Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[Canada4Gold]

I haven't seen someone say so much without providing an ounce of statistical proof or proper analysis in some time.

you must not have read the GDT today then. The part about when to hit and run

 

[Muston Atthews]

I'm actually really enjoying laying the wood on you.

Something about someone stumbling out of their element, armed with nothing but their opinion and a hot take, and gently explaining to them laugh that they have no proof with freshman level Statistics doctrine just puts a smile on my face.

This is what bothers me about bandwagoners. It's fine to cheer for the team, be upset when they're doing bad and be ecstatic when they're doing good. But don't tell people who have been watching baseball/ the jays for years that your opinion trumps theirs. Seems to be a lot of people doing that.

----

Anyways. If the team goes into a slide I think you'll see Tulo moved in the line up. There's no need to make any changes after going 6-2 against two wild card teams chasing us and 20-5 over the last 25 or something like that.

 

[sparxx87]

Whats more likely, hitting in the #1 spot is causing Tulowitzki to perform average offensively for a small sample size OR that Tulowitzki is getting used to facing guys he would normally see once every other year or so and doesn't have a read on their stuff like he would other NL pitchers?

I think it's a little bit of both. Definitely still adjusting to new situation, but I feel like he takes a lot of good pitches that he might not otherwise if he's in the middle of the order. It seems he's trying to take a lot of pitches, when I think he should be more aggressive. He's a good hitter, but he's gotta swing the bat.

 

[Muston Atthews]

If "proper analysis" leads you to believe Tulo is an acceptable leadoff hitter for the Blue Jays right now, then clearly I'm on the right track.

Someone want to post the small sample size video ?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Come on DJQ, your 5 years of insightful and analytical posting is no match for someones gut feeling without any explanation.

You Woodrow, I'll never complain about the Jays winning, but this whole "Phil Kessels fat n stuff" level analysis it's attracted from the Leaf board is tiring.

 

[Woodman19]

This is what bothers me about bandwagoners. It's fine to cheer for the team, be upset when they're doing bad and be ecstatic when they're doing good. But don't tell people who have been watching baseball/ the jays for years that your opinion trumps theirs. Seems to be a lot of people doing that.

----

Anyways. If the team goes into a slide I think you'll see Tulo moved in the line up. There's no need to make any changes after going 6-2 against two wild card teams chasing us and 20-5 over the last 25 or something like that.

Thats what I love about all this. While posting on message boards is hardly a qualifier for any sort of knowledge, it does at least show that some people at least followed baseball before it was the new "fad" in town and it stands to reason that those people are more likely to have an intricate knowledge of the game that you can't learn by listening to Buck, McCown and Griffin for 2 weeks (who are also all 20 years out of touch).

I often wonder if this is what happened when a long time ago some crazy Hipsters came up with the idea of using a Radar gun or track box scores to gather some information that took away from the "feel" of the game of going at it at the seat of their pants.

 

[Bomber0104]

I think it's a little bit of both. Definitely still adjusting to new situation, but I feel like he takes a lot of good pitches that he might not otherwise if he's in the middle of the order. It seems he's trying to take a lot of pitches, when I think he should be more aggressive. He's a good hitter, but he's gotta swing the bat.

No doubt he's taking quality pitches (particularly fastballs).

Couldn't be because the best trio of hitters in the MLB are up after him, though.

Must be something else...

Small sample size or something like that.

 

[p.l.f.]

these Twins can hit
Sano is a monster

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

It's not knee jerk? I've been consistent in saying I don't think he should be there for a month now? I don't think he's mentally weak, but I think a shake up might ignite him.

What are you talking about honest? I honestly think if I was calling the shots I'd switch it up right now. I'm of the opinion that the lineup could and should sometimes be altered based on hot streaks... We may have different philosophies, but nothing I said was nonsensical.

I haven't seen anyone take more good fastballs in recent memory then Tulo. Maybe he just isn't feeling it, I don't know.. I'm still learning the player, just as a lot of us are. But in my opinion, a little more aggressive approach may help him shake his slump, and putting him in the middle of the order might influence that.

Understandable. I apologize for my gruff tone earlier. Misdirected.

He's had periods of struggle and in between-ness (tm) like this before. There's no doubt he's having a tough time and is most certainly mired in a cold streak. There's just little correlation between the spot on the order and the trend, imo.

He'll shake out of it, regardless of where he's hitting. I understand the strategy behind your thinking, and it's natural to want to move him to spark him.

 

[trellaine201]

what do you guys think of in future teams decide on a 6 man rotation due injuries etc.

Think i heard this on some broadcast the other day. Assuming it was based on injuries to pitchers.

 

[TootooTrain]

You Woodrow, I'll never complain about the Jays winning, but this whole "Phil Kessels fat n stuff" level analysis it's attracted from the Leaf board is tiring.

It's best to just push that stuff aside and move on. Create enough attention like the jays have and your bound to attract a few flies.

 

[sparxx87]

Understandable. I apologize for my gruff tone earlier. Misdirected.

He's had periods of struggle and in between-ness (tm) like this before. There's no doubt he's having a tough time and is most certainly mired in a cold streak. There's just little correlation between the spot on the order and the trend, imo.

He'll shake out of it, regardless of where he's hitting. I understand the strategy behind your thinking, and it's natural to want to move him to spark him.

In most instances, yeah.. But I think having the 3 big guys behind him has teams pitching him differently.. If he stays in the 1 hole, I wanna see him more aggressive. He's getting a lot more to hit then I think he ever did in Colorado and hasn't adjusted yet. The unfamiliar pitchers definitely play a role as well.

I can't speak for others, but I'm still getting to know him as a player. I've got a better pulse on guys like Bautista and Edwin who I've watched closely for years... The Rockies are probably one of my least watched teams.... So I guess you're fair in challenging me on the thought that he's taking a different approach, but mentally weak is the last thing I'd ever accuse Tulo of. From what I've seen, he's one of the most focused and intense competitors out there.

 

[Woodman19]

I figured this could get some more Jays talk going by looking forward to the salary structure of the team going forward to those wondering.

I am sure I missed some guys on the 40 man but they shouldn't amount to much in terms of dollar value.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Totally forgot about Izturis

 

[TootooTrain]

Totally forgot about Izturis

And Romero. Thought we got someone to pay it off for us, or atleast partially in a deal. Maybe that was just a dream. A wonderful dream.

 

[The Nemesis]

Which is exactly what I said two posts ago...if you have actually been reading along.



So...

Once again...

The guy is struggling hard with the most fearsome batting trio in the majors padding him.

How is this not a tell-tale sign that the guy is absolutely lost at the plate?

How much time are we going to give him to figure it out in the most important month in 20 years?

Lineup protection is bunk. At best its impact is minor, at worst it's completely and totally irrelevant. Players and managers certainly believe it exists and say that they do on occasion consider who's on deck when pitching to someone, but years of actual data on real results would seem to indicate that whatever people think about the existence of protection, it doesn't really do much of anything. Which is also summed up in a quote that Josh Donaldson gave to Fangraphs when they inquired with a bunch of players and managers about the topic: "If you’ve been around a little bit, people are going to pitch to you the way they’re going to pitch to you."

As was said, Tulowitzki was also in a lengthy slump before coming to Toronto. A slump in which he was batting 2nd or 3rd in the Rockies lineup. He's also now facing a bunch of pitchers that he doesn't have a book on because he's in the AL for the first time in his career.

So I ask, what is more likely as a reason for this slump in a Jays uniform: 1) that it is a continuation of a slump that pre-dated the trade and is magnified by the fact that he is facing unfamiliar pitchers? or 2) that he has some sort of extreme mental aversion to a #1 being next to his name on the lineup card?

Tulowitzki himself has also said that the leadoff thing doesn't matter. that it isn't effecting his play or performance one bit and that the slump is just something he has to (and will) work himself out of. In the absence of any better, real evidence, I'm inclined to believe him.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I remember when a .500 road trip was considered a success, now they are routinely winning on the road. It's a different team, man! Even though Jays lost today, it's a 6-2 road trip!

 

[Bomber0104]

Lineup protection is bunk. At best its impact is minor, at worst it's completely and totally irrelevant.

[.......]

.

If lineup protection is bunk, then I suppose you believe pitching around players is also bunk and non-existent too, right?

I apologize in advance for stopping you at your first two sentences but it really is important to settle the larger philosophy before zeroing in specific players and how they fit into the batting order.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Don't know if you guys seen this or not yet...

http://music.cbc.ca/#!/blogs/2015/8...-2015-to-Johnny-Cashs-Gods-Gonna-Cut-You-Down

 

[SDig14]

Is there somewhere that shows how many times Tulo has even lead off an inning other than to start the game in the 25 or so games he's been a Jay?

Beyond the first inning I just want all my good hitters in one sequence, don't really care where it is.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

Is there somewhere that shows how many times Tulo has even lead off an inning other than to start the game in the 25 or so games he's been a Jay?

Beyond the first inning I just want all my good hitters in one sequence, don't really care where it is.

From what I can find...going into today Tulo has led off 41 innings. Rever has led off 28 innings.

 

[TootooTrain]

Don't know if you guys seen this or not yet...

http://music.cbc.ca/#!/blogs/2015/8...-2015-to-Johnny-Cashs-Gods-Gonna-Cut-You-Down

Bravo.

[linked for convenience]

 

[calcal798]

I figured this could get some more Jays talk going by looking forward to the salary structure of the team going forward to those wondering.

I am sure I missed some guys on the 40 man but they shouldn't amount to much in terms of dollar value.

You're forgetting Price at 30 M$ per for the next 7 years

 

[The Nemesis]

If lineup protection is bunk, then I suppose you believe pitching around players is also bunk and non-existent too, right?

I apologize in advance for stopping you at your first two sentences but it really is important to settle the larger philosophy before zeroing in specific players and how they fit into the batting order.

No, I don't think that. And it's a ridiculous leap to make. Pitching around a batter has obvious evidence for it (walks and intentional walks). Protection doesn't have that. That's the biggest problem. There is nothing out there to suggest that who you have on deck impacts the performance of the player at the plate in a positive manner (the "if I have a feared hitter behind me, I'll see more fastballs/pitches in the zone in an effort to get me out before he comes up" belief that is at the heart of protection as a theory.)

And perhaps that is where I misspoke. I'm not saying that the pitcher might not behave differently depending on who's up. We can't know that for certain one way or another until we start getting pitcher commentary with each game or psychic broadcasts. What I was getting at was the idea that what is believed to be protection impacts performance.

In other words, while protection might or might not change how a pitcher attacks Tulowitzki, what matters is whether or not the results Tulowitzki gets different results because of protection. And the evidence thus far is that he wouldn't.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-lineup-protection-look-like/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/pitching-around-batters/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14010

http://fpbaseballoutsider.blogspot.ca/2012/08/the-myth-of-lineup-protection.html

http://www.Sabrenomics.com/Sabrenomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

http://thebrewersbar.com/2013-articles/the-protection-myth.html

That's just a handful of links I dragged up in a couple minutes with google. "protection" might afford a batter a few more walks or cause few more strikeouts as pitchers are more aggressive or passive, but even if the batter gets "better pitches to hit" historical evidence seems to show that he won't do anything more with them than he will in any other situation.

So in the regard of Tulowitzki failing to make the most of getting "padded" by Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion, I respectfully disagree. He's struggling probably because he was struggling before, and possibly because he's facing unfamiliar pitchers which shifts the edge toward them. But there's no strong evidence that we should look at Tulowitzki's slump any worse because of who bats behind him.

 

[UNB Bruins Fan]

I figured this could get some more Jays talk going by looking forward to the salary structure of the team going forward to those wondering.

I am sure I missed some guys on the 40 man but they shouldn't amount to much in terms of dollar value.

They really are in quite good shape salary-wise for next year. Kind of funny to say but they are in an enviable position of having some of their worst players making decent money...but in the final year of their contract. Not only that, some of their biggest questions might be able to filled in house (Pompey for the OF, Sanchez/Osuna to the rotation).

- I noticed Hutchison isn't listed on here.

- Of course, pretty much everything they do this offseason will depend on the Price situation...hopefully it doesn't drag on so long that it hinders them from making other moves

- You can easily use the money spent on Romero/Izturis/Navarro/Penington to find upgrades.

- Even if Buehrle comes back there is no way he is making anything close to 19M.

- If they pick up Dickey's option it isn't anything more than this year so there wouldn't be any increase there.

- Tulo makes less per year than Reyes (albeit over more years).

- Obviously Donaldson/Martin will eat up a decent amount of the freed up money.

- Estrada will command more to bring back. I would consider it if he doesn't want anything too crazy in terms of either dollars or years. He will probably be looking to cash in though given his age....might be better to let another team make that mistake. However, if his asking price gets out of hand maybe they just plug Sanchez/Osuna into that rotation spot...or they could even see if there are any FA that are similar but can be had for cheaper.

- I would try and bring back Lowe and maybe you can get Hawkins back on a reasonable one year deal (unless he is planning on retiring??).

- Actually, I would try and bring back pretty much the entire bullpen if possible. That will also depend on what they decide to do with Osuna/Sanchez though.

- I'm thinking they are going to have to choose one of Revere/Saunders going forward. That could be a tough choice...Saunders is probably the better player when healthy but Rever is more durable. For a team that might be on a strict budget I don't know if I would want to take a chance on giving Saunders 4M or whatever he gets given his injury history. I would be more comfortable giving it to someone who you can rely on, even if he might be the inferior player.

- It will be interesting to see how Pompey figures into everything as well.