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The Race for the Calder Trophy

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Dr Jan Itor said:
Nah. Roughly the same, all things being equal. Then it's just a matter of how much extra credit you feel like giving, like I said.

His defense is better than you're saying.


Sort of like what this thread is entirely about.
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His defense is beginning to be more myth than based in reality. He ranks 70th out of 120 in GA/60 at 5v5 (min. 700 minutes to make it practically out of every top 4 defenseman in the league), so average to slightly below average. On his own team, it shake out as follows:
Hunt • 1.47 GA/60
Spurgeon • 1.72 GA/60
Mermis • 1.98 GA/60
Brodin • 2.14 GA/60
Bogosian • 2.51 GA/60
Faber • 2.57 GA/60
Followed by Merrill, Golgotha, and Middleton.

Obviously Faber has a harder role than most his other teammates and I’m not insinuating he’s worse defensively than the others, but this unicorn status posters are applying to his defensive game has been frankly untrue for a while now.

Bedard’s offense on an offensively inept team on the other hand is an absolute anomaly.
 
Yepthatsme said:
His defense is beginning to be more myth than based in reality. He ranks 70th out of 120 in GA/60 at 5v5 (min. 700 minutes to make it practically out of every top 4 defenseman in the league), so average to slightly below average. On his own team, it shake out as follows:
Hunt • 1.47 GA/60
Spurgeon • 1.72 GA/60
Mermis • 1.98 GA/60
Brodin • 2.14 GA/60
Bogosian • 2.51 GA/60
Faber • 2.57 GA/60
Followed by Merrill, Golgotha, and Middleton.

Obviously Faber has a harder role than most his other teammates and I’m not insinuating he’s worse defensively than the others, but this unicorn status posters are applying to his defensive game has been frankly untrue for a while now.

Bedard’s offense on an offensively inept team on the other hand is an absolute anomaly.
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True statement.

He also ranks 8th in xGA/60 and 78th in own-goalie save % under those same parameters. Puts the GA number into a bit of context, yeah?
 
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Dr Jan Itor said:
True statement.

He also ranks 8th in xGA/60 and 78th in own-goalie save % under those same parameters. Puts the GA number into a bit of context, yeah?
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His xGA/60 appears to be more of a product of Minnesota’s system than his own play. Once again here’s how his xGA/60 looks amongst his teammates:
Spurgeon • 2.01
Brodin • 2.07
Bogosian • 2.19
Faber 2.21
Mermis 2.29
Merril 2.31
Middleton 2.32
Goligoski 2.43

Doesn’t really stand out against any of the players on his own team, who across the board have pretty great numbers. So once again, not really closing in on the legend posters here are trying to make him out to be defensively once you again look at context.

Edit: also as per your save percentage point, you do realize that his percentages falling relatively in line with his results means the numbers are probably fairly accurate and indicative of his play, right? If a player was middle of the pack, but with abhorrent percentages (like Makar or Heiskanen), or the with way too good of percentages (Ceci and Matheson) it would more suggest that there’s external factors or luck effecting the results more.
 
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Yepthatsme said:
His xGA/60 appears to be more of a product of Minnesota’s system than his own play. Once again here’s how his xGA/60 looks amongst his teammates:
Spurgeon • 2.01
Brodin • 2.07
Bogosian • 2.19
Faber 2.21
Mermis 2.29
Merril 2.31
Middleton 2.32
Goligoski 2.43

Doesn’t really stand out against any of the players on his own team, who across the board have pretty great numbers. So once again, not really closing in on the legend posters here are trying to make him out to be defensively once you again look at context.
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I guess it's a good thing that you don't need to be a legend to win Rookie of the Year.

All I'm really saying with the GA, xGA and save% numbers, is that when you put them all together, the 10,000 feet analysis is that there's probably a decently significant number of those goals that went in that shouldn't have. So if you're using the GA to say that he's not good defensively, or below average or whatever, I'm not sold on it.
 
Yepthatsme said:
His xGA/60 appears to be more of a product of Minnesota’s system than his own play. Once again here’s how his xGA/60 looks amongst his teammates:
Spurgeon • 2.01
Brodin • 2.07
Bogosian • 2.19
Faber 2.21
Mermis 2.29
Merril 2.31
Middleton 2.32
Goligoski 2.43

Doesn’t really stand out against any of the players on his own team, who across the board have pretty great numbers. So once again, not really closing in on the legend posters here are trying to make him out to be defensively once you again look at context.
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He's been the best defenseman, defensively, on the team throughout the year, with Brodin probably edging him out the last two weeks.

Stats are important and part of the equation, but you can't quantify everything in hockey - gotta watch him to get the other part of that equation. Shift by shift. It's been really impressive and I've been watching a ton of hockey for 30+ years.
 
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Jbcraig1883 said:
He's been the best defenseman, defensively, on the team throughout the year, with Brodin probably edging him out the last two weeks.

Stats are important and part of the equation, but you can't quantify everything in hockey - gotta watch him to get the other part of that equation. Shift by shift. It's been really impressive and I've been watching a ton of hockey for 30+ years.
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I don't think there's been a point during the year, when Brodin was healthy, where anybody has been better than Brodin defensively.

Can probably stretch that to the last 5 years or so too.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
I guess it's a good thing that you don't need to be a legend to win Rookie of the Year.

All I'm really saying with the GA, xGA and save% numbers, is that when you put them all together, the 10,000 feet analysis is that there's probably a decently significant number of those goals that went in that shouldn't have. So if you're using the GA to say that he's not good defensively, or below average or whatever, I'm not sold on it.
Click to expand...

Jbcraig1883 said:
He's been the best defenseman, defensively, on the team throughout the year, with Brodin probably edging him out the last two weeks.

Stats are important and part of the equation, but you can't quantify everything in hockey - gotta watch him to get the other part of that equation. Shift by shift. It's been really impressive and I've been watching a ton of hockey for 30+ years.
Click to expand...
Once again I’m quite aware that he is definitely good defensively, I’m certainly not implying anything to the contrary. I’m just refuting the point that somehow his defense has him at unicorn status, and provides the same value as a point per game centre.

But Bedard is a unicorn. I went all the way back to 1970, no player since the NHL had only 6 teams has ever managed to be a point per game player on a team that scores as much or less than the Chicago Blackhawks. If Bedard keeps up his recent play, he has a good shot at becoming the first player in NHL history to do so, and as an 18 year old rookie to boot. It’s absurd.
 
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Dr Jan Itor said:
I don't think there's been a point during the year, when Brodin was healthy, where anybody has been better than Brodin defensively.

Can probably stretch that to the last 5 years or so too.
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I am not sure I agree with that. Maybe not every game but Brodin looked a bit off at times earlier this season and Faber was playing lights out. Everything that we usually praise Brodin for in terms of gap coverage, breakouts, etc. were all being done by Faber.

Anywho, not to derail the thread - point was that you have to watch his shifts to appreciate what he is doing as a rookie playing against the top players. Stats are only one part of player analysis.

Yepthatsme said:
Once again I’m quite aware that he is definitely good defensively, I’m certainly not implying anything to the contrary. I’m just refuting the point that somehow his defense has him at unicorn status, and provides the same value as a point per game centre.

But Bedard is a unicorn. I went all the way back to 1970, no player since the NHL had only 6 teams has ever managed to be a point per game player on a team that scores as much or less than the Chicago Blackhawks. If Bedard keeps up his recent play, he has a good shot at becoming the first player in NHL history to do so, and as an 18 year old rookie to boot. It’s absurd.
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I've got no argument against what you are stating regarding Bedard. His offense is ridiculous.
 
Fraser28 said:
2 Chicago goals so far today, 2 Bedard points (assist, goal). I do think he’ll win the Calder if he plays the remaining games this season.
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Came here to say that Bedard has that "it" factor as he gets better and better and I think he will score his way to the Calder.

Right now on that crappy Black Hawks offense he is scoring at a .88 PPG pace.
 
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Brock Faber with zero pts and a +/- of -3 tonight so he remains at 33 pts.
Bedard with a goal and an assist and +1 tonight giving him 36 pts on the season.
 
Screenshot 2024-02-18 001733.png


Granger: What we’ve learned: The only way for the field to gain on Connor Bedard is for him to not play. Now that he’s back on the ice, it feels like this award is pretty much his.

Salvian: Bedard missed almost six weeks and never relinquished the lead in rookie points and goals. It was never not his to win.

Gentille: I’m glad Brock Faber got some attention over the last month, at least.

Goldman: At least the field is pretty open for third place behind these two, since this one feels decided already.
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From The Athletic
 
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Even in the entire month he was out he was still leading peoples voting for the calder, that just shows how far ahead he was when the injury happened.
 
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TaLoN said:
Brock Faber
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I'm not seeing it to be honest. Hard to imagine them passing on an 18 year old near a point per game who never relinquished the rookie scoring race despite being hurt. Great storyline or not, that's still impressive. Maybe shades of things to come with this kid. Faber is a defenseman and getting 50 points might be impressive, but I think he loses here and I don't think it has anything to do with an agenda or anything. I think there will be some that give him 1st place votes though, but not enough. Bedard is 18 and Faber is 21, which factors in I think
 
Bedard's 3rd game back and he had 1 point in the first game, 2 points in the second game and 3 points in the third game - plus he had 2 goals disallowed due to offsides challenges - 6 points in 3 games is very good but he was about 2 inches short of having 8 points., He also had another goal disallowed due to offsides challenge earlier in the season. All three disallowed goals were called onside by the linesman with replay needing to overturn the call. In none of those 3 incidents did the offside gain an advantage to Bedard scoring the goal. Total bummer.
 
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