Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[Andy]

Can we take the Gallagher talk to another thread please.

 

[Skip Bayless]

He also can't make a pass for the life of him , never liked the guy because of that . He encompasses perfectly the identity of the habs in the 21st century , try hard middle 6 players with minimum puck skills

The Trevor Timmins special

 

[Wateredgarden]

When people were saying he would be scoring garbage goals and be a a guy that would score 25g-30a in a good season, I was asking myself if they watched his games. He did things that other players couldn't do, he was clearly going to be a skilled player. Yes he was struggling, but he had pretty good skills flashes.

 

[417]

A few months back I got into this twitter back and forth with Marc Dumont about Slafkovsky…he was going on and on and posted his player card that said he was tracking to be “the next Jason Weimer”.

So I challenged him on it, he got personal…so I responded in kind, he blocked me lol

Would love see what his fancy player cards are telling him he's tracking towards now lol

Sorry but that guy is a clown.

 

[WeThreeKings]

A few months back I got into this twitter back and forth with Marc Dumont about Slafkovsky…he was going on and on and posted his player card that said he was tracking to be “the next Jason Weimer”.

So I challenged him on it, he got personal…so I responded in kind, he blocked me lol

Would love see what his fancy player cards are telling him he's tracking towards now lol

Sorry but that guy is a clown.

Those analytics only guys are tough to deal with.

Scott Wheeler is another nerd that won't accept he's wrong that his spreadsheet doesn't capture everything.

 

[HabsMD97]

A few months back I got into this twitter back and forth with Marc Dumont about Slafkovsky…he was going on and on and posted his player card that said he was tracking to be “the next Jason Weimer”.

So I challenged him on it, he got personal…so I responded in kind, he blocked me lol

Would love see what his fancy player cards are telling him he's tracking towards now lol

Sorry but that guy is a clown.

he says he tries to play devil's advocate, except doing that back then would have meant that he should have actually backed slafkovsky. He also notoriously hates current management since the org fired him, he's extremely vindictive. Says they're not too different from the bergevin old school mentality except every actionable move they've done says otherwise lmao.

Those analytics only guys are tough to deal with.

Scott Wheeler is another nerd that won't accept he's wrong that his spreadsheet doesn't capture everything.

Wheeler isn't an analytics guy though he's your typical internet scout that falls head over heals over every 5'3 pure skill guy. You don't need to even watch his rankings since it's always obvious ahead of time what it will be.

 

[417]

Those analytics only guys are tough to deal with.

Scott Wheeler is another nerd that won't accept he's wrong that his spreadsheet doesn't capture everything.

This guy told me I didn’t understand the game because I dared challenge his lame ass player model.

Like you cover the Montreal Canadiens, but you can’t handle being challenged on your takes?

Just a weird scene, he’s lucky he’s blocked me because I’d be lighting his ass up right now…a dude who got canned from his dream job covering his childhood team should be more humble.

 

[JoelWarlord]

A few months back I got into this twitter back and forth with Marc Dumont about Slafkovsky…he was going on and on and posted his player card that said he was tracking to be “the next Jason Weimer”.

So I challenged him on it, he got personal…so I responded in kind, he blocked me lol

Would love see what his fancy player cards are telling him he's tracking towards now lol

Sorry but that guy is a clown.

Those prospect cards are so f***ing funny to me. Literally just hockeydb points scouting with a rudimentary age/NHLe model slapped on but it gets presented as this sophisticated analytical model.

Funniest part is that "star" is defined as 0.45 PPG for a dman. Tyson Barrie = star, prime Vlasic or a guy like Slavin = not a star apparently.

 

[le_sean]

Byron Bader is another one that just sticks to his analytics.

The problem is if their model didn’t turn out accurate, the model isn’t the problem, it’s simply that the player is an exceptional case. There really isn’t a learning process to it.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Those analytics only guys are tough to deal with.

Scott Wheeler is another nerd that won't accept he's wrong that his spreadsheet doesn't capture everything.

Scott Wheeler isn't really a analytics guy. There's not really much to his analysis that involves data, its almost all observational.

Dumont is pro data, but its not really high level analysis.

The truth is Slafkovsky's analytics were brutal. But he also looked lost on the ice frequently too, which is why there was so much "bust" and "rush" talk. Frankly, some analytic guys early in the season were pointing out that despite Slafkovsky having awful on-ice impacts, there was evidence of growth because his transition numbers, chance assists and other measures of positive involvement were well up.

Like, one of the more popular player card posters posted this in December:



I still wish some people here paid more attention to analytics on here, if for no other reason that it frames just how far the team has to go to be competitive and helps identify what the team is actually doing well and what it isn't.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Byron Bader is another one that just sticks to his analytics.

The problem is if their model didn’t turn out accurate, the model isn’t the problem, it’s simply that the player is an exceptional case. There really isn’t a learning process to it.

Byron Bader specifically just uses NHLe Models. And I'm not sure if he's well versed in NHLe or if he's just making infographics. One observation of people modelling NHL equivalencies are that the vale of production in most other leagues relative to the NHL has been going down save for the NCAA. And anecdotally I think that may have more to do with NCAA becoming a more popular route to the NHL for top prospects than anything else.

 

[the valiant effort]

Bader “analyzes” HockeyDB and Eliteprospects. It’s insanity

 

[le_sean]

Byron Bader specifically just uses NHLe Models. And I'm not sure if he's well versed in NHLe or if he's just making infographics. One observation of people modelling NHL equivalencies are that the vale of production in most other leagues relative to the NHL has been going down save for the NCAA. And anecdotally I think that may have more to do with NCAA becoming a more popular route to the NHL for top prospects than anything else.

I question if he’s adjusted his model to the diminished quality of the KHL. All of the Russian guys have huge projections, but the league is far weaker than what it used to be.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Byron Bader is another one that just sticks to his analytics.

The problem is if their model didn’t turn out accurate, the model isn’t the problem, it’s simply that the player is an exceptional case. There really isn’t a learning process to it.

Oh yeah 100%, we're already seeing that with Slafkovsky where it's getting treated like some absolute bolt from the blue that an ultra toolsy 6'3 230lb skilled forward has progressed while he's still a teenager.

The thing about Slafkovsky too is that it's not even like he was some wild crazy pick just from a statwatching perspective, it's just that for whatever reason everyone decided that half of his games didn't count. 10 points in 31 Liiga games was all that got discussed, when in reality his numbers were 33P in 64 games between Liiga/Playoffs/Worlds/Olympics during that season.

He went first overall based on a 29P in 43 game stretch from the Olympics in February through the Worlds in May, but only a handful of those games show up in the regular season point totals that dominated discussion about this player and go into the calculations for the NHLe models.

Like, one of the more popular player card posters posted this in December:

I still wish some people here paid more attention to analytics on here, if for no other reason that it frames just how far the team has to go to be competitive and helps identify what the team is actually doing well and what it isn't.

There are analytics and then there are Byron Bader charts though.

There is absolutely value in the xG and microstat based metrics used to evaluate NHL players using NHL data, and in the team-based metrics used for the NHL, but these Byron Bader charts are literally just regular season points and an adjustment for age/NHLe. They're barely any more useful than just looking up the raw points and a player's birthday on hockeydb.

 

[TesseractPrice]

Those analytics only guys are tough to deal with.

Scott Wheeler is another nerd that won't accept he's wrong that his spreadsheet doesn't capture everything.

It feels like the gap between pro and amateur scouting has been widening these past few years. The best advanced stats models are clearly proprietary paid for ones because some of the public ones we see on twitter are downright amateurish stuff

For example, Byron Bader ahead of the 2022 draft tweeted about Cutter Gauthier having scored 50 goals that season; except Gauthier had only scored 34... Bader was taking the data for his model from eliteprospect and hadn't realized that the NTDP stats line encompassed the USHL one and had summed them. Nevermind the flaws of this model, every single one of his reports on NTDP prospects had been based on misrepresented and misunderstood data, that's like, hilariously embarassing from someone who claims to be a pro. Now every time I see stuff from him, I can't even trust if the data he shows is actually right

Goals and assists are not good enough of a basis to build a predictive model on, no matter how fancy it is. The constantly and rapidly evolving landscape in junior and pro leagues and their relative strength also makes comparing players who graduated from the same league even like 10 years apart a very limited exercice

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Another way to calculate it......



I'm not the only one calling him a unicorn!!!!

His parabolic growth is turning me into an upside down unicorn if you’re picking up what I’m laying down.

 

[BergevinBurner]

His parabolic growth is turning me into an upside down unicorn if you’re picking up what I’m laying down.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Scott Wheeler isn't really a analytics guy. There's not really much to his analysis that involves data, its almost all observational.

Dumont is pro data, but its not really high level analysis.

The truth is Slafkovsky's analytics were brutal. But he also looked lost on the ice frequently too, which is why there was so much "bust" and "rush" talk. Frankly, some analytic guys early in the season were pointing out that despite Slafkovsky having awful on-ice impacts, there was evidence of growth because his transition numbers, chance assists and other measures of positive involvement were well up.

Like, one of the more popular player card posters posted this in December:



I still wish some people here paid more attention to analytics on here, if for no other reason that it frames just how far the team has to go to be competitive and helps identify what the team is actually doing well and what it isn't.

He might not be as analytical as the other guys but he's still very much a glorified arm chair scout. He scouts by points and refuses to accept that being physical, having size, etc. has value.. so he will always prefer the small european putting up a billion points in J20 to a 6'2 guy without a whole lot of points playing in a men's league.

 

[cphabs]

His last goal, the deflection, was in his mind, and he did it without a high stick…
He’s f***ing 19…

 

[417]

he says he tries to play devil's advocate, except doing that back then would have meant that he should have actually backed slafkovsky. He also notoriously hates current management since the org fired him, he's extremely vindictive. Says they're not too different from the bergevin old school mentality except every actionable move they've done says otherwise lmao.

I didn’t have an issue with him not backing Slafkovsky, nor have I ever had an issue with anyone not doing so.

But he was acting like the sky was falling back in November and December, making ridiculous claims about how he was doomed to fail and have a similar career arc to Jason Weimer (a player i remember, I found that notion completely ridiculous and I let him know it).

But if you’re going to be a public figure that covers the team and make reactionary takes, than be ready to be challenged and don’t hide behind blocking people, especially when you’re the one attacking people personally.

What a lame, sorry if he has any fans here and if he posts here (I think he did at some point), well…

 

[417]

Scott Wheeler isn't really a analytics guy. There's not really much to his analysis that involves data, its almost all observational.

Dumont is pro data, but its not really high level analysis.

The truth is Slafkovsky's analytics were brutal. But he also looked lost on the ice frequently too, which is why there was so much "bust" and "rush" talk. Frankly, some analytic guys early in the season were pointing out that despite Slafkovsky having awful on-ice impacts, there was evidence of growth because his transition numbers, chance assists and other measures of positive involvement were well up.

Like, one of the more popular player card posters posted this in December:



I still wish some people here paid more attention to analytics on here, if for no other reason that it frames just how far the team has to go to be competitive and helps identify what the team is actually doing well and what it isn't.

You didn’t /don’t have to be an analytics guy to have observed that.

And these player models are a snapshot in time, they provide bird’s eye view of what a player has accomplished so far and what impact it has on the ice, but it can’t predict things that are unpredictable and development is very much predictable.

analytics are a cool, I’ve got no issues with them, it’s information and information isn’t bad…it’s people who try to act like that information is gospel and infallible.

That’s when I roll my eyes.

 

[Cournoyer12]

The Infectious Kid is all class and sinew

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

This guy told me I didn’t understand the game because I dared challenge his lame ass player model.

Like you cover the Montreal Canadiens, but you can’t handle being challenged on your takes?

Just a weird scene, he’s lucky he’s blocked me because I’d be lighting his ass up right now…a dude who got canned from his dream job covering his childhood team should be more humble.

Is Dumont the internet video analytics guy who did videos on Habs players before he got that job? Like he was Dave St. Louis before Dave was on the scene. Is that the guy?

 

[austin316]

I really wish he would impose himself more physically on the forecheck and punish players into the boards.

 

[Cournoyer12]

Give that kid a lacrosse stick!!!!