The Race for the Calder Trophy

[MuckOG]

Panarin had more points than McDavid (in fact a lot more), so Bread won the Calder even though McDavid had a better ppg stat.

Meanwhile, Bedard still has more points than any other rookie, so it’s not really too hard to imagine a scenario where he comes back in a couple weeks, scores at a higher pace again, and ends up with the most points despite having fewer games. And if that happens, he’s definitely getting the Calder with an overall points and a ppg advantage.

Not really an apt comparison.

And I don’t mean that to mock Faber fans or anyone else, but the simple fact is that Bedard was the favorite heading into the season and it’ll take someone else definitively changing voter minds for someone else to win. And as good as Faber has been, if the hypothetical mentioned above happens, Bedard wins (heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if they still voted even if Bedard had only slightly less points overall). McDavid was the favorite his year, but enough voters couldn’t justify saying that 48 > 77 and ignored the ppg angle.

Again, if you are comparing like positions (ie forward to forward or defenseman to defenseman) it makes sense to look at total points. When comparing a forward to a defenseman or a goalie, you have to look beyond just points. Just two years ago, Seider beat out Zegras for Calder even though he scored fewer points than Zegras. Why? Because the voters looked beyond total points. And this is not the only example of this happening in recent Calder history if you care to go and check. There are multiple examples of defenseman beating out higher scoring forwards for the award.

Faber's numbers aren't just best among rookie defenseman, some his metrics are tracking among the best veteran NHL defensemen as well (as I laid them out earlier).

Regarding Bedard being the favorite coming into the season, I'll agree with that. But the voters aren't stupid, they don't just hand it out to who had the most preseason hype. There is still plenty of season left and if Bedard comes back, shakes off the rust and picks up his scoring, he can definitely still win it....but right now, Faber is in the driver seat..but even then, I still think Faber needs to score around 50 points to seal the deal.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Sure, but that was in a year where there wasn't a definitive ordained favorite. This year there was one, and offensive stats trump all in most writer minds.

Defensemen tend to win when there isn't a clear cut offensive favorite, or when said defensive player is the best rookie offensive threat. Assuming Bedard comes back at around the same level and stays healthy, he is and was that kind of offensive threat.

That'll win him the votes needed.

 

[thestonedkoala]

From what I can tell, no rookie defensemen in the past 10 years have ever played more than 24:00 minutes on average. Powers got close with 23:48, but Faber is playing almost an entire minute more than him AND Powers was a 1st overall pick, so you'd expect him to get a ton of minutes.

Powers also ended up with 35 points (4 goals, 31 assists) in 79 GP. Like Faber is probably going to smash that record.

Faber - as a rookie is 11th in TOI for all defensemen (not just rookies) and 18th in points (tied with Heiskanen). He is 25th for points per game.

Bedard is currently 51st in points, but 35th for points per game amongst centers. He's 34th among centers for TOI. He is also 211th overall in FO win %.

Bedard is tracking where he should be - if not a little higher. Not a top center yet, but on the cusp of being one of the best even before his injuries.

Faber is already showing he's among the best defensemen in this league.

(Metrics that are important as a defenseman are TOI and points. As a center, points and face offs)

 

[MuckOG]

Sure, but that was in a year where there wasn't a definitive ordained favorite. This year there was one, and offensive stats trump all in most writer minds.

Defensemen tend to win when there isn't a clear cut offensive favorite, or when said defensive player is the best rookie offensive threat. Assuming Bedard comes back at around the same level and stays healthy, he is and was that kind of offensive threat.

That'll win him the votes needed.

I guess I give the voters a little more credit than you do.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

From what I can tell, no rookie defensemen in the past 10 years have ever played more than 24:00 minutes on average. Powers got close with 23:48, but Faber is playing almost an entire minute more than him AND Powers was a 1st overall pick, so you'd expect him to get a ton of minutes.

Powers also ended up with 35 points (4 goals, 31 assists) in 79 GP. Like Faber is probably going to smash that record.

Faber - as a rookie is 11th in TOI for all defensemen (not just rookies) and 18th in points (tied with Heiskanen). He is 25th for points per game.

Bedard is currently 51st in points, but 35th for points per game amongst centers. He's 34th among centers for TOI. He is also 211th overall in FO win %.

Bedard is tracking where he should be - if not a little higher. Not a top center yet, but on the cusp of being one of the best even before his injuries.

Faber is already showing he's among the best defensemen in this league.

(Metrics that are important as a defenseman are TOI and points. As a center, points and face offs)

Good write up. What Faber is doing as a rookie dman is pretty unprecedented. He's arguably been a top 10 defensemen in the league this year. Bedard's production has been impressive, but it's hardly without precedent, and he's very clearly not a top 10 forward right now.

Faber's 24:57 average TOI is the highest in rookie history. He's played primarily as a shut down defenseman for most of the season, yet his production rate really only trails Hughes, Makar, and Gostisbehere among rookie D production since the 2005 lockout.

Bedard's PPG is 18th among rookies over that same stretch. Obviously being on a terrible team hurts him, but scoring is also as high as it's been in that span. And Bedard is a complete liability defensively, which hurts his ranking even more.

If I needed a guy for the upcoming playoffs, I'm taking Faber over Bedard. And I think most coaches would do the same.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Once again, the NFL has this one right: Offensive ROY and Defensive ROY.

Problem solved.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Once again, the NFL has this one right: Offensive ROY and Defensive ROY.

Problem solved.

Would goalies go under defensive ROY?

Also I feel like Faber has far exceeded expectations while Bedard has met his.

 

[TLEH]

Hawks have scored 16 goals in the 13 games he's been out. They've been shutout 4 times and scored 1 goal 4 times. 8 out of the 13 games he's been out they've scored 1 or 0 goals. I think people are vastly underrepresenting how bad this roster is.

I actually am fine with Faber winning the Calder. I don't have a problem with it. I think he's been great.

 

[State of Hockey]

Faber is already showing he's among the best defensemen in this league.

(Metrics that are important as a defenseman are TOI and points. As a center, points and face offs)

He's not among the best defensemen in the league. Actually much closer to the worst than the best since Christmas. There's times when a high TOI is more about the situation than the player, and this is one of them. The hype in the first third of the season was all about his defense. And it was earned - team goals against when he was on the ice was impressive - although some, like myself, pointed out the underlying metrics said it was likely not sustainable. But his defense has collapsed since then. He's near the worst of the league since Christmas in team goals against, nearly doubling his prior per game averages. And it's not just because he's playing a ton of minutes. The average per minute and even the eye test shows it too. Concurrently his team's even strength production when he's on the ice has declined as well, so they're not even getting offense to go with the porous defense. The only real positive change? A huge increase in PP time with the #1 PP unit that has some excellent players on it. That opportunity, largely due to no other teammate having the skills to play the point on a PP, has dramatically increased his assists and PP points.

The hype for him is as disingenuous as anyone else's. His defense in the first ~30 games was impressive and worthy of praise. But his defensive game since has dramatically deteriorated, and instead of those hyping him acknowledging that, they simply have shifted to talking about (PP) assists and ignoring the collapse in his defense. Ironically that's the very talking points they were using to downplay Bedard's game. They want to have it both ways while also ignoring the clear difference in teammate strength. The data and eye test says both are struggling on defense now. But there's also no question who has better players around them affecting their data points, and that's Faber by a mile. There's much less excuse for his recent poor EV and SH play.

 

[thestonedkoala]

He's not among the best defensemen in the league. Actually much closer to the worst than the best since Christmas. There's times when a high TOI is more about the situation than the player, and this is one of them. The hype in the first third of the season was all about his defense. And it was earned - team goals against when he was on the ice was impressive - although some, like myself, pointed out the underlying metrics said it was likely not sustainable. But his defense has collapsed since then. He's near the worst of the league since Christmas in team goals against, nearly doubling his prior per game averages. And it's not just because he's playing a ton of minutes. The average per minute and even the eye test shows it too. Concurrently his team's even strength production when he's on the ice has declined as well, so they're not even getting offense to go with the porous defense. The only real positive change? A huge increase in PP time with the #1 PP unit that has some excellent players on it. That opportunity, largely due to no other teammate having the skills to play the point on a PP, has dramatically increased his assists and PP points.

The hype for him is as disingenuous as anyone else's. His defense in the first ~30 games was impressive and worthy of praise. But his defensive game since has dramatically deteriorated, and instead of those hyping him acknowledging that, they simply have shifted to talking about (PP) assists and ignoring the collapse in his defense. Ironically that's the very talking points they were using to downplay Bedard's game. They want to have it both ways while also ignoring the clear difference in teammate strength. The data and eye test says both are struggling on defense now. But there's also no question who has better players around them affecting their data points, and that's Faber by a mile. There's much less excuse for his recent poor EV and SH play.

Oh it's you. Hi. I stopped reading because my eyes were bleeding. But Faber is getting time over more veterans and hasn't looked out of place. He's still a rookie, so mistakes have been made, but again he's a rookie.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's not among the best defensemen in the league. Actually much closer to the worst than the best since Christmas. There's times when a high TOI is more about the situation than the player, and this is one of them. The hype in the first third of the season was all about his defense. And it was earned - team goals against when he was on the ice was impressive - although some, like myself, pointed out the underlying metrics said it was likely not sustainable. But his defense has collapsed since then. He's near the worst of the league since Christmas in team goals against, nearly doubling his prior per game averages. And it's not just because he's playing a ton of minutes. The average per minute and even the eye test shows it too. Concurrently his team's even strength production when he's on the ice has declined as well, so they're not even getting offense to go with the porous defense. The only real positive change? A huge increase in PP time with the #1 PP unit that has some excellent players on it. That opportunity, largely due to no other teammate having the skills to play the point on a PP, has dramatically increased his assists and PP points.

The hype for him is as disingenuous as anyone else's. His defense in the first ~30 games was impressive and worthy of praise. But his defensive game since has dramatically deteriorated, and instead of those hyping him acknowledging that, they simply have shifted to talking about (PP) assists and ignoring the collapse in his defense. Ironically that's the very talking points they were using to downplay Bedard's game. They want to have it both ways while also ignoring the clear difference in teammate strength. The data and eye test says both are struggling on defense now. But there's also no question who has better players around them affecting their data points, and that's Faber by a mile. There's much less excuse for his recent poor EV and SH play.

Woah. A compliment.

 

[wetcoast]

Let me guess, your sole metric is points scored

I would make the argument on goals and ESG more than points but he has that as well.

 

[wetcoast]

I ask again, how did that work out for McDavid?

Well the guy who won the Calder that year has 31 more points so sure if Bedard doesn't come back he probably won't win right.

I want it to be Faber so that Rob Blake’s abject failure as Kings GM can be complete.

Dumbass.

Faber doesn't need to win the Calder that trade made Blake look like a dumbass the day it happened.

 

[wetcoast]

Again, if you are comparing like positions (ie forward to forward or defenseman to defenseman) it makes sense to look at total points. When comparing a forward to a defenseman or a goalie, you have to look beyond just points. Just two years ago, Seider beat out Zegras for Calder even though he scored fewer points than Zegras. Why? Because the voters looked beyond total points. And this is not the only example of this happening in recent Calder history if you care to go and check. There are multiple examples of defenseman beating out higher scoring forwards for the award.

Faber's numbers aren't just best among rookie defenseman, some his metrics are tracking among the best veteran NHL defensemen as well (as I laid them out earlier).

Regarding Bedard being the favorite coming into the season, I'll agree with that. But the voters aren't stupid, they don't just hand it out to who had the most preseason hype. There is still plenty of season left and if Bedard comes back, shakes off the rust and picks up his scoring, he can definitely still win it....but right now, Faber is in the driver seat..but even then, I still think Faber needs to score around 50 points to seal the deal.

I've been thinking about this since I did the wrong year and took the Makar example but what this poster said is true.

Bedard came in with huge expectations going into his Calder year and performed.

Seider did the same thing as his play in Sweden (and at the WC as well) the year before his Calder year already set the hype train.

Faber didn't have the hype despite his scoring explosion this year and that's why the Bure Lidstrom comaprisson is more applicable assuming of course that Bedard comes back healthy soon.

 

[MuckOG]

Well the guy who won the Calder that year has 31 more points so sure if Bedard doesn't come back he probably won't win

You're conflating arguments. I was refuting the argument that preseason hype about "generational" players doesn't really carry as much water when it comes to voters.

McDavid lost because he missed extensive time due to injury. He lost out to another forward (Panarin) who stayed healthy and was worthy.

 

[wetcoast]

I guess I give the voters a little more credit than you do.

You don't think that some voters don't take narratives into consideration when voting?

Once again, the NFL has this one right: Offensive ROY and Defensive ROY.

Problem solved.

It's almost like offense and defense is separate in the NFL or something?

I mean I like Mahomes but his rush defesne is worse than....

 

[wetcoast]

You're conflating arguments. I was refuting the argument that preseason hype about "generational" players doesn't really carry as much water when it comes to voters.

I'm not conflating an argument but rather expanding on my previous one and then also agreed that narrative does impact some voters.

Either way let's keep it simple for others on here no need to get that cute you disagree with me.

Using the term conflating is just a pretentious way to downgrade someone's argument and the argument for the Calder for either Bedard or Faber doesn't come down to just a single idea but rather a combination of them right?

McDavid lost because he missed extensive time due to injury. He lost out to another forward (Panarin) who stayed healthy and was worthy.

Sure McDavid is going to lose more time to injury than Bedard will and also Faber isn't going to outscore Bedard by 31 points, if at all.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You don't think that some voters don't take narratives into consideration when voting?


It's almost like offense and defense is separate in the NFL or something?

I mean I like Mahomes but his rush defesne is worse than....

It’s separate in hockey too.

 

[wetcoast]

It’s separate in hockey too.

No actually it isn't hockey is a fluid game players almost always play offense and defense on the same shift, football is more like baseball in the separation of offense and defense.

 

[MuckOG]

Sure McDavid is going to lose more time to injury than Bedard will and also Faber isn't going to outscore Bedard by 31 points, if at all.

Which is irrelevant when comparing forwards to defensemen (see Seider and Ekblad)

Fabers metrics are comparible among the best all all NHL defensemen, not just rookies. Bedards are not comparable with the best NHL forwards.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Which is irrelevant when comparing forwards to defensemen (see Seider and Ekblad)

Fabers metrics are comparible among the best all all NHL defensemen, not just rookies. Bedards are not comparable with the best NHL forwards.

What are these "metrics"?

 

[MuckOG]

What are these "metrics"?

Top 10 in TOI. 18th in points, 25th in PPG

Bedard is 51st in points, 34th among centers in TOI, and 211th in FO%

 

[TLEH]

Top 10 in TOI. 18th in points, 25th in PPG

Bedard is 51st in points, 34th among centers in TOI, and 211th in FO%

Like I said earlier, I’m comfortable with Faber winning, he’s been great. These aren’t the stats that will make him win lol

 

[MuckOG]

Like I said earlier, I’m comfortable with Faber winning, he’s been great. These aren’t the stats that will make him win lol

What they show, relative to the rest of the NHL, is that Faber is having a better season as a defenseman than Bedard is having as a forward.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Top 10 in TOI. 18th in points, 25th in PPG

Bedard is 51st in points, 34th among centers in TOI, and 211th in FO%

Ahhh TOI. A stat as relevant as points when comparing F & D.

Bedard still leads his team in scoring by a fair margin, and is .25 PPG over the next closest
Faceoffs? No one expects a small 18 year old to be good at faceoffs in the NHL.

Bedard is back soon, and if he can reclaim his scoring he's still very much in contention.