Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[Canada4Gold]

Jays likely don't think much of him as they didn't even bother protecting him from rule 5 draft and still don't have him on the 40 man.

Kawasaki isn't really going to be used other than as a pinch run option and he is better defensively. Burns doesn't play SS/2B enough either.

Kawasaki better defensively? I know Burns is better at 3rd but from what I've heard he's a decent utility guy, is he really worse than Kawasaki? Because Kawasaki is brutal defensively, he has no range at all.

 

[theaub]

Knuckleballers always always always outperform their peripherals

If you don't think Dickey has been rock solid the past three months I question if you actually watch the team

Also Hutch has been really good his last three stars but before them he hadn't got into the 7th inning since June 6 (and he's had 7 starts of over 6 IP all year). Dickey has had 13 of those starts.

Hutch needs to work deeper into games for his peripherals to mean anything. Hopefully he's started doing so.

 

[Eyedea]

Jays likely don't think much of him as they didn't even bother protecting him from rule 5 draft and still don't have him on the 40 man.

Kawasaki isn't really going to be used other than as a pinch run option and he is better defensively. Burns doesn't play SS/2B enough either.

Sure he does. He's been a 2B/3B for Buffalo this season and was drafted as an SS (who still gets reps there). He profiles more as a 3B/Corner OF but he has average range at 2B and could be filler at SS (which is basically Kawasaki).

Despite him not hitting for any power this year I think he's still capable of doing so. He's been rather pedestrian since last year and his tools aren't spectacular but there's value in versatility and his plate discipline is right where you want it.

 

[mikebel111*]

As much as I love Hutchison, I trust Dickey in a playoff game much more than Drew and its not close for me

 

[91Kadri91*]

Dickey routinely outperforms him peripherals, and he's done it long enough now that we can consider it a skill.

Career ERA of 4.01, FIP of 4.34, and xFIP of 4.21. It's not uncommon for Dickey (and many other pitchers) to outperform their peripherals by half-a-run or so, but beyond that and a regression is (extremely) likely.

Outperforming you FIp by half a run can be a skill, and Dickey has been able to do it over a long sample.

He's currently (in the second half of the season) outperforming his xFIP by more than a run-and-a-half; that's not sustainable.

Weird that you posted the August ERA but not July and June, yet you posted all the FIp and xFIP stuff for the last 3 months. It's obvious you did it because he had a couple rough starts in August which he didn't have in July and June.

I left them out because they're not indicative of his true performance. His ERA in June and July is 3.32 and 2.57, which are each more than a run less than his FIP/xFIP.

When you leave out info for certain months and include everything for other months, and the stuff you leave out makes your argument worse it makes you look bad

Dickey hasn't pitched well, and any claims that he's pitched as well as we expected him to when we first acquired him are beyond asinine. He has produced less fWAR in his three seasons as a Toronto Blue Jay (4.6) than he did in the single season prior to being traded to Toronto (5.0). His ERA, FIP and xFIP in the second half of this season are at least half-a-run greater than they were in his Cy Young season (his xFIP is almost one-and-a-half runs greater). If we were expecting this level of pitching when we traded for Dickey, then the trade makes even less sense now than it did before (and it made very little sense at the time).

 

[Canada4Gold]

They don't have defensive stats like UZR and DRS int he minors so the best I can find at baseball reference is range factor per game(which I don't know what that is, I assume range in some capacity)

At 2nd Kawasaki is 4.15 with 110 chances with 2 errors, Burns is at 4.74 in 200 chances with 1 error.

With those very limited stats, I'd guess Burns is a better defensive 2nd baseman than Kawasaki.

Burns is at 5.14 at SS in a mere 38 chances, 2 errors. Played some 1st and 3rd, and Left and right as well.

In extremely limited chances in left(9 chances) he has a RF/G of 1.5, for reference Pompey is at 2.05 in left in 45 chances

 

[sparxx87]

Knuckleballers always always always outperform their peripherals

If you don't think Dickey has been rock solid the past three months I question if you actually watch the team.

This.

The first inning in Los Angeles, and a small part of his previous outing to that aside, he's been excellent. Those two or three innings skew his numbers significantly.

Stats can be very misleading without context.

 

[theaub]

I left them out because they're not indicative of his true performance.

ahahahaha this line alone killed me

Didn't even bother reading the rest of the post after it

 

[Canada4Gold]

Career ERA of 4.01, FIP of 4.34, and xFIP of 4.21. It's not uncommon for Dickey (and many other pitchers) to outperform their peripherals by half-a-run or so, but beyond that and a regression is (extremely) likely.



He's currently (in the second half of the season) outperforming his xFIP by more than a run-and-a-half; that's not sustainable.



I left them out because they're not indicative of his true performance. His ERA in June and July is 3.32 and 2.57, which are each more than a run less than his FIP/xFIP.



Dickey hasn't pitched well, and any claims that he's pitched as well as we expected him to when we first acquired him are beyond asinine. He has produced less fWAR in his three seasons as a Toronto Blue Jay (4.6) than he did in the single season prior to being traded to Toronto (5.0). His ERA, FIP and xFIP in the second half of this season are at least half-a-run greater than they were in his Cy Young season (his xFIP is almost one-and-a-half runs greater). If we were expecting this level of pitching when we traded for Dickey, then the trade makes even less sense now than it did before (and it made very little sense at the time).

Clearly you're having a different argument than me, I'm not discussing whether he was worth what we traded for him. that's be discussed to death.

He's been pitching well lately, and despite having slightly high peripherals he's been able to outperform them over his career(as much as one can, half a run), and he will be in the playoff rotation ahead of Hutch unless Hutch completely outperforms him by a mile the last month of the year.

Hutch has been unlucky this year, and his peripherals are good, but until he actually starts pitching like his peripherals suggest he should be, I'm not going into the playoffs hoping he's going to start doing it there. Last 3 starts have been good but he has to keep it up.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Kawasaki better defensively? I know Burns is better at 3rd but from what I've heard he's a decent utility guy, is he really worse than Kawasaki? Because Kawasaki is brutal defensively, he has no range at all.

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. Kawasaki isn't great defensively like Goins or Travis but I don't think he is brutal either, at least at 2B. I thought he was average to slightly above average at 2B previous season. He didn't look good defensively in the short time this season though.

Sure he does. He's been a 2B/3B for Buffalo this season and was drafted as an SS (who still gets reps there).

He's only played 7 games as a SS this season. Only 14 last season. I'd imagine if he was good defensively at 3B/2B, Jays would have at least put him on the 40 man roster.

 

[Longshot]

ahahahaha this line alone killed me

Didn't even bother reading the rest of the post after it

Would that be like saying: "EE's August isn't indicative of his true performance."?

 

[mikebel111*]

ahahahaha this line alone killed me

Didn't even bother reading the rest of the post after it

Its called leaving out info that doesnt support a narrative
The eye test shows me what basic stats show. Dickey last 3 months has been solid and reliable, while Drew has not been

 

[Constable]

who is this shapiro dude they just hired?

 

[Longshot]

who is this shapiro dude they just hired?

It's called Google. It's this neat new thing that lets you type in a guy's name and find out everything about him...

 

[theaub]

Would that be like saying: "EE's August isn't indicative of his true performance."?

Don't really want to single this argument out specifically, but the one thing that's held true of people who solely use FIP, xFIP and BABIP in arguments is that they generally don't even come close to using them correctly.

Dickey's peripherals are off because he's reverted to his Mets-era hard hit %. Considering he did it for a full 2.5 seasons before (second half of 2010-2012) I'm saying its just as possible it continues for two months as it doesn't.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Would that be like saying: "EE's August isn't indicative of his true performance."?

It's not, extremely high HR/FB rate, high BABIP, it's all been luck really. Pillar has had a much better month than EE he's just been unlucky that his HR/FB rate sucks and his BABIP is really low

 

[91Kadri91*]

ahahahaha this line alone killed me

Didn't even bother reading the rest of the post after it

That should have read 'abilities', not 'performance'.

My mistake.

 

[Daisy Jane]

who is this shapiro dude they just hired?

he was formerly the president (and formerly before that the general) manager of the Cleveland Indians. he's done a lot of stuff that helped re-shape the stadium there, and he is on good terms with the commish so that's some (v . basic) reasons of why he is our new president. knows both sides of the table (business/politics, and baseball). and seems like he could do some good in those areas.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Knuckleballers always always always outperform their peripherals

So did Matt Cain, until he didn't. Outperforming your peripherals (0.5 runs), and absolutely demolishing your peripherals (1.5 runs) are two completely different things.

If you don't think Dickey has been rock solid the past three months I question if you actually watch the team

That's original.

Also Hutch has been really good his last three stars but before them he hadn't got into the 7th inning since June 6 (and he's had 7 starts of over 6 IP all year). Dickey has had 13 of those starts.

Hutch needs to work deeper into games for his peripherals to mean anything. Hopefully he's started doing so.

That's not how it works. Hutch is not going deeper into games because he's been extremely unlucky, and his recent starts have caused a 'regression/progression to ability' for his ERA. Hutch's recent performances aren't repeatable over the long-term, but he's a much better pitcher, taking the entire season into consideration, than his current ERA indicates.

 

[Longshot]

Don't really want to single this argument out specifically, but the one thing that's held true of people who solely use FIP, xFIP and BABIP in arguments is that they generally don't even come close to using them correctly.

Dickey's peripherals are off because he's reverted to his Mets-era hard hit %. Considering he did it for a full 2.5 seasons before (second half of 2010-2012) I'm saying its just as possible it continues for two months as it doesn't.

I'm curious about all of this.

I like the more advanced stats and enjoy reading about them and looking at them. But, I can't say I'm intimately connected with them.

My impression is this: Dickey has pitched, really, really well since June. Then I see someone post that Dickey has essentially out-performed what should have been expected.

Which is fine. I look at stuff like that and think: "That's baseball." Before August, most of use would have argued that EE was having a below average year. Then he has this record setting month and suddenly his numbers are about where we expected.

But it makes me wonder, when he was really, really bad in April and May was he under-performing what was expected?

In other words, there's luck, there's bad luck and then there's pitching/playing to the level that was expected. I look at Dickey's overall numbers and figure he's about where I would expect him to be (maybe a little below, but with a month to go).

 

[theaub]

Yeah I'm going to ask the same original question to you again.

Hutch routinely has a terrible pitch count that forces him out of games in the 5th and 6th inning. There is a lot of value in eating innings that no stat besides IP can pick up.

 

[Canada4Gold]

he was formerly the president (and formerly before that the general) manager of the Cleveland Indians. he's done a lot of stuff that helped re-shape the stadium there, and he is on good terms with the commish so that's some (v . basic) reasons of why he is our new president. knows both sides of the table (business/politics, and baseball). and seems like he could do some good in those areas.

extremely good advanced stats guy apparently, whereas the only advanced stats Beeston knew was Cigars smoked/hour.

AA will still be in control(assuming he re-signs), but it'll be good to have another good baseball mind in there, who can explain things to Rogers as to why moves make sense, and can give advice to AA if needed.

 

[Eyedea]

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. Kawasaki isn't great defensively like Goins or Travis but I don't think he is brutal either, at least at 2B. I thought he was average to slightly above average at 2B previous season. He didn't look good defensively in the short time this season though.



He's only played 7 games as a SS this season. Only 14 last season. I'd imagine if he was good defensively at 3B/2B, Jays would have at least put him on the 40 man roster.

Possibly. I've seen unspectacular players come up through the Giants system time and time again only to end up being good major leaguers. Obviously Burns went unprotected, and I don't think I was the only person to be surprised when it happened. I still think he's someone on the radar though. Whether that's for the Jays or another organization, I don't know.

 

[habamillions]

When I think Shapiro I think moneyball same with Dombrowski

 

[Halladay]

Other than giving up Chris Archer for Mark Derosa, most of Shapiro's trades have been pretty good. Only got Carrasco and Brantley from the Lee and Sabathia trades, but but still decent trades.