The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[MOGlLNY]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798005202924281875

This guy is so full of shit....... but imagine if he isn't?

 

[Fjordy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798005202924281875

This guy is so full of shit....... but imagine if he isn't?

Something big like Robinson or Stillman?

 

[Der Jaeger]

But I don't see Ottawa pulling the trigger on that offer for an in division trade.

I think you would need to swap Levi for UPL (I figure they'd want a more NHL ready goalie) and Samuelsson for Power or Byram.

Again, would absolutely love Brady on the Sabres, especially since Botts was apparently trying to trade up to get him in the draft but I have little to no faith the Sens would make a deal with us.

I think the deal proposed wasn't enough.

I looked at the Eichel deal broken down this way:

Roster player, top 6 or top 4 capable.
Top prospect
1st round pick
2nd round pick

I came up with Peterka, Kulich, 2025 1st, and Jokiharju (substituted for the 2nd).

I'd make that deal. It's a lot, but Ottawa is going to ask for a lot. I'd give Levi if they asked for a substitute for any of the pieces aside from the 2nd. I'd also substitute Rosen for any of the pieces if asked.

-----------
Make that deal.
Buyout Skinner.

Here's the roster headed into free agency and the draft (don't pick apart the lines, it's just for accounting and mostly based off last season):

Tkachuk - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Benson
Greenway - Krebs - xxx
xxx - xxx - xxx

Power - Dahlin
Byrum - Samuelsson
Johnson - Clifton

UPL, Levi

Go get some short term free agents for the bottom 6, blend in Savoie, and get better coaching from Ruff. Maybe make a trade for Colton or Jeannot to add more grit, if you can get a team up against the cap to make a move.

 

[Aladyyn]

I think the deal proposed wasn't enough.

I looked at the Eichel deal broken down this way:

Roster player, top 6 or top 4 capable.
Top prospect
1st round pick
2nd round pick

I came up with Peterka, Kulich, 2025 1st, and Jokiharju (substituted for the 2nd).

I'd make that deal. It's a lot, but Ottawa is going to ask for a lot. I'd give Levi if they asked for a substitute for any of the pieces aside from the 2nd. I'd also substitute Rosen for any of the pieces if asked.

-----------
Make that deal.
Buyout Skinner.

Here's the roster headed into free agency and the draft (don't pick apart the lines, it's just for accounting and mostly based off last season):

Tkachuk - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Benson
Greenway - Krebs - xxx
xxx - xxx - xxx

Power - Dahlin
Byrum - Samuelsson
Johnson - Clifton

UPL, Levi

Go get some short term free agents for the bottom 6, blend in Savoie, and get better coaching from Ruff. Maybe make a trade for Colton or Jeannot to add more grit, if you can get a team up against the cap to make a move.

That is a slowwwwwwwww set of wingers

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

I think the deal proposed wasn't enough.

I looked at the Eichel deal broken down this way:

Roster player, top 6 or top 4 capable.
Top prospect
1st round pick
2nd round pick

I came up with Peterka, Kulich, 2025 1st, and Jokiharju (substituted for the 2nd).

I'd make that deal. It's a lot, but Ottawa is going to ask for a lot. I'd give Levi if they asked for a substitute for any of the pieces aside from the 2nd. I'd also substitute Rosen for any of the pieces if asked.

-----------
Make that deal.
Buyout Skinner.

Here's the roster headed into free agency and the draft (don't pick apart the lines, it's just for accounting and mostly based off last season):

Tkachuk - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Benson
Greenway - Krebs - xxx
xxx - xxx - xxx

Power - Dahlin
Byrum - Samuelsson
Johnson - Clifton

UPL, Levi

Go get some short term free agents for the bottom 6, blend in Savoie, and get better coaching from Ruff. Maybe make a trade for Colton or Jeannot to add more grit, if you can get a team up against the cap to make a move.

Brady is not as good as Eichel or at a position of premium value. That trade is more than the Eichel trade and prob more than Matthew got traded for which is nuts. Quinn scores basically at the same rate as him - is extra physicality with all the rest of those pieces?? if you’re going to trade those pieces… Imagine how many other crucial pieces we could get that would help the team as a whole much more than one player

 

[Beerz]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798005202924281875

This guy is so full of shit....... but imagine if he isn't?

Ole Bob is hit or miss... I wouldn't completely dismiss him. (Or at least he used to be.. I haven't caught any of his content in a long time)

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798005202924281875

This guy is so full of shit....... but imagine if he isn't?

I'm on the edge of my seat...falling off from nodding off...

 

[Fjordy]

Brady is not as good as Eichel or at a position of premium value. That trade is more than the Eichel trade and prob more than Matthew got traded for which is nuts. Quinn scores basically at the same rate as him - is extra physicality with all the rest of those pieces?? if you’re going to trade those pieces… Imagine how many other crucial pieces we could get that would help the team as a whole much more than one player

Well, it depends on how you look at it. Tkachuk Jr. is one of the most physical players in the league and he plays on the first line, which is a rarity. He is 24 years old, has a adequate contract, in recent seasons he has scored 83 and 75 points respectively, and he is injury-free (Eichel was seriously injured then and had injury-plagued seasons before that). I think he is a pretty unique player and he can still grow and improve. I would consider trading him if he were available. Something like Peterka + 11 + Jokiharju would be fine with me.

 

[BFLO]

Where is the rebuild thread? I'm joking. Just bitter. I think we know a week after free agency how serious the Sabres are this year.

We'll know the first day of free agency

The big lesson people should have learned from the playoffs is that the roster isn't the problem and in large part really has never been THE problem. The problem has been the organizational incompetence and in particular the horrible coaching and coaching. The Sabres haven't had a single competent professional coach since, well, Lindy.

The roster is also a problem, and it's not really that they haven't had enough talent on the roster, it's a matter of age. We've been the youngest or at our oldest bottom 5 youngest every season of the drought. You can't win in this league trotting out a bunch of prospects. This is not a development league and the Sabres have treated it as such for over a decade.

We spend years and years developing players on our NHL roster and then trade them away or let them walk as soon as they hit their prime. And they go on to be stars elsewhere.

You can't win with a roster made up of mostly under 25 year olds. And you can't win when you let all of your good players go as soon as they turn 25+. We're like Leonardo DiCaprio, but for our roster instead of dating. 25 plus? Too old for us!

 

[Der Jaeger]

That is a slowwwwwwwww set of wingers

Florida isn't exactly speedy in their top 6. Tampa was never that fast in their top 6.

Get some speed on the bottom 6 to balance it out.

Savoie is fast and could also help.

Brady is not as good as Eichel or at a position of premium value. That trade is more than the Eichel trade and prob more than Matthew got traded for which is nuts. Quinn scores basically at the same rate as him - is extra physicality with all the rest of those pieces?? if you’re going to trade those pieces… Imagine how many other crucial pieces we could get that would help the team as a whole much more than one player

Tuch vs Peterka. Tuch was more established, but Peterka has more growth potential. I don't see Peterka as valued more than Tuch.

Krebs vs. Kulich. When the trade was made, Krebs was a former 1st (higher pick than Kulich), who was supposed to go top 10 if not for an injury. He came back and scored 43 points in 24 games in the WHL and was a ppg player in the world juniors. He also had 6 points in his first five AHL games. In the season he was traded, he has 9 NHL games (no points) and 5 assists in 2 AHL games.

Kulich went directly to the AHL post draft and had 46 points in 62 games his first year, and 45 points in 57 games this season.

So Kulich is the superior prospect, but we can't compare Krebs now to Kulich now. It's got to be Krebs at the time of the trade. And the difference isn't so great as we see now.

1st = 1st

2nd vs. Jokiharju. Would the Sabres get more in a trade for Jokiharju as an RFA than a 2nd?

So as I see the deal:

Tuch > Peterka
Kulich < Krebs
1st = 1st
2nd = Jokiharju

Eichel was hurt so his value was down. A non-hurt, non-trade demanding Eichel probably gets more.

And if we're just comparing Quinn's scoring to Tkachuk's scoring as raw data, then you're missing the boat. The way they score matters. The Sabres are allergic to the crease in the offensive zone and have little grit in their play across the roster. You don't trade for Brady Tkachuk for raw numbers. You're trading for his style of play.

 

[TehDoak]

Capitals at 5on5 with Ovechkin on the ice: -20 goal differential
Sabres at 5on5 with Skinner on the ice: +9 goal differential

You're looking for issues that don't exist, the reason we didn't make the playoffs was because our powerplay was completely non-functional and that was like 90% coaching issue.

We missed the playoffs by 7 pts

Our PP was 16.59% on 223 opportunities

The median PP was 21.5%

We scored 37 PPG

If we scored at the median rate, we would have had 48 PPG.

I'm not sure 11 more goals bridges the gap. It should also be noted we had the 3rd least amount of power play opportunities

We missed the playoffs because:

The offense was easy to shut down.
They didn't play well in the hard games
Had to ride UPL too hard because Comrie sucked.
And the power play sucked.

We'll know the first day of free agency

The roster is also a problem, and it's not really that they haven't had enough talent on the roster, it's a matter of age. We've been the youngest or at our oldest bottom 5 youngest every season of the drought. You can't win in this league trotting out a bunch of prospects. This is not a development league and the Sabres have treated it as such for over a decade.

We spend years and years developing players on our NHL roster and then trade them away or let them walk as soon as they hit their prime. And they go on to be stars elsewhere.

You can't win with a roster made up of mostly under 25 year olds. And you can't win when you let all of your good players go as soon as they turn 25+. We're like Leonardo DiCaprio, but for our roster instead of dating. 25 plus? Too old for us!

It's a bit of a "chicken or egg" scenario at this point. Players want to leave because we don't win. Players won't come here because we don't win. The Sabres have to start winning, and winning consistently for the cycle to stop.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

We missed the playoffs by 7 pts

Our PP was 16.59% on 223 opportunities

The median PP was 21.5%

We scored 37 PPG

If we scored at the median rate, we would have had 48 PPG.

I'm not sure 11 more goals bridges the gap. It should also be noted we had the 3rd least amount of power play opportunities

We missed the playoffs because:

The offense was easy to shut down.
They didn't play well in the hard games
Had to ride UPL too hard because Comrie sucked.
And the power play sucked.



It's a bit of a "chicken or egg" scenario at this point. Players want to leave because we don't win. Players won't come here because we don't win. The Sabres have to start winning, and winning consistently for the cycle to stop.

If the PP is slightly above average, they make the playoffs. But it's on management. The PP sucked in the second half of 2022-23 and they did nothing. A major problem is entries and that's coaching but we have no one who can take a faceoff and we loss tons of possession time because of it.

 

[Chainshot]

If the PP is slightly above average, they make the playoffs. But it's on management. The PP sucked in the second half of 2022-23 and they did nothing. A major problem is entries and that's coaching but we have no one who can take a faceoff and we loss tons of possession time because of it.

They are also anemic when on puck retrieval on shoot-ins, both power play and ES. Chicken shits, encouraged to play without contact, will not win battles.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Is the team better with Skinner on it or without him?

There is an argument to be made that it would be better without him. The lines work better. You don't have to force him high ozone starts to keep him productive. He's a poor example of 3 zone play and work ethic even though he's the most veteran forward on the team. And, I think it's safe to say that him and Ruff simply aren't going to work.

Consider it:

Saves 7.5M this year, 4.5M next year, 2.6M. The real cost is the 3 trailing years of 2.44M.

But, when you realize the trailing years will likely have close to 100M of cap, it becomes a no brainer.

It's not a question of SHOULD they buy out Skinner, it's a clear yes. The buyout is really more of a question of organizational competence and financial commitment. Both of which have been in short supply since 2020.

Having cap room is never a "no brainer" unless you are a bottom feeder like Buffalo that hasn't cared to spend. Teams trade away firsts for cap room.

Your assumption is Skinner is worth nothing. That is just nonsense. He is a good five-on-five player who draws penalties and is more positive than negative. He needs to be with someone with defensive responsibility, like Jochen Hecht.

There are a lot of questions. We save $7.5 M in cap this year (which we won't even use), but in the following two years, we save half and only one-third. And your toss away that $2.444 M of cap for three years is meaningless... only meaningless if Pegula continues to not allow Sabres to spend to max.

Anyway, there is almost ZERO chance Skinner is bought out this year. My guess is maybe in last year of his deal. Big maybe.

They are also anemic when on puck retrieval on shoot-ins, both power play and ES. Chicken shits, encouraged to play without contact, will not win battles.

That's true which is also why zone entries are so tough. Everyone stacks blue line against Buffalo. Zero in-game adjustments to this. Once they get possession, Sabres can be elite on PP but their actual time with possession is very low. (And we won't address guys going to front of net. Benson was one of few guys. He's 18 and 150 pounds.)

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Zemgus has already sold his house (so it is unlikely to stay)

Thompson
Cozens
3C
Krebs

Right. But - once again - you shouldn't be so fixated on numbering the lines.

Krebs should be centering the more offensive / easy matchup line while any new acquisition needs to be more of a shut down type imo. That role might be seen as more of a '4C' by many - particularly if you're in the habit of numbering the lines so rigidly.

 

[Fjordy]

Right. But - once again - you shouldn't be so fixated on numbering the lines.

Krebs should be centering the more offensive / easy matchup line while any new acquisition needs to be more of a shut down type imo. That role might be seen as more of a '4C' by many - particularly if you're in the habit of numbering the lines so rigidly.

This matters because 3C needs to get 3C ice-time. Krebs needs to focus on his game first and foremost, he can always move up the lineup if he plays well.

 

[Gras]

 

[TageGod]

Right. But - once again - you shouldn't be so fixated on numbering the lines.

Krebs should be centering the more offensive / easy matchup line while any new acquisition needs to be more of a shut down type imo. That role might be seen as more of a '4C' by many - particularly if you're in the habit of numbering the lines so rigidly.

Third line is typically the players I would send over the board when McDavid comes out. I want defensively sound players who can limit offense and still produce. I don't want Tage out against McDavid his line will not have the advantage. All I can say is I really don't want that to be Krebs. TBH i just feel Krebs is the obvious player to move on from, not that concerned about the rigidity of lines. Numbering works for the overarching season and ranking players, but we all know lines change.

 

[Dingo44]

Third line is typically the players I would send over the board when McDavid comes out. I want defensively sound players who can limit offense and still produce. I don't want Tage out against McDavid his line will not have the advantage. All I can say is I really don't want that to be Krebs. TBH i just feel Krebs is the obvious player to move on from, not that concerned about the rigidity of lines. Numbering works for the overarching season and ranking players, but we all know lines change.

Based on what Ruff has said I am betting it's going to be Cozens' line primarily playing against the McDavid's and Matthews' of the league.

 

[Fjordy]

Based on what Ruff has said I am betting it's going to be Cozens' line primarily playing against the McDavid's and Matthews' of the league.

Nope, this will be a line Skinner - Krebs - xxxx

 

[BFLO]

It's a bit of a "chicken or egg" scenario at this point. Players want to leave because we don't win. Players won't come here because we don't win. The Sabres have to start winning, and winning consistently for the cycle to stop.

Good players don't want to play on a prospect development team.

 

[Jacob582]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798005202924281875

This guy is so full of shit....... but imagine if he isn't?

I'm addicted to this tweet. I have to keep coming back to read it.

Second thought I'm having: didn't he say the same exact thing about the Sabres a couple years ago?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The big lesson people should have learned from the playoffs is that the roster isn't the problem and in large part really has never been THE problem. The problem has been the organizational incompetence and in particular the horrible coaching and coaching. The Sabres haven't had a single competent professional coach since, well, Lindy.

The Sabres have had great players throughout the entire drought - just not a complete team.

Watching these playoffs, I’ve learned the exact opposite lesson as you - these teams all have full rosters of NHL-caliber players, and great depth. Something Buffalo has never had and still doesn’t have.

The same teams keep going far in the playoffs with different coaches because coaching matters far less than your actual rosters and the players on the ice.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798066679639113893

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798069810976489595

Back to back on my timeline...

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

We are talking in terms of the entire decade of shit and not just last season. I would also be willing to say last season being total shit had lots to do with the coach and staff who had no business having those jobs at this level, if they had sacked them all at the New Year and hired a competent Lindy type and staff they make the playoffs. If the team had even an average PP they would've made it and that was all on Matt Ellis being completely incompetent at his job.

Last year’s team was full of players that Granato had to worry about developing so that he wasn’t even able to focus on winning. Stop using the Sabres as a developmental organization and we’ll start winning.

All of these other teams are doing great with former Sabres. They should have been developing in the minors instead, and coming up when they’re ready so that they aren’t ready to move on from the team and city by the time they’re good enough to win cups.