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The Race for the Calder Trophy

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ViD said:
Marchenko rookie year was also extremely impressive
Click to expand...

He's typically been seen as a quasi-top prospect. I'm more interested to see the mid-tier prospects from the KHL flourishing in the NHL.

Shows that the KHL is doing good.
 
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this is probably meaningless, because +/- stats is probably the worst in hockey but
and also its meaningless to the Calder race, but anyone think its a concern?
i noticed this Connor Bedard stat

his relative +/- is -29. in 21 games played, in 82 games, it would be -114

he has gotten 15 + marks from 15 even numbers points
but his +/- is -14*, so his relative +/- is -29
*-50 in 82 games, has any rookie (top rookie, or any rookie)
had a +/- of -50?

that is the worst in the NHL

2nd worst relative +/- Tomas Hertl -24
3rd worst relative +/- Mario Ferraro -23

both Sharks players

Hawks 2nd worst is Reichel, who's relative +/- is -21

If you look at rookies

Bedard -29
Fantilli -18
Lacombe -18
Korchinski -15
Cooley -11

I watched his last game and his defending on both of the goals
where he was on the ice when Red Wings scores, was just awful.
 
I always find it tough to place goalies in something like this but Joseph Woll has a .917 SV% and is 7th in the league for goals saved above expected rn

NHL Goalie Advanced Stats 2024-2025

NHL Goalie Analytics, Goals Saved Above Expected
moneypuck.com moneypuck.com

Definitely been one of the best Leafs this year, kept them in almost every game despite uninspired play in front of him.
 
Artorius Horus T said:
this is probably meaningless, because +/- stats is probably the worst in hockey but
and also its meaningless to the Calder race, but anyone think its a concern?
i noticed this Connor Bedard stat

his relative +/- is -29. in 21 games played, in 82 games, it would be -114

he has gotten 15 + marks from 15 even numbers points
but his +/- is -14*, so his relative +/- is -29
*-50 in 82 games, has any rookie (top rookie, or any rookie)
had a +/- of -50?

that is the worst in the NHL

2nd worst relative +/- Tomas Hertl -24
3rd worst relative +/- Mario Ferraro -23

both Sharks players

Hawks 2nd worst is Reichel, who's relative +/- is -21

If you look at rookies

Bedard -29
Fantilli -18
Lacombe -18
Korchinski -15
Cooley -11

I watched his last game and his defending on both of the goals
where he was on the ice when Red Wings scores, was just awful.
Click to expand...
I have noticed his +/- as well and wondered if it means anything.

By relative +/- you mean compared to his team median / average? That was always the point about Erik Karlsson last year, on a terrible team his +/- was much better than the team overall. In particular when looking at 5-on-5, ie not counting minuses when playing with an empty net.

For EK a point was also that if he doesn't try things offensively, the Sharks will simply not score.

These points could apply to Bedard as well. (I'm not here to "defend" EK, there are 5,000 other posts on that, but analytically those points are relevant ).
 
My3Sons said:
Luke Hughes is playing very very well as you've noted. Even at 50-55 points with continued good defense I'm skeptical he can overcome a 40 goal Berard season on a bad Chicago team. I won't be disappointed if Bedard finishes with 35+ goals and similar number of assists to win the award and Luke is second. Bedard was hyped for a reason and give him credit, he's living up to it. Luke is more than living up to his own hype and that's all that realistically matters for these young players in my view.
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The bar for Bedard to live up to the hype is Crosby and McDavid, and to some extent Ovechkin, though his hype was below Crosby, McDavid, and Bedard.

Look at their rookie seasons on bad teams and you'll see he's not necessarily living up to the hype. He may, it's just a quarter of a season yet.

(And of course the rookie season ultimately doesn't matter. E.g., Ovechkin has 9 Richards, who cares that he won the Calder when assessing him as a goal scorer even as he scored 52 goals, but a tad older due to the lockout. And McDavid.... And Crosby...)
 
Leksand said:
The bar for Bedard to live up to the hype is Crosby and McDavid, and to some extent Ovechkin, though his hype was below Crosby, McDavid, and Bedard.

Look at their rookie seasons on bad teams and you'll see he's not necessarily living up to the hype. He may, it's just a quarter of a season yet.

(And of course the rookie season ultimately doesn't matter. E.g., Ovechkin has 9 Richards, who cares that he won the Calder when assessing him as a goal scorer even as he scored 52 goals, but a tad older due to the lockout. And McDavid.... And Crosby...)
Click to expand...

Bedard is on a way worse team.

The Oilers had Hall, Eberle, Drai, RNH... defensively... yeah... but there was offensive talent around McDavid.

The Penguins had Recchi, Palffy, LeClair, etc. and Gonchar to run the PP.

Chicago's number two point scorer is Jason Dickinson.

Chicago is short a few Taylor Hall level vets in support of Bedard compared to what Crosby had... and Hall got hurt.

I'm not saying he is 1000% living up to the hype, but is really alone on that team more than Crosby and especially McDavid were.
 
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Leksand said:
The bar for Bedard to live up to the hype is Crosby and McDavid, and to some extent Ovechkin, though his hype was below Crosby, McDavid, and Bedard.

Look at their rookie seasons on bad teams and you'll see he's not necessarily living up to the hype. He may, it's just a quarter of a season yet.

(And of course the rookie season ultimately doesn't matter. E.g., Ovechkin has 9 Richards, who cares that he won the Calder when assessing him as a goal scorer even as he scored 52 goals, but a tad older due to the lockout. And McDavid.... And Crosby...)
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It's fair that the hype varies from place to place. I'm sure in Chicago the team is pushing him constantly which makes sense given where they are in a rebuild. In the US South it's basically just the odd mention on ESPN. Beyond that you have to go out of your way to look at hockey related media to see or hear about him and at that point you probably already know who he is and what the expectations are for him. I think he's playing very well for a teenager who was just drafted. As others have noted, he is ahead of where Jack Hughes was at roughly the same age so I'll give Bedard full credit. Overall it's looking to be a great rookie class and all the teams with a top player are probably happy to see their success.
 
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wintersej said:
Bedard is on a way worse team.

The Oilers had Hall, Eberle, Drai, RNH... defensively... yeah... but there was offensive talent around McDavid.

The Penguins had Recchi, Palffy, LeClair, etc. and Gonchar to run the PP.

Chicago's number two point scorer is Jason Dickinson.

Chicago is short a few Taylor Hall level vets in support of Bedard compared to what Crosby had... and Hall got hurt.

I'm not saying he is 1000% living up to the hype, but is really alone on that team more than Crosby and especially McDavid were.
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Re : "The Penguins had Recchi, Palffy, LeClair, etc. and Gonchar to run the PP."

And, don't forget, Mario came out of retirement.

Bedard has one of the worst teams I've seen around a potential superstar in a LONG time. Also, of his 18 points, ONLY 3 are on the PP. That's insane.

At the 1/4 mark, he deserves it.
 
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Luke also has the problem of being on a really good offensive team. If he scores 60 points some voters may chalk that up to playing with Jack (a top 3 offensive guy in the league) and honestly they are probably correct. Especially now that Luke is on pp1. Luke is gonna be amazing but jack is gonna make him look even better.
 
Jbcraig1883 said:
Faber playing 3 more min than everyone, facing top opposition, no PP time, and a +6 with 8 points definitely puts him up there.
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It definitely should. Unfortunately, solid defensive dmen are chronically underrated in hockey.

If you're a defenseman and want to compete for major awards and earn the big bucks, you're aim should be piling up points instead of playing responsible hockey.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
It definitely should. Unfortunately, solid defensive dmen are chronically underrated in hockey.

If you're a defenseman and want to compete for major awards and earn the big bucks, you're aim should be piling up points instead of playing responsible hockey.
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The PHWA is a joke, why do we tie the league's major awards to an organization that has zero requirements for hockey experience?
 
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wintersej said:
Bedard is on a way worse team.

The Oilers had Hall, Eberle, Drai, RNH... defensively... yeah... but there was offensive talent around McDavid.

The Penguins had Recchi, Palffy, LeClair, etc. and Gonchar to run the PP.

Chicago's number two point scorer is Jason Dickinson.

Chicago is short a few Taylor Hall level vets in support of Bedard compared to what Crosby had... and Hall got hurt.

I'm not saying he is 1000% living up to the hype, but is really alone on that team more than Crosby and especially McDavid were.
Click to expand...

ORRFForever said:
Re : "The Penguins had Recchi, Palffy, LeClair, etc. and Gonchar to run the PP."

And, don't forget, Mario came out of retirement.

Bedard has one of the worst teams I've seen around a potential superstar in a LONG time. Also, of his 18 points, ONLY 3 are on the PP. That's insane.

At the 1/4 mark, he deserves it.
Click to expand...

Actually, how do you measure how weak a team is? The Pens finished second to last with a 35.4 P% and Oilers second to last as well with 42.7 P%. Blackhawks currently second from the bottom and 33.3 P%.
 
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Leksand said:
Actually, how do you measure how weak a team is? The Pens finished second to last with a 35.4 P% and Oilers second to last as well with 42.7 P%. Blackhawks currently second from the bottom and 33.3 P%.
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Usually, for me, it's the eye test. When I watch Chicago, I am shocked how little help Bedard has.

TBH, I don't care about the Calder. Whoever deserves it most will win.

I just want Bedard to stay healthy - that's far more important than some silly piece of metal.
 
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ORRFForever said:
Usually, for me, it's the eye test. When I watch Chicago, I am shocked how little help Bedard has.

TBH, I don't care about the Calder. Whoever deserves it most will win.

I just want Bedard to stay healthy - that's far more important than some silly piece of metal.
Click to expand...
Absolutely
 
Voronkov steadily climbing the ladder. Another goal (almost 2 last night) 12p in 19gp(which puts him 6th in rookie scoring with less GP) with a whopping avg TOI of 12:43. He was also moved to center last game and excelled with Chinakov and Marchenko on his wings.

He's turning into a Russian Tom Wilson almost, with the potential to be a better scorer.
 
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