The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[michaelsaas]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1313640925055389699

I could not care less about random hot takes when contracts are signed.

k.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Then why didn’t he sign long term right away with Florida?

new team, year away from payday, why would you sign

signing long term 4 years from free agency versus signing long term 1 year from free agency

 

[SECRET SQUIRREL]

Adams never taking advantage via trades by using any of our 3 retention slots and tons of cap space is where it's obvious they had an internal budget. Hopefully those days are over, but I'm still a little skeptical.

 

[Gras]

Adams never taking advantage via trades by using any of our 3 retention slots and tons of cap space is where it's obvious they had an internal budget. Hopefully those days are over, but I'm still a little skeptical.

Minnesota set the price low for retention as a 3rd party.
Teams will only pay extra for retention if it is required for the cap, ie FLA didn't need any retention on Okposo because they had enough cap space for the trade so there was no need for them to pay extra.

 

[BFLO]

Then why didn’t he sign long term right away with Florida?

Probably for the same reason he didn’t sign one with the Sabres. It wasn’t offered to him.

Scroll back to post #6843 to see Reinhart’s quote on the matter with the Sabres.

 

[Djp]

That's actually not what it means. You're 100% wrong, and making shit up without even checking, which wouldn't be difficult at all.

I'm not making shit up. Ivr taken graduate economics classes.

That isn't technically correct

the definition is:
the exclusive possession or control of the supply of or trade in a commodity or service

Anything can be monopolized as long as it has a supply and demand. If you are the sole owner of the method of making red box fans and no one can replicate it, you hold a monopoly on red box fans. Now it is possible to buy any other color fan or alternatives to red box fans however if you insist on a red box fan, you hold total control over the market.

Dont confuse trademark/copyright/patent with a company monopoly.

Red box patened their methodology but not renting videos. Netflix did a mail order format.

Of course red box is noe dead.

Market decides f ou that survival in which who is willing to invest.

Therr is a fundamental difference in consumers must go through X
To get Y.

Utilities are a monopoly. Back in the day tr as ins very as monopoly in areas of the country.

You see it in pharma if only one company is making a generic drug thatd bern around 50+ yrs.

Then you have shot term ones like your spouse has a monopoly on you until one dies_divorce or onr goes mormon.

It doesn't add up to much when they are so far below the salary cap that it literally doesn't matter.

They fony need to spend to the cap.

Why would it? He had zero leverage with his current contract.

The proper comp for him is Charlie McAvoy.

Charlie McAvoy Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats | Puckpedia

See the latest contract, injury news, and transactions for Charlie McAvoy including cap hit, AAV, salary, signing bonus, clauses, and agent on PuckPedia.

puckpedia.com

Because he was a 10.2 RFA (College RFA with no arb/offersheet rights)

He signed a 3 year, 5M per deal (6% of cap)

He then signed an 8 year, 9.5M deal (11% 0f the cap when he signed)

Power Signed a 7 year, 8.5M deal (9.5% of the cap)

Adjusted for the McAvoy contract, Power's rate should have been 5.28M followed by a 11.5% deal. Lets assume 100M at the end of Powers contract, so 4 years at 11.5M.

For that same 7 year period is 7 years, 61.84.

Power signed a 7 year, 58.45M contract.

The issue is, of course, McAvoy the 2nd half of that contract by being an elite top pairing d-man over his bridge deal.

The Sabres, essentially, have paid Power an elite level d-man, market rate deal, except they are paying more up front when cap space costs more. And even in the best case scenario where Power is an elite d-man, he can test the market at age 28. The escalating cap does help things a bit, but, paying essentially 3M over market for him the next year 3s to hopefully pay 3M under market 3 years later is a big risk.

The obvious move for Power was to let him get to RFA, and essentially offer him the McAvoy bridge, and then pay the market rate in 3 years. Worst case scenario, he doesn't turn into an elite d-man and you can move on. If he does turn into an elite d-man, now, yes, you get a few years of savings cap wise.

The only real redeeming part of this contract is they have several years to buy him out using the under 26 clause where the buyouts are reasonable (1/3rd of the remaining cap hit vs 2/3rd of a normal buyout) if things go south. Otherwise, this was a real unforced error by Adams.

Especially since, unless he won the norris last year, there wasn't much he could have done to earned a bigger deal by letting him hit RFA this summer.

I would have preferred a 3 yr bridgr of $5M or so.

But the bridge goes to 2027 when Skinner contract ends and cap is tight.

Its one of those do you hurt yourself thr next few years or later.

Minnesota set the price low for retention as a 3rd party.
Teams will only pay extra for retention if it is required for the cap, ie FLA didn't need any retention on Okposo because they had enough cap space for the trade so there was no need for them to pay extra.

Minnesota did nothing on deadline retention. It varies yr to yr.

Comp is tied to actual money a retained team spend sd on salary rather than the cap spacr used. ROR had a $1M actual salary with high bonus already paid out. St dralinr he was owed around 250K so they only paid $62,500 in salary. That's why the amt gotten was so low.

 

[Matt Ress]

Adams never taking advantage via trades by using any of our 3 retention slots and tons of cap space is where it's obvious they had an internal budget. Hopefully those days are over, but I'm still a little skeptical.

This is definitely a spot that I can't argue out of. Like you said, hopefully that time has passed but I think they'll be focusing on team quality for cap usage

 

[joshjull]

Of course he's not going to give max term extensions out to everyone. But I'd expect it for the guys playing at the top of the LU such as Quinn and/or Peterka and/or whoever may take their spots.

I think if you're paying Quinn/Peterka AND someone else, you will have to say goodbye to Tuch sooner than later... Which should never happen.

Everyone in this conversion (top 6 winger add/Quinn/Peterka) is someone you expect to get a long term deal. I’m pointing out that isn’t true. Adams has options to make it work.

Now you’re moving the goalposts to include Tuch. He along with the others can be kept by working contract options. Probably for at least 3 years, maybe 4. Then they’d probably have some big decisions to make.

I'm not fixed on Ehlers. I just used him as an example. The same would apply no matter who we might acquire.

You were fixed on Ehlers since you referenced his specific contract situation. But thats my fault for not being clearer with the point I was making. I also agree with you that Ehlers isn’t likely to sign a 3 year deal.

My point was supposed to be we could acquire an established top 6 winger with various contract situations. They could be guys in the mid 20s with 1 or 2 years of team control (like Sam or McLeod) who would be open to a shorter 3yr deal. Sicne they can still cash in at the end of it. Or it could be someone in their later 20s like Ehler. Someone unlikely to want anything but a long term deal. Depending how desperate Adams is, that play could be acquired without an extension. Though that seems unlikely.

If you look at how this roster is likely to be constructed as we move forward, i don't see space for all four of those pieces. 3/4 of them - sure. Right now it appears to be the three guys we actually have as opposed to a potential acquisition. And I'm talking from a roster building standpoint as well as a finance/cap standpoint.

There is clearcut opening for a top 6 winger now and going forward. There are kids on the roster and in the system who might become that top 6 winger. But they're not one now annd we don’t know when or of they will become one. Their existence is certainly not a reason to avoid adding another top 6 winger.

 

[Jim Bob]

There is clearcut opening for a top 6 winger now and going forward. There are kids on the roster and in the system who might become that top 6 winger. But they're not one now annd we don’t know when or of they will become one. Their existence is certainly not a reason to avoid adding another top 6 winger.

With Tuch, Quinn, Peterka, and Benson on the roster and the belief that Zucker can play up and down the lineup, I could see Adams and company not feeling like adding a top 6 winger being a huge need right now.

The other challenge is finding the right guy to add that fits their needs both on the roster and moving forward given that the asks in trade seem to be sky high due to the lack of movement of top 6 wingers and it sure seeming like a sellers market.

Especially if a lot of the asks include a roster player that will address one area of the roster only to blow a hole in another area (like the Mitts-Byram trade did, for instance).

 

[elchud]

Is there consensus that our roster is better than last year's roster, but not by enough, and we will finish between 8th and 11th in the conference? I think that's what I'm seeing after reading this entire thread. Maybe we sneak into the playoffs...but it's definitely maybe.

 

[Dingo44]

Is there consensus that our roster is better than last year's roster, but not by enough, and we will finish between 8th and 11th in the conference? I think that's what I'm seeing after reading this entire thread. Maybe we sneak into the playoffs...but it's definitely maybe.

I think when you remove players who weren't helping much and replace them with fast, tough, defensively responsible players who hit, then add in new coaching with actual systems, and if Tage, Cozens, and Tuch can stay healthy, and then the natural growth from Peterka, Quinn, Benson, Byram, and Power, plus having even an average power play, there is a lot to think we're a lot better.

 

[TageGod]

Benson Mcleod Greenway. WHO IS GOING TO SCORE GOALS ON THAT LINE!? You have a playmaker who is not a goal scorer, a fast guy who doesn't really excel at anything, a slow dude who doesn't put up points. Zucker kind of needs to be there. I do not have faith in Benson being relied on for goals. I also don't have faith in him being a second line player yet. I would love to push greenway out with assets tagged on for a top 6 player to push Benson and Zucker on third line.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I'm not making shit up. Ivr taken graduate economics classes.

LOL okay bro, nice flex. I have taken plenty of grad courses on economics too. It has nothing to do with knowing the definition of the word monopoly.

Just grab yourself a dictionary and look up "monopoly" -- again, very easy to see that you are clearly wrong.

 

[Willgamesh]

LOL okay bro, nice flex. I have taken plenty of grad courses on economics too. It has nothing to do with knowing the definition of the word monopoly.

Just grab yourself a dictionary and look up "monopoly" -- again, very easy to see that you are clearly wrong.

A board game in which players engage in simulated property and financial dealings using imitation money. It was invented in the US and introduced in 1933 by Charles Darrow; a forerunner of the game had been patented on 5 January 1904 as ‘The Landlord's Game’ by Elizabeth J. Magie.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Benson Mcleod Greenway. WHO IS GOING TO SCORE GOALS ON THAT LINE!? You have a playmaker who is not a goal scorer, a fast guy who doesn't really excel at anything, a slow dude who doesn't put up points. Zucker kind of needs to be there. I do not have faith in Benson being relied on for goals. I also don't have faith in him being a second line player yet. I would love to push greenway out with assets tagged on for a top 6 player to push Benson and Zucker on third line.

It's not always about scoring goals. Here's a shot at forming lines and how it might work.

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Benson
Zucker - McLeod - Greenway
Malenstyn - Lafferty - Aube-Kubel

The Thompson line is the primary scoring line. Lots of PP time. The Cozens line is a two-way line since all three of those forwards are good defensively. And Quinn and Benson have great hockey IQ which can help Cozens. The McLeod line is a two-way line that has some secondary scoring punch. The Lafferty line is about forechecking and defense.

Now imagine playing Toronto.

McLeod's line comes over the boards against Matthews' line. McLeod is tasked with limiting Matthews, and between Greenway's size and Zucker's veteran game, they can put some pressure on that line. The Lafferty line goes against the Tavares line and they play defense and forecheck that line for 30-45 seconds at a time, limiting offensive production.

If Toronto decides to put Marner or Nylander on the 3rd line, the Cozens line can match up as well. Now Toronto is really limited to playing a sound 5v5 game and scoring on the PP. We saw how that works for them. Each playoffs, it's why they come up short against Boston and Florida. Those teams limit the Leafs 5v5 and make them play a sound game instead of the run and gun they want to play.

This is just good hockey. I was sad to see Savoie go but I get the big picture as to why Adams made the trades he made.

 

[TageGod]

It's not always about scoring goals. Here's a shot at forming lines and how it might work.

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Benson
Zucker - McLeod - Greenway
Malenstyn - Lafferty - Aube-Kubel

The Thompson line is the primary scoring line. Lots of PP time. The Cozens line is a two-way line since all three of those forwards are good defensively. And Quinn and Benson have great hockey IQ which can help Cozens. The McLeod line is a two-way line that has some secondary scoring punch. The Lafferty line is about forechecking and defense.

Now imagine playing Toronto.

McLeod's line comes over the boards against Matthews' line. McLeod is tasked with limiting Matthews, and between Greenway's size and Zucker's veteran game, they can put some pressure on that line. The Lafferty line goes against the Tavares line and they play defense and forecheck that line for 30-45 seconds at a time, limiting offensive production.

If Toronto decides to put Marner or Nylander on the 3rd line, the Cozens line can match up as well. Now Toronto is really limited to playing a sound 5v5 game and scoring on the PP. We saw how that works for them. Each playoffs, it's why they come up short against Boston and Florida. Those teams limit the Leafs 5v5 and make them play a sound game instead of the run and gun they want to play.

This is just good hockey. I was sad to see Savoie go but I get the big picture as to why Adams made the trades he made.

Was thinking that was Lafferty's line. It all makes sense, I am just not sure I like the line.

 

[joshjull]

I wanted to break up my response into two posts.

I disagree. I'm about as far away from being the guy who over values prospects... But the 1yr Zucker signing, while shopping Savoie - it tells me that he's keeping a roster spot open specifically for a guy like Kulich (or possibly Rosen if he makes the leap) who both should be ready to jump into full time NHL roles next year. We're not talking about throwing 18 yo kids in there. These guys will be D+4 & D+5 respectively by that point. These also aren't the type of players who you can put into a 'bottom 6' role - especially with how Adams has properly reshaped the roster this summer.

Several counter points

1) Zucker was acquired so they didn’t have to rely on Benson in the top 6. He (Benson) may force himself into a top 6 at some point but he won't start there. It has nothing to do with Kulich or Rosen. If Zucker is a good fit and we make the playoffs. There is a decent chance they’d want to bring him back.

2) If Benson eventually grabs a top 6 spot before the end of the season. There would be no spot in the top 6 for Kulich or Rosen anyway. He’s already on the roster and light years ahead of the other two developmentally.

3) Kulich/Rosen being ready for the NHL doesn’t mean they get spots

4) Kulich/Rosen don’t have to be in the top 6. They are most likely going to be middle 6 wingers. They’re just not 4th liners, especially with how we set up ours. So they don’t need a top 6 spot open to make the team.

Technically there is until Krebs has signed. But realistically - no there isn't.

Once Malenstyn and Krebs sign we’ll have 13 forwards. The can carry 14. So there is still a spot left if they want to fill it. Yes I’m aware of the 8 dmen under contract.

Right now we have a balanced group where everyone is projected to play the type of role they should be playing. Trying to shoehorn another 'top 6' guy in there will put everything else out of whack.

We have one of the better mixes of talent we’ve had in some time. But we’re still counting on 3 youngsters in the top 6. They aren’t far off from their potential but they’re still not proven yet.

Adding a proven top 6 player to the mix would be a huge boost to that group. It’s why the front office is still open to adding one. I think cost will ultimately prevent it from happening though.

 

[Zman5778]

Is there consensus that our roster is better than last year's roster, but not by enough, and we will finish between 8th and 11th in the conference? I think that's what I'm seeing after reading this entire thread. Maybe we sneak into the playoffs...but it's definitely maybe.

I'm not sure that there's a consensus per se.

I think the success of our season boils down to:

1.) Tage, Cozens and Tuch all rebounding.
2.) Peterka and Quinn not regressing
3.) UPL/Levi/Reimer providing the same level of goaltending that we got last year.

It's also kind of assuming that our PP bounces back and our PK is at minimum at least as good as it was last year.

There's both reason for hope and reason for pessimism.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Zucker can't play up and down the lineup. Only down. He's not that good anymore.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Biron just said Joki looked great for the second half of the season. Do stats back that up?

I know how to find season-long stats but not sure how to summarize only portions of a season. In other words, I’d look it up myself if I knew how.

 

[Ygo]

Biron just said Joki looked great for the second half of the season. Do stats back that up?

I know how to find season-long stats but not sure how to summarize only portions of a season. In other words, I’d look it up myself if I knew how.

Good with 26, terrible without him... This is from Jan 1 forward, so about half a season.

 

[Aladyyn]

Good with 26, terrible without him... This is from Jan 1 forward, so about half a season.View attachment 895756

Christ, put a trigger warning on that

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Is there consensus that our roster is better than last year's roster, but not by enough, and we will finish between 8th and 11th in the conference? I think that's what I'm seeing after reading this entire thread. Maybe we sneak into the playoffs...but it's definitely maybe.

I believe the roster is stronger, but I don’t think it’s “better”.

Olofsson’s goals will be replaced by one of the new acquisitions, and you have to assume one of them match or exceed Jost’s total. It’s replacing the goals that Okposo and Skinner that remains to be seen (although I’m assuming Zucker scores in between those two).

There’s gonna be a lot more 2-1 and 3-1 games instead of 5-3 and 4-2 games.

 

[Sabresbyswords104]

Comparing this team to the team that was 1 point from playoffs ?

What was the lines That season ? And why would we not be better then that team ? My opinion is That this team lines make some sense in first time in like 13 years. Confident for playoffs . They top 6 forward would be needed to go further in playoffs

 

[sabremike]

Good with 26, terrible without him... This is from Jan 1 forward, so about half a season.View attachment 895756

A reminder that there are actually people who believe Dahlin isn't a top 10 defenseman.