Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[Longshot]

Question (and I'm being serious, this is not sarcasm): have Dickey's numbers shown up uptick since the team obviously improved its defense?

I mean, having Tulo at short over Reyes, Revere in left over whatever the crap was out there before he arrived and Smoak playing a lot more at first, plus Goins having a regular role at second has to help all the pitchers - not just Dickey.

I shouldn't just apply the question to Dickey. It would also apply to Hutch. Buehrle and Estrada seem to be the kind of pitchers that pitch the same regardless of the D.

 

[theaub]

I'm curious about all of this.

I like the more advanced stats and enjoy reading about them and looking at them. But, I can't say I'm intimately connected with them.

My impression is this: Dickey has pitched, really, really well since June. Then I see someone post that Dickey has essentially out-performed what should have been expected.

Which is fine. I look at stuff like that and think: "That's baseball." Before August, most of use would have argued that EE was having a below average year. Then he has this record setting month and suddenly his numbers are about where we expected.

But it makes me wonder, when he was really, really bad in April and May was he under-performing what was expected?

In other words, there's luck, there's bad luck and then there's pitching/playing to the level that was expected. I look at Dickey's overall numbers and figure he's about where I would expect him to be (maybe a little below, but with a month to go).

April-May: 2-5, 5.77 ERA, 5.69 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 26.3 hard hit %, 23.2 LD%
June-August: 7-5, 3.36 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 22.3 hard hit %, 18.6 LD%

So basically
- the biggest thing here - Dickey has given up a lot less hard hit balls and line drives (and since the ASB that hard hit rate is <20%). This matches up pretty well with the eye test...even when the Angels hit him around they barely hit anything on the button

- HR rate is the one thing that will likely regress from the past little bit, but RA has actually been unlucky on balls in play, especially considering his hard hit %. That should even out. But knuckleballs are historically EXTREMELY volatile with HR rates based on the nature of the pitch. Its impossible to predict really.

The fact that his xFIP is the same for both samples says it all about xFIP for knuckleballers really...

Question (and I'm being serious, this is not sarcasm): have Dickey's numbers shown up uptick since the team obviously improved its defense?

I mean, having Tulo at short over Reyes, Revere in left over whatever the crap was out there before he arrived and Smoak playing a lot more at first, plus Goins having a regular role at second has to help all the pitchers - not just Dickey.

I shouldn't just apply the question to Dickey. It would also apply to Hutch. Buehrle and Estrada seem to be the kind of pitchers that pitch the same regardless of the D.

His BABIP up to the trades was .262 and it has been .307 in his last six starts since (which as noted above, is extremely unlucky based on the lower hard hit contact and line drive rates).

But there is a definite correlation between the improved defence and the improved pitching overall.

 

[PJJ]

His FIP is still 4.70, one of the worst of any starter in MLB

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm curious about all of this.

I like the more advanced stats and enjoy reading about them and looking at them. But, I can't say I'm intimately connected with them.

My impression is this: Dickey has pitched, really, really well since June. Then I see someone post that Dickey has essentially out-performed what should have been expected.

Which is fine. I look at stuff like that and think: "That's baseball." Before August, most of use would have argued that EE was having a below average year. Then he has this record setting month and suddenly his numbers are about where we expected.

But it makes me wonder, when he was really, really bad in April and May was he under-performing what was expected?

In other words, there's luck, there's bad luck and then there's pitching/playing to the level that was expected. I look at Dickey's overall numbers and figure he's about where I would expect him to be (maybe a little below, but with a month to go).

before August EE was having a bad year, his line drive % has gotten better, less K's. BABIP was around his career norm. He was performing right around where he should have, which wasn't good.

He didn't suddenly get luckier. He got better.

The advanced stats suggest that Hutch has been the best pitcher the Jays have had this year. Even in June he was better than Dickey according to FIP and xFIP. July Dickey was better, Hutch had a bad month.

That being said, I'm not going to put him out there in front of Dickey in the playoffs and say well his luck has to turn around eventually. I'm going to have to see it before I believe it. There are reasons a pitcher's FIP are higher lower than their ERA, and I'm not going to trust that outright.

Those stats are great, but people tend to ignore everything else and say oh this guys been unlucky, he's great and that won't continue. I swear some people wouldn't be impressed after a no hitter because the pitcher had an unsustainable .000 BABIP, and a BB% that was too high. They help, but they're not the only thing.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Possibly. I've seen unspectacular players come up through the Giants system time and time again only to end up being good major leaguers. Obviously Burns went unprotected, and I don't think I was the only person to be surprised when it happened. I still think he's someone on the radar though. Whether that's for the Jays or another organization, I don't know.

Sure. I mean I was shocked that he wasn't protected because his bat is likely more than decent enough for a utility player and he plays a ton of position but the fact Jays chose to leave him off the 40 man and no one took him in Rule 5 leads me to believe he isn't good defensively -- at least at middle infield.

If he can play a good 3B or OF, I'm sure some teams out there could make use of that.

 

[Longshot]

April-May: 2-5, 5.77 ERA, 5.69 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 26.3 hard hit %, 23.2 LD%
June-August: 7-5, 3.36 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.79 xFIP, 22.3 hard hit %, 18.6 LD%

So basically
- the biggest thing here - Dickey has given up a lot less hard hit balls and line drives (and since the ASB that hard hit rate is <20%). This matches up pretty well with the eye test...even when the Angels hit him around they barely hit anything on the button

- HR rate is the one thing that will likely regress from the past little bit, but RA has actually been unlucky on balls in play, especially considering his hard hit %. That should even out. But knuckleballs are historically EXTREMELY volatile with HR rates based on the nature of the pitch. Its impossible to predict really.

The fact that his xFIP is the same for both samples says it all about xFIP for knuckleballers really...

How is FIP (which I understand) and xFIP (which I'm not overly familiar with) different?

I look at the numbers you provided and make the obvious conclusion: Dickey got off to a horrible start early in the year and then righted the ship and has pitched really well since (maybe a little better than expected, which might make sense based on the improved D behind him).

 

[theaub]

FIP uses the pitchers actual HR rate, xFIP regresses it to the league average (or 10% depending on what formula you use) based on the theory you can't control where fly balls are hit

 

[metafour]

Only got Carrasco and Brantley from the Lee and Sabathia trades, but but still decent trades.

Both Lee and Sabathia were half-season rentals when he traded them. The fact that he got two star caliber players in return for them is a huge coup. Shapiro's trade history is among the brightest in the league. He also got Kluber in the Jake Westbrook trade and Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard (a huge fleecing). His most notable move was obviously the Bartolo Colon trade which is regarding as one of the best moves in the modern era (Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips came in return).

 

[91Kadri91*]

My impression is this: Dickey has pitched, really, really well since June. Then I see someone post that Dickey has essentially out-performed what should have been expected.

Recently, yes.

Which is fine. I look at stuff like that and think: "That's baseball." Before August, most of use would have argued that EE was having a below average year. Then he has this record setting month and suddenly his numbers are about where we expected.

Yes, and that's what we should have expected (not all at once mind you).

But it makes me wonder, when he was really, really bad in April and May was he under-performing what was expected?

Yes, he was; his BABIP was 60 percentage points below his career average. July, as well, where he was hitting the ball very hard (36.2 Hard%), but had a BABIP below his career average (although he still managed a 122 wRC+ in July, and a 130 wRC+ in May).

In other words, there's luck, there's bad luck and then there's pitching/playing to the level that was expected. I look at Dickey's overall numbers and figure he's about where I would expect him to be (maybe a little below, but with a month to go).

His numbers (overall) are exactly where you'd expect them to be given his history, seasonal predictive statistics and batted ball profile, but that's not a good thing. He's produced a 1.1 fWAR, which is the lowest among qualified starters on the Blue Jays.

 

[Eyedea]

Other than giving up Chris Archer for Mark Derosa, most of Shapiro's trades have been pretty good. Only got Carrasco and Brantley from the Lee and Sabathia trades, but but still decent trades.

DeRosa wasn't bad though and they ended up flipping him for Perez who was an okay closer for a couple seasons. Obviously you would like to have that back but Archer was pretty far away from the majors at that point in time.

Westbrook for Kluber. Sizemore + Lee + Phillips for Colon. Coco Crisp for Chuck Finley. Choo for Ben Broussard. Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez. Masterson + Hagadone for VMart.

 

[theaub]

That being said, I'm not going to put him out there in front of Dickey in the playoffs and say well his luck has to turn around eventually. I'm going to have to see it before I believe it. There are reasons a pitcher's FIP are higher lower than their ERA, and I'm not going to trust that outright.

Those stats are great, but people tend to ignore everything else and say oh this guys been unlucky, he's great and that won't continue. I swear some people wouldn't be impressed after a no hitter because the pitcher had an unsustainable .000 BABIP, and a BB% that was too high. They help, but they're not the only thing.

My theory on advanced stats are pretty simple.

Advanced stats are fantastic for teams that we don't watch, because we don't see the ins and outs every night and on the whole they show a player or team's predicted future value a lot better than traditional stats.

If you're watching the Jays (or Leafs, or whoever) every night, I think the conclusions you come to as a fan are generally just as good if not better than the advanced stats. I always laugh when they show CORSI during a NHL playoff game like its something novel...how do you watch the game and not see what team is carrying the play?

 

[91Kadri91*]

FIP uses the pitchers actual HR rate, xFIP regresses it to the league average (or 10% depending on what formula you use) based on the theory you can't control where fly balls are hit

Which, in the long-term, is true (for home-runs at least).

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Greg Johns ‏@GregJohnsMLB 5m5 minutes ago
Austin Jackson traded to Cubs for player to be named and possible international slot.

Wow a little surprised but nice pick-up for the Cubs. He's regressed a lot though and probably a non-tender candidate in the off-season. He looked like a pretty nice player in his rookie season and had some good seasons in Detroit but he's really gone backwards since then. Hell of a move for Detroit to sell high on him and Smyly to get Price. Arguably got a better return for Price a year later too.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Question (and I'm being serious, this is not sarcasm): have Dickey's numbers shown up uptick since the team obviously improved its defense?

I mean, having Tulo at short over Reyes, Revere in left over whatever the crap was out there before he arrived and Smoak playing a lot more at first, plus Goins having a regular role at second has to help all the pitchers - not just Dickey.

I shouldn't just apply the question to Dickey. It would also apply to Hutch. Buehrle and Estrada seem to be the kind of pitchers that pitch the same regardless of the D.

the advanced stats like FIP and xFIP? Because those things don't chance with defence. They're fielding independant pitching, and expected fielding independant pitching.

FIP only factors in walks, strikeouts and homeruns, saying if a ball is put in play you can't control whether your defence makes the play or not. xFIP says you can't really control homeruns, just the number of fly balls you give up which normalizes your homeruns in FIP to the number you should have given up based on the number of fly balls you've allowed and the average league rate HR/FB.

You can control hits to a certain extent. Things like a lower line drive %, higher pop up and fly ball %, less hard contact %, more soft contact %. But all these things are defense independant.

The only real advanced stat that looks at defence is BABIP, which basically tells you whether you've been lucky or unlucky with regards to the balls that do get put in play, this chances with a better defence but isn't a stat to show how good a pitcher is but more how lucky they've been.

 

[sparxx87]

How is FIP (which I understand) and xFIP (which I'm not overly familiar with) different?

I look at the numbers you provided and make the obvious conclusion: Dickey got off to a horrible start early in the year and then righted the ship and has pitched really well since (maybe a little better than expected, which might make sense based on the improved D behind him).

It was late May-early June that Pete Walker noticed a subtle difference in his delivery from that of his Mets days. Since early June he's been around 3 ERA. The defensive improvements may have helped his past few starts, but he was pitching very well long before the trades were made.

 

[Longshot]

before August EE was having a bad year, his line drive % has gotten better, less K's. BABIP was around his career norm. He was performing right around where he should have, which wasn't good.

He didn't suddenly get luckier. He got better.

The advanced stats suggest that Hutch has been the best pitcher the Jays have had this year. Even in June he was better than Dickey according to FIP and xFIP. July Dickey was better, Hutch had a bad month.

That being said, I'm not going to put him out there in front of Dickey in the playoffs and say well his luck has to turn around eventually. I'm going to have to see it before I believe it. There are reasons a pitcher's FIP are higher lower than their ERA, and I'm not going to trust that outright.

Those stats are great, but people tend to ignore everything else and say oh this guys been unlucky, he's great and that won't continue. I swear some people wouldn't be impressed after a no hitter because the pitcher had an unsustainable .000 BABIP, and a BB% that was too high. They help, but they're not the only thing.

That's where I shake my head with some of this stuff. I'm not saying Hutch hasn't been better than Dickey. And I'm not saying that he hasn't had bad luck, but to say he's been better than Buehrle this year (which is what you're suggesting there) and even Estrada? Come on. Those two have been consistent week after week, where Hutch has been consistently up and down.

But that's where my question about the team's defense comes in. Have Hutch and Dickey been more affected by the bad D early in the year than Estrada and Buehrle?

EE's stuff, I get. The logical conclusion for what happened with EE is this: he had some sort of injury that limited his performance and over time it healed and he heated up.

 

[Halladay]

Both Lee and Sabathia were half-season rentals when he traded them. The fact that he got two star caliber players in return for them is a huge coup. Shapiro's trade history is among the brightest in the league. He also got Kluber in the Jake Westbrook trade and Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard (a huge fleecing). His most notable move was obviously the Bartolo Colon trade which is regarding as one of the best moves in the modern era (Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips came in return).

Lee had 1.5 years left. He really fleeced The Expos for Colon . Also Carlos Santana for Casey Blake was a good move. He has made many good moves through trades. But the Tribe other than a few years in the middle 2000's have struggled for the most part. This is a good move though.

 

[metafour]

But the Tribe other than a few years in the middle 2000's have struggled for the most part.

They've struggled because they've been a bottom-5 payroll team for most of those years. Right when they'd show promise, they'd have to re-tool by trading away star players who weren't going to sign with the Indians long term. Even today, despite being 26th in payroll they still have a very strong collection of controllable impact talent (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Brantley, Kipnis, Lindor, Gomes) that will have them competitive for years.

 

[theaub]

Which, in the long-term, is true (for home-runs at least).

To an extent. A pitcher that consistently gives up more hard hit balls will logically give up more homers.

 

[Canada4Gold]

That's where I shake my head with some of this stuff. I'm not saying Hutch hasn't been better than Dickey. And I'm not saying that he hasn't had bad luck, but to say he's been better than Buehrle this year (which is what you're suggesting there) and even Estrada? Come on. Those two have been consistent week after week, where Hutch has been consistently up and down.

But that's where my question about the team's defense comes in. Have Hutch and Dickey been more affected by the bad D early in the year than Estrada and Buehrle?

EE's stuff, I get. The logical conclusion for what happened with EE is this: he had some sort of injury that limited his performance and over time it healed and he heated up.

you're looking at defense too much. FIP and xFIP suggest a hard line drive double down the line given up by Hutch is the same as a weak ground ball back to the pitcher given up by Buehrle.

That's not defense, that's just placement of where the ball went. And over time this suggest that this will even out, and over time 2 pitchers will give up the same percentage of hits of balls they put in play.

Now Buehrle has also been able to outperform his FIP and xFIP over his career, by .31 and .4. If you drop his FIP and xFIP that amount his FIP is basically equal to Hutch's this year and xFIP has been better.

Estrada I think is being extremely lucky this year. His HR rate this year is much much much less than previously. I don't want to go near him in the offseason. Whoever signs him will regret it very quickly.

But in theory Hutch has been unlucky, if the same percentage of balls he has put in play went for outs as the other guys his ERA would be the best on the staff(ignoring Price, considering Buehle's abilities to outperform him FIP/xFIP, say he'd be tied with Hutch). Its kind of hard to believe someone can be that unlucky and one would suggest it's because he's leaving meatballs in the zone but his hard contact% is right around Buehrles, though his line drive % is more. Hutch's soft contact % is much better than Buehrle or Dickey.

In conclusion Hutch has been really unlucky, his batted ball profile might be a little to blame, but it's more luck than meatballs down the middle imo.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Paul Beeston, president of the Toronto Blue Jays, joins Prime Time Sports to discuss his successor Mark Shapiro, the future of Alex Anthopoulos, and the popularity of the Blue Jays.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Paul-Beeston-with-Jeff-Blair-pts-20150831-Interview.mp3

 

[Longshot]

Recently, yes.



Yes, and that's what we should have expected (not all at once mind you).



Yes, he was; his BABIP was 60 percentage points below his career average. July, as well, where he was hitting the ball very hard (36.2 Hard%), but had a BABIP below his career average (although he still managed a 122 wRC+ in July, and a 130 wRC+ in May).



His numbers (overall) are exactly where you'd expect them to be given his history, seasonal predictive statistics and batted ball profile, but that's not a good thing. He's produced a 1.1 fWAR, which is the lowest among qualified starters on the Blue Jays.

My April/May comments were about Dickey, not EE.

And, I'm confused by your overall message. Are you saying Dickey sucks, no matter what. Or are you just saying that Dickey has been worse than Hutch this year - regardless of his recent performance?

Sometimes I see your posts and think you are making absolute statements that don't ring true. As in: "Dickey sucks, 100%, I don't care about how he has pitched recently."

When what you might actually be saying is: "When you compare the two, Hutch has been better than Dickey."

I would guess most fans would see Dickey's season about the same as me: In April and May: "What happened?" And since: "Much better."

 

[91Kadri91*]

To an extent. A pitcher that consistently gives up more hard hit balls will logically give up more homers.

In the short-term yes, but, much like HR/FB rate, hard-hit rate will regress to the mean (for pitchers).

But I had no idea what to make of those things. If a guy has an extremely high Hard Hit%, what does that mean? Should we expect regression? Should we expect it to continue? And what does that mean for fantasy value?

Some very cursory research suggests that the answer depends on whether you are talking about a hitter or a pitcher. A number of us at Rotographs – Alex Chamberlain, Eno Sarris, and myself, to be exact, looked for evidence of whether giving up hard/soft contact or creating hard/soft contact was a skill.

There is more research to be done – particularly looking at stabilization rates within season. But our first look was at year-over-year correlation. Those of you who frequent this data-heavy corner of the nets will know that if something is a skill, we expect to see a high YoY correlation. If pitcher X is really, really good at making guys hit the ball weakly, he should still be good at that the next year and the year after, in general.

But that is not what we see. All of us found very low YoY correlations for pitchers. Specifically, Alex found a correlation of .25 YoY for Hard Hit% using 2002-2014 data.

So what that tells us is that if you see a pitcher generally throwing well (high K%-BB% for example) but with a sky-high HH%, that solid contact is likely not his fault and will regress to the mean.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/buy-or-sell-on-hard-hit/

A brief summary of the results from that: hard-hit rate seems to be a skill for batters, but not so much for pitchers.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-hard-hit-rate-means-for-batters/

 

[Mach85]

Possibly. I've seen unspectacular players come up through the Giants system time and time again only to end up being good major leaguers. Obviously Burns went unprotected, and I don't think I was the only person to be surprised when it happened. I still think he's someone on the radar though. Whether that's for the Jays or another organization, I don't know.

I feel like the Giants have their best development coaches at the major league level, which is different. Belt, Panik, Duffy, etc. all perform much better than their minor league lines indicated.

 

[Eyedea]

I feel like the Giants have their best development coaches at the major league level, which is different. Belt, Panik, Duffy, etc. all perform much better than their minor league lines indicated.

I think that's usually the case with every organization. The minors is a learning experience for both staff and players.