The Race for the Calder Trophy

[TLEH]

I think overall what the Hawks were able to give him was good for development. Far too many times rookies aren't necessarily able to be rookies. Hawks having little expectations the next couple years allows Connor to play his game and at least be confident that what worked in junior can translate to the NHL. Plenty of time later on to work on those defensive aspects that will make him a better all around player.

I guess its sort of half and half for me. Its nice to have no expectations and be able to play your game without a ton of pressure and figure out what works and what doesn't..

On the flip side, I think the injuries and deployment isn't an ideal situation. You expect a #1 OA to go to a bad team, but you also expect that bad team to have atleast one other young player to keep up with. Reichel was hopefully that guy but he just hasn't been. The veterans are mostly just cap dump or castoffs. Hall was supposed to be that guy but was never really healthy (when has he ever been).

Hopefully Nazar can use his WJC and springboard into a great second half with more usage at Michigan and then join and play RW with Bedard.

 

[bossram]

5v5 data is 100x more important but I think all situations data is still relevant when it comes to team impact rather than like.. how much impact you have league wide. I wouldn't use them to compare like Bedard vs another player on another team, but all situations impact on your own roster I think is relevant.

Mixing game states just makes no sense for the purpose of analysis.

All that chart says is that a guy who plays on the PP but not the PK will have better numbers. Like yeah, no sh*t.

PP time has value too. Just examine it separately.

 

[TLEH]

Mixing game states just makes no sense for the purpose of analysis.

All that chart says is that a guy who plays on the PP but not the PK will have better numbers. Like yeah, no sh*t.

PP time has value too. Just examine it separately.

Yeah I even said that PK data mixed in has such negative value on the data because he doesn't play it, obviously. I also expected an NHL analytics twitter with 55k followers, a lot in the analytics community, to post more valuable stuff. (I was wrong, based on NaturalStatTrick data).

 

[TLEH]

Honestly I don't even know how they came up with those numbers, because even in all situations, Bedard has 41GF 49GA, 8 goals short of a 50% GF%...

Well they replied and said its their own numbers they have tracked, and it is all situations, in which I brought up the PK aspect.

GF% seems pretty straight forward not sure how they could be off 8 goals

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well they replied and said its their own numbers they have tracked, and it is all situations, in which I brought up the PK aspect.

GF% seems pretty straight forward not sure how they could be off 8 goals

Yeah they must be having an issue with their data or something, because I can't imagine a way they'd close that gap unless they're just using a specific sample.

 

[Wasted Talent]

GF% seems pretty straight forward not sure how they could be off 8 goals

Could be all situations without empty net goals?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Could be all situations without empty net goals?

He's 1GF 8GA in empty net situations, so that almost closes the gap.

 

[njdevils1982]

Bedard would have to miss an extended period of time for this thing to get close

6-8 weeks...isn't gonna win it

 

[BlueBull]

6-8 weeks...isn't gonna win it

Not exactly. Assuming he finishes with 60 points in 70 games or so.

Only 2 other players are on pace for 50 this season.
One of those players is Luke Hughes, but if he doesn't keep up the pace, Bedard might still end up winning anyway.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Not exactly. Assuming he finishes with 60 points in 70 games or so.

Only 2 other players are on pace for 50 this season.
One of those players is Luke Hughes, but if he doesn't keep up the pace, Bedard might still end up winning anyway.

It's looking like he'll probably play closer to 60-65 games, assuming no more injuries.

This could end up 2011-12 where RNH lost the Calder to Landeskog after missing 20 games, despite both guys finishing with 52 points.

I could see guys like Rossi, Hughes, or Fantilli putting up enough points to be a real challenge, though I think the media is so invested in the "Bedard is generational" agenda that they'll probably bias towards voting for him if it's even remotely close.

 

[RDTBay4]

Bedard has a glass jaw.

 

[Kevinsane]

Bedard has a glass jaw.

Oh, man. Please be satire.

 

[RDTBay4]

Oh, man. Please be satire.

 

[stevo61]

How has Cooley been? Fantilli is hitting the rookie wall a bit as these guys are approaching games played totals theyd see in a full year. Probably looking forward to the break

 

[OilersFanatics505]

How has Cooley been? Fantilli is hitting the rookie wall a bit as these guys are approaching games played totals theyd see in a full year. Probably looking forward to the break

Fantilli has 6 points in his last ten?

Edit: bad at math. Point above is correct.

 

[ViD]

Voronkov possibly emerging as a nominee ?

 

[f7ben]

I still think Faber puts up close to 50 and wins it.

 

[stevo61]

Fantilli has 6 points in his last ten?

Edit: bad at math. Point above is correct.

He does have 6 in 10 but hes fighting it a bit right now. Very fair for a rookie teenager to go through. His icetime has been dropping too so hes not burnt out. Columbus has 8 games in the next month and im sure these kids would never admit it but that time to reset will be good for him and probably many other young players

 

[stevo61]

Voronkov possibly emerging as a nominee ?

To expand on this for those who dont watch and just get to see his point totals he had 2 goals, 9 shots, 1 hit and 2 blocks in 15:28 against Vancouver yesterday. He makes his prescence known and always around the net

I dont think hes an actual challenger for the Calder but hes been a blessing for a team that needs more players like him

 

[squashmaple]

Voronkov possibly emerging as a nominee ?

No, but it would be a funny parallel with 2015-16 when the generation player was out with a broken bone for weeks and an older Russian came out of nowhere and sniped the Calder.

 

[Barrie22]

Bedard still has a 8 point, 3 goal lead for rookies after missing already 1 week. At this pace he is still going to have the lead when he comes back in 6 weeks.

 

[eramosat]

Any of these goalies get Top 10 consideration? Ersson...Kochetkov...Woll?

 

[eramosat]

Top 10 rookie skaters by Points...

 

[Dust]

Any of these goalies get Top 10 consideration? Ersson...Kochetkov...Woll?

View attachment 804778

Not sure if any of these guys will end up playing enough games to get serious consideration. Stuart Skinner ended up a finalist last year but he also played 50 games, and none of these guys are pacing for much more than 35-40.

 

[KevinRedkey]

You've posted this a few times. Is there a description of the award specifically saying this?
Is there not a max age that a player can be to win the award?

A stupid but easy to understand example:
Usain Bolt's 100m record is 9.58s. If a 15yr old boy ran it in 9.59s, it would undoubtedly be more impressive (given the kid's age), but Bolt's time is still factually better.

There is a max age for the Calder, but the level of 'impressiveness due to age' is not supposed to be factored into voting.