There may not be a center available with more red flags attached to him than Chandler Stephenson. If the 30-year-old center really does get over $6 million as Evolving Hockey is forecasting, my condolences go out to the fans of that franchise. The model has him worth closer to $4 million — even less if he doesn’t get top power-play time.
Stephenson’s claim to fame is that he is very fast, a skill set he parlayed toward becoming one of the NHL’s best zone entry players. In 2022-23, his 78 percent controlled entry rate was among the league’s very best.
This year, he created two fewer entries per 60 and also entered with control just 56 percent of the time. It’s a big step back that’s likely a partial factor of reduced foot speed. Thanks to NHL Edge tracking data, we know that three seasons ago, Stephenson’s top speed was 23.3 miles per hour and he had 330 speed bursts above 20 miles per hour. Last season, that dropped to 22.4 and 217 respectively. Still fast, but clearly losing a step.
That’s to be expected of a 30-year-old, but the issue is his game hasn’t adapted. On a strong Vegas team, Stephenson managed only 46 percent of the expected goals last season and 49 percent of the goals. Both were among the worst marks on the team with much of the issue stemming from defensive inability. The Golden Knights allowed 0.58 more expected goals against per 60 with Stephenson on the ice this season.
Offensively, his scoring also took a big hit, with his five-on-five points per 60 dropping from 2.34 in 2022-23 to 1.66 last season. That his scoring-chance assist rate dropped heavily from 4.7 (93rd percentile) to 2.3 (38th percentile) last season is troubling.
The biggest reason to be a Stephenson skeptic, though, is the Mark Stone of it all. Since arriving in Vegas, the duo has shared the ice a lot — to only Stephenson’s benefit. Over the last three years, the duo has played 1,370 minutes together, earning 57 percent of the goals and 52 percent of the expected goals. In 1,875 minutes without Stone, Stephenson is at 50 percent and 48 percent. In 496 minutes without Stephenson, Stone is at 60 percent in both goals and expected goals. His numbers go down next to Stephenson, with the most sizeable drop this past season. Stone had some of the worst on-ice numbers of his career and they were entirely in the minutes shared with Stephenson.
All of this might just be a down year for Stephenson who was legitimately great in 2022-23, especially in the playoffs. But the issues under the hood, the drop in foot speed and the numbers without Stone all point to a player who will likely struggle to live up to a big-money deal outside of Vegas. Unless he’s put in another extremely advantageous role, he’s closer to average than a bona fide top-six center.
