The Race for the Calder Trophy

[f7ben]

And they should, its more impressive to me for a player to put up a boat load of points than it is to be a really good defensive player. Being the best, is completely subjective to the voters, and the voters tend to place point totals ahead of how you play defensively.

If a player is scoring 40% of his teams goals, I don't care how they play defensively, and Bedard isn't a complete liability. He makes mistakes, but he's not floating around in the defensive zone or hanging out at the red line waiting for passes like Ovechkin circa 2008. You would take the Dman, sure, I would take the 18 year old who is in on the scoring of 40% of his teams goals with absolutely no one top play with.

No one cares who you would take for a Cup run.


Thats partially to do with Leaf bias IMO (it's real, don't try to convince me it's not). Zegras finished ahead of him while being worse defensively and less pts.

And no one cares what’s more impressive to you lol

 

[MuckOG]

Some in this thread have been calling Bedard a generational player. IMO, there are currently three active "generational " offensive players in the NHL: Crosby, Ovechkin and McDavid.

I dont see Bedard in his prime to be in their league. Most likely he will turn into a very good player compared to the likes of Stamkos, Hughes, Mackinnon, Matthews, etc.

Very good to great player, yes. Generational? No.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Some in this thread have been calling Bedard a generational player. IMO, there are currently three active "generational " offensive players in the NHL: Crosby, Ovechkin and McDavid.

I dont see Bedard in his prime to be in their league. Most likely he will turn into a very good player compared to the likes of Stamkos, Hughes, Mackinnon, Matthews, etc.

Very good to great player, yes. Generational? No.

And 2 of those 3 are from the same "generation", so how meaningful is that word actually?

 

[MuckOG]

And 2 of those 3 are from the same "generation", so how meaningful is that word actually?

Yep. When I think of "generational " players, its these guys:

Howe
Orr/Lefleur
Gretzky/Lemieux
Crosby/Ovechkin
McDavid

Of course, this is subjective..and I could be wrong, but I dont believe Bedard will be spoken of like these players

 

[My3Sons]

Yep. When I think of "generational " players, its these guys:

Howe
Orr/Lefleur
Gretzky/Lemieux
Crosby/Ovechkin
McDavid

Of course, this is subjective..and I could be wrong, but I dont believe Bedard will be spoken of like these players

I’m not sure I agree on Lafleur. He was a bit ahead of Trottier and Bossy but Lafleur played in a great team and once the Isles closed that gap I’d put those guys roughly at Lafkeur’s level. Great player for his time but not on the level of the other guys you’ve listed in my view.

 

[State of Hockey]

3 points and not even a + player on the night for Faber? Bust.

Shows how stats can mislead and luck matters more than anything sometimes. If Danforth doesn't miss an empty net, Faber likely finishes with 2 points and a -3.

Faber looks tired out there defensively. So far an insane save percentage has kept his stats looking better than his play. Hynes is running him into the ground.

 

[Dust]

Shows how stats can mislead and luck matters more than anything sometimes. If Danforth doesn't miss an empty net, Faber likely finishes with 2 points and a -3.

Faber looks tired out there defensively. So far an insane save percentage has kept his stats looking better than his play. Hynes is running him into the ground.

My comments were in jest, +/- isn't a great stat. I am interested to see how his season plays out though, NHL season is significantly more of a grind than NCAA.

 

[f7ben]

Damn , looks like maybe Bedard was just a passenger on this hawks team. He goes down and the hawks blow up the flames

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Shows how stats can mislead and luck matters more than anything sometimes. If Danforth doesn't miss an empty net, Faber likely finishes with 2 points and a -3.

Faber looks tired out there defensively. So far an insane save percentage has kept his stats looking better than his play. Hynes is running him into the ground.

The difference between Faber's ice time and Middleton's in the last 10 games is all power play related. He's not being run into the ground any more than the other current top pairing defenseman.

And I'm not sure that .907 save% even strength is all that "insane" either.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Damn , looks like maybe Bedard was just a passenger on this hawks team. He goes down and the hawks blow up the flames

Holding them back by being a puck hog...

 

[McVespa99]

Damn , looks like maybe Bedard was just a passenger on this hawks team. He goes down and the hawks blow up the flames

Maybe but really everyone blows up the Flames

 

[f7ben]

The difference between Faber's ice time and Middleton's in the last 10 games is all power play related. He's not being run into the ground any more than the other current top pairing defenseman.

And I'm not sure that .907 save% even strength is all that "insane" either.

The good Dr. laying an absolute beating on the Luddites !!!!

 

[TLEH]

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

View attachment 798830

Is this 5v5? Because this is not at all what I am seeing for his 5v5 numbers.

Edit: It's definitely not 5v5.

Here are the 5v5 numbers:

	With Bedard	W/O Bedard
GF%	40.35%	39.09%
xGF%	42.79%	41.24%
CF%	43.31%	44.10%
SCF%	43.52%	41.40%
HDCF%	36.21%	38.10%

 

[TLEH]

Is this 5v5? Because this is not at all what I am seeing for his 5v5 numbers.

Posted by Stathletes analytics. They didn't provide the data table that they created the graph from.

I tried to find out using the various hockey data sites and wasn't able to make the numbers align. I'll comment on twitter and see if they'll say.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Posted by Stathletes analytics. They didn't provide the data table that they created the graph from.

I tried to find out using the various hockey data sites and wasn't able to make the numbers align. I'll comment on twitter and see if they'll say.

I just added in some data to my post you quoted, it's definitely not his 5v5 impact. I am guessing it's closer to all situations, which is pretty misleading.

Edit: I should say I don't think it was your intention to be misleading, but the data from the tweet.

 

[TLEH]

I just added in some data to my post you quoted, it's definitely not his 5v5 impact. I am guessing it's closer to all situations, which is pretty misleading.

5v5 data is 100x more important but I think all situations data is still relevant when it comes to team impact rather than like.. how much impact you have league wide. I wouldn't use them to compare like Bedard vs another player on another team, but all situations impact on your own roster I think is relevant.

 

[TLEH]

I just added in some data to my post you quoted, it's definitely not his 5v5 impact. I am guessing it's closer to all situations, which is pretty misleading.

Edit: I should say I don't think it was your intention to be misleading, but the data from the tweet.

Nah I should post data with context rather than just blindly posting stuff thats poor posting.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

5v5 data is 100x more important but I think all situations data is still relevant when it comes to team impact rather than like.. how much impact you have league wide. I wouldn't use them to compare like Bedard vs another player on another team, but all situations impact on your own roster I think is relevant.

Yeah, so long as the data is normalized to some extent. Obvisouly the team will be worse in all situations without Bedard because he plays on the PP and doesn't play on the PK. So when he's not on the ice, it's much more likely the team is killing a penalty vs being on the PP, so they are much more likely to be getting caved in.

 

[TLEH]

Yeah, so long as the data is normalized to some extent. Obvisouly the team will be worse in all situations without Bedard because he plays on the PP and doesn't play on the PK. So when he's not on the ice, it's much more likely the team is killing a penalty vs being on the PP, so they are much more likely to be getting caved in.

If it even takes PK data into account then its garbage.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Since I have the stats up, I'll post the rest. Seems pretty clear that he's creating a lot of offense, but he also has a pretty significant negative impact defensively. He's a high event player, to be sure.

5v5 Per 60	With Bedard	W/O Bedard	Delta
CF	52.82	51.03	1.80
CA	69.14	65.31	3.83
FF	37.69	36.18	1.50
FA	50.89	46.48	4.41
SF	26.73	25.58	1.16
SA	35.65	32.50	3.14
GF	2.47	2.04	0.43
GA	3.65	3.12	0.53
xGF	2.43	2.11	0.32
xGA	3.24	2.94	0.30
SCF	26.30	23.29	3.02
SCA	34.14	32.07	2.07
HDCF	9.02	8.44	0.58
HDCA	15.89	14.07	1.82

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If it even takes PK data into account then its garbage.

Honestly I don't even know how they came up with those numbers, because even in all situations, Bedard has 41GF 49GA, 8 goals short of a 50% GF%...

 

[TLEH]

My stance is that his usage has been extreme and this season has been so weird that drawing any sort of conclusion about what he "is" .. is quite difficult.

 

[joestevens29]

Since I have the stats up, I'll post the rest. Seems pretty clear that he's creating a lot of offense, but he also has a pretty significant negative impact defensively. He's a high event player, to be sure.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]5v5 Per 60[/TD]
[TD]With Bedard[/TD]
[TD]W/O Bedard[/TD]
[TD]Delta[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CF[/TD]
[TD]52.82[/TD]
[TD]51.03[/TD]
[TD]1.80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CA[/TD]
[TD]69.14[/TD]
[TD]65.31[/TD]
[TD]3.83[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FF[/TD]
[TD]37.69[/TD]
[TD]36.18[/TD]
[TD]1.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FA[/TD]
[TD]50.89[/TD]
[TD]46.48[/TD]
[TD]4.41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF[/TD]
[TD]26.73[/TD]
[TD]25.58[/TD]
[TD]1.16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA[/TD]
[TD]35.65[/TD]
[TD]32.50[/TD]
[TD]3.14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]2.04[/TD]
[TD]0.43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA[/TD]
[TD]3.65[/TD]
[TD]3.12[/TD]
[TD]0.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGF[/TD]
[TD]2.43[/TD]
[TD]2.11[/TD]
[TD]0.32[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]xGA[/TD]
[TD]3.24[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]0.30[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SCF[/TD]
[TD]26.30[/TD]
[TD]23.29[/TD]
[TD]3.02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SCA[/TD]
[TD]34.14[/TD]
[TD]32.07[/TD]
[TD]2.07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCF[/TD]
[TD]9.02[/TD]
[TD]8.44[/TD]
[TD]0.58[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HDCA[/TD]
[TD]15.89[/TD]
[TD]14.07[/TD]
[TD]1.82[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I think overall what the Hawks were able to give him was good for development. Far too many times rookies aren't necessarily able to be rookies. Hawks having little expectations the next couple years allows Connor to play his game and at least be confident that what worked in junior can translate to the NHL. Plenty of time later on to work on those defensive aspects that will make him a better all around player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think overall what the Hawks were able to give him was good for development. Far too many times rookies aren't necessarily able to be rookies. Hawks having little expectations the next couple years allows Connor to play his game and at least be confident that what worked in junior can translate to the NHL. Plenty of time later on to work on those defensive aspects that will make him a better all around player.

Totally agree. They weren't winning anything this year. Let him play his game and build his confidence offensively. The defensive zone stuff can come later, especially as he matures physically.

My stance is that his usage has been extreme and this season has been so weird that drawing any sort of conclusion about what he "is" .. is quite difficult.

View attachment 798853

Yeah he's already getting matchups like he's an elite player, which makes sense because the Hawks don't really have anyone to worry about besides him.