Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[p.l.f.]

They'll have to rid of that 5 yrs max policy for him then

 

[TheOtherSide]

They'll have to rid of that 5 yrs max policy for him then

If they win the world series this year, I would almost rather walk away. I really wouldn't want to have to dislike the guy after he had helped the team win a championship.

Having what could very well be a useless pitcher to us taking up a large portion of the budget scares the crap out of me.

I know every case is different, but at some point everyone starts breaking down, and for ball players it seems to usually be in the mid 30's. Just take a look at Doc's nosedive from his age 33 to 34 seasons, and then another sharp decline from his 34 to 35 years.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Maybe front load a 6 year deal?

 

[Silver91]

Meh. I dont put people on ignore unless they talk 100% nonsense. Some of your points are valid. Honestly Tulo probably should be hitting #5, however we are 21-5 with him leading off, so why change whats working. Plus despite his unlucky stretch, who do you want in a clutch situation? Easily Tulo. He would get the most AB and again he is one of our best hitters. If we start losing sure but right now you hope Tulo good contact starts falling for hits. I am not worried about it. Tulo will be fine

Something that's been lost in all this move Tulo down talk...how many times has it seemed that Tulo has come to bat in the 9th and the game is close. You move him down and put Revere there, it's Revere coming up to bat in an important situation where you'd rather have Tulo at the dish.

Outside of the 1st inning, you can look at the line-up as

Revere
Tulo
Donaldson
Bautista
Edwin
Cola/Smoak
Martin/Navarro
Pillar
Goins

Which is pretty much what all these "put Revere leadoff" people are clamouring for.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Something that's been lost in all this move Tulo down talk...how many times has it seemed that Tulo has come to bat in the 9th and the game is close. You move him down and put Revere there, it's Revere coming up to bat in an important situation where you'd rather have Tulo at the dish.

Outside of the 1st inning, you can look at the line-up as

Revere
Tulo
Donaldson
Bautista
Edwin
Cola/Smoak
Martin/Navarro
Pillar
Goins

Which is pretty much what all these "put Revere leadoff" people are clamouring for.

Well, right now Revere is hot. Maybe we could have used some of his hits in Tulo's spot. Or maybe not, we were still 6-2 on the road trip.

 

[calcal798]

If they win the world series this year, I would almost rather walk away. I really wouldn't want to have to dislike the guy after he had helped the team win a championship.

Having what could very well be a useless pitcher to us taking up a large portion of the budget scares the crap out of me.

I know every case is different, but at some point everyone starts breaking down, and for ball players it seems to usually be in the mid 30's. Just take a look at Doc's nosedive from his age 33 to 34 seasons, and then another sharp decline from his 34 to 35 years.

CC Sabathia, whom I would consider a pitcher that is at the tailend of his career and his goods days are over, is at 2959 IP at the age of 35 with about 14 years in the majors. Price is at 1403 IP at 30 with 7 years in the majors. Because of that large discrepancy in innings pitched to regular aces (because he came from college) at this point in his career (which is rare for a front line starter) it supports the reasoning of opening up the wallet for him because one would expect he will have a lot more innings to pitch before he breaks down.

You could reasonably expect that if you sign him to a 7 year contract, you would get 1200 + innings or so out of him and at least 20 WAR over that span (likely way higher with 3-4 seasons of 4 + WAR) which would be more then enough for me to sign the guy.

This isn't a 30 year old Justin Verlander/Zach Greinke/Felix Hernandez that has already pitched 2000 innings in the majors.

 

[Eb]

By the way part of the David Price interview in SN Magazine, Price says he would come back.

Exact quote "It’s been awesome being here. I would definitely come back here if everything worked out the way we envisioned it.

If the Jays go on a long playoff run and Rogers opens up the vault and can come close or hit what he's asking for, he'll be back.

That is such a prototypical response.

 

[Woodman19]

No way Donaldson gets $12M unless its the first year of an extension

I'd be stunned if he cracks $10M

I agree. I simply calculated a 7% increase per year on the base 6.9 to Pence in 2014 and rounded up based on Donaldsons mvp like season to over estimate it.

 

[Woodman19]

I know I'm in the minority here. But I would rather allocate $30 million around a few above average arms on far less term than on Price. No one can forsee the future and relying on one guy to stay healthy and effective for 7+ years is to big a gamble for a team that will always have a budget.

Besides if you took Price out of the picture but have everyone else in place (Revere, Tulo, Hawkins and Lowe ) from day 1, this team is not a .500 team at the all star break and doesn't need the ace to vault us back in contention.

 

[theaub]

Meh

If there's one guy I'm dropping the $$$ on, its a bonafide ace who has (comparably) limited mileage on him and has never suffered a serious injury. Also he sells the tickets, which helps deal with the budget issue (yes I know winning also sells but Price helps a lot more with than than Gallardo+Leake as well).

 

[BayStreetBully]

By the way part of the David Price interview in SN Magazine, Price says he would come back.

Exact quote "It’s been awesome being here. I would definitely come back here if everything worked out the way we envisioned it.

If the Jays go on a long playoff run and Rogers opens up the vault and can come close or hit what he's asking for, he'll be back.

That was such an embarrassing interview and reeks of insecurity. She asked the same question in part 1 of that interview as well. What is the point of asking twice if you already know you can't get a straight answer? What does it accomplish other than making Price uncomfortable?

If we keep winning ball games and keep filling the seats, and Rogers is willing to pay him the cash, we have as good a chance as anyone. If the money or the wins isn't there, we don't have a chance. It's not complicated.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I agree. I simply calculated a 7% increase per year on the base 6.9 to Pence in 2014 and rounded up based on Donaldsons mvp like season to over estimate it.

Safer to build an over estimation into that arb outcome. May as well plan for $10-12, and then when it comes under, bank the savings into the budget moving forward.

 

[Discoverer]

So...

Once again...

The guy is struggling hard with the most fearsome batting trio in the majors padding him.

How is this not a tell-tale sign that the guy is absolutely lost at the plate?

How much time are we going to give him to figure it out in the most important month in 20 years?

Historically, he's been a superstar offensively and Revere has been just below league average. So I assume this opinion is based PURELY on Tulo's struggles lately. You may want to keep in mind that Tulo has a 91 wRC+ since coming to the Jays and Revere has a 90 wRC+.

So at this point, I can only assume you're basing it on their most recent performance, where Revere has an outstanding 200 wRC+ over the last week and Tulo has a very poor 70.


I'm really struggling to figure out why you think a week's data is enough to throw out everything we know about both players and make this kind of decision.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I'm of the mind that I'd rather pay Price than two of the mid tier starters. I'll take the quality, and the potential for one bad contract down the road than the quantity and potential for two bad contracts down the road.

Honestly, the only two free agent starters I'd be in on are Price and Samardzija; and would only check down to Samardzija when I've exhausted every effort to sign Price.

 

[Gargyn]

I'm of the mind that I'd rather pay Price than two of the mid tier starters. I'll take the quality, and the potential for one bad contract down the road than the quantity and potential for two bad contracts down the road.

Honestly, the only two free agent starters I'd be in on are Price and Samardzija; and would only check down to Samardzija when I've exhausted every effort to sign Price.

Not Kazmir? I'd take Kazmir over Sam. Also 're-sign Estrada. First choice is Price.

Price
Stroman
Estrada
Sanchez
Hutchison

 

[hoglund]

This team can only hit when they're already winning, no one can hit in the clutch, I'm done with this crappy team. How many fans have jumped off the bandwagon.

 

[one77]

Do all we can to keep Price here. Every winning team needs a clear bonafide proven #1 ace. I would re-sign Estrada as well. Great, above-average middle of the rotation guy. Would also look to re-sign Buerhle on a good deal if he's into it.

Price
Stroman
Buerhle
Estrada
Hutchison

Sanchez, Osuna, Hendriks, Lowe (if re-signed), Cecil, etc.

Travis 2B
Tulowitzki SS
Donaldson 3B
Bautista RF
Encarnacion DH
Martin C
Smoak 1B
Pillar CF
Revere LF

Pompey, Goins, Colabello, backup C

 

[hoglund]

Do all we can to keep Price here. Every winning team needs a clear bonafide proven #1 ace. I would re-sign Estrada as well. Great, above-average middle of the rotation guy. Would also look to re-sign Buerhle on a good deal if he's into it.

Price
Stroman
Buerhle
Estrada
Hutchison

Sanchez, Osuna, Hendriks, Lowe (if re-signed), Cecil, etc.

Travis 2B
Tulowitzki SS
Donaldson 3B
Bautista RF
Encarnacion DH
Martin C
Smoak 1B
Pillar CF
Revere LF

Pompey, Goins, Colabello, backup C

Price is a proven ace, but Stoman will likely be next year's ace.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Anthony Alford returned to action last night after being out of the lineup for a week.

went 2 for 3 with a triple, 2 walks, 2 rbis, 2 runs, and a stolen base.

The next Lorenzo Cain.

 

[Woodman19]

I'm of the mind that I'd rather pay Price than two of the mid tier starters. I'll take the quality, and the potential for one bad contract down the road than the quantity and potential for two bad contracts down the road.

Honestly, the only two free agent starters I'd be in on are Price and Samardzija; and would only check down to Samardzija when I've exhausted every effort to sign Price.

I'll take Samardzjia at $100 million over Price for $200

 

[theaub]

I would much, much rather have Price at 7/200 than Samardzjia at 5/100

Because (in addition to the fact the AA has managed to get out of every 'bad' contract with relative ease)

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-toronto-blue-jays-playoff-hopes/?ex_cid=story-twitter

 

[WTFMAN99]

Price is a proven ace, but Stoman will likely be next year's ace.

We can have 2 aces

 

[frost king]

Historically, he's been a superstar offensively and Revere has been just below league average. So I assume this opinion is based PURELY on Tulo's struggles lately. You may want to keep in mind that Tulo has a 91 wRC+ since coming to the Jays and Revere has a 90 wRC+.

So at this point, I can only assume you're basing it on their most recent performance, where Revere has an outstanding 200 wRC+ over the last week and Tulo has a very poor 70.


I'm really struggling to figure out why you think a week's data is enough to throw out everything we know about both players and make this kind of decision.

He is like most fans, and strictly basing it on batting average. A double that Revere hits has less value than a double that Tulowitzki hits. Most fans can't see the difference.

 

[Daisy Jane]

We can have 2 aces

we can have three i don' think there is an ace limit in baseball

 

[one77]

Anthony Alford returned to action last night after being out of the lineup for a week.

went 2 for 3 with a triple, 2 walks, 2 rbis, 2 runs, and a stolen base.

The next Lorenzo Cain.

Yup. I think Alford is our best prospect. Has elite potential. I give it 2 years and he'll be in the lineup replacing Revere. Pompey also stepping in maybe replacing Pillar.