.

 

[Miller Time]

Good interview with André Tourigny on a MB podcast, where he mentions that their studies show that it takes normally between 8 to 11 years for a rebuilding team to be a contender. The anomally was the Blackhawks, he adds.

Did they specify what they consider the "starting point" of a rebuild?

 

[dinodebino]

Did they specify what they consider the "starting point" of a rebuild?

The moment they clean up and start building.

 

[HabsCode]

Good interview with André Tourigny on a MB podcast, where he mentions that their studies show that it takes normally between 8 to 11 years for a rebuilding team to be a contender. The anomally was the Blackhawks, he adds.

Did the study looked at how much time before a team started competing for a playoff spot, or just contender? And what was the criteria for being a contender?

And it goes without saying that they probably only focused on teams that had a successfully completed rebuild. It would also have been interesting to know the percentage of successful rebuild amongst all attempted rebuild.

 

[Miller Time]

The moment they clean up and start building.

That's a very curious methodology. Makes the "7-8 years" reference pretty meaningless.

 

[dinodebino]

That's a very curious methodology. Makes the "7-8 years" reference pretty meaningless.

He did not go deep in the methodology. He was trying to calm down expectations from Habs fans essentially. In his mind, Mtl has just started the process.

And my mistake, I said MB, but it was with Martin Lemay (which I don’t like much).

 

[HabsCode]

He did not go deep in the methodology. He was trying to calm down expectations from Habs fans essentially.

I see. Interesting none the less. The 8-10 years timeline aligns with what I taught.

I wish we had access to the study, it could help reduce the endless rebuild timeline debate that derives from the confusion.

There are many possible ways to define the 'starting point' of a rebuild. Is it the first trade of a veteran player, a high draft pick, or a change in general management? Each of these can impact the team’s trajectory differently, making it hard to set a single starting point.

Also, the model might not account for teams that have ups and downs during the rebuild. For instance, Tampa Bay made the playoffs and reached the Eastern Conference finals shortly after drafting Stamkos and Hedman, but then struggled again. Do these peak moments interrupt or extend the rebuild timeline? Without clear criteria, it’s hard to know how these variations fit into the overall analysis.

 

[dinodebino]

I see.

I really wish we had access to the study, it could help reduce the endless rebuild timeline debate that derives from the confusion.

There are many possible ways to define the 'starting point' of a rebuild. Is it the first trade of a veteran player, a high draft pick, or a change in general management? Each of these can impact the team’s trajectory differently, making it hard to set a single starting point.

Also, the model might not account for teams that have ups and downs during the rebuild. For instance, Tampa Bay made the playoffs and reached the Eastern Conference finals shortly after drafting Stamkos and Hedman, but then struggled again. Do these peak moments interrupt or extend the rebuild timeline? Without clear criteria, it’s hard to know how these variations fit into the overall analysis.

He mentioned that a rebuild starts with acquiring raw talent. In my mind, I would venture to say that the rebuild started the year the Habs went south and finished last.

 

[OnTheRun]

Good interview with André Tourigny on a MB podcast, where he mentions that their studies show that it takes normally between 8 to 11 years for a rebuilding team to be a contender. The anomally was the Blackhawks, he adds.

Imagine 8 to 10 years of sustained vertically linear progression, the SUPER NHL won't be able to handle us by year 12.

 

[dinodebino]

I see. Interesting none the less. The 8-10 years timeline aligns with what I taught.

I wish we had access to the study, it could help reduce the endless rebuild timeline debate that derives from the confusion.

There are many possible ways to define the 'starting point' of a rebuild. Is it the first trade of a veteran player, a high draft pick, or a change in general management? Each of these can impact the team’s trajectory differently, making it hard to set a single starting point.

Also, the model might not account for teams that have ups and downs during the rebuild. For instance, Tampa Bay made the playoffs and reached the Eastern Conference finals shortly after drafting Stamkos and Hedman, but then struggled again. Do these peak moments interrupt or extend the rebuild timeline? Without clear criteria, it’s hard to know how these variations fit into the overall analysis.

He counted Tampa as part of that 8-11 years window.

 

[Mrb1p]

Good interview with André Tourigny on a MB podcast, where he mentions that their studies show that it takes normally between 8 to 11 years for a rebuilding team to be a contender. The anomally was the Blackhawks, he adds.

Rebuild is very vague.

When people say this they don't talk about a rebuild plan but history of consecutive failure.

The Habs have been at that level since minimum 2018

 

[yianik]

I think we all hoped Dach would have had a better start. I think its premature to write the guy off, I mean give him the season. However, I came in thinking we needed to see him have a healthy season and put up 2C play and numbers. If he doesn't do that then Hughes has to look at adding a 2C, he can't wait for Dach for another year. Maybe all clicks when Laine comes back.

 

[Miller Time]

He did not go deep in the methodology. He was trying to calm down expectations from Habs fans essentially. In his mind, Mtl has just started the process.

And my mistake, I said MB, but it was with Martin Lemay (which I don’t like much).

Fair. It's a pretty reasonable time frame from the pov of drafting a cornerstone piece.

Arguably, the contention window of the Avs (Mackinnon), Panther (Barkov), & Bolts (Kucherov) really started 7-8 years after they were drafted...

Eichel won his Vegas cup 7 years post draft...

Bergeron won his Bs cup 7yrs post draft...

Tracks that core talent in their mid 20's prime is an important step in contending.


That's what's very exciting about what KH is building...

In 3yrs

Staf, CC, Suzuki, Guhle @ 23-28

All locked in at cap hits that will be massive bargains vs their impact

Demidov, Hutson, Reinbacher, Hage, Fowler @ 21-23

All on ELC is 1st rfa deals


And whatever we get out of Dach, Newhook, Barron, Strubble, Xhekaj, Kapanen, Heineman

& Roy, Mailloux, Beck, Mesar, Engstrom, Konyushkov, FloX, Tuch, Rohrer, Davidson, Koivu, Thorpe, Protz etc.

& 2025 draft class


This organization is putting together all the right pieces for a sustainable contention run... and showing patience through growing pains and a clear emphasis on development/building collectively from the ground up that is conducive to long term success.

Future is bright

Rebuild is very vague.

When people say this they don't talk about a rebuild plan but history of consecutive failure.

The Habs have been at that level since minimum 2018

Most organizations would consider a finals appearance closer to "success" than to "failure".

Your framing is every bit as "vague", and then wholly inconsistent with your application to the Habs situation "since 2018".

 

[JoelWarlord]

FWIW I don't even really think we need all that much more time for all the talk about 7-10 year rebuild timelines. Absent something unexpected like Suzuki and Guhle quitting hockey to join a monastery I'd approximately be pencilling in next season as the uh...."in the mix" year with the following season being a reasonable expectation of making the playoffs, and then future growth coming from Slafkovsky/Demidov/Reinbacher/Guhle maturing into their primes (alongside potentially another high pick this year) over the following seasons.

The FO has been setting up for multiple years to start making bigger moves this summer with Armia/Dvorak/Savard/Evans expiring (although I think we'll extend Evans) and more of the young players filtering into the lineup. I think they'll dump Anderson this summer as well. We'll probably keep Gallagher because we won't be cap-limited and he's still capable of being a solid 3rd liner while Anderson has no real fit on the team. I think they're going to take a swing on a right shot D and potentially a stopgap 2C if Dach doesn't show progress in the 2nd half at C. We'll also have a lot of money and obvious roster spots to raise the floor by replacing total slugs with good depth guys and we'll have Laine and Demidov on the opening night roster compared to this year's opening night team. Collectively I think that's a pretty big change with all the young players getting a year further into their careers as well.

 

[teamfirst]

8-11 years, wow, seriously hope that there will be some playoffs hockey during those years cuz if not Hugo wont be here to see the result of their rebuild that's for sure

 

[teamfirst]

Future is bright

Future is bright

Future may be bright but 8-11 years is a very long time

 

[Mrb1p]

Fair. It's a pretty reasonable time frame from the pov of drafting a cornerstone piece.

Arguably, the contention window of the Avs (Mackinnon), Panther (Barkov), & Bolts (Kucherov) really started 7-8 years after they were drafted...

Eichel won his Vegas cup 7 years post draft...

Bergeron won his Bs cup 7yrs post draft...

Tracks that core talent in their mid 20's prime is an important step in contending.


That's what's very exciting about what KH is building...

In 3yrs

Staf, CC, Suzuki, Guhle @ 23-28

All locked in at cap hits that will be massive bargains vs their impact

Demidov, Hutson, Reinbacher, Hage, Fowler @ 21-23

All on ELC is 1st rfa deals


And whatever we get out of Dach, Newhook, Barron, Strubble, Xhekaj, Kapanen, Heineman

& Roy, Mailloux, Beck, Mesar, Engstrom, Konyushkov, FloX, Tuch, Rohrer, Davidson, Koivu, Thorpe, Protz etc.

& 2025 draft class


This organization is putting together all the right pieces for a sustainable contention run... and showing patience through growing pains and a clear emphasis on development/building collectively from the ground up that is conducive to long term success.

Future is bright



Most organizations would consider a finals appearance closer to "success" than to "failure".

Your framing is every bit as "vague", and then wholly inconsistent with your application to the Habs situation "since 2018".

Most organization don't get to make the playoffs out of the 12th spot in their conference either.